Tomorrow the Trump team arrives in Germany to participate in the Munich Security Conference, where they are expected to inform the Europeans of their plans to bring Project Ukraine to an end. No one knows what Trump is planning, but the Europeans are braced for bad news. That bad news is either a plan for peace brokered without them or a plan that hands the whole mess over to them. Team Trump had made clear that their first priority is accounting for the money.
As a general rule, anytime the guy giving the money starts making angry noises about accounting for the money, the guy receiving the money is in trouble. This type of scene is always part of gangster movies for a reason. It means the giver is unhappy with the receiver and has come to a conclusion about the arrangement that is going to be bad for the receiver. Imagine some DOGE kids stuffing Zelensky into a locker and you have a good idea of what is coming.
To make matters worse, Trump just had a long call with Putin and both sides described it in very positive language. There has been an exchange of prisoners, with Trump indicating the Russians asked for little in return. He was making clear that he understood their gesture and was ready to reciprocate. It is the sort of thing that is done when two sides are looking to build a larger relationship. You do small deals to build trust and develop a process for larger deals.
What is clear is that Trump has looked at his options with regards to Ukraine and did not see a deal worth pursuing. The Russians are not interested in anything but the deal they feel was done in Istanbul in 2022, plus some extra to cover the costs of litigating it on the battlefield for the last two years. They will get that deal either at the table or on the battlefield and there is nothing to be done to prevent them. Trump seems to understand this and accepts it.
Deal making always starts with discovery. You must first learn if there is a deal to be had, otherwise you are wasting your time. The number one rule in deal making in the private sector is that time is your most precious asset. The best salesmen maximize their time by not wasting time chasing bad business. For Trump, Project Ukraine, as constructed by his predecessor, is bad business. The goal now is to get this off the agenda as quickly as possible.
Most likely, the starting place this week is to inform the Europeans and Zelensky that the deal for them right now is Istanbul plus some other things. If they are ready to take that deal, then the Trump Team will hammer out the deal with the Russians and at some point, the Ukraine government will be invited in to sign it. Who the representative of that government is will be determined by elections to be held immediately. That means Zelensky will not be part of the signing ceremony.
This is why they are talking about the money. Imagine the bosses from Chicago coming out to Las Vegas to talk to the guy they sent out to oversee their operations, and their first question is, “Where’s our money?” Zelensky made the fatal mistake of saying he will never be able to account for it. That sealed his fate. There is simply no way Trump will do business with the guy. It now means any support requires elections and repayment of the money.
Like the guy who cannot pay in the gangster films, this leaves Zelensky and the Europeans in an impossible position, which is the point. Team Trump is prepared to work with the Russian on other issues, even if they cannot get a deal on Ukraine, so they are prepared to walk away from Ukraine entirely. If Europe wants to keep the United States engaged, then it means elections and an accounting of the hundreds of billions sent to Kiev over the last three years.
Now that the Trump plan is coming into focus, the girl boss running EU foreign policy issued a statement declaring the unconditional support for Ukraine. Not having come to grips with what is happening in Washington, she seems to think Team Trump will sit down with her to talk it out and come to a compromise. Instead, this will be used to justify handing the whole mess over to the Europeans so Trump can move onto matters far more important than Project Ukraine.
This is the other thing coming into focus. The war caused the Russians to rethink their relationship with Europe. They stopped taking calls from people like Macron and Schultz, because there was no point in speaking with them. The Chinese have gone out of their way to humiliate European leaders who turn up in Beijing. Men close their doors to the setting sun and that is what is happening to Europe. The emerging great powers of the new world order are ignoring Europe.
Now we are seeing Trump do the same thing. Vance was in Paris this week, in advance of the Munich meeting, and he told the Europeans in no uncertain terms how things are going to be going forward. They were properly offended, and that was most certainly the point of his speech. Friday, the Trump delegation is going to tell the Europeans how it is going to be with regards to Ukraine. If they do not like it, they can go it alone, but everyone knows they lack the ability to do it.
It is proof that the universe has a sense of humor. Four years ago, the Eurocrats were congratulating themselves along with Biden people, telling each other stories about the new world order and how they would build back better. Now, the guy they thought they had vanquished will be telling them their place in the new world order. The guy building back better, will be the guy they were sure was the final boss in their quest to spread the managerial revolution around the globe.
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I have nothing to add, but…Munich, man. Really. Did it have to be Munich, of all the cities in Europe? Trump is Hitler, Putin is also Hitler, and now the one Hitler is going to be “appeasing” the other Hitler… in Munich. We will never hear the end of it.
On the other hand, perhaps it was chosen for just that reason. In Munich the disaster of the 20th century was coddled and fortified. Perhaps the symbolism is that this is a ceremonial breaking of the spell on the ground where it was cast. That was then. This is now. The 21st century has begun, and its great task is to undo the 20th. It started in Munich. It ends in Munich.
