The Ukraine Game

The professional commentators and amateur experts have been highly critical of the Trump foreign policy, but despite his unorthodox approach, Trump seems to be making progress that those experts claimed was impossible. The recent trip to the GCC countries is the most recent example. Lost in the shuffle is Iran stating they are ready to do a deal with Trump on their nuclear program. Today, the Russians and Ukrainian will meet in Istanbul to talk peace.

This meeting is remarkable mostly because a key element to Project Ukraine from the start was that there could be no negotiations with Russia. Without saying it, the Biden admin and the Europeans would only accept the unconditional surrender of Russia and even then, the terms would be harsh. The Ukrainians were happy to say the quiet part out loud, going so far as to declare it unlawful to deal with the Russians. In a few months Trump has them talking in Turkey.

It may be dumb luck that has got Trump to this point. A week ago, the Europeans were scheming with Zelensky on a set of ultimatums. The Russians either surrender and withdraw from Ukraine or else. On top of that, Keith Kellogg was peddling his scheme to insert Western troops into Ukraine as part of a peace keeping force. The Russians offered to meet with the Ukrainians in Istanbul and Trump seized on this to pressure Zelensky to agree to talks with the Russians.

Again, it may be dumb luck, but success is mostly about making the most of the available opportunities and Trump took advantage of the Russian offer to get something that everyone agreed was never happening. Again, not talking to the Russians has been a central pillar of Project Ukraine. It is the key to keeping the project running and that pillar has been toppled. Even if the talks do not produce much of anything immediately, this meeting changes everything.

The main thing it changes is it forces Zelensky and his European backers to abandon their maximalist position. Once you agree to negotiate, you have to be willing to offer something in return for what you want. Zelensky, of course, cannot concede anything because of the internal politics of Ukraine, so the new framing of the war is one side, the Russians, willing to make a deal, and the other side, the Ukrainians, unwilling to negotiate in good faith to end the war.

Zelensky understands the problem. He has now been put into a very dangerous position, which is why he chose to lead the delegation to Istanbul. He is not there to make a deal, but to orchestrate some way to blow up the process. His life literally depends on keeping the war going in such a way that the West remains engaged and supportive of Ukraine. He cannot reject talks outright, but he cannot engage in them in good faith, so he needs to find a third way.

The Europeans understand this as well, but they also have the added problem of the reality on the ground. The Ukrainian army is in serious trouble right now. They are steadily being pushed back while losing men and material at an alarming rate, one that is not sustainable for much longer. This write-up on the condition of the Ukraine army is about as positive of a spin as you will get before going into fantasy land and the author gives the Ukrainians six months to a year.

This is why Keith Kellogg, and the Europeans programmed Zelensky to demand an immediate ceasefire before negotiations. The plan is to get the ceasefire and then drag out talks while the Ukraine army is reorganized and reequipped for what they hope is the next round of the war on Russia. It is also why the Russians have rejected the idea and instead offered the talks in Istanbul. One way or the other they plan to finish Project Ukraine within the next year.

This is why Trump wisely jumped at this opportunity. No doubt his people are telling him how things are for Ukraine. If Trump can broker a peace deal, any peace deal that avoids images of Russian tanks in Kiev, it is a win for him. He will declare himself the savior of Ukraine. On the other hand, if Zelensky and the Europeans prevent a negotiated settlement, then Trump can lay the blame for those Russian tanks in Kiev on Zelensky and the Europeans.

What Trump has managed to do, perhaps without realizing it, is wriggle free from the trap left for him by the prior administration. He was left with two choices. One was continuing the proxy war by sending money and arms to Ukraine and take the blame when Ukraine finally capitulated. The other was to end the support for Ukraine and get blamed for “losing Ukraine” to the Russians. Now that he has brokered peace talks, he can shift the blame to others when Ukraine capitulates.

Again, much of this may be luck, but serendipity plays an enormous role in human affairs, so it is always part of the result. The reason for the expression, “Chance favors the prepared mind” is for exactly this reason. In order to succeed, it often means being prepared to take advantage of unexpected opportunities. When the Russians offered direct talks with Ukraine last week, it was a rare chance for Trump to change the order of things, and he jumped on it.

All of this now signals the start of the end game for Project Ukraine. What Trump has wanted from the start is to end the war and withdraw from this proxy war with the Russians and now he is one step closer to his goal. The question now is whether it is an orderly end or a disorderly end. If it is the latter, then the question is who gets the blame and judging by the maneuvering, the White House is betting it will be a disorderly end and so they are maneuvering to lay the blame on Europe.


