2019 Predictions

Most of the predictions for the coming year have something about Trump and his agenda, as he faces a divided Congress. What will be revealed is the Congress is not so divided after all, as both parties will boldly lock shields to thwart the Trump agenda. The House will spend the year issuing subpoenas and holding hearings so their more clownish elements can perform for the cameras. The Senate will go on strike, doing nothing other than quietly pushing through Trump’s appointments to the Federal bench.

The Mueller probe will take a different turn in 2019. Now that it has been established as a semi-permanent oversight office, charged with keeping Trump from doing anything, the cover-up of the FBI subversion will be completed. All Congressional inquiries will end and the IG reports will contain nothing. Team Mueller will then turn to watching everyone working in the White House to make sure nothing can be done without the approval of official Washington. Team Mueller will be the shadow cabinet going forward.

The race to see who succeeds Trump in 2020 will be where the action is as the Democrats start to get serious about building their field. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris will be working the donor circuit, using exploratory committees to help build their brands in early states. The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary are just 13 months away. Elizabeth Warren will turn out to be Howard Dean in a dress, as her campaign will make a lot of noise in the media, but not appeal to actual voters.

Because the Democrats will be shifting their focus to winning the White House in 2020, the censorship trend will take a different turn, as the tech giants begin to censor the Left. Look for the social media companies to begin cracking down on the BernieBro wing, in an effort to boost the standing of party approved candidates. Suddenly, groups like Antifa are going to find themselves without the protection they have enjoyed. They were always corporate tools, they just never knew it. In 2019, they find out who signs their checks.

The volatile bear market will continue as the financial world adjusts to some big new realities. One is the white retirement will quicken, slowing the flow of cash into retirement funds. Second, the Fed will continue to unwind its positions, thus raising the value of cash, while managing a mild deflation in asset values. Home prices will start to fall in certain markets and categories. The great demographic turnover has begun and the financial world will begin learning why no one cares about the Mexican stock market.

The world will start to notice that the Chinese economy cannot transition to one reliant on domestic demand fast enough to avoid a correction. China built its economy on currency manipulation and exploiting loopholes in global trade arrangements. Those loopholes are now closing. The Fed and ECB are much less tolerant of currency manipulation. The transition to a more normal economic model will require breaking more than a few iron rice bowls. That means China will get more authoritarian in the near term.

Theresa May will not get her fake Brexit bill through the Commons. Instead, there will be a second referendum later in the year so the Brits can vote correctly this time. The original deadline will be suspended pending the outcome of the new referendum, which will be rigged to make sure the remain side wins. Theresa May’s government will fall and new elections will be held. All concerned will accept a Tory defeat as the price that must be paid in order to defend British democracy.

On the Continent, populist unrest will give momentum to the Three Seas Initiative as part of a corrective to the European project. This year will see two camps emerge with one favoring the decentralized model championed by Poland and another camp favoring a centralized model with Germany in charge. The irony of the decentralized model being favored by all of the former communist nations will not be lost on anyone. The great test for both camps is their approach to immigration, which is becoming untenable.

Cord cutting will begin to have a real impact on the sports entertainment business. The rapid growth of American sports was driven by television money. That television money came from the cable monopolies that were given the right to tax households for content they would not otherwise purchase. Cord cutting and the demographic changes mean fewer households willing to pay the Hollywood jizya. This is the year when college and professional sports leagues begin to feel the pinch.

Finally, this is the year when serious questions about the authenticity of the Facebook business model go mainstream. For years, everyone has accepted their word, as far the number of users looking at ads on the site. Every six months they have to apologize for another “bug” in the metrics that overstated their claims. No one really knows how many humans actually use the site and advertisers have no way to know if humans really view their ads. This year people begin to wonder if Facebook is on the level.

136 thoughts on “2019 Predictions

  1. New Year’s isn’t the same now that Guy Lombardo and his band no longer usher it in … but hey, it’s still good. Best to the Zman and the whole gang of commenters here!

    Let’s keep our thinking caps on while we get to work.

  2. This will also be the year when it becomes clear that FB is a Boomer/Gen-x site, with no appeal to the younger generations…Since the Boomers are starting to die off, the business model is kaput.

    • My teenager stepdaughter said that about FB several years ago. No one her age (she’s 18 now) appears to use FB because, as she so delicately phrased it, it’s for “old people.”

      No one in her dorm appears to have a tv either, even though the rooms are all rigged for free CATV.

  3. I have trouble believing that the Brits will stand for a redo Brexit referendum. I pretty much agree with everything else. The nationalism of the former Warsaw Pact countries is no surprise to me. Their nationalism was the death knell of Comecon, the USSR’s attempt at something like the European Economic Community. They probably look at Germany the same way they looked at the Soviet Union. After all, half of Germany, including their chancellor, was communist back during Comecon. Meet the new boss…

    • The one benefit of decades of “isms” trying to destroy your national identity is you emerge with a stronger national identity. Funny how that works.

    • The UK offered minimal resistance when Parliament passed gun bans in 1988 and 1997. If you are a (rare) firearms owner in the UK that publicly supports having “rights”, the police have a tendency to declare you suddenly ineligible to own firearms.

      Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson are controlled opposition. Non-controlled opposition tend to be loons. Not looking good.

      • If I was a Brexiteer I would encourage people to go around singing or humming “There Will Always Be An England”.