Food for thought.
I don’t know that to have been the intended effect, but it is the reality. The conference location will mark the end of the post-World War II consensus. Western idiots will try to frame it as a repeat of the last big event there, but it is the final chapter of the OG. The GAE is downsizing, and it will be a better world for both the Europeans and the North Americans–the actual people rather than the clown leadership–as a result. Ukraine was the greatest self-own of recent history. It would be amusing but/for the hundreds of thousands of casualties.… Read more »
Yes. It is ending now. We are living through the closing of the books on the Cold War, at long last. By 2028 it will be for us old men to sit around and reflect upon. I’ve waited for these times since 1991-2.
Amen.
It’s great but I also reflect on the waste of lives and resources in the last thirty years. It’s infuriating. I would love for those responsible to be punished but that does not seem to be in the cards.
Yes, I was a Pat Buchanan staffer for two of his campaigns, and was right there at the beginning in NH in December 1991 as he walked in the snows outside of Manchester NH factories that are now lofts for Boston-based power couples. After 9/11 I understood that any hopes I had for the future of the US would be dashed much later in life, unfortunately, when I likely to be at my physical weakest in some hospital with Belize-tier standards in the 2050s. This is all I have left, basically. Tomorrow night I may buy some great beer from… Read more »
Yes. In this sense with modern communication we have the ability to give the optic its meaning. This is the whitepill if you will of the time and the opportunity we have been given. You define the optic as the 21st century has finally begun knowing that an oligarch has used this exact phrase and expressed it as a good. (Peter Theil) This gets around and you tag Theil and Musk … … If they see it and endorse it, we, not the GAE Regime have given it the symbolic meaning. This is the beauty of what is happening now.… Read more »
I’ve been reluctant to make any definitive statements on it until now, but the last three weeks have been a sea change.
Munich was inevitable because Britain and its allies had no ability to defend the Sudetenland, which was ethnic German anyway…As usual, Europeans wanted an outsider to defend their interests…
Nice…!
The Munich Security Conference has been around since the 1960s; I first heard of it in a Len Deighton novel. You’re right about it probably being past its “sell by” date.
I must admit, I was going to make a joke about it too, but I wanted to keep it serious. My Lord. The universe does have a sense of humor.
did you notice they also released a group statement titled “Weimar+”?! talk about on the nose…
Link please. That is amazing.
Maybe this finally closes the 20th century. Let’s hope.
That’s my thought. It will be seen in time as the final chapter of the post-World War II consensus rather than a repeat of the OG. The court historians no longer have a lock on the framing.
Yep. The 20th century is over when the loons scream “Hitler! Munich! Hitler!” and everyone just laughs or, even better, no one even notices because no one is listening to them.
Most people under 40 outside the small number who are hyperpolitical now respond with “who is Hitler?” Policy, always a lagging indicator, is just now catching up to the political and social reality.
We even still talk about H-man because WWII is the public obsession of largely the Boomer generation. That’s even to the expense of the Vietnam War, which by rights should be what they talk about. Gen X generally has not sought out alternative thoughts, although most of them are more indifferent to the topic.
Forgetting the past isn’t exactly a good idea, so long as it’s really the past, and not the mythology. Even mythology serves a purpose, but like @Zman said not too long ago, ripping down Chesterton’s Fence has consequences. The lessons of a Great War with a 20-year cease fire must not be lost, particularly with modern weaponry.
When I was a boy in the fifties, somebody polled American children about who were America’s greatest enemies. The hands down winners: Germany and Japan. All those WWII movies did the trick.
Really? Y’all were hiding under your desks from the nips and the krauts? And you never once doubted that, despite all the newsreel footage of Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima, etc.?
My standard joke is that Hitler is the most popular politician in American history. Why? Because the Dems have been running against him for eighty years.
Exactly my first thought. That was deliberate on some Eurofag’s part. I would have insisted the meeting be held someplace without those historical connotations, anyplace rather than that cursed city. If I were in charge, I would have held the negotiations on board a USN warship, if only to humiliate the Eurofags and also keep the media whores off the ship, because if there’s one thing that is sure to happen, is media whores trying to turn it into a circus.
Any schadenfreude they gain will be quickly lost. This is their appointment with reality and with someone who is head and shoulders above them. For someone who has the onerous task of rubbing shoulders with globalists on a daily basis, I can’t wait to see their faces ground into the midden.
We call them Eurofags they call us Ameriniggers.
Eighteen years ago, at the Munich Security Conference, Putin gave his important speech.
Munich is where the security conference is traditionally held — this one will be the 61st. That it was a stronghold for the Nazis and Hitler’s favorite city is purely coincidence. The neocons will probably draw some parallel with Chamberlain’s famous statement in Munich in 1938 about “peace in our time” and equate Trump with Chamberlain.
If the neocons are equating someone with Chamberlain, that means it’s Thursday. Or Monday. Or any other day of the week.