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Arshad Ali
Arshad Ali
5 hours ago

“If Trump can broker a peace deal” If. But it’s not going to happen. Two cheers for Trump and some of the people around him for trying. But as you say, Zelensky cannot afford to make any concessions. The European doggies yapping away offer moral support to Zelensky (though nothing more tangible). And the Russians have no incentive to make concessions when reality is being determined on the battlefield. The Russians do have an interest in appearing to be reasonable and amenable to discussion. But the eventual peace settlement will be on their terms, not on Trump’s and certainly not… Read more »

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  Arshad Ali
5 hours ago

Great analysis. I still think peace could break out. Zelensky will just have to give Putin the 4 oblasts and Crimea and agree not to join NATO. A year ago, this would have seemed far-fetched. Today it’s maybe 3-1 against. Not bad.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Captain Willard
4 hours ago

If Z even thinks about that though, he’s a dead man. He’s riding a tiger and he will be eaten if that happens.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Mike
2 hours ago

How will his pretty wife look when she’s hanging upside down? Will she be dressed in the latest Dolce y Gabana or in stylish Versace?

Tykebomb
Tykebomb
Reply to  Captain Willard
3 hours ago

Putin would a moron to take that deal. He needs the entire Ukrainian coastline at minimum. Honestly, the collapse of the Ukraine into parts would be his best scenario. Besserabia to Maldova or Romania, Carpathain Ruthenia to Hungary, Lvov to Poland and a rump Ukraine as a second Belarus. Letting NATO countries tear off chunks would cement the peace deal.

It may take another 5 years, but that’s the only thing keeping NATO neocons from coming back again in the 2030s.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Tykebomb
3 hours ago

I think he needs to take Odessa, if only because of how the Ukes treated the ethnic Russians in ’14-’16. Which would mean, yeah, the coastline. That’s fine, though. Lots of countries get by just fine without coastline.

Pozymandias
Reply to  Captain Willard
3 hours ago

agree not to join NATO…

I doubt the Russians are going to take anything Zelenskyyyy agrees to seriously.

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Captain Willard
33 minutes ago

Why should the Russians trust any deal agreed to by Zelensky or Trump?

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Arshad Ali
5 hours ago

Could be. But Trump “wins” anyway. While blaming the loss on Bidet was problematic, as the Dems set Trump up for losing the war because he stopped the funding, blaming the failure to negotiate an end on Euro yappy dogs would be easy. No more difficult than revealing the actual numbers of men and materiel lost so far.

It’s Z and the Euros who refuse to look reality in the face. Delusional. Checkmate.

Ketchup-stained Griller
Ketchup-stained Griller
Reply to  Steve
4 hours ago

No more difficult than revealing the actual numbers of men and materiel lost so far.
yeah, that’s total bullshit that the country we’ve been sending billions to won’t publish actual casualty numbers.

lavrov
lavrov
Reply to  Steve
4 hours ago

What did Zman do wrong?

🙂

stranger in a strange land
stranger in a strange land
Reply to  lavrov
3 hours ago

Z as in Zelensky (I assume)

Filthie
Filthie
Member
Reply to  Arshad Ali
3 hours ago

Hrrrrrmmmmmm. I dunno, AA. In the real world this war has been over for the last two years. It could be argued that it was over the day it started. What we’re seeing today are the sporadic kicks and twitches of a dying corpse. This war formally ends only one way. The Kraine has been destroyed. Germany has been de-industrialized. Fwance and Britain teeter on the edge of collapse. If the only thing standing in the way of the inevitable is Zelensky – make no mistake. He will disappear and no one will miss him. If I were him I… Read more »

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Filthie
32 minutes ago

Zelensky will be forgotten as fast as Biden and bergoglio have been.

Bitter reactionary
Bitter reactionary
Reply to  Arshad Ali
3 hours ago

Zelensky isn’t immortal. Things could change overnight when he either flees or assumes room temperature.

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Arshad Ali
36 minutes ago

Excellent comment. It’s the Russians who will have the final word on this one. There’s absolutely no reason why they should accept any deal offered by Trump and West, considering how many the latter have broken. And even if a deal is signed that satisfies the Russians, who’s to say that the next bunch of neocon scum in office won’t renege on it. We talk about Zelensky’s head being on the block, but so is Putin’s if he accepts anything less than total victory in Ukraine. That means continuing to the Dnieper and taking Odessa so the Nudelmans can no… Read more »

Southron
Southron
5 hours ago

It is ridiculous we’re in this position to begin with. We should have dissolved NATO after the Soviet Union broke up. Instead, we jammed it down the Russians throats and right up to their border. How would we have reacted if the United States had broke apart and Texas or California joined the Warsaw Pact? Going to war with Russia is insane and I hope Trump manages to get it settled or get us out.

