2018 Predictions

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I had not looked at last year’s predictions since I posted them, so I was a little surprised by how many of them turned out to be right. The prediction about Trump and Republicans pushing through a big tax bill was pretty spot on. Trump has also attacked the regulatory code as I predicted. I did predict the GOP would do some rollback on ObamaCare, which did not happen, other than repeal of the mandate. I was also right on the climate change stuff. Trump has reversed Federal policy on climate change and faced little resistance.

I did not get the China stuff right. Of course, it is hard to know as the ChiComs are good at hiding their systemic trouble. The fact that no one is talking about China’s economy these days suggests the boom times are over, so maybe I was just a year early. I missed on the Middle East stuff, but there is no shame in that. I did hit a home run on the gene editing prediction. I was also prescient on the alt-right in-fighting. In fairness, which was so obvious I cannot take credit for that one. Pretty much the only thing they do well is squabble.

So, what are the signs telling me this year?

The Trump agenda will trundle along with the negotiations over DACA amounting nothing, as the Democrats find that there is no constituency for the program. Instead, it will be allowed to expire and Trump will be painted as the bad guy, but no one will care, including Trump. Instead, the focus will be on the infrastructure bill, which will turn into a massive Christmas tree that both parties get to decorate. In that bill will be some sort of second chance provision for DACA, along with money for that wall and other immigration items.

On the domestic political front, the Mueller investigation will keep taking on water as it becomes clear that the real issue is not Russian meddling in the presidential election, but FBI meddling in the election. Trump may even appoint a new special prosecutor to dig into the FBI, Uranium One and the DOJ shenanigans. This will begin to spill into the midterms, as the Republicans figure out that this is a chance for them to blunt Democrat gains. The Democrats will pickup some seats in the House but lose some seats in the Senate.

This will be the year that gene editing in health care moves to center stage. Researchers in California used a new technique in 2017 to alter a patient’s DNA in an effort to treat a metabolic disease called Hunter syndrome. Health care is about to make a tremendous leap forward with respect to treating genetic disorders. Similarly, micro-technology is about to revolutionize medical testing with trackable pills that collect information about a patient throughout their day. The morality of new medicine starts to get serious attention.

One of the consequences of the big GOP tax bill will be the impact it will have on Europe’s not so robust economy. The disparity in corporate tax rates was a boon to Europe, but now the roles are reversed and companies will begin to repatriate cash and jobs to the United States this year. This will put more pressure on the EU and on pro-EU parties, as the nationalist parties are just starting the become organized. This will also cause the Brexit negotiations to fail and it will bring down the Theresa May government.

At the same time, the various nationalist parties on the Continent will continue to grow their support due to the intractable migrant problem and the establishment’s inability to formulate a coherent response. Emmanuel Macron will push through a set of immigration reforms that will legitimize the nationalists parties and increase demands for reform in the rest of the EU. Even more frightening to the European establishment, Sebastian Kurz, the new Austrian Chancellor, will start talking with the Visegrád Group about cooperation.

While electric car sales will continue to grow, they will remain a toy for the upper middle-class. The real growth in electric vehicles will be at the lower end. Electrically assisted bicycles, self-balancing one wheel scooters, powered skateboards and hi-tech mobility scooters for old people will become the next big thing. Electric cars face all sorts of obstacles, but new battery technology will open the door for micro-travel devices that are relatively cheap and meet the demands for old people and urban residents.

The much anticipated IPO of Saudi Aramco will not be done publicly. Bankers in London and New York have been maneuvering to get what many think will be the biggest IPO ever. Instead, the Saudis will opt for a private offering and it will not be the trillion dollar event everyone expects. This will lead to speculation about the stability of the kingdom and questions about the future of the House of Saud. Saudi Arabia is basically a hedge fund with a country attached. Aramco’s stock price will be the measure of Saudi health.