There must’ve been a reason I was watching Man In The High Castle clips and reminiscing about a better world that might have been…
It’s a conundrum. The mythic imagery of Whiteness™—slavery and Auschwitz—originates as much in pornography as reality, so If you’re not making something truly sleazy you’re mishandling the material. You’re hiding the true horror of it or lost in sentimentality or whatever. There’s never been an artistically good Holocaust or slavery movie—in which those things actually appear. So what to show? Whiteness circa WW2—which everybody likes. Art deco, pretty blonde, tended lawn, fitted suit, sidewalk without turds (or persons of turd) on it, etc. With ominous music. The original novel, which has a different idea than being “antifascist”—anti-German or anti-Japanese at… Read more »
The actual Nazi stronghold was Nuremberg.
Thank you – that was my recollection as well.
The mythology surrounding Munich, Churchill and Auschwitz are the three legs upon which the creaky boomer truth regime rests.
They were going to use Compiègne, France.
Until someone found out the railway coach wasn’t there. 🤦♂️
I won’t worry too much about someone holding up a piece of paper and proclaiming “Peace for our Time” either.
Interesting comment. It’s always fun to put on the historian’s hat and scream about old ghosts coming back to haunt us. But the world has irrevocably changed. Consider: Hitler’s Revenge is now complete. Western powerhouses are now under the thumb of the international jewry. Opposing them will be the so-called BRICS. Europe has undermined itself for half a century, and we here in North America for at least half that. Russia is no longer a backward country of rural peasants and farmers. Nor are the Chinese. In the Middle East and the Arab world, formidable enemies are rising and uniting… Read more »
Maybe they just wanted to catch a Bayern game and see Harry Kane score…
Shame the Burgerbräukeller no longer exists or they could have the meeting there! ;<)
Maybe we’re at the end of WWII/Holocaust Narrative? Is Hitler now up for review? Or will he always be the one-testicled, gay, half-Jew, rejected by jewish girls for dates, blood thirsty monster who wanted to conquer the world and gas jews with masturbating bears and eagles inside a lampshade?
Shoot, I forgot art school reject, hiring the Red SKull to put jews on electrified roller coasters, and being the original super-villain of the DC and Marvel Universes!
1. Don’t you love whoever writes all those statements coming out of the EU? They use such hackneyed English … “Unconditional support” … “ever closer union.” It’s kind of Orwellian in a way. 2. Don’t you just love how US foreign policy changes with every administration. One administration bumbles into a war, the next one pulls out. Kind of like what Republicans always complained about before except now we are the ones pulling out. Don’t get me wrong, I am all for pulling out. 3. With USAID money drying up, perhaps that will put an end to the neocon military… Read more »
So many Hitlers…according to the Shiites, Trump is the 12th Hitler.
It really is remarkable how tone deaf and unable to read the tea leaves so many of these European leaders are – to say nothing of the libtards in the US. The game has changed, there’s a new sheriff in town and they can’t deal it, but will be forced to. On a related note, I see a “peaceful asylum seeking migrant” has plowed into another crowd of Germans. It’s hard to believe the AfD isn’t at 50% by now..:
Germans are broken people, mentally abused from the moment they are born. It’s difficult to wake up from that. And even then, their best option is AfD, a party that has been mostly neutered.
The irony of Germany is that their quest to atone for their crimes and completely destroy their identity will probably lead to the return of forces very similar to those of the guy with the little moustache.
Boo hiss
What crimes
So be it.
From your mouth to God’s ears.
Problem is they have WWII & the Holocaust shoved in their faces every five minutes from the moment they’re borne! Guilty! Guilty! Guilty! Atone – atone for your sins!!! It’s a mantra. Know I’ve made this point before here but reading between the lines of WWII histories, the Allies were so thoroughly humiliated by German prowess in the military arts (knocking out France in 6wks, kicking Britain out of Europe 4x – Dunkirk, Norway, Greece, {& Dieppe in 1942} then inflicting 3.5 million casualties on The Red Army in as many months ’having advance units in the town of Astrakhan… Read more »
I think you’re right. My niece lives in Germany and she mentioned that her young kids really get “holocaust education” drilled into them a lot at school. She’s a complete normie, and thinks it’s extremely excessive.
We wondered when we wandered away from reality…
I’ll tell you when.
The entire latter half of the 20th Century was a vast fantasia to hide the Great Lie that the adrenochrome peddlers could never dare admit to.
Why not help her to flip the script of Holocaustianity? Your niece and the kids could start with Simon Wiesenthal’s five million myth, then move on to an exposition of many shrill newslaper headlines and reports about this and that six million Jews allegedly at risk. The latter pattern began in the late 1860’s or 1870’s, although I think that the 6m figure has been cited in the context of Simon Bar Kochba’s revolt. At one point, it was alleged that 10m innocent Jews were killed during the war to make Evrope safe for Jewish power in Palestine. Somehow, as… Read more »
I did ask her if the schools teach the kids about Dresden, which she replied with a confused look….what?