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  Southron
5 hours ago

Yup. It’s just like our problematic relationship with Israel, but on steroids. At least Israel doesn’t have nuclear-armed enemies, yet…..

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Southron
5 hours ago

We should have dissolved NATO after the Soviet Union broke up.”

While true, the Wizards of Smart (to steal from Rushbo) were able to convince the political class that USSR was going to reconstitute itself Any Day Now(TM).

They are still able to do so. Look at how all the smart people insisted that Russia was going to take over Ukraine, then all of Eastern Europe, then the rest of Europe. Any Day Now.(TM)

Pozymandias
Reply to  Southron
3 hours ago

Texas in the Warsaw Pact? Never. California? Enthusiastically. 🙂

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Pozymandias
2 hours ago

It’s a little surprising they haven’t made more noise about secession. With how much they crow about being the “world’s 4th largest economy.” But then the tech lords who really run that state are mostly on Team Orange to one degree or another.

Dutchboy
Dutchboy
Reply to  Pozymandias
46 minutes ago

California today, Texas tomorrow!

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Southron
31 minutes ago

1991 was one of the greatest missed opportunities in modern history. It could all have been so, so different if we’d kept the Nudelmans and Kagans away from the levers of power.

Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
Member
6 hours ago

All I care about is that it ends. Blessed are the peacemakers, Jesus said in the Sermon on the Mount. I’m tired of Ukrainians and Russians dying because of our bumbling interference. It was refreshing to hear JD Vance say that the India-Pakistan war was none of our concern, yet he and Marco Rubio (the surprise MVP of the administration so far) help negotiate a ceasefire. And it’s even better to see even DJT pull away from “our bestest friend in the world,” Israel. The barbarity of what they’re doing to the Palestinians, who aren’t exactly good folks either, is… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
1 hour ago

A little sidenote on the Indo-Pak War. Balochistan, the southwest half of Pokkyston, declared independence. Free Free Balochistan! Trump should ink a minerals deal with them.

Every time Pakistan attacks India, a new country is born.
p.s. Don’t tell the Kurds in Syria-Iraq. They might get ideas.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Alzaebo
Apex Predator
Apex Predator
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
1 hour ago

Same here but it wasn’t really our “bumbling interference” so much as a very old blood libel coming out at an opportune time. Surely you read this board enough to know the ‘tribal proclivities’ of those who ginned up this, ANOTHER brother war in Europe, that thing they just love to do at any opportunity (See WW1 & WW2) The thing they love to see the most as the world around us gets browner and browner by the decade. I’m less than 8 hours drive away from the Ukrainian border right now so I see this in technicolor all around… Read more »

Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
Member
Reply to  Apex Predator
1 hour ago

I agree with your point, but this definitely wasn’t a proxy war waged by brilliant minds. It was ham-handed and just frankly idiotic. It was simply a sop to the military industrial complex. Nothing more. It just happened to dovetail with a certain religious minority’s priorities to kill Slavs.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
55 minutes ago

Marco Rubio (the surprise MVP of the administration so far)”

I hated Rubio with the heat of 10,000 suns in the 2000s when he was constantly pushing for amnesty.

I assumed that he was overwhelmed by ethnic kinship for the mestizo hordes.

Now, I don’t know how to explain his change of heart except sociopathy. I refuse to give him any credit.

Horace
Horace
Reply to  LineInTheSand
43 minutes ago

Rubio is a male bound concubine. Either his (former?) master, that Jewish real estate magnate in Florida, has changed sides, or more likely he is now simply bound to a different master. Zelensky was much the same, being Kolomoisky’s (a Ukraine-based Jewish oligarch) creature early on and transitioning to being the City of London’s (transnational Jewish oligarchs) creature once their money and close protection detail moved into Ukraine in earnest. Regardless, you are spot on to give him no credit.

Lavrov
Lavrov
5 hours ago

i am also expecting a disorderly collapse of NATO sooner or later. The core claim of NATO is that it is so strong that Russians would shake in boots hearing it’s name. Instead the NATO countries are now worried that some chihuahua like Estonia will get all of them into a war.

just yesterday Estonians were trying to steal a ship sailing to Russia, and Russian bombers showed up. This is unsustainable.

Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
Member
Reply to  Lavrov
5 hours ago

Time for us to cut the ties with NATO. If we leave, it’ll unravel like a sweater with a pulled thread. The European “democracies” have cut their militaries to the point of absurdity where the Russians, if they wanted, could take all of that land with little trouble. We’re talking hundreds of tanks, attack helicopters and fighter aircraft for NATO against thousands for the Russians.