Finally, the New York Yankees will be the first team in baseball history to lose all 162 regular season games. The embarrassment will cause city officials to evict the team, forcing them to move to New Jersey. The enormity of this sporting catastrophe will be eclipsed by the sudden bankruptcy of the English Premiere League. The death of professional football in England will have a domino effect, resulting in the collapse of all professional football leagues, even the NFL, which is a different football.

That is it for this year. It has been another great year for the blog, adding tens of thousands of new readers and many new commenters. I appreciate everyone taking the time out of their day to read and respond. It has also been a great start to the podcast, despite the fact I have done little to promote it. As has been the case with the blog, the podcast audience grows by word of mouth. I appreciate everyone posting links on social media and recommending me to their friends and enemies. I genuinely appreciate it.

Happy New Year to one and all.

71 thoughts on “2018 Predictions”

  3. Bitcoin will either collapse in a scandal of some sort, or rocket to north of $30,000 before the end of 2018. Or maybe both.

  5. Fox News is reporting Susie Buell of Esprit Clothing put up $500,000 trying to find any woman to accuse Trump of impropriety.

    Would love to predict Hillary and her supporters would go to jail n 2018, but we all know that’s not going to happen.

    • Jail for Crooked Hillary? That’s only slightly less likely than the Yankees losing all 162 games in 2018! 😉

  6. Why Trump has allowed the Mueller investigation to go on is becoming obvious now. It is the Democrats, and especially Hillary and Obama and their people, who have been the ones breaking the laws and abusing the system. The Russian Dossier and wire taps and all that. For 2018, the Mueller investigation will complete the job of exposing the wrongdoers, and they are not Trump. The Donald has stood by while Mueller dug a deeper and deeper hole for his people. Lots of discipline and a calculated risk on Trump’s part in doing so. Had he cracked down on Mueller, the whole conspiracy would have had a much harder time finding the light of day.

    • Trump my be playing the long game but only because his own swamp rhetoric was timid in comparison to the reality of DC and the force that has to be overcome. Now he knows. We shall see soon enough if he has organized to take them down. I have no idea, but the man is full of surprises.

    • Yep. All have found themselves “on the menu” in the past and I detect zero appetite for another round of that. The Polacks in particular. They are a flinty lot, much harder than the Westerners. I think they will eat Brussels alive.

  8. Did you throw in the
    Bit about the Yankees jusy to see if anyone is actually reading your essay?

  9. What do you mean with “the BREXIT negotions will fail”? Do you think that BREXIT will not happen or that BREXIT will happen without any agreement between the EU and UK?

    • I think Brexit will happen without a deal on trade and services. Or at least look that way as negotiations with the EU fall apart. I think the EU is largely run by people wholly unaware that the world is rapidly changing.

    • It’s a case of “he who panics first panics best”,so the UK cannot be allowed to succeed they must be destroyed. If they aren’t then all the rest are out the door. There will be a hard brexit and the EU will be hostile to them.

    • Also suspect the EU is going to be in a two front war. They’ve raised the ante with Poland and Hungary on refugees. The Polacks in particular have seen this how this play works out for them in the past and seem to be in a BFYTW mood with the Hungarians right behind them. Don’t see them compromising one bit, which is a huge challenge to Brussels.

    • It is amazing that Sears has lasted this long. Many departments are obviously understocked and have been for two years because suppliers do not trust them to get paid.

  11. I predict a failure of Bannonism against the establishment, unless Bannon does something major to put forth more than Tea Party lite/middling/bland/unprepared candidates that are not hugely distinctive from the GOP offerings, in the grand scheme of things. Another batch of normie Zionists are not going get people excited.

    In that same vein, I predict the continued decline of milquetoast civic nationalism. Pushing hard against immigration without distinguishing the racial nature of the problem will continue to be a losing hand.

    I predict the further decline & marginalization of the NeoCons, with the more prominent openly making their way leftward to NeoLiberalism, w/ some completing the journey.