      • The gun ban is not the same as Brexit;people have felt VERY strongly about Brexit for decades.

        I think the British elite looks worn out and I’m not sure the EU wants a country with tens of millions of disaffected Britons inside it.

    • I think Zman has it right on Brexit. The Brits will stand whatever their masters shove down their throats. This time the elites will be paying attention*. There will not be another screw-up.

      * Just as the US elites will make sure that there will never be another 2016.

    • Doc, I don’t see the Will to Resist in Brit subjects, and perhaps the word “subject” says it all. They’ll do what they’re told.

      • And says it wrongly. The concept of “subject” was abolished in 1993 since when all Brits have been citizens.

      • Less compliant than you lot with your flags everywhere, having to pledge allegiance at school every day, and constant admonishments from your betters about how “that’s not who we are!”.
        Imagine defining a people by one word! You citizens have done nothing to defend your own country.

    • I think he was being sarcastic with “vote correctly this time”. 😉 That’s certainly what our “betters” want.

    • They won’t and they will make a stand here. We know full well that our deep state and corporate partners want a second referendum to “get it right this time” and we further know that it will be as rigged as a 18th century tea clipper. But there will be serious civil unrest if they try it. HMG has already ruled out a second referendum not because they don’t want it but because they fear that it could tear the country apart. It will.

  4. Predictions for Utah:
    Mit Romney will continue to shriek hysterically at Pres. Trump, jump on piano benches and clutch his pearls. His dance partner Mia Love got booted (leaving us with the farting pot, er, parting shot that we are all bigots, misogynists and bad people) so Mit will continue the solo hysterical dance. Watch for him to “love the world, invite the world.”
    Salt Lake City will continue to grow the homeless population and Vibrant crime. It would be rude to notice the homeless other than hold hands and invite more, and rude to notice who is doing most of crime. More dead Beckys this year. But don’t notice. More LGBTQTPedo parades and more illegal anybodies in Salt Lake City as the legacy people continue to walk on their lips through broken glass to demonstrate penitence for being whitey white white bad white. More “love the world, invite the world.”
    This winter…or the next…or the next…will get really cold..and the wild horse population that doubles every 4 years will face starvation and die-off. Madeleine Pickins and most of the Hollywood ninnys will demand the Federal Govt. turn a couple million acres into a horse national monument for them to die in and you can’t set foot in. Heads Up:
    T. Boone just divorced her so she may have even more time on her hands to cause trouble.
    At the end of 2017 Pres. Trump rejiggered the bill Obummer passed (land grabbed 1.4 million acres creating the Bears Ears National Monument) mostly undoing it. Mass hysteria ensued. Meaning the land is exactly as it was prior to the end of 2017. Meaning the land is still there and the Federal government still owns it. If you like to wear Patagonia clothes and go hiking, what the president did was make it allowable for you to hike there. Otherwise, you just had to go stand on the road and look at it.
    Once the land is declared a national monument, it’s closed. And I mean closed to ranching, mining, and development — but also to you. Don’t you dare pitch a tent there. This is not a park. Conservationists will be relieved to learn that the land in Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante no longer designated as national monuments will still belong to the Federal government and will continue to be protected from development and exploitation. The difference is: you just might be able to use it.
    Warren Jeff’s FLDS will continue to expand up and down the Hurricane Fault from southern to central Utah, loaded with oodles of ill begotten tax payer money (welfare, food stamp fraud and more fraud than Carter’s has pills, plus none of them paid property taxes) buying up property, businesses, ranches and big trucks. Hey, the good news is if this keeps up, you guys can have three wives with big hair and long dresses! (My husband says he can’t cope with more than one of me!) Hmm…will see.
    New Year predictions from the land of screaming red foxes, antelope and Navajo red sandstone!

    • PS: At the start of the new year, check your concealed carry CCW expire date. Time for me to renew! Make a new years resolution to take more time to practice with the damned thing and spend some patient time cleaning them.
      Utah prairie dogs (thousands and thousands of them) are on the endangered species list. Do Not even think of molesting (yuck!), generally annoying or messing with them. However if the world goes to hell, I have wondered if they would become tasty if soaked in milk, or brined, then a tasty teriyaki marinade with garlic and pineapple juice in the slow cooker. Just wondered. Then I hum a little prairie dog song rather like Poo sings his cloud song. A soft lilting hum as I plan recipes.

      • Would think they wouldn’t taste much different than squirrel, which I recall from childhood was not bad stewed or pan fried with salt, pepper, onion and garlic.

      • Isn’t the concealed carry permit the initial stage of gun registration and an infringement on our 2 nd amendment rights ?

    • The only reason why Mitt Romney ran was to sabotage any part of Trump’s agenda in the Senate. With a 53-47 split, Mitt effectively is neutered as it is unlikely he will get any opportunity to be the swing vote that gets to destroy anything that Trump proposes (see: John McCain and the awful health care reform package of 2017). So he’s just going to be a media talking head instead, going in front of any camera possible to denounce and bemoan the latest thing Trump does. That way the media can dutifully respond with a “fractured party plagued by infighting” while ignoring the Democrat circus as the primaries get underway.