But they won’t ever do that. Far easier to let the European “democracies” implode because they’re importing millions of hostile foreigners at the expense of their native populations.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
5 hours ago

Outside of a Tom Clancy fantasy, I don’t believe NATO ever really had a chance against the Russians (without using nukes). Which is as true today as it ever was. But drones have changed the potential battlefield. Against which, Russia’s conventional superiority may not be worth much more than the GAE’s is against the Houthis.

Last edited 5 hours ago by Jeffrey Zoar
Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
Member
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
59 minutes ago

There was no way REFORGER could get enough forces across the Atlantic, which would’ve been crawling with hundreds of very solid Soviet subs, to stem the tide of the Red Army. Red Storm Rising was a nice fantasy.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
45 minutes ago

Clancy could have been right about our ASW advantage. But he didn’t know anything about our intel disadvantage

Hun
Hun
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
5 hours ago

US can not cut ties with NATO, because NATO is the tool that makes the Euro countries vassals to the US. Americans have their military in Euro countries, not the other way around. If some Euro country starts barking too loud, that is all it can do – bark. No real action happens without the US.

JMDGT
JMDGT
Reply to  Hun
5 hours ago

They can and they should. Bring the boys back home. It will not happen in my lifetime. End the American Empire.

JMDGT
JMDGT
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
5 hours ago

I agree it is long past time for the USSA to get the F¥€£ out of NATO. Let the Europeans manage their own scheisse. These entangling relationships are poison.

Marko
Marko
Reply to  Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
5 hours ago

Good luck with that. Whenever with normies I forward the idea of eliminating NATO get treated like I just said, “What if we get rid of Pepsi?” NATO is up there with the NYSE and the NFL in terms of things Boomers and over-40s think is gifted from the almighty.

Dr_Mantis_Tobbogan_MD
Member
Reply to  Marko
57 minutes ago

It’s an institution without a purpose, except to maintain our control over Western Europe. Once the Soviet Union ceased to exist, so should have NATO.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Lavrov
5 hours ago

Compared with some of the past attempts, this Estonian gambit seems weak. Putin is the world champion of not taking the bait. It appears that anything short of launching nukes at him will fail to provoke a response. But even so, you get enough hardware in close proximity and sometimes things happen.

Marko
Marko
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
4 hours ago

Estonia is lucky they still have their language and can make verivorst.

They should count their blessings and realize their good fortune. But most of Estonians I know hate Russia and “the Soviet Time” with a passion…some refuse to even speak Russian, and 45% of Tallinn is ethnically Russian. Instead of being thankful that they survived while other countries have not (Scotland, Prussia, Tibet, Kurdistan…) they instead act like the weak little dork that makes friends with the school bully (NATO).

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Marko
2 hours ago

Just curious, do they hate Russia so much because they ruined Estonia’s chance to be a part of the Thousand-year Reich? None of the Baltic poodles covered themselves in glory resisting the Nazis and were enthusiastic collaborators for the most part. They need to sit down and shut up and hope that Russia continues to tolerate them.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
4 hours ago

It’s funny that the Baltic midgets and Poland are building their own Maginot Lines to stop Russian invasions and to take advantage of all those wonderful graft opportunities with all the MIC money sloshing around with no oversight. They all know that Russia won’t invade and it’s all just performance art by the kleptocrats for the benefit of the rubes. Also, especially in the Balkans, they’re still pissed off that Germany lost WW II. They all fell all over themselves helping the Third Reich in every way they could. They want to get back at Russia in the worst possible… Read more »

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Mike
1 hour ago

You’re not supposed to say that about the Balkans. Look at all the countries that discretely joined up with…er, I mean surrendered in terror to the Hun Menace.

Weird, isn’t it, how most of the French Resistance were Communist criminal gangs. My French “uncle” told me this, as his choice was join them or join the Foreign Legion. (He chose the Legion, and served in Africa. His face would screw up in distate whenever blacks were mentioned.)

p.s.- special thanks to Zoar for pointing out the Italians, with Rommel as a expeditionary force. I hadn’t known that.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Alzaebo
Dutchboy
Dutchboy
Reply to  Alzaebo
43 minutes ago

Hitler had allies from Finland to Bulgaria. He might have had Yugoslavia too if the British hadn’t organized an anti-German coup.

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  Lavrov
5 hours ago

Yeah, this won’t happen until there is a crisis or an epic failure. It’s pretty clear that Merz/Macron/Starmer have been scheming to put boots on the ground in Ukraine (beyond the special forces already there). This could still happen later this summer if negotiations fail. We could have an “October special” just like the Kruschev days. This Euro generation of leaders are “all in” on NATO and won’t fold a terrible hand.