    I predict DACA “kids” getting amnesty, in exchange for wall funding, and an end to chain migration and/or a large reduction to H1B Visas, maybe end of Visa lottery system, possibly e-verify. It won’t be a great deal, but a compromise that the GOP pushes Trump to take, before the 2018 elections, which will be a huge mistake.

    Happy New Year, everyone!

    • Trump coming to an understanding with the establishment GOP and them working in tandem is the big story. Only it is the establishment that moves more than Trump. They are beginning to realize that he’s the one with the mandate and he isn’t going anywhere.

      Watch Orrin Hatch talking about the tax bill. He’s so happy he looks like he’s going to cry.

      I think Bannon moderates his tone in tune with this change in the environment and he ends up helping the GOP retain some of the base who might be prone to stay home during elections. They will tolerate him saying a few slightly inflammatory things just to keep the train moving.

  12. Long suffering Chicago Cub fans rejoice in your foolish American league feuds and bickering. May you languish in the cellar without hope or good relief pitching.

    • The one downside of winning the World Series? Had to stop using the “last time the Cubs won the Series, there was still an Ottoman Empire” line. But otherwise grateful to be alive to see it.

      • In the 80’s and 90’s, I would wear a T-shirt for the 1918 World Series Red Sox, whenever I was around Yankee fans. The “1918” chant does not resonate anymore.

  13. Here are three predictions:

    1. Another high-profile leftist male will get devoured by Hillary’s Harpie Praetorian Guards alleging harassment. Maybe Bill Maher (he’s so sleazy that accusations against him may be met with a shrug, but it would be beautiful to see him gored by the leftist ox, with some charges that he harassed or raped someone; he’s survived these in the past, so he may be Teflon, but a guy can hope).

    2. Ben Shapiro will have some sort of weepy, Glenn Beck sort of meltdown after one too many antisemitic memes hits his twitter feed, and he’ll be writing for Huffington Post about how he saw the light. I’d hedge this with a Gavin McInnes doing something similar, though it would be something like a lucrative TV or book offer that might get him to switch from alt-light to prog loon. I could even see Milo doing this.

    3. Escalating violence against Christians in Pakistan and Iraq provides a chance for Trump’s foes among the neocons to sell him on a boots-on-the-ground fiasco in another Middle Eastern shit hole. The media’s clarion of “Trump is being presidential/serious” works on him (as it has in the past) and he becomes George W. Bush, in essence, losing even his qualified support among the alt-right. Bannon and Sessions are totally handcuffed, and Washington goes back to business as usual. The Deep State is so confident at this point that they lay off the Russiagate stuff and Trump’s poll numbers climb.

    • For many “right wing” media types their posturing is calculated to garner attention while not crossing certain lines, so that when it is convenient they can transition into a more mainstream, or even left wing venue.

      IOW it isn’t about the movement, it is about them and shekels.

      Right now Shapiro is paid well by pro-zionist evangelicals to say what they want, and their goals coincide. If the money runs out on such gigs, or if the opportunity to move into an establishment organ presents itself with the only requirement being a slight shift to the left, he will do it.

      There is a niche market for “right wingers” to be a kept opposition for media political theater. And the merchant right is positioning itself to fill that niche.

      I look at it like my specialty. The average age of people in it is old. Huge opportunity for people willing to work hard enough to do it. Look at how old George Will is.

  15. I suspect folks are not going to like this prediction but the loss of Net Neutrality along with “we are in charge” sloth will quite a few Republican losses in the House elections unless real effort is made otherwise,

    It might, might be enough to end Republican control of the house.

  16. Good call on electric bicycles. There is a lot of ferment in this field right now. It’s definitely going to take off in the cities, as people sitting in their cars in traffic jams see their associates getting to work without problems.

    Still wondering when the other shoe (of economic crash through debt) is going to drop. An infrastructure bill will probably make Obama’s deficits look modest.

    • With communications the way they are, I can’t understand why companies continue to be located in big cities.