        • J…..life is messy! I live in a mostly Mormon suburb and it is wonderful. No third worlders or Vibrants fixing their cars in the middle of the street and leaving abandoned the car relics, no trash scattered around, a few fireworks last night then done respectfully shortly after midnight. The kids are actually nice to us folks over 50. Should I have the luxury of growing old in this country, nursing home staff won’t beat me with a truncheon, steal my chump change nor snuff me with a pillow. Before Christmas, 15 sets of neighbors came by delivering goodies and wishing us well. This is my daily life and it is very good! Mormon politics stinks. Unfortunately they are sinking their own boat. When their boat sinks I won’t be around. Am grateful for what works here. I scream at Mit Romney on the TV and arguable ideology I just shelve away. This world back here is about as safe and nice as it gets! Plus stunningly beautiful country in which to escape. LIFE IS MESSY!

          • Range, people don’t understand how absurdly clean and polite Mormon culture is.

            Unfortunately, their outreach to the nations has brought the Diversity to the fore. Ogden is getting really spooky.

            Diversity destroys everything, but Lance E was right yesterday, there’s no going back. They’re here and not going away.

          • People can be removed by force by a new elite though removing the existing elite will require a lot of effort , sacrifices and some big changes in the way things are done.

            The Right however in the US is trying to fight a religious movement when they don’t even have an ideology or anything like a belief set . They have the numbers and skills to win a fight but not the will simply because it doesn’t believe in anything and stand for much beyond abortion bad m’kay and that’s far from universal .

            Until this changes and the Right is willing to say “these are the new rules, anyone disobeying them will be punished.” and be able to motivate people to fight for that they’ll fail

            Its made doubly complicated by disagreement in the ranks on many issues

            As a personal example I’m pretty sure I’d rather not share a polity with the Deus Volt crowd at this point and that if it came to a fight, they’ll kill me and my LDS and Heathen friends if they get a chance.

            This makes cooperation tenuous and nobody much is pushing the sane goal, lets each have our own little nations

            A last bit, one thing the Right and Left have in common is they are avoidant of responsibility and accountability and prefer to pass it off on someone else either in Libertarian, Corporate or unaccountable global or other organizations

            Its understandable, modernity is fiendishly complex and few on either side have the breadth of understanding to rule

            Still this kind of thing is why we have so many problem, lack of accountability and responsibility

            If anyone wants to rule effectively and not by anarcho tyranny or rule by black robes they are going to have to step up and do it

            A simple example.

            Want a death penalty and can’t find or train a hangman than the Judge who passes the sentence or the governor should do it. No mask, look them in the eye, state publicly who is dying why and man up

            We are no where near K selected for that but we need to be.

            Once we get enough on our own side willing to take responsibility, to change decisions for rational reasons and is willing to suffer whatever it takes to get that power for their ideology we have a chance

            Otherwise all you can do is just to push the existing power base back to a bit saner and go poolside

          • A….thanks for your observation! I am a non-Mormon choosing to live in Mormon land. Clean and polite is their world. But try to tell most people in my world about the dangers of working in downtown Oakland as I did, or walking the streets of San Francisco as a tourist and sidestepping turds and needles and psychotic crazy people running at you, well..I get the deer-in-the-headlights look. When I push reality any harder I get the angry don’t want my bubble burst look. Have shocked local women who quickly change the subject. Human beings cannot take much reality, especially back here. Their be nice to everybody world is quickly smacking up against reality.
            As for Ogden, it’s smacking up against drugs and meth. First generation Polynesians go to church. The second generation Polynesians often join gangs. What people outside of Utah don’t understand is the church is a global church, not solely a Utah church culture or even a national church. There are more church members from Central and South America than in North America. The people from Central and South America are Marxist light politically, pay tithing for those big temples and therefore the church will not oppose open boarders. So the church politics manifest as “love the world, we are all refugees now, invite the world.” A friend and local adult missionary was recently teaching English as a Second Language to illegal Hispanics using church materials and time. To me that is flagrant disrespect of the rule of law of the land. Unfortunately the LDS church knows which side of the bread is buttered. The plus side is again…clean and polite, little chaos, great hospitals and only 3.5 million people statewide, most of those in the Salt Lake corridor. I’ll take this anytime over my lifetime in the SF Bay Area. I jettisoned 100 years of my people to choose southern Utah. My neighbors all own guns. Should the Fed. Govt. push gun control and the church allies with the Feds, the church may split in half in Utah.We shall see!

        • January 2: Yes after reading about Mit’s January 1 hysteria, can’t blame you. First thing basic husband said this morning after the am news. Sounds like you. PS Flake isn’t a Mormon, just a RINO McCain type.

    • Grand Staircase-Escalante!!

      Isn’t that the monument created by Bill Clinton to pay off his Indonesian campaign donor, because it contains fuel-grade (hard) coal? That little treason allows that Indonesian (really, a ChiCom) to monopolize fuel-grade coal for quite a few decades.

      Another Clinton who should be in prison….

    • Just checked the headlines. Good Grief! Mittens couldn’t wait and had to cut loose with all his pompous RINO hysteria at Trump on New Years Day! Damn it all….another McCain. What an insufferable ass!

  5. I think the run-up to the 2020 election is going to push a lot of normie, mainstream conservatives into our camp, if anyone besides a white guy like Beto O’Rourke or Biden is put up as the candidate. Chuck Schumer (with his intransigence on the Wall) is creating newly-minted “anti-Semites” faster than Ford made model-Ts. The leering, Saurian cretin just looks like he’s always ten seconds away from developing a prehensile tongue with which he can grasp gentile babies. The media’s incessant coverage of Ocasio-Cortez (a freshman congress critter, for God’s sake) is also a bit of a godsend and may help create some real fault lines and lead to fewer conservatives clinging to the Ben Shapiro/Talk Radio end of he spectrum.