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  Captain Willard
1 hour ago

Judas Priest. They just want to kill off more white Europeans so they can pack more duskies in to sustain the regime, sounds like.

They don’t seem to realize that soon enough the duskies will be voting for themselves, so it’s a Pyrrhic victory. They’re signing their own death warrants, and their grandkids’ too.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Alzaebo
ProZNoV
ProZNoV
Reply to  Lavrov
2 hours ago

Remember: Ukrainian has still not issued a decree for total mobilization. This would include men and women.

Russia would surely respond with the same.

An orgy of death and destruction.

This is EXACTLY what Europe is desperately pushing for. They truly believe this would cripple Russia and not touch them at all.

Madness. The ultimate women strategy “Let’s you and him fight!”

Charming Billy
Charming Billy
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 hour ago

Adam calls to God “give me back my rib!”

usNthem
usNthem
5 hours ago

As we often say on the links, it’s sometimes better to be lucky than good. The fact is, the stuff Trump is doing and trying to do are things absolutely no other politician in this country would even attempt – even if they really wanted to. It’s the main reason I’m so tired of all the Trump bashing. He is literally the only option to get anything at all done that favors or might favor the American people. The mere thought that cameltoe harris could have calling the shots (metaphorically of course) is the stuff of nightmares.

Evil Sandmich
Evil Sandmich
Reply to  usNthem
3 hours ago

Trump is one of those guys who make me wonder if their is a videogame-like genetic predisposition towards luck.

stranger in a strange land
stranger in a strange land
Reply to  Evil Sandmich
3 hours ago

OTOH – Biden is one of those guys who make me wonder if there’s a videogame-like predisposition towards choosing the wrong side on virtually any subject.

LGC
LGC
Reply to  stranger in a strange land
21 minutes ago

Jim Cramer would like a word

TomA
TomA
5 hours ago

Actually, the Russians orchestrated this outcome for the expressed purpose of creating a face-saving exit for Trump. He wasn’t either smart or lucky, just skillfully manipulated. But it’s a win-win nonetheless, and it will bring the war to an end sooner thereby saving hundreds of thousands of lives. The ultimate goal for Russia is a NATO retreat from Eastern Europe and a new security agreement with the West. Trump will partner on that also, and then new nuclear arms limitation treaties will happen. The European Central Banks will not survive this Renaissance of sanity.

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  TomA
5 hours ago

Yes Tom, for sure Putin maneuvered Trump into this position. But Trump was smart enough to seize the opportunity. The drooling Biden or cackling Harris would’ve never been in this position. What will save the ECBs is not going bankrupt in an arms race. They have enough problems with all the imported savages on welfare.

Mr. House
Mr. House
Reply to  TomA
5 hours ago

The European Central Banks will not survive this Renaissance of sanity”

Curious, what makes you say that? Not that i disagree, its just an angle i haven’t heard many speak about lately.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  TomA
5 hours ago

Yep, TomA, sage insight. Putin’s running the show here. Trump may very well be willing—and can—make nice with Russia, if and when, the Uke conflict is solved. Putin and Trump scratching each other’s back so to speak. I’m all for it myself. Never did I imagine before this conflict that we’d see a war such as this again. Shades of WWII.

The moral implications, often spoken of by Z-man, are huge.

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Compsci
3 hours ago

“Never did I imagine before this conflict that we’d see a war such as this again.”

Never did I imagine that we would be the cause of it, either.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  TomA
4 hours ago

I don’t believe that’s quite true. At least it’s not that simple. Z and the Euros got the ball rolling with their cease-fire while insisting on Russian retreat and war tribunals. Complete non-starters. Putin counter-offered to meet, um, today in Istanbul to continue the talks that Z walked out of. Which gave Trump the opportunity to play the “Negotiate or you are on your own” card.

It’s not so much that Putin is a master strategist, but just that Z and the Euros can’t see a rake on the ground without going over and stepping on it.

Last edited 4 hours ago by Steve
TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Steve
3 hours ago

You don’t give Putin enough credit. You can’t be in power as long as he has been and not be a master strategist. And good thing for Russia, he has been a benevolent dictator of sorts. He also wouldn’t have been patient enough to conduct a rope-a-dope war if he wasn’t a good strategist.

Last edited 3 hours ago by TempoNick
Steve
Steve
Reply to  TempoNick
3 hours ago

If by “master strategist” you mean he plays the hardliners off against the more liberal factions, sure. But that’s not exactly 4-D chess. Even Democrats are able to turn factions against each other.

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  TempoNick
26 minutes ago

Putin did what Trump can only aspire to: he made his country great again. He pulled Russia back from the brink of complete implosion and dealt with his own Deep State with extreme prejudice.