      • That and the continued rise of telecommuting. Some business has to be done in person, but lots of things can be done from home. Federal contractors were onto this early. Twenty years ago a buddy’s wife worked a a contract admin from home. She had two little kids to watch so it worked for her. She had to be logged in during work hours and her productivity was tracked, to make sure she was doing her job, but otherwise, she stayed home.

    • My daughter would like to cut her six mile forty-five minute car commute in Hollywood to twenty minutes with her bike, but it’s way too dangerous.

  17. Me thinks you cheat just a little:

    * Sessions called for a SP on the FBI meddling on Dec 22nd.
    * Small EVs have been a thing in CA for quite some time.
    * AramcoIPO has been a known situation since at least Nov.
    * OCare will die via the new tax bill. With indiv mandate gone it will be to as a force in the marketplace and that is all that matters.

    • Sessions has not called for a SP on FBI meddling.
      If you say so.
      You are wrong on Aramco. Nothing has been decided yet.
      You apparently don’t know anything about ObamaCare.

      • The young and healthy will pull out. Their participation was and is the foundation of the ACA. Only the takers will remain. The insurance companies will continue to pull out. The pot of gold subsidies are shrinking. Good. If you like your wildly over priced healthcare , you can also enjoy the ever increasing deductibles.

        • This only applies to the individual market. In my state, only seven percent of the population is in the individual market. Nationally it is around 10%. My guess is very few young people are in that pool, as it is mostly professionals and the self-employed. That’s a middle-aged crowd and older.

          I’m not willing to place any bets on what happens with insurance markets. Our rulers have built a machine too complicated to reform or control.

          • No argument. Sales across state lines could bring some sanity, but continued payoffs to politicians of all stripes will push that prospect well into the future. Happy New Year Z. BTW, completely off topic, concerning your podcasts: You have a well modulated voice that amplifies reasonableness in your presentation. Listening to you is effortless. Please say hello to Taquan.

          • Thanks. Happy New Year.

            It’s funny, I don’t think I have a good speaking voice, but I have gotten better as I’ve been doing it. The trick, it seems, is to maintain an even pace. The temptation to rush when speaking into the mic is almost overwhelming. I’ve started using the software to slow the tempo, which seems to help.

        • You’re just proving Z right. There was a huge bureaucracy built to administer the ACA, and that isn’t going anywhere. What you’re actually describing is the fates of the exchanges.

  18. Thanks for all your work keeping this blog going Zman. I was turned on to your work by your commenting over at Steve Sailer’s blog.

  19. So how do you think the elections will ultimately turn out?

    I’m predicting -10 for the GOP in the House but +6 in the Senate.

  20. Excellent. I look forward to the podcasts, great listening while I am in the office at home here. I predict this site will expand as people like me recommend it as top of the list. If Uncle Remus likes you, you are progressive thumping good.

  21. 1. Trump will be impeached

    2. Democrats will make massive gains

    3. Nationalist parties will be roundly defeated in Europe because of their opposition to diversity

    • And socialism will take hold in every country on earth and we will all live happily ever after.

    • 1. The Democrats will have to take the Senate and get enough Republicans to vote with them. Both are doubtful.

      2. Massive? Based on what? They might take the House, but too many Dems are up for election in the Senate. You are predicting a wave year which rarely happens. Trump is not that unpopular. Remember all politics are local. You can’t generslize from one or two states. A massive recession might do it, but the very opposite is the trend.

      3. Huh? What are you smoking? The Europeans hate diversity because they are a collection of nations with a long history. Nationalist parties are gaining, not losing.

      I think you are just trying to be provocative unless you can articulate the reasons for your predictions.

  22. Lose all 162 games! Not likely. Suppose they have a 95% chance of losing any one game, and the all the games are statistically independent. Then there is about two and a half chances out of 10,000 they will lose all 162 games. Of course this model not realistic because the games are not all independent as the team remembers past games. A string of loses will could cause them to get discouraged and bump up that loss probability. On the other hand, a losing streak could provoke corrective action improving their play. We need a more realistic model to do forecasting, but I think your prediction is way off.

  23. I predict the beginning of a cooling trend will cause global warmists to shift their theories to claim carbon emissions block the sun’s rays, or some other ridiculous explanation, and then claim that 97% of scientists agree, in complete contradiction to their previous certainty. The 180 degree shift will occur with no shame or doubt.

    • They’re already way ahead of you, unfortunately. For several years they’ve been labeling any kind of extreme weather as “anthropogenic global climate change.” You’re right: no shame or doubt.

      In spite of that, best wishes to all the Z-fans for an excellent 2018!

  24. It won’t be the Yankees that lose all 162 games, it’ll be my San Diego Padres.

    Love the blog, Z. Happy New Year!

  26. I look forward to seeing the NFL felons on the walmart checkout line with their EBT cards in hand.

  27. I predict Colorado will have the worst January snow in 30 years. Aspen goes on Prozac alert.

  28. I predict the femzombies will be blindsided by a tsunami-sized male backlash largely fueled by flipped liberal males who were accused, but denied due process. Immune to irony, those benefiting the most from affirmative action laws, white women, will set the wheels in motion to bring it to an end.

    • Spot on about the biggest beneficiaries of affirmative action. And they seem to be blithely oblivious to it, and how destructive it is to their ability to form families, as well. There aren’t enough beta males to go around to be Mr. Mom. Not so bad being superwoman up until you hit 45. Then the fatigue sets in, productivity wanes, and it’s a total grind getting to retirement. No wonder they want the welfare state and immigration, too. Problem is, it was designed when men were the breadwinners and male type productivity the norm.

  29. Prepare to be gobsmacked with a fistful of wet tea leaves.
    There will be (daca) amnesty for illegals before the end of January.
    Happy Fuckin’ New Year!

    • My advice is to never get preemptively disappointed. Guys like Spencer and Hunter Wallace seem to think the way forward for their movements is to get angry now about things that may or may not happen in the future. It’s borrowing against the future that comes with a big interest penalty.

      I’ll wait to see what happens and then respond accordingly.

  30. As a half-assed Red Sox fan I appreciate the Yankee prediction 🙂

    Funny you should mention the electric bicycles. Seems to be an uptick in their media exposure.

    Happy New Year to you and yours and thanks for the work you do here at the Z – man blog. !

  31. On a serious note, though- you did very well with the 2017 predictions, and the 2018 ones are pretty good looking, too.

  32. That the Yankees will lose all 162 games is one of the silliest things ever since they will have beaten the winless Red Sox multiple times.

  33. 100% agree on the House/Senate. Too many House races for the GOP to put all the fires out, so to speak. Gerrymandering will save them from losing the majority, however. But the numbers favor the GOP (by sheer chance) in the Senate because more Dems are up for re-election this time around. The media will portray the gains in the House as a “mandate” that America as a whole hates Trump.

  34. Reasonable predictions.

    Except the one about the Yankees. That’s just pure wishful thinking.

  35. Happy New Year Z and all .. have enjoyed your work, there is a logical sensibility to it that I personally find refreshing and it makes me think !

    • Dansidea – I agree, great blog. Thank you, Zman.

      One quibble; David Fischer’s Albion’s Seed is too important a work to not read, Zman. It looks longer than it really is, about a third of its volume taken up with footnotes and historiography. It’s the best history book on America’s beginning that exists. Explains so much about who we are and why we do the things we do. Hope you read it some day.

      • re: Albion’s Seed

        Reality has eclipsed Albion’s Seed as a NEW RELEVANT screed is needed. I propose some scholar write Mexico’s Seed including all of Latin America’s and the Caribbean’s Seed written in both Spanish & English on facing pages. Ok, just in Spanish is fine as the Democrats to gain votes will soon make Spanish America’s legal Language.

        Dan Kurt

  37. I predict that Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Swartzenegger will get into fisticuffs at a high end Hollywood venue. This will prove Jean Dixon’s decades old prediction correct at last and spur a Casesy-esque revival of interest in her works.
    Happy new year!

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