    • Schmuck Schemer (D-Wall St) is like a Nazi propaganda poster come to life.

      Ben Shapiro was the evil kid in “Omen.” The number of “conservatives” who follow the little twit is blackpilling. Same tribe, same goals, patriotard America.

      • I’m going to be an optimist and attribute it to baby steps. Ben Shoahpiro is shameful but he is better than the conservative heroes of yesteryear like Bill O’Reilly, Glenn Beck, and Sean Hannity. Here’s hoping that people will transition away from him like they did towards him over the next few years.

    • On Christmas day, Damascus was lit up with Christmas lights. Every Christian church was packed with joyous celebration… so Israel bombed the city, even tried to get two civilian airliners taken down like they did with IL-20.

      So Micheal Savage is being pushed off the air, while the Littlest Chickenhawk and the Shrieking Housewife (Mark Levin) are demanding we keep killing all the Mideast Christians with Iz’s ISIS allies.
      They want to Eretz Israel behind a Kurdistan front. “Kurdistan” was Christian Greater Armenia, until the Kurds murdered them all and took the Armenian Highlands.

      Every dual passport, maybe every diaspora and “survivor” should go then and bravely defend their ethnostate! There is a reason their vassal, Islam, is called “the other Abrahamic religion”!

      I used to support Israel, but no more. Not after this. No. More.

      • Yes, Old Yeller Levin has been quite emphatic about keeping lots of US troops in the Levant. But he’s crafty: he almost never mentions Israel while he’s screaming about the poor, poor, poor, Kurds, or how the Russians can now fire missiles at the USA from Damascus.

        No wonder he had to merge with the other wackobird Boeckh. (But I give Boeckh credit for his excellent series on Progressives.)

  6. Prediction 2019> First arrest and possible death of a bio-hacker caught mixing the 9 strains of H5N1 flu repeatedly in same ferret test animals, allowing nature to rapidly evolve the airborne version of H5N1 bird flu. Luckily he kills himself by accidental contact exposure before liftoff.

    Public panic at thought of more psycho’s joining in with CRISPR-CAS9, bent on species redemption – if Ted Kaczynski (IQ 167) had crispr in 1978, he would have iced us all.

    • That’s bold. If true I’ll add a codicil , we’ll never hear about it.

      That said most of what is Kaczynski’s manifesto is basically correct and the only way to keep the ills in check is for the elected and appointed to make responsibility and conserving job #1.

      There isn’t a whole lot of that going around on either side.

    • Damn.
      White people bad.
      Who knew?
      Can we just retire to our own enclaves so we don’t endanger anyone else?
      Didn’t think so.

  7. Pretty solid predictions, Z Man.

    Per my comment yesterday, I do think that we’re going to see a second wind of the #NeverTrump movement emerge in 2019. Like the first round, it will be completely astroturfed, but it is designed to take advantage of the paralysis that has been inflicted on Trump by an uncooperative Congress and swamp creatures running the administration. Mostly consisting of the castaways of the GOP from 2015-2018, the goal will be to try to convince the conservative base to re-embrace neoconservatism and Chamber of Commerce-style neoliberalism. While it won’t work, the media will go nuts promoting who is going to be the primary challenger(s) for Trump in 2020. The focus of the new #NeverTrump will be to try to blame everything on Trump: the bear market, the congressional gridlock, the swamp doing what the swamp does, etc. Nothing new about that but it will be done entirely from the “right.”

    Much like the first #NeverTrump movement, it will never gain traction with the public but it’s an attack from another angle that Trump will have to deal with this year and the next. In case anyone believes that it never went away, what I mean by the second wind is that various publications, PACs, etc. are going to get an influx of cash from the GOP donors who have virtue signaled that they will no longer be donating to the party as long as Trump is in charge. So guys like the Koch Brothers will be ones funding this new venture. Lots of cash and lots of media attention, but loathed by the voter base.

  8. White Girl are believe their gender is women therefore made them as “minority” who oppressed by white men

    prominent white girl belief is Gender issue (me too movement) will give them a high social position when white men are destroyed

    Minority, especially black and Latino girls who have negative wealth won’t accept white girl as same team

    Also minority who happened to be male wants good-looking white trophy wife not a competitor

    this part what white girl today don’t know about that they are useful to Anti-white side as weapon not the partners

    It’s interesting to see when white men’s social position fall apart and white girl going down together

    white girl will become valuable property in near future, but that’s all

    Feminism was always about Evil racist white men just as much as Communism

    It will despair soon as white men are defeated permanently

    So basically white girl are doing what misogynist wants

    self-destruction on well-being as women due to abolishing social protection

  9. If May gets a guarantee on a short term backstop her deal will get through, don’t underestimate many peoples loathing of Corbyn and his openly communist and terrorist supporting colleagues.

  10. Had an interesting conversation last night with an ex Kerry operative who thinks Warren has all the voter appeal of scabies. Her theory is Warren is getting out early to raise a bunch of money–there is no shortage of idiots that will writer her a check–then be able to play king/queen/Mx maker with her “bank” as the primary race tightens down.

    • Warren knows he expiry date is coming up. Her senate seat is the “Kennedy seat” and Joe Kennedy III is ready to take back the family inheritance. Warren needs to find a new gig. I predict she will be the Al Gore to Kamala’s Bill Clinton.