Jannie
Jannie
Reply to  TomA
4 hours ago

Euros will be happy to see the flow of cheap gas from Russia resume.

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Jannie
25 minutes ago

Not where I live, they won’t. Natural gas is not “eco-friendly”.

Dutchboy
Dutchboy
Reply to  TomA
42 minutes ago

Oremus!

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
Reply to  TomA
23 minutes ago

The ECBs may not if Russia and friends adopt the mBridge, China’s alternative to SWIFT (and already at work in 10 countries in Asia’s shipping lanes and the Mideast.) Especially since the main central banks are mired in a rickety derivatives, debt swap, and ‘basis trade’ (futures hedging) counterparty house of cards. Tariffs like Smoot-Hawley didn’t cause the Great Depression, it was when four major European banks defaulted that did. After WW1, Europe got to where it could no longer buy our products, so our exports collapsed, which made our overleveraged internal credit collapse. In the meantime, the Weimar depradations… Read more »

Last edited 6 minutes ago by Alzaebo
Nick
Nick
5 hours ago

Living in Moscow, most people just treat the situation like a minor irritant they wish would go away. A lot of the older generation hate Americans and it can cause problems but overall it’s pretty cool being here.

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Nick
3 hours ago

As one of their hillbilly ethnic cousins, I’ve always wanted to go to Russia to see the ancestral motherland. Of course, they will consider me an American when I’m there, but I do have a warm spot for their nation, whether it is justified or not.

Nick
Nick
Reply to  TempoNick
3 hours ago

As a tourist you’re unlikely to have much trouble. It’s a great country to visit. Most of the expats here think the country is extremely friendly. Problem is, they don’t speak the language and don’t understand what’s often said about them.

Wiffle
Wiffle
Reply to  TempoNick
38 minutes ago

Of course, they will consider me an American when I’m there,” It’s good to know somebody might.
I do have a warm spot for their nation, whether it is justified or not.”
Maybe you could do that for the nation that took in your Dad, offered him union work, and continues to offer a home to your family. We seem to only get that from actual White refugees though.

Vegetius
Vegetius
5 hours ago

From the tariffs to the border to Ukraine to the Middle East — everything is possible when you simply tell warmongering cosmpolitans “No”.

TempoNick
TempoNick
4 hours ago

Call me crazy, but I don’t understand why countries like Pakistan and India can have nukes, a little pipsqueak country of 8 million people with a nut job like Netanyahu running it can have nukes, but 90 million people backed by 2,700 years of civilization (Iran) can’t. The Iranians aren’t nut jobs. We’re just mad at them because they kicked out the Shah and won’t allow us to install their leaders anymore. Thus, we’ve been subject to propaganda since then. With all the terror and devastation caused by the neocons, if you have the ability to create nukes for yourself,… Read more »

Steve
Steve
Reply to  TempoNick
3 hours ago

While they have moved some, and have some elements of civil law, Iran is still based on sharia. It still supports organizations that would definitely use nukes if they had them.

I get that the cool kids are all in favor of Iran having nukes, but maybe stick with enrichment to reactor grade for the nonce? Make some kind of deal with both Russia and US that they will trade yellowcake or even reactor grade for medical grade? At least until we see what they do with their waste? If no dirty bombs go off, we can go from there?

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Steve
3 hours ago

I just look at what is fair. I look at who has nukes and it seems to me that a country of 90 million people which is not exactly a Banana Republic shouldn’t be denied the ability to protect themselves from the neocon menace.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  TempoNick
2 hours ago

I don’t care what’s “fair”, particularly a third of the way around the globe. It is literally none of my business, and neither is it any of yours.

This is just another Libertarian talking point.

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Steve
2 hours ago

This has nothing to do with libertarianism. This has to do with America keeping its nose out of other people’s business.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  TempoNick
1 hour ago

Nonsense. You made the appeal to “fairness”, another way of saying “equity”.

I agree the US should stay out. Should have, definitely. Now, though? The Iranians have said many times they do not want weapons and are happy stopping at medical grade, or even reactor grade. Which seems to me to be a good way of avoiding the “Samson Option” that everyone is talking about.

So if Trump can play a part in “negotiating” what Iran is already willing to do, and telling Israel to suck it up, bonus.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  TempoNick
2 hours ago

Fair is not, and never should be, a factor in international relations

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
2 hours ago

Who are we to push around Iran? Not our problem.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  TempoNick
2 hours ago

Because it is not in our national interest to push around Iran is the reason not to. Not because of anything to do with “fair.” But the GAE operates mostly on imperial interest (aka greed) rather than national interest, which is why we have this Ukraine problem.