If there’s any justice in this world, “holocaust education” will someday include inconvenient math and facts, allowing the Germans to reclaim their pride and heritage. But of course, sunlight must first penetrate the propaganda.
I suspect their “Holocaust education” is the equivalent of our continued indoctrination wrt slavery in our past. It works to demoralize the White population and render them impotent in political discourse and decision making. You can substitute White for German in most of the above commentary and apply it to us.
They are indeed a broken people. I was in Germany last summer and every tour guide groveled about being German and well you know who was German too. It was disgusting to see a once proud and strong people reduced to this from years of public education and media propaganda. I met one Austrian tour guide who wasn’t ashamed of his genetic heritage and it was in stark contrast to all of the others. You can’t hate the media and public educators enough!
The attitude is just the inverse of open pride. It’s not humility. They still aren’t forgetting themselves to forgive their own mistakes and be human. No, they are slaves for the moment to “ruining the world”, which sounds a lot like they were and still are in charge.
For the record, I don’t want to see Germans like that. They should have the healthy sort of pride that comes with with nation and family, one of God’s many creations. Unfortunately, Northern Europeans still are bitten by a pride that is destructive.
It would be interesting to take the common German and educate him on just how many of his fellow countrymen from America (literally millions) fought against him in WWII. Germans are not inherently evil or bad. They took a wrong turn in WWII, but to say that it is inherent, or of the “blood”, is pure propaganda set on demoralization and destruction of a great nation.
Mustache Man just made a bad strategic decision. He should not have declared war on the US in response to Dec 7. Rather just let FDR know that how US and Japan work out the Pacific is fine with Germany. If MM had said he would pressure Japan to focus on Indonesia and SE Asia and leave the greater Pacific alone, that would have been a hard deal to turn down, particularly if those details became known to the public.
We can Monday morning quarterback moustache man, but he still perceived the world more accurately than anyone else.
Depends on what you mean by that. If you include his autarky and state control of all the things lunacy, no. Granted it would have been Germany’s downfall anyway, but Germans would have suffered longer than they did.
“state control of all the things lunacy”
No normal legacy German was inhibited in the least. Only the subversives felt threatened.
Oh, so the Junkers didn’t lose their aircraft factory?
Germans have been broken badly and bounced back for centuries. It was humiliated in the Franco-Prussia war almost as badly as the world wars and was a leading power half a century later, and before that was knocked on its heels by Napoleon, and before that survived almost half a century of religious wars. Propaganda allowed this slap down to go on longer but in time, if the demographic war is won, Germany will rebound. Demographics are destiny.
Seems like you need a history lesson. Germany won the Franco-Prussian war!
Germany didn’t exist as a united nation during Napoleon’s time: it was the Prussian military which played a vital role in his defeat.
I do! That was a brainfart.
As a german myself, i want to say that there is a lot of truth to it. But there are also a lot of people (myself included), who were never members of the cult of guilt and shame. There are a lot of people in the younger generation, which are fed up to the hilt with the Reductio ad Hitlerum. But you don’t see them on the official news channels. I’m quite hopeful for the future of the Vaterland. Germania will rise again. And i’m thankful for Trump, the destroyer of the old order.
This is the Davos and CNN effect. The same folks sit in Davos BS-ing each other. They are very disconnected from reality. Meanwhile, you have a generation in Europe that has grown up watching CNN. I regularly meet senior European financial and business executives who have a Scarsdale housewife’s view of American politics. I’ve said here before that it will take generational change to fundamentally alter European politics. We’re seeing this in real time.
“A Scarsdale housewifes view of American politics.” 🤣 you could not have picked a demographic more deserving of scorn and derision!
if i were trump (or putin) i would make the eu reps serve drinks and clear plates, at the meeting. but not let them talk. the baltic chihuahuas would provide entertainment via skits and tumbling. honestly, just humiliate the shit out of these deluded poseurs.
oh, and i would hold the uk responsible for repaying all US costs re; ukraine. that country really needs to be slapped down hard; make them give us Windsor castle (put it in Disney World). and to think i used to be an anglophile.
Before you take Windsor you might think about taking back California and Texas.Or New York,Chicago,L.A. etc.
The UK is not responsible for the Ukraine war. Victoria Nuland is your compatriot, not mine.
Also, the idea that the EU is driving the “Managerial Revolution” rather than the permanent bureaucracy in Washington is an interesting take.
The UK needs a good slapping no matter what.
It’ll be for their own good. Starmer has maybe the most “face needing slapped” I’ve ever seen.
Backpfeifgesicht, isn’t it?
(“A face begging for a fist”)
On the list of who bears responsibility for the Ukraine war, the UK is in fact pretty high, even if they aren’t #1.