      • Warren’s great contribution will be to remind white women that they are not welcome in the club. Their votes and money are welcome, but if they want power they need to have sufficient levels of oppressed minority status. It’s not like Fauxcahontas came up with that simply because she thought it made her look cool. She read the writing on the wall, and realized she couldn’t get a job without it. That’s going to increase next year. I saw a report that some little town in CA, bunch of white people, canceled their Women’s March because it didn’t have enough “representation”. Too many competent white women. Expect more schisms in the sisterhood as white women are shoved aside in favor of less competent women and men posing as women.

        Warren is on a melting iceberg, and is jumping to safety early.

        • That was the city of Eureka in the far north of California’s coastal region. It’s a town that is literally 90% white. The cancellation struck many observers, regardless of political view point, as nothing more than a face-saving exercise since they could not garner support for enough people to show up in late January in a cold, wet place just to wave signs and make pious SJW noises in a town that won’t likely appear in the news unless wildfires or an earthquake devastates the town.

    • Warren isn’t stupid, she’s nutty but not stupid. She was smart enough to notice that whites are a 3rd class people in college in terms of access and rights, even in terms fo admissions.

      So she marked American Indian on her college admissions form and the rest is history. It shows just how many doors are automatically opened for minorities.

      In a lot of ways I respect her much more than most alt-right thought leaders who run around with a begging bowl. Warren had enough guts to simply mark “American Indian” where it mattered and she ended up a U.S. senator. She’ll retire a wealthy woman and enjoy the rest of her life.

      She worked the system instead of pissing and moaning about it.

  11. The democratic primary is going to be the exciting thing. It’s going to be Biden or that other guy just like him. They can’t use a diversity bid like Harris or warren because that will galvanize trumps base against them. They can’t let it turn into diversity America versus middle America. Trump will be weakest against another white male, and it’s very critical, lethally critical that they beat trump this election. Because if trump wins a second term, he will gain a level up in terms of legitimacy and have the political capital to retaliate against the fbi and deep state. They can’t allow that. The “collusion” nonsense will not work twice.

    • It will be very difficult for the Dems to nominate a white male. It’s anti-white animus that gets blacks out to the pollls. It doesn’t matter that Trump’s base will be galvanized, because the Repubs will nominate someone from Conservatism, Inc, who will fulfill his role of gracious loser.

    • Biden will not run. In fact, expect him to announce his retirement from politics this year. He’s 77 this year. His many failed campaigns make clear he has no chance this time. He knows that.

      The early polling says Kamala Harris is the Bill Clinton of this cycle.

      • I could see her as a running mate for some white male. Not necessarily Biden, but orourke, Blum Berg, I don’t know the names. The democrats have the superdelegate system, so they basically control who gets nominated. I would think k Harris would be a suicidal option. Basically, it would say that the world is not as we thought it and both sides were okay with trump. With Harris as running mate, we get eight years of amnesty and then she will be perfectly poised to lead us into our brown future in 2028!

        • Yikes, watch out for Bloomberg.
          Their billionaire quietly started his exploratory committee before Warren, prestaging an NYC Giants-Yankees Battle of the Titans. The press would eat. that. up.

      • It’s important that you turn out to be wrong about this. Was looking forward to a season of Biden-Groper memes.

      • Let me dare to suggest that our only hope is to get, by any means necessary, a ‘special counsel’ for our side supervised by Acting Attorney General Whitaker. This would facilitate our side blocking all of the Congressional nonsense subpeonas and hearings by Schiff, Nadler, et al. He could next demand all the work done by Mueller and then insist a grand jury be empaneled. I would happily suggest a number of names of prosecutors for the Special Counsel to begin his work. We would probably lower unemployment a couple of tenths just by the number of ‘redactors’ we would need to ‘comply’ with Congressional game playing.

      • It’s gonna be the most admired “woman” in the country, Michelle. So what if she isn’t qualified. Neither was her husband.

    • If Trump wins a second term, there will be no change in Establishment/Elite thoughts or actions vis-a-vis Trump. None. However, they will be less openly resistant. They’re figuring that he will make a big mistake someplace along the line and they can cut off his balls at that time.

    • Biden won’t run. The Democratic party is now the party of anti-white male hating ethnics, open borders and welfare for all.

      We’ll get Kamala or some other affirmative action brown skin for top billing. At best maybe a white woman for VP.

      Bernie will be sidelined because he’s white.

      Trump will be primaried by a bunch of Conservative Inc pygmies again. The GOP will rig the primaries so it works against Trump so their puppet wins. We almost had that with Cruz who came close to stealing the primary.

      • I bet you’re right. I didn’t realize they could do that. Franklin pierce was the only president not nominated by his party for a second term and replaced by John Buchanan over pierces willingness to compromise on slavery, primarily his support of the Kansas/Nebraska act. It used to be fairly common, they did it with several Vice Presidents too. That’s another tack they could take—some neocon fart versus Harris.

  12. Drumf get impeachment and senate save his ass
    Legal and illegal immigration increase
    Economic growth slowing
    2020 Drumf lost in election

  13. National Review will publish “The Conservative Case for South African Land Exprorpriation without Compensation”.

  14. No Elon Musk? Does the end of the tax credit and $2 gas spell certain doom for a Tesla 3 that is 50% more expensive than the promised $30K MSRP? Apparently they’re asking employees to buy inventory, lol.