Filthie
Filthie
Member
5 hours ago

It’s fun to think of Blumpf as some kind of Forrest Gump figure tripping and falling upward at every turn. But I don’t think any of this is chance. During the Biden regime the Russians literally had no one to talk to. So they did their talking on the battlefield. The situation is far different today. I’ll bet the back channels between Moscow and Washington are lit up like a Christmas tree. Both Trump and Putler are businessmen, they are realists and they want the same things. The rest of us – Canada, the UK, Fwance, Germany et al –… Read more »

Tars Tarkas
Member
Reply to  Filthie
4 hours ago

Putin is a businessman? Guy’s been in government his whole life.

Mr. Generic
Mr. Generic
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
3 hours ago

Have you seen the Putin merch stores?

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
3 hours ago

So was Silent Cal, other than a single year as a commercial lawyer, which is the same thing.

Filthie
Filthie
Member
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
3 hours ago

Agreed. And – he’s seen the chokes and bottlenecks, the fraud, the corruption and all the other things that went along with it. He knows where the skeletons are, who put them there and he dealt with them. He’s defied the global order and successfully waged war against it. He kicked the jews out of Russian finances and tied his currency to gold. Today his currency is the third strongest in the world. Perhaps it is not exactly right to say he is a businessman but he certainly understands business and how it works. Not only that – he understands… Read more »

Tars Tarkas
Member
Reply to  Filthie
2 hours ago

Are you using chatgpt or something?
I have nothing against Putin, but saying the Ruble is the 3rd strongest currency in the world is something only chatGPT with its “hallucinations” could come up with.

Nick
Nick
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
1 hour ago

I can tell you from living here that it isn’t a particularly strong currency. Inflation is a problem here just as much if not more than in the US. People love to watch channels like the Duran and hear about how strong the Russian economy is. In reality, people here are feeling the squeeze. It doesn’t mean things are on the verge of collapse, just that the rosy pictures pro-Z commentators paint is a little silly at times.

Filthie
Filthie
Member
Reply to  Nick
1 hour ago

Well that could well be a problem fellas. The Duran is one of the channels I watch simply because it seems they are right far more often than wrong. There’s any number of smaller voices that disagree as you do… but I am not close enough to see if those voices have merit or not. Having said all that… Things are horrible here too and are being papered over somewhat. The US is on the edge of collapse. China’s economy is predicated on a house of cards even flimsier than ours. I personally believe that at least a deep recession… Read more »

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
5 hours ago

Trump is an intuitive negotiator…He throws out a lot of ideas, many self contradictory, and looks for a reaction..The European leaders and Zelensk want nothing to do with peace or negotiations, but Trump’s idea, quickly seized upon by Putin, backed them into a corner where a refusal to negotiate would inflict major damage on them politically…Nothing will be agreed of course….but it will be a big win for Trump and Putin…

Filthie
Filthie
Member
Reply to  pyrrhus
3 hours ago

Yep. It isn’t 4D chess, but I will bet dollars to donuts that deep behind the scenes, Blumpf and Putler will be setting each other up for slam dunks like this in the future.

JMDGT
JMDGT
5 hours ago

Unfortunately for the USSA it is still in NATO. Would the idiots in Europe behave differently if it weren’t? Perpetuating the war for whatever their current reasons are looks like Russian Derangement Syndrome.

Last edited 5 hours ago by JMDGT
Steve
Steve
Reply to  JMDGT
4 hours ago

True. Just remember this is an ideal setup for pulling out of NATO, something Trump wanted to do his first term even. So long as he can make the case that it’s the Euros who are the belligerents, and will likely draw us into a war we don’t want or can afford, he has the setup to back out completely.

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  Steve
3 hours ago

I think pulling out of NATO is a bunch of hopium on some people’s parts. I don’t see that ever happening. I do think Trump is leveraging the threat of pulling out of NATO to get what he wants, however.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  TempoNick
3 hours ago

Absolutely. It will be hopium until it happens. Kinda like some people thought USSR was on the verge of collapse, and others scoffed, insisting state socialism was the way of the future. Until it did collapse, and everyone who was mistaken immediately switched teams, saying they were always on team collapse…

Mr. House
Mr. House
Reply to  TempoNick
2 hours ago

Biden and congress passed a law making sure only congress can pull US out of NATO. Funny how they only grow balls when its going against what the people want

https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Mr. House
1 hour ago

While true, it does not require the President to send replacement troops to NATO countries. It also does not prevent the DOD from doing troop drawdowns, or deciding materiel is needed elsewhere.