Correct. How can they avoid responsibility when they played the role of such a willing accomplice to American shenanigans in the region?
The City of London owns this one. Obviously the same types/tribe in D.C. were fully onboard and supplied the grease but the dark underbelly of Britain bears major responsibility here. The same was true to a lesser degree with Iraq when the evil Blair had a hapless and stupid W at his disposal. All of us do need to concentrate on our home countries but confession is good for the soul, as they once said long ago in a confident West. A return to that West if it is at all possible is the only thing that matters.
A return to that [confident] West if it is at all possible… Sure it’s possible, but it would be a fool’s voyage. The social and political foundations of the old regime were intrinsically unstable because false. The confidence was unearned, as it always is when dependent upon obvious lies and a great guilt trip. The modern state of Israel has very much the same legitimacy problem given the lies and guilt trip used to establish it and to perpetuate it. Wrecking the confidence of its confused enthusiasts is a necessary task here. If you find the people whom we call… Read more »
remind me again which country sent their PM to turkey to scuttle peace talks in 2022? also, you owe us for burning down the original White House.
You also owe us for not burning the new one down in 2021…
Morning Z. A little errata in paragraph two: “has come to a concussion about the arrangement” I have to say I appreciate and admire the work you put into making this blog. You have been doing it consistently for a long time at a high level of quality. Well done. I caught a clip of Hegseth in Europe yesterday. He got straight to the point with the pillow biters and fem bots. For me, his reasoning for putting Europe on its own, with responsible disengagement, was that America needs to protect its homeland. I pray that this means not what… Read more »
Could it be we are entering the “strong men create good times” phase of the cycle?
Im cautiously optimistic, as are most of the posters here. We will know things are really progressing when Hegseth responds to a gotcha question from the press with “Back Satan”!
We haven’t even had the hard times yet
But regardless, we’ve really not seen any significant, nor lasting results of the BOM rein. Hopeful signs sure, but nothing that approaches a substantive fix. All these things have yet to mature and solidify. The signs are promising, but only time will tell.
Hegseth is also a Christian Zionist with a blindness towards Zionist Israel.
He is a decent man, while wearing a eye patch that might cause him to fall down some stairs.
Hegseth is dazed and confused, like commenter ray, the one who ran away like a timid little dog to Latin America long before the shoe of Christian crusading was on the other foot in Anglophone North America. (Note: The shoe is still not on the other foot.) Much good could be done for Hegseth’s mental disorder through a massive movement of truth through the ranks and files of enlisted personnel in every service branch. The object is a public beatdown of him and several of his dirty, rotten officers.
To me Hegseth is the worst pick of them all. I’ve always thought of him as a bumbling fool, another talking head tough guy who loves reminding everyone what a badass he is, while being an absolute tool. Beyond that though, he will be in no way a reformer, which is exactly what the DoD needs. Yes, get rid of DIE and the woke nonsense, that is great, but the DoD needs a buzzsaw taken to its core, and Hegseth is not the guy to do it. I’m becoming concerned that Trump will not be either, as it appears he’s… Read more »
Think about the Pentagon as if it were a business. Because it is.
You don’t need a reformer as CEO to reform a company. You just need a CEO to hire consultants who come in and make the recommendations for reform.
The same for your fears about Trump. He wants an effective military, which is not what we have.
The only deal the Russians will do will be after they’ve taken at either all of Ukraine or, at the very least, the part of it East of the Dnieper and including Odessa. Then they will hand them a bit of paper and a pen and say “This is where you sign”. The Russians are done with us.
“The Russians are done with us.”
If they are smart. Putin is smart, however all depends if Russia is weakened by the conflict more than let on. I doubt, but who knows?
I’m quite fuzzy on the details, but didn’t our Navy place itself uninvited in Sevastapol on the Black Sea? If so, possible bargaining chip.
Sometime after the Maidan there was a contract proposal circulated by the Pentagram for improving the facilities at the Russian base there after Russia was kicked out and the USN and NATO were invited in. We never had anything there, we were just greedy and gave the game away too soon.
The Russians have said as much. Earlier this week one of Lavrov’s deputies basically said, paraphrasing:
“It is all well and good to have a dialogue with the Americans, we are in favor of such talks. The truth is how can we make any substantial security agreements with the Americans or Europeans when we know they are agreement incapable?”
I take that to mean you can’t make deals with liars. I think most of the negotiations by the Russians will be on the battlefield.
No doubt, Putin has the winning hand, but there is much to be said for not humiliating your opponent.
I hope Trump tells the Euros it’s their problem. “We’ve got our own problems and we’re broke. Good luck to ya.” Then Putin offers the Euros a deal that won’t humiliate them.
Unfortunately, it seems the Euros are insane, so they might not take the deal, and might well get the humiliation they so richly deserve.
Ughhh. I’m up in Canada, surrounded by clueless morons that think Orange Man Bad is going to invade us and make us into the 51st State. I’m not kidding either – most of them think we could militarily push the evil Americans back, storm across the border and burn down the Whitehouse just like we did in 1812. 😖 But first we have to kick your asses in this trade war! Yep – we’re all gonna BOYCOTT you stupid Americans and FORCE you into penury and submission!!! THAT’LL learn ya!!! Learn ya REAL good!!! Some idiot seriously proposed giving America… Read more »
My Canadian relatives routinely displayed an inferiority/little brother complex about the US. It seems like they can’t account for a)better weather, b)more natural resources, and c) a way bigger population from some very productive founding stock. For some reason Canada was supposed to be just like big brother and taken very seriously on the world stage.
It appears what was mostly a rude argument inside a family has become a society self delusion. They are about ready to find out it appears.
You should point out how Canada has been invaded, just like the US! Only I think I think it’s worse in Canada when adjusted for population. Americans and Canadians should team up and clean both countries out.
That joke about burning down our fucking white house negates any good feelings about Canadians who still have a dumbass king as their head of state. Our national anthem celebrates our fight against the monarchist north. Let those fucking snowbird Ontario douchebags try again and they’ll get the same treatment as that loser pakenham who died for “king” in Louisiana.
Collectively, the EU has a GDP that dwarfs Russia and has significantly more manpower (450 million people vs. 165 million).
There is no reason NATO, which is primarily manned and paid for by the US to exist.
“Keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in” needs to be updated to the true underlying reality:
“Look Europe, we’re done spending treasure and manpower keeping you from murdering each other. Knock yourself out.”
Next time the UK and France want to team up against Russia and Germany, we’ll get the highlights from X. If we care.
What kind of “manpower”? What is the GDP measuring?
It makes me think domestically where if those metrics were one-to-one then we’d be beating Russia on the battlefield with our fleets of heavily financed taco trucks.
The EUSSR has one huge problem that limits any reindustrialization and military buildup.
That problem is – No cheap energy.
We didn’t keep them from murdering each other. We de facto disarmed them, leaving them wide open to migrant conquest. We might as well have gone house-to-house first, rather than waiting for USAID fronts to get it done for us. Let me explain that sentence- the reason for funding arcane projects like studying trans parakeets in Madagascar. That is actually funneling money to radical niche groups likely to vote the way we want them to, under cover of a pet cause. Done for the purpose of destabilizing or influencing elections, for reasons either commercial (Pepsi-Cola bottling in Allende’s Chile) or… Read more »
“Imagine some DOGE kids stuffing Zelensky into a locker and you have a good idea of what is coming.”
A locker? Or the plastic lined trunk of a Lincoln Continental?
Whenever Trump talks about Ukraine money I think about the scene where they collected money from Maury the wig maker.
Maury thought he was a deal-maker. He should have stuck to managing his gambling habit.
The Europeans did basically nothing for the duration of this conflict. But of course they will want to be included in any decision for a peace proposal so they can virtue signal to the world how wonderful they all are.
Starting with that miserable excuse for an EU President, followed by the various and loud mouths and do nothings across Europe. EU ‘leadership’ is really nothing more than a human centipede.
I’m pretty sure Trump’s deal is going to be the same as the dinner choices my mother gave me growing up as a kid…
Take it or Leave it!
I don’t think so. Not if he listens to his advisors. Tulsi will push for peace, and Hegseth will probably at least tell him we can’t take Russia. Not now, maybe not ever again.
I’m surprised that the Russian would take the Istanbul plus a little on top deal. I’d think after three years of brutal fighting, they’d want a lot more. I would have thought that the Russians would want all of eastern Ukraine to have the river as a natural buffer along with a demilitarized and neutral Ukraine.
Would the Russians really settle for just the Donbas at this point?
It is a good question. The Russians do not want land populated with mostly Ukrainians, as they see that is a long term problem, not dissimilar to what the Israelis face with the occupied territories. The four oblasts that they claim now, are Russian. They could demand everything east of the Dnipre, including Odessa, but they may settle for less if they get everything else they want. My guess here is the Russians see two possibilities. One is Trump fails to get the Europeans and Ukraine to agree to a deal at that point he walks away and leaves the… Read more »
Yeah, the Russians have made it clear that they don’t want to rule over non-Russian areas. However, they also need a security on the ground. Tough spot.
The Russians also have made a lot of noise about Odessa being a Russian city. However, Putin has to keep an eye on domestic public opinion. It sounds like the Russian people are in no mood for a weak deal when they’re winning on the ground.
Finally, there’s Ukr. I agree that Trump would be happy to just walk away if the Ukrainians won’t play ball. That’s not a loss for him.
I don’t think the Russians are so concerned about security as they are about taking care of fellow Russians in lands that are historically Russian.
But I’m not Russian, so I am only guessing. Whatever happens, it will be interesting and can’t be any worse than the current situation.