    • I think I’ve picked on Elon Musk enough. I was going tp predict Tesla goes bust this year, but it felt like piling on.

      • I suspect Tesla will hang on until one or two of the big three or four release their reasonably priced electric sedan. Hyundai’s release bears watching, but they’re not big enough to sink Tesla by themselves. The luxury makers like Mercedes or BMW probably won’t compete at the Joe Sixpack level. The demand is there as shown by the precipitous drop off of sedan sales. It would be a mistake for the automakers to assume they can force folk into SUV’s and higher profit trunks. The only thing that might save Tesla is for them to hire out manufacture of a consumer level Tesla. And no, Tesla “buying” Ford is a ridiculous pipe dream.

        • GM has released its all-electric Bolt. Ugly, small, not comfortable, priced around $35K after rebates (etc.). 250+ miles on full charge.

          Guess what? Nobody’s buying them.

        • It still boggles the mind that Tesla trades at $299/share. I read today that they’ve started cutting prices due to the loss of the government tax subsidies. On the up side, I see the model 3 quite a bit around my neck of the woods, so there is a market for them. The tough part is getting past the cult-of-Musk. You have to read reviews carefully to find out that there are people having real problems with the cars (manufacturing defects). The cult-of-Musk will talk about it, but they bury it. Edmunds gives the car a decent rating, but if you read their “long term road test” blog posts they’ve had a large number of ridiculous problems with the cars…4 trips to the repair shop in 6 months…that sort of thing.

          At some point people who don’t belong to the cult-of-Musk are going to want to buy one, and if the mirrors fall off, or they can’t get the key-card to start the car, it’s going to flame out fast.

      • I think the powers that be are going to dump on Musk extra hard in order to deflect the small yet growing criticisms of Silicon Valley and Big Tech in general. They know that eventually the lumpenproles are going to turn against Big Tech, the goal is to delay that inevitable clash as long as possible. They tossed some morsels in the form of Elizabeth Holmes and Marissa Meyer, now its time to throw out some larger chum. Musk is the perfect candidate to throw overboard.

  15. The far-left is going to see Ocasio-Cortez as a disappointment, which would be helped along if Boomercons didn’t make awful criticisms of her.

    The House GOP minority will prove feckless with understanding parliamentary procedure, when they should be using discharge petitions for things like a stand-alone E-Verify bill. The GOP probably loses more seats in 2020 regardless of Trump winning or not.

    • AOC is sucking up all of the attention but I think quietly the Left is far more excited about Ilhan Omar, the hijab wearing Somali from Minnesota. She moves from a country full of people like her to a country full of people like me and then complains non-stop about the country that took her in.

      • Another grateful Affirmative-Action, protected-class person of color, this one with the triple crown of grievance glory: Black, Female and Muslim!

      • Agreed. AOC is an airhead who is prone to put her foot in her mouth, easily manipulated, and will just eventually become yet another lifelong brown politician. Omar and Rashida Tlaib are probably the heirs apparent to fill in the “woke, brown female” role.

    • I could see GOP making gains in 2020 just as easily. Many of the Democrats who won in former GOP seats in 2018 won on claiming to want to work with Donald Trump on issues like immigration, trade, etc. When they find out that they’re going to vote with Nancy Pelosi 95%+ of the time, they could easily swing back to the GOP, provided they are not neocons or cuckservatives.

    • She seems like a Sarah Palin of the left. A side show. She was s freak accident to begin with. We’ll see soon enough if the POC ascendency is really value added move to the blue area coalition or a stop-gap measure and pay-off scheme.

  16. Z’s predictions seem carefully observed and soundly reasoned. I’m not an astute enough player to guess whether any of them will come to pass, but the point of political predictions is not prophecy, it’s just a different species of analysis, and Z is quite excellent at analysis.

    Here’s a question for the more careful and astute observers here, something I can’t figure out myself…

    Trump has already failed as the sort of President we needed to have, and the sort we needed to succeed, in order to avoid a civil war. He was smart enough to get elected for the right reasons, but I’m not sure he understood he was literally the Last Chance. Maybe he’s just too old to understand reality?

    His successor is going to be a woman of little ability whose heritage in this country is half-Hindu, half-Reggae Sunsplash. Both of her parents were foreign Affirmative Action grifters. She has about as much genuine relation to America as the mayor of Guangzhou or the Uzbekistani Minister of Agriculture. Her party platform is essentially Kill the White Folks, Rape Their Women and Take Their Stuff. And to the world’s consternation, a large number of actual White people, not just (((fellow white people))), will actually vote for this.

    In order for Trump to have succeeded, IMO he needed to come out with guns blazing and nuclear bombs detonating on Day One, and he didn’t. Why not? Possible answers are:

    a) I’m wrong in that assessment,
    b) he knew what had to be done, but the Swamp and Hawaiian Federal Judge just check-mated him at every step of the way,
    c) the various (((palace eunuchs))) have successfully side-lined and isolated him, to the extent he isn’t really President, he’s just this old guy who kvetched on Twitter and yells at CNN, he’s President Abe Simpson,
    d) he thought he could lay careful groundwork to prepare the battle-space, but was caught off-guard when this proved impossible,
    or,
    e) he’s an astute player of the Old Game, but he’s just too old to understand that the Old Game is gone. viz., he showed up prepared to play Texas Hold-‘Em, but the new game is about pungee sticks and Pistols At Dawn.

    Anyone here know enough inside baseball to lay out why and how he went wrong?

    • She has about as much genuine relation to America as the mayor of Guangzhou or the Uzbekistani Minister of Agriculture…

      Or, for that matter, as much as the Mayor of San Francisco or New York City.

    • Not an astute observer myself. But I’d say Trump has failed due to two main reasons: ego/narcissism and ignorance/naïveté (wrt politics). What I would say in Trump’s defense is, Could one imagine any other newly elected candidate succeeding with the array of forces against him from day one?
      However, we seem to dwell on Trump’s failures—especially in light of our expectations—rather than his successes, which are not as obvious as court appointments or regulation rollbacks. In short, Trump’s candidacy and election has caused the forces that are really in control to drop all pretenses and reveal themselves and their allies and their tactics. The only thing preventing a major shift in the thinking of those we call “normies” is the lack of pain. That comes next.

      • Totally agree with everything said except 2nd sentence. The Trump enemy narrative has always been that: “Trump has a damaged personality [i.e. Narcissism] and that he is stupid”. I am quite sure Trump is extremely intelligent and I am inclined to dismiss personality assessments by people with an obvious agenda.

      • It’s easy to be a couch quarterback about the whole deal, but if you were President and you had the combined forces of the deep state, the media, and the political establishment of both parties and foreign countries against you, I doubt any reader could have done half as well. Whatever his faults, we shouldn’t let perfect be the enemy of good.

    • Ed;
      Not sure where all this ‘Trump is a complete failure’ stuff is coming from, much less that he’s a failure because he can’t prevent a civil war. These sort of apocalyptic predictions about a civil war were made about Obama too. And yet it didn’t happen.*

      Let’s look at where Obama was at the end of his first two years in office. It’s a sort of mirror image of now. He too had incited what proved to be unrealistic expectations among his followers. The seas were suddenly going to stop rising, etc. The Prog utopia was right around the corner. And yet, even though the swamp was ecstatically in his corner and his party held both houses of Congress, he’d got surprisingly little done.**

      So much so that Prog lunatics had to transfer all their unrealistic, utopian hopes and dreams to The Shambling Wreck from Chappaqua (?). Dreams denied is what made her surprise loss so bitter in ’16, IMHO. They have yet to recover their equilibrium.

      So let’s not be those guys. We’er supposed to be the ones in touch with history and human nature and not just our feelings.

      So my prediction for 2019 is that *some* more MAGA progress will be made against the swamp and the globo-uniparty. It will be disappointing to Team Trump in its meagerness but it will still be way too much for the Prog utopians who will continuously lose their chit over it, yet again, every day. This will continue to hold together Team Trump, just like it worked for GWB in year 3 as discussed a couple of threads ago. The difference this time is that it will be *some* progress for the nation and its patriarchy instead of for the new world order.
      __________________________
      *Not sayin that a civil war can’t happen, just that bit more skepticism is in order that one is either inevitable or imminent. There is still some ruin left: Financial collapse, though, and all bets are off.
      **Now I know that you-all’re going to hit me with Obamacare and you’d be right about its passing in ’09. But it’s pretty clearly a member of the walking dead right now.

    • I don’t even know what baseball is, but what people constantly forgets, is that nobody, not even Trump, believed he could win the White House. So all those things he said on the campaign trail, was just bluster, he never figured he’d be called upon to deliver. He just let his mouth run.

      One of the main reasons the Swamp is coming down on anyone airing anti-immigration sentiments, is that nationalism is political steroids. There’s an understanding amongst Swamp creatures that using nationalism is cheating, especially since the globalist won’t let you close the borders anyway.

  17. Zman, assuming your predictions prove correct, I would say that 2019 looks mildly positive to me.

  18. Trump will look to foreign policy to make an impact. Not sure how well it works out.

    A trade agreement with Brazil would be a good idea. The US, Brazil and Argentina produce almost all of the soybeans. That soy feeds the growing Chinese pork habit.

  19. I can’t ever recall feeling more pessimistic on a January 1st than I do today, not even January 1st, 2009 just days before Obama was sworn in. 2018 was the year when I finally gave up any hope of a political solution and now only hope things collapse sooner rather than later while we still have a demographic advantage. It would shock me to no end if we get to 12/31/2019 without either a major financial crisis or a new war or both. What optimism I do have comes from seeing more and more people realizing that the deck is stacked against us and the Constitution isn’t going to save us.

    Maybe I just need a nap to improve my outlook.

    • An advantage is more than a larger population. There is no minority group, or combination thereof, in the US that can hope to defeat a united white population—whether in peaceful competition or conflict. We are our own worse enemy.

    • Often the constant white noise of red pilling becomes almost unbearable, then I put on blinkers and rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic.

    • Same here. I think 2019 is going to be a pretty blackpilling year. The only good thing about it is that Trump will probably nominate yet another SCOTUS justice and the Democratic primary is going to be a huge cluster. We’ll laugh because otherwise we’ll be crying.

  20. The gubimint not funded previously remains unfunded for months and the unpaid departments and personel are eliminated. The Sec of Defense orders the wall/fence built by the Corps of Engineers in 6 months. In addition, persons residing in the USA without legal permission are ordered out. DoD takes over compliance. Federal courts go apoplectic but are appealed or not complied with. Democrats go apoplectic and pass impeachment. Trump supporters yawn and every one ignores those idiots. Impeachment is another dead letter aspect of constitution since these fundamental laws are no longer enforced. Mueller, Rosenstern, Comey, et al are arrested for sedition and held incommunicado at Gitmo. Trump goes before public laying out his hand and asking for a referendum on the above actions.

  21. Happy New Year Z. Keep it up in 2019. Always looking forward to your thought provoking posts (provoking in a good way :).

  22. If I may be so bold as to contribute an item to your post, I predict that 2019 will be the year in which the dissenter faction of the US population comes to grips with the reality that we are not going to talk our way out of the mess we are in (atrocities in South Africa will likely be the trigger). Basic survival instincts will begin to kick in and serious men will begin the task of planning for an tough fight in the coming years. It’s 1773 all over again.

    • South Africa blowup and white genocide is a good wake up call. Will be interesting to see what we as a nation do when it happens.

    • Nyet, you are too early. This will take at least another 5-10 years to percolate for the simple fact that we still have it WAY too good right now. The intransigent cult of prog will need to push people into a corner where they are in danger of financial ruin or physical threat.

      Then you will see what, if any, taste for blood the remaining Euro descended American populace has. Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see this pop off tomorrow, but if you follow the arc of human history it points to the conditions I named above as the normal catalyst for true revolution.

  23. In late September Z will receive a 3AM phone call. “Zman. This is George Will. I am your father.” After many long dinners and beach strolls with George, Z will secretly join Conservative Inc. and work to expose all his followers to the feds, in return for an exclusive blog at The Washington Times.

  24. Definitely agree with the second Brexit referendum. It has been my prediction since June 2016. Everything May has done was done intentionally in order to make the 2nd referendum a “necessity” in order to get it “right”. And once it is scheduled, whatever is necessary will be done to ensure that Remain wins.

  25. New Years Resolution: Dump Drudge Report (and look for better “news” site).
    Doug Ross @ Journal?

  26. Prediction:

    RBG dies. That cancer that spread to her lungs came from somewhere and generally when you get it there at her age, you don’t have long to live. When she croaks. The Left/Establishment will go nuts, I mean violently so to prevent any replacement of her corpse.

    Anti-fa isn’t going anywhere, Their primary use is to suppress whites and are the unofficial army of Democratic mayors across the country.

    Lastly, we’re due for a Black Swan. Trump was our last Black Swan and we’re due for another out of the blue event.

  27. The Zman, from yesterday:
    “He traded favors for promises, which is what stupid people do in politics. You trade favors for leverage. Person X needs a favor from Person Y. Person Y only agrees as long as Person X sends a hostage. That’s how politics works. it is how it has always worked.”

    How does he do it. HOW?
    Zman, you make this type of thinking seem obvious, but it’s not.

    I am a rather stupid man myself.
    A conservative friend and I were discussing how people think in the political or criminal arenas, and we could not begin to imagine how they perceive the subtle shifts and dodges in their strange world.

    Normal People Just Don’t Think Like That.

    (Now, on to today’s article with fear and trembling)

    • Normal people don’t think like that….agreed, but perhaps if your “circle of friends” were more of the criminal or political type then you’d understand more of how they think and act and how to effectively interact with them.

      Just thinking about a friend of mine who has worked in law enforcement for 40+ years. He can lecture about such folk and the discussion is always fascinating—like an anthropologist discussing primitive tribes in New Guinea.

      • Moreover, the Mafia (and Cartel) pay the politicos license fees for permission to operate in their territories.

  28. 3 years ago or so you wrote one of your best articles. The comment section of the post was a HOOT. I would suggest that another thread on the topic of “A recurring theme outside the fever swamps is the growing collection of things that everyone knows, but we’re not allowed to discuss” would be great.

    “Mokita”
    http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=4458

    If you revisit this topic or if you don’t — Have a Happy New Year regardless.

  29. My two cents’ worth: both sides will be fixated on the 2020 election cycle while real issues and problems go unresolved, or get pushed down the road. The masses will go along because they generally don’t have any choice in the matter until 2020. But some individual, some one with nothing to lose and an unwillingness to let things go on as they have, will read the handwriting on the wall and realize that unless there is a violent act that changes the calculus of all things political, nothing good will come in the future. New gun control laws take effect in California today and the already onerous and silly laws will drive more people to own guns illegally rather than not own any guns at all. Taxes and costs of living in blue states are rising and continuing to drive people out of these states to others where people feel more secure in their property and chances of success. So some whack job will find a way to engage in an attack that targets the center of Progressivedom. I’m actually surprised that we haven’t seen a OKC-like attack on a state office/agency/institution like those in California or NY given all the intransigence and openly anti-American policies implemented in such states.

  30. Trump is a “failure”? Really?

    1) Lowest unemployment since say 1999
    2) Best GDP growth since 2003
    3) Wages up for the first time since the 2001-03 recession
    4) Appointing right-wing activist judges to the USSC
    5) The travel ban which he fought for hard and won thanks to Neil Gorsuch.
    6) Tariffs on the Chicoms and getting out of the ruinous TPP
    7) Fighting for the Wall, well it will be a success only if he gets funding, of course but any other GOPee worm would have folded long ago
    Most imp of all
    5) Punching the shitlibs back as hard as they punch him.

    You can judge The Donald when “your side” gets elected to an important office with power……….. like municipal dogcatcher

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