Mr. House
Mr. House
Reply to  Steve
58 minutes ago

Indeed, but i doubt they’d take that initiative

Mr. House
Mr. House
Reply to  Steve
56 minutes ago

and some federal judge would tell them its illegal if they did

My Comment
My Comment
4 hours ago

I have cut Trump a lot of slack with Ukraine because last time a president was clearly going to defy the CIA, the rest of the MIC and Israel, he, JFK, was killed.

Trump was impeached twice because he wasn’t as enthusiastic as demanded by the Jews and the rest of the blob about wars with Ukraine, Russia and Syria.

TempoNick
TempoNick
Reply to  My Comment
3 hours ago

I think too many people realize that they’ve been lied to by our beloved government over the years. We’re supposed to be the good guys and it’s becoming more and more apparent that we are not.

comment image

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  TempoNick
2 hours ago

There are no good guys, only who’s up and who’s down. Good, Beauty, and Truth aren’t human characteristics. People follow power (and I don’t like that about them fwiw).

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
2 hours ago

I’m hoping this means the end of the EU. It is a lethally ridiculous concept; imagine 44 US states that don’t speak each other’s languages, that used to raid each other.

We have Magic Dirt, I think they tried Magic Money in the EU. As if a shared currency were a water thicker than blood. The EU has no President, no King, only a hostile, unelected Parliament. And they can’t even defend themselves, not only from their Parliament, but from the outside invaders it brings in.

The Pax Americana has failed to defend its ancestral people, quite the opposite.

Last edited 2 hours ago by Alzaebo
Mike
Mike
1 hour ago

I was reading Simplicius a few minutes ago and he said that the Ukraine is recruiting kid drone operators from the USSA now. The article he referenced named a 20-year-old who is there now. My hope is that after the war ends the FSB, GRU whatever, gets their names and addresses and visits them in a permanent way.

Whiskey
2 hours ago

Let me add, Zelensky has just turned up in Instanbul, demanding Putin personally attend, saying he will never give up any territory including Crimea, and posturing. The problem is that Zelensky is the hero figure to the press and the deep/derp state. The FT columnist Jemima Kelly wrote an editorial blasting Trump and Vance for disrespecting her hero like an enraged 12 year old girl defending the boy band BTS. Zelensky sure seems like HE not Trump (or Putin) is in control, and in a sense Zelensky is in control, not them. Unless or until the tanks roll into Keeeevvvvv… Read more »

Robbo
Robbo
Reply to  Whiskey
22 minutes ago

“Jemima”. Only the English upper class twits call their kids “Jemima”. FFS!

Whiskey
2 hours ago

I don’t think the war can end, because too many people depend on the grift. The Europeans are forming up a giant grift fund under Van Der Leyen to “re-arm” i.e. create a giant Euro slush fund. War justifies the “total fix” to the White problem by a giant draft to send all White men to die on the Russian Front. That was the deal the “white powdered” up Starmer, Macron, and Merz were dealing with on the Zelensky Train. They were openly doing lines in front of the press. Moreover, the neo-cons will not allow any end to the… Read more »

Dutchboy
Dutchboy
36 minutes ago

If Trump can avoid war with Iran and manage to get a peace deal in Ukraine, he will have avoided the two of the biggest threats to a successful term. The third threat is not so easily avoided: the GOP Congress.

Krustykurmudgeon
Krustykurmudgeon
39 minutes ago

how much of this is sort of “oppositional defiant” or whatever you call it. Trump is president so the dems in Colorado are sort of symbolically flipping the bird:
https://thefederalist.com/2025/05/15/colorados-trangender-sanctuary-state-bill-is-too-radical-for-california/

This is why a federalist system doesn’t work if you have the same parties at the state level. Otherwise the state governments act as a form of “ex parte communication” to the national government and trust is destroyed.

Greg Nikolic
6 hours ago

The Europeans seem to be delighting in flexing their military muscle for the first time in generations. They have a “noble war” they think they can win and how dare Washington intrude on a winning formula. The problem is the Russians keep crunching the Ukrainians down to size. No one anticipated that the arrival of mass modern weapons wouldn’t do the trick, but they have only bought Ukraine a little more time. The Europeans, in thrall to their American master, will take the inevitable capitulation like good little bitches. This will teach them not to meddle where their master fears… Read more »

Arshad Ali
Arshad Ali
Reply to  Greg Nikolic
5 hours ago

The Europeans seem to be delighting in flexing their military muscle

Eh? What muscle? These castrated little doggies have no muscle. Just incessant yapping.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Arshad Ali
4 hours ago

Exactly. And yet, even realizing such weakness, they yap even louder—just like the lap dogs they are. There really is a good comparison here to dogs and their innate behavior. They will run (cave) once they get bitten.