Unfreezing of assets and normalization of trade would be two huge scores for Russia that might make up for some concessions.
Somewhat. But Russia’s economy is now growing at 4.5%. The sanctions leverage might not be as much as people think.
I think the longest and most negative fallout for the West will be how the war revealed it no longer can sanction a country into compliance. Russia took a hit but survived with little damage. The United States as a safe place to invest was thrown into question and Switzerland shit its bed in that regard.
The sanctions lifting seems a must. It is the sine qua nons of a true peace between Russia and Ukraine (the West). If Putin fails to demand such, then he admits to weakness in the eyes of his Western and home adversaries, which includes Trump (from official pronouncements directly from Trump).
Such agreements may be done “unofficially”, but Russia was fooled before so that avenue may not be available this time.
Just imagine the reaction if Trump started the negotiations with, “OK, what concessions are you willing to accept if we lift sanctions, the US backs out of NATO, and you get everything east of the Dnieper plus Odessa?”
The knockout blow to win the media war and the moral high ground is to demand removal of the biowarfare labs, under international supervision.
The West needs Russia if we’re to contain China. From what I understand, the “no-limits partnership” of Russia and China is quite strained. With Russia on “Team West,” China is much more contained.
Our leadership needs to come to terms with the fact that Russia is not the Soviet Union and is a natural part of Europe. How this could be done I do not know.
China and Russia have never been closer.
Russia has never been a natural part of Europe, right down to being Christianized by the Greeks, rather than the Latins. They are Caucasian, but they quite used to dealing with the neighbor to the East.
Kiev should be part of Russia too. Only the western third should remain as a buffer state, with the capital in Lvov.
The Russians have insisted all along that Ukraine be “denazified”. What that means to them is that it be purged of the Banderites. In practical terms doesn’t it mean that they control whatever regime is put into place in Kiev?
Yes.
Thank you.
They have to have some amount of war fatigue themselves. It’s been 3 years. Longer really
A few points:
1) They learned from us. Occupying hostile populations is expensive and futile
2) They have to consider China’s opinion. China wants this mess to end. India does too.
3) They won. They broke the German economy. They made the future cost of messing with Russia unbearably high.
All true. Related to your third point, and the aspect that will have the longest impact, Russia withstood Western sanctions and showed them to be somewhat irrelevant now. Russia felt some squeeze but not all that much. Also, the United States as a safe place to invest is now seen as dubious, and Switzerland shit the bed in that regard. The United States and the dollar remain the economic focus of the world but the Ukraine war showed that has limits and will end sooner than was assumed.
The Germans broke the German economy.
Citizen-
I tend to agree.
Strategically and territorially, Istanbul still seems like a loss for Russia. In 1991 Ukraine was still well-inside the Russian sphere of influence.
Additionally, there is no guarantee Vance wins in 2028. What if Trump rebuilds the US military and they manage to install Newsom or Whitmer in 2028?
I’d hope the rebuilt .mil remember that they swore an oath to the Constitution, not to the (P)resident.
Putin would be a fool to deal honestly with President Trump. Trump may be an honest broker looking for a win-win with Russia/Putin, but America isn’t. America’s signature isn’t worth the paper it’s not printed on. We will hold up our end of the bargain for exactly as long as it serves the managerial elite to uphold it. The minute it becomes advantageous to rip up the treaty, we will renege.
Exactly. Putin is no dummy. He has hard liners he is holding back. Any “peace” deal has little to nothing to do with Ukraine. He’s got just about everything he wants directly from Ukraine. Peace treaty is really between Russia and the West. Putin is not going to settle for a peace deal where there continues to be an undeclared war between Russia and the West via sanctions and such.
I’m pretty sure that there will be no deal, because there’s no reason for the Russians to make any concessions, and it’s better politically for Trump to just walk away and leave the collapse to the Europeans…The Istanbul deal was a bad deal, like the Minsk treaties, and Putin can’t do any more of those, because the Russian public and Security Council won’t allow them…
Russia gets Ukraine (or as much of as they want). US gets a cut of rare earths or $$ back from Zelensky & crew. EU gets its cheap Russian gas. Win win win.for the most part, what Russia would get when it wins the war, but we can call it a “deal” to save face.
“That bad news is either a plan for peace brokered without them or a plan that hands the whole mess over to them.”
I wouldn’t mind being a fly on the wall listening to the Europeans getting their orders from the Americans on what precisely they are going to say and do. They have no agency in this interaction between the USA and Russia. They are expendable fodder. Buffer states. I can’t help feeling some schadenfreude at the discomfiture of Starmer, Macron, Scholz, and von der Leyen. They are going to take it up their rear ends without lube.
Me, I’m waiting for the NATO audit by DOGE.
I’d suggest Ms Kaja “Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity are unconditional” Kallas grab a Ukrainian flag, bare her breasts and lead the glorious charge to martyrdom. I’m sure Vlad is shaking in his boots.
My only real question is if they will take another one of those ridiculous group pictures they take every time they have one of their supposedly consequential get togethers, but this time with Trump
Well at least they don’t have to worry about the President shitting himself or wandering off like a child at the photo session this time…
“…and has come to a concussion about the arrangement that is going to be bad for the receiver.”
Clever, in context.
This happy hopeful version of The Z Man is really throwing me for a loop.
Me too, Tom.
Just one thing worries me – the Middle East.
Wars that never end there could unravel all the wonderful progress we are making domestically. Even the Ukraine war is winding down. The ME could be Trump’s Covid or his Waterloo.
The successes we have seen so far could all be tragically undone if we get entangled in Middle Eastern wars.
zman, did you see this: https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/swamp-apocalypse-wednesday-february
ties in with your recent posts on defunding the blob. strongly recommended to all commenters here…
A pessimistic scenario: Europe and Ukraine decide to “go it alone”, as much to avoid financial and political accountability as anything else. European “peacekeepers” enter Ukraine, and are inevitably drawn into conflict with Russian troops. Russia eventually attacks logistical nodes in Poland and elsewhere, and/or European naval units in the Black Sea.
Europe invokes Article V, and the United States is faced with either war with Russia or breaking the NATO Alliance.
do you really think the US military is going to let the nutless eu peanuts wag the dog? far more likely the US leaves nato under that scenario
Yep. And we dominate the market in popcorn.
Breaking NATO would clearly be lesser evil, but its demise would still represent a categorical loss of US power and prestige, and a third great war in Europe would be a catastrophe for the White race.
“[NATO’s] demise would still represent a categorical loss of US power and prestige…”
I already said I was in favor. You don’t have to sell me on it.
Seriously, though, as I reflect on the post-war order, and particularly post cold-war order, I’m not seeing that all that power and prestige was a good thing.
Three more awesome proposals by the Donald I’d love to see:
01 to pull out from NATO; (hey, France did it in 1966)
02 Withdrawal from the UN; (and kicking it out of NYC)
03 Renaming the Washington football team the ‘Redskins’.
Crank it to 11, Mr President, and keep it there.
Like all “international law,” Article V is a fantasy. If Turkey and Israel go at it, does anyone really think NATO will have Erdoğan’s back?
Vincent Borelli: Wait a minute. You mean to tell me that the money we’re robbing is bein’ robbed? That somebody’s robbing from us? We go through all this fckin’ trouble, and somebody’s robbin’ us?
Remo Gaggi: Eh?
John Nance: Like I said, you know, it’s part of the business. It’s considered leakage.
Americo Cappelli: Leakage my balls,I want the guy who’s robbin us.
Nicky Santoro: You know, I think you got the wrong impression about me. I think in all fairness, I should explain to you exactly what it is that I do. For instance tomorrow morning I’ll get up nice and early, take a walk down over to the bank and… walk in and see and, uh… if you don’t have my money for me, I’ll… crack your fucking head wide open in front of everybody in the bank. And just about the time that I’m coming out of jail, hopefully, you’ll be coming out of your coma. And guess what? I’ll… Read more »
the guys inside the senate appropriations committee were all slipped in there to skim the joint dry
Maybe now Europe can find some way to unite in some post-American order.
“has come to a *concussion*”. auto-spell strikes again.
Musk’s update is laying it on the line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4LOoxK4j4A
We are going to have a lot of people free to pick tomatoes. We may find out if there are jobs that Americans wouldn’t do, or didn’t have to do.
Unfortunately, the fields needing picked and the slaughterhouses needing cleaned are not close by this labor surplus of punks and women. Thinking of them fighting over shift manager positions for Starbucks and Panda Express is amusing.
To take the Chicago example a bit further, is Zelensky the Bugsy Seigel character? Is so ……..!!
If the author’s take on the situation is correct, than I cannot help but be disgusted with the duplicitous blame shifting the Trump faction is engaged in.(I refuse to believe Trump is is anything other than a front man for one faction of the ruling elite) This whole Ukraine mess was a plan that originated in the US, and now the blame is being foisted on the EU and the hapless and inept Zelensky. Unless the ruling elite in America is not changed, another variation of this mess will happen again, perhaps somewhere else, or maybe Ukraine again.Anybody who takes… Read more »
Got news for you. Even if the “ruling elite” were changed, it’s going to happen again anyway. Any system that allows one to exercise power is going to result in self-selection of people who enjoy doing so, and, as with any other gang, the worst of the worst are going to end up wielding that power.
You need to think somewhat larger.
Here’s a quite different take:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/double-decker-special-hysteria-ignites
“This is clearly a step back rather than forward, and the desperate meaningless Putin conversation was likely the patch-up job meant to give the appearance that Trump’s big brawny peace initiative was still proceeding.”