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In the business world, all negotiations start with a central question. Is there a deal to be made that both sides will accept? There is no point in negotiating if one or both sides is not willing to strike a deal. Salesmen are trained to think about this question whenever they engage with a prospective client. Unless they can show that a sale is possible, they should not waste their time. In order for negotiations to make sense, both sides have to want to make a deal and think a deal is possible.
Related to the primary questions are the questions about the shape of the deal, as in what will both sides accept and what will they never accept. Negotiations are often about both sides coming to accept that they will have to take less than what they initially wanted in the deal in order to get the deal done. The two questions that loom over negotiations are “what would we like?” and “what will we accept?” The latter becomes the starting point of an agreement.
War is a form of negotiation. In almost all cases, the attacking side would prefer a negotiated settlement, but they determined that the other side was not prepared to do what was required to make a deal possible. One or both sides is unrealistic about what they can get and what they will accept. The war resets the negotiations. If one side wins convincingly, then they can dictate the terms of the final deal. The important thing about wars is they always end in a settlement.
This is the great puzzle in Ukraine. The war will end eventually. If the West is right and Ukraine is clearing the Russians from the field, then the Russians will have to accept the terms of the Ukrainian victors and their NATO backers. If the maps are right and Russia is slowly destroying the Ukrainian army, then the Ukrainians will have to accept the terms offered by Russia. More important, Ukraine’s Western backers will have to strike a deal with the Russians to close the books on the war.
Of course, the third option is some sort of stalemate in which both sides can either claim victory or deny being defeated. This seems to be the hope on the Ukrainian side, as they have broken off negotiations. Presumably, the West has promised unlimited arms shipments if the Ukrainians keep fighting. The logic is the Russians have plenty of weapons, but a finite number of troops, while Ukraine has unlimited troops but has a finite number of weapons, until now.
This is what makes the whole thing baffling. Before the conflict, the Russians demanded a return to the Minsk agreements. This was a set of protocols to bring peace to the Donbas, which had been in a civil war since 2014. Kiev had signed this deal in 2015 with the support of France and Germany, which brokered the deal. Kiev and Moscow would demilitarize the two sides, peacekeepers would be sent in and the two provinces would have elections and some degree of autonomy.
Compared to war, that looked like a great deal for Kiev, but for reasons that have not been explained, Kiev rejected the offer. Once the Russian army crossed into the Donbas, the Russians made a new proposal. Autonomy for the Donbas, recognition of Russia’s claims in the Crimea and the neutrality of Ukraine. That last part was in response to efforts by Washington to bring the Ukraine into NATO. Oddly, Kiev accepted this but rejected the other demands from Russia.
Here we are in the third month of the war and it is clear that the Russian deal, if an offer is coming, will be much different. The Kherson region in the south is preparing to join the two regions in the Donbas in demanding separation from Ukraine. There are rumors that Odessa is in negotiations with Russia to do the same. In the northeast, the Kharkiv region is rumored to be breaking away. This may simply be the result of the Russian occupation and elimination of Azov in the area.
Barring a radical change to the facts on the ground, the deal Ukraine can now get from any negotiations with Russia is much worse than two months ago. Rumors of Polish troops on the border with Ukraine, where many people speak Polish and identify as Polish, suggests the deal could get a lot worse in a hurry. This raises a rather important question. Why is Kiev and its Western backers, unwilling to make a deal? What deal do they think will materialize in a month or a year?
One possibility is Washington thinks Ukraine is winning and just needs time, which goes back to that belief she has unlimited manpower. Given the facts on the ground, this seems unlikely, but war makes people crazy. The leaders on both sides of the Great War staggered on sure they were about to break the other side. War often warps the ability of the planners to properly interpret reality. They stick to the plan despite the obvious failures of the plan. The Somme is a good example.
What this says is the only deal the West will accept is the total surrender of Russia, which conforms what the Russians have said from the beginning. Their reason for going into Ukraine was that Washington was planning to use Ukraine as a launching pad for war against Russia, both culturally and economically. What the Russians are now seeing is that there can never be a deal with the West. She will have to guarantee her own economic and territorial security.
What this means is that there is no walking back to some early point when a deal could have been struck between the sides. The West now demands unconditional surrender, which means they cannot relent on the sanctions. At some point that means cutting off all imports from Russia. The limited sanctions have sent prices soaring, which means Western leaders are committed to a massive reduction in the quality of life of the West in order to win this war with Russia.
The irony here is that the people who plotted this war, the neocons who control American foreign policy, appear to have made the same blunder Athens made in the Peloponnesian war. The irony is that the neocons are obsessed with that war, seeing themselves on the side of Athens. In that war, Athens recklessly attacked Sicily and was defeated at the battle of Syracuse. This eventually led to the over all defeat of Athens by the Spartans and the end of the Athenian empire.
A forgotten lesson of the Peloponnesian war is that Athens had many chances to make a deal with Sparta but could not stop provoking the Spartans. If the Athenians had viewed the conflict as a negotiation and set realistic conditions in order to strike a deal, she would have avoided disaster. Instead, she just assumed victory was inevitable, so no negotiation was required. In the end, Athens would prevail and the terms would be whatever suited Athens.
This seems to be the position of Washington and Brussels. Various leaders keep popping up demanding the unconditional surrender of Russia. They are making clear that they will fight forever. Given the deal they could have gotten from Russia just a few months ago, this new deal sounds dreadful, which suggests they are not the brilliant tacticians they imagine themselves to be. In the fullness of time, the Minsk agreements may look like the best deal that was ever possible in Ukraine.
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it’s odd that there is so little battle footage from ukraine.
I follow UA and RF channels and the RF channels have 100X more combat video and images. The Chechens really like social media so they do a lot of real-time stuff. The UA stuff tends to be repetitive and dated. The suspicion is that Russian air dominance limits the UA posting. Too many times UA forces have posted images on on-line only to be lit up by RF drones or artillery.
I just watched a half-hour video from the intrepid Alexander (the Englishman on the Duran). Those two Alex’s are doing yeoman’s work bringing forth the truth. Per Alexander, the Ukrainians have few young men fighting in certain areas (saving them for bigger battles to come?), so have resorted to middle aged and even older men forced into the cauldron. They are not trained, nor in shape to fight, and are getting mowed down like cannon fodder (which they are) by the Russians. This war would not be going on without the Neocons demanding that Zelensky keeps fighting to the last… Read more »
I have seen also the rumors of Polish troops on the Ukraine border. I figure the most likely reason would be sending NATO troops to “assist” in creeping fashion weapons transfers as Russia has said weapons in transit are targets. Shades of “advisors” in Vietnam and far more dangerous. This is what weakness invites. Even more troubling is the idea floating around that Ukraine “plus” NATO reduces the Transnistria sliver in Moldova next to Ukraine. Russia has only 3K troops or so, not enough to hold it if attacked with serious forces. [Background for those too young to remember, in… Read more »
[…] The Art Of The Deal […]
Kiev and it’s western backers (U.S.) refuse to make a deal because they’re overrated and not very intelligent. The people making decisions are in their positions because of nepotism, a good example is Victoria Nuland. These people can string together a beautiful sentence and use big words but they lack common sense and have horrible judgement. They can take an IQ test several times and brag about the highest score, but probably couldn’t screw in a lightbulb. They also have a deep hatred for Russians, and consider them backward and primitive. They’re having it blow up in their faces but… Read more »
Before the invasion, Team Brandon was talking about “limited incursions” and accepting that. They gave a green light. Then, Russia failed dramatically and spectacularly: Their airborne forces failed in at least three attempts to seize Kiev adjacent airports. They got their asses kicked thoroughly and had to leave in disarray around Kiev, and other northern cities. “Ukranian” i.e. US forces shot down plane load after plane load of Russian Airborne with impunity. Drones and Javelins decimated Russia armor stuck on the roads in mud season (they delayed to make China happy not harshing the Winter Olympics). “Ukranian” i.e. US forces… Read more »
You should stop watching Sean Hanntiy. None of this is even close to reality.
Thumbs up for an opposing view. What if the DR are the Athenians, picturing the rout of their hereditary enemies, the Cloud Clowns?
Still, the Zman’s weekend war news is the best, most succinct accounting I have to hand without having to digest amounts I don’t have time for. The service and clarity is much appreciated!
Anybody who has an hour or so of driving time in the next 2 or 3 days could usefully spend it listening to this interview of Scott Ritter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HI_26aU-c
In addition to Scott Ritter’s comments, an article by retired Swiss Army Colonel Jacques Baud is dispassionate and informative. He destroys the Gallant Ukraine And Its Gallant President myth by showing that the Ukrainians not only refused to take the Minsk Accords seriously–negotiating over autonomy for the Donbass within Ukraine–but they shelled and sniped at civilians and militiamen alike. He also suspects that in 2014 AND this year, the AFU planned to recapture the region. Colonel Baud’s report is available in French and English–in the latter case through a religious and philosophical website called thepostil.com. An English-language interview is available… Read more »
I don’t watch Hannity. I do read Pepe Escobar see here: https://www.unz.com/pescobar/the-moskva-riddle/ and also NBC (reported numerous places): https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015 Escobar noted that the sinking of the Moscva over 120KM from Odessaa and with serious radar and anti-missile defenses was likely only possible by NATO/US Orion platforms jamming the radar and sending out a guiding path to the missile, basically illuminating the ship. The idea that the Ukranians could do this on their own is laughable — they don’t have the men or resources or skills. Look at today’s strike on the Russian staff HQ in Donbas that narrowly missed Gerasimov… Read more »
“Correlation is not causation.” You are familiar with this precept, yes? Did the US sink that Russian ship? Quite possibly. Does that also mean they are responsible for the laundry list of other activities you listed? Not even a little. This absolutist thinking is what has utterly poisoned politics basically and you are now using it to indicate that the US is doing the vast majority of fighting in Ukraine and running black ops. If you cannot see the prima facia absurdity of that I don’t think I can help you. Training them? Yes? Supplying weapons? Yes? Maybe doing -some-… Read more »
I seriously doubt any upper echelon US politicians have been to keev. Sure, that’s what we’re being told, but why would anyone believe anything coming from this corrupt government and/or media?
is that you Colin Robinson?
I’ll bet Pelosi, Blinken, and Austin (not to mention senile Biden) have those evil Russians shaking in their boots. The US would have better leadership if names were picked at random out of the phone book.
Closer than your take, I’ve been a reader here since the begining and you seem to have gone off the rails here which is a shame as for so long you carried the torch.
You are on (or perhaps off prescribed) drugs. Where do you get this stuff? Where is the evidence of the 82nd AB in Ukraine?
Russia never dedicated the forces to take the country. They never intended to take Kiev. Their apparent strategy was to tie down forces defending the city so they could conduct military ops elsewhere.
Russia did a great service by intervening in Syria. In that country they defeated a US/Saudi/Israel alliance. For that reason only I wish them well in Ukraine.
Evidence: Brandon telling the 82nd Airborne that they would go to Ukraine and many had already been there. They gave him dirty looks as he was not supposed to say that. The problem with a senile old fart as President. He blurts stuff out he should not.
That’s not evidence that the 82nd is on the ground in Ukraine. That’s evidence that he may have: 1. either slipped up and told them what American upper brass MAY have planned for future military operations (if they’re insane enough to send in conventional forces to support Ukraine) or 2. he’s senile and simply made a gaffe in his old age We have SF on the ground there “advising” without a doubt but we certainly do not have conventional infantry operating in Ukraine. I know some guys in the 82nd from basic and they aren’t exactly known for always being… Read more »
“Then, Russia failed dramatically and spectacularly:
“Their airborne forces failed in at least three attempts to seize Kiev adjacent airports.”
Where are you getting all of this info? Do you have some source or sources where I might read? Or watch or listen?
Here is one account: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/02/24/captures-chernobyl-ukraine/4851645738981/ Russia tried three times, twice with the airport to the South and East of the city, and once with the one to the north and west, to capture an airport to bring in lots of airborne troops. Each time they failed, the helicopters with airborne assault troops were shot down, and armored columns could not advance. This was well covered in the early stages of the War by many, many sources. It was the most significant airborne invasion since Market Garden and like that a defeat. NATO estimates between 7-15K losses: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-military-recruiting-efforts-ukraine-war-1702593 US Losses in… Read more »
This is surely sarcasm…
No. It’s Whiskey. I skip his posts as a matter of course.
Thanks for the laugh.
fucking whiskey just wants everything to be a black pill. one week the chinese are going to sink the USM, the next week russia can’t fight effectively against ukraine. all shit all the time with whiskey. you just like sharing your personal pain with other people (which is why no one likes you in the real world). i’m glad your ex-wife cucked you with a bbc and raped you in divorce court; you deserve it.
No I am realistic. You certainly seem emotionally invested as much as those are invested in Ukraine. You certainly have an emotional response to what amounts to Russian losses and inability to create any real victory in the East so far. Russia and Ukraine are not my countries, other than an interest in military affairs and the avoidance of nuclear war (which I rate alarmingly high) I don’t really care much about them. I have never been married, though I certainly did far better than I ever expected based on my (then) good looks and demeanor. I am generally quite… Read more »
Calm down there, Baghdad Bob.
The Hollywood version of the war. Reality is Ukraine getting its ass kicked.
You are full of shit, Whiskey. Or drunk.
“conforms what the Russians have said from the beginning. Their reason for going into Ukraine was that Washington was planning to use Ukraine as a launching pad for war against Russia, both culturally and economically.”
I can’t find it again offhand, but yesterday someone (maybe on The Saker blog) posted documentation from usa dot gov showing the initial date on the current legislation to send billions in military aid to Ukraine was…. January 19th.
So, yeah, Russia was not exaggerating.
Inbetween Europe, India, and China? The largest consumer base on planet Earth, and they gots the goods.
Everything we have depends on shipping and a Chinese owned Panama Canal in an isthmus bottleneck.
That whole “protected by two oceans” thingie might matter in a different way, soon. We’ll have to invade Canada for raw material and Mexico for food. Our version of Ruhr iron mines and Sudenten-Czech farmland.
~ 25% of Mexican Citizens live and work in the US. We send school buses across the TX/NM/AZ border every school-day to pick up the anchor baby “citizens” to be educated at the expense of US border communities. How many people know that?
“That whole “protected by two oceans” thingie might matter in a different way, soon. We’ll have to invade Canada for raw material and Mexico for food. Our version of Ruhr iron mines and Sudenten-Czech farmland.”
Damn, the Fallout universe seems to be more and more realistic every day then.
“Rumors of Polish troops on the border with Ukraine, where many people speak Polish and identify as Polish, suggests the deal could get a lot worse in a hurry.” ?????????? Z, you have totally lost it! None of your “rumors” are particularly credible, but suggesting that Poland might use the threat of force to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory is breathtakingly idiotic, and makes you look like a complete fool. There is absolutely zero chance of that ever happening, and if you weren’t so in love with the sound of your own voice you would realize how ridiculous it… Read more »
Congrats Z! You have gotten big enough to get your own Sorosbot assigned to ZBlog!
JEB. Piss Off.
From what I’ve read, Polish troops are congregating towards the Ukraine-Polish boarder. One upon a time, what’s now western Ukraine was under Polish sovereignty. The Poles delegated control to Khazar rent/tax farmers.
NO one cares much about the people in that area, except that a certain peculiar people what them are killed. Would Polish soldiers get ordered to push east to grab land for Uncle Schmuck?
“Anyone here want to go on record and say this is something that could conceivably happen, and isn’t totally stupid?)”
Oh, go Keeve yourself.
How’s the Ghost of Keeeevvveeee doing today?
Shot down another Air Force?
It’s lies upon lies.
Dead allegedly. They picked some handsome Ukrainian fellow claiming he was the Ghost of Keev
Its of course still rubbish like snake island just in case like our resident Black Pill guy Whiskey you actually believe anything the media says.
What? Ukraine West was parceled up between Poland, Romania, Lithuania, several countries before.
UKR as we know it has only existed for 30 years. There’s a reason it was called “the” Ukraine, because it was a region, not a country.
Crimea, now, was bought and paid for by Tzarina Catherine over 200 years ago, with deed and title to prove it.
He does have a pleasant voice.
Well, if it’s his word against some obscure Internet schlub, and it is…
JEB not sure what will happen on the Polish, East Ukraine, border. But the supposition is not fantastical. A little history is in order. In WWII, Russia invaded Poland from the East as was their “agreement” with mustache man on the other side of Poland. Russia did not give all those Polish lands back at the end of WWII. Instead, there was a movement of the Western Poland border into Germany and (formally) Prussia. So there are indeed Polish people in the Ukraine along the border that probably still consider themselves Polish—not Russian/Ukrainian—and would be happy to live in Poland… Read more »
It is extremely fantastical. It’s been over 75 years since the war ended. A lot has changed! The thing is, we’re not talking about the possibility that Poland might somehow end up with a slice of Ukraine after everything settles down (remote, but not inconceivable), we’re talking about the government of Poland — a member of NATO and the European Union — taking advantage of what is widely seen as an ongoing war of aggression by Russia and using force or the threat of force (“troops on the border”) to carve off a slice. That’s the sort of thing that… Read more »
History didn’t end despite what some people have claimed. Territorial ambitions exist. Croatia took the Serbian Krajina in Operation Storm with assistance from your precious NATO, so the idea that they would not sign on for that sort of thing is nonsense. It was modern Europe and it was NATO.
You have difficulty imagining it because when NATO and the Warsaw Pact existed it was not possible for this to happen.
Now it can and NATO/EU are starting to fail.
JEB. Let me let me tell you what happens a lot—your emotional tirades. Your batting average wrt predictions is zero percent, yet you never admit you are wrong in any of your predictions, but seem to have plenty to say (aka emotional outburst) when someone else states what you disagree with. At this point you are little more than a troll and an annoyance.
Get a grip, take your med’s.
Grow up.
What predictions have I made that were wrong? I’m pretty sure there aren’t any, because I’m pretty sure I haven’t made any predictions, but if I’m wrong please let me know.
Dittohead lives matter.
What does the modeling tell us? Money printing = inflation = sharply rising prices = civil unrest = violence & chaos. Rising unemployment and hopelessness will motivate some toward tangible acts of rebellion, including gang & militia formation. LEOs will respond with sanctioned and harsh crackdowns. A match will eventually ignite an inferno, and white guys will start killing white guys in large numbers right here in River City. See Ukraine example. What stops this dynamic? Accountability does. When war comes to the front door of the disease cells, they will choose a fast exit over the other alternative. Think… Read more »
“Money printing = inflation”
Not necessarily. The indispensable factor is *confidence* in a currency, not the amount of it sloshing around the world.
I believe Milton Friedman would disagree: “A budget deficit is inflationary if, and only if, it is financed in considerable part by printing money”
Which seems to fit our current monetary policy.
Mayorkas plans openly to bring in 500,000 invaders PER MONTH, that’s 6 million per year.
They aren’t “vaccinated”.
Meanwhile, we are, our toddlers, even, are about to be, or we’re dying of despair.
War has been declared upon us.
The purpose of war, is subjugation and Replacement.
How long before the invaders are deputized and outnumber us?
they already are. Antif can kill with impunity
“Now if only we could determine some common factor.”
It couldn’t possibly be that they all have a right to emigrate to Israel after they’ve fucked up everyone else’s countries… could it?
Naw, couldn’t be… CNN never mentioned that.
More and more the evidence leads me to believe that B125’s spectacular conjecture is correct: Israel isn’t their first home, neither was Egypt, or New Babylon. They are preparing Khazaria, their found home after 70 AD, and Israel will be left to the Mizrahi branch, who never left it. This is their way. The US / NATO is their shield and benefactor, a modern Rome, or Safavid Persia, or USSR, or 2nd Dynasty Egypt, or Nebuchadnezzarean Babylon, or Ummayid Baghdad. Many examples. The Ukraine is rich, rich and depressed real estate, in a perfect bargaining position inbetween the coming Powers.… Read more »
From the Taki column: “This is where the Twitter drama clarifies things. Founded in 2006, the simple-to-use platform became popular with journalists, who tend to struggle with anything too complex for a toddler.” I have long held that Twitter is the real life implementation of the squaking earpieces from Harrison Bergeron: “…George, while his intelligence was way above normal, had a little mental handicap radio in his ear. He was required by law to wear it at all times. It was tuned to a government transmitter. Every twenty seconds or so, the transmitter would send out some sharp noise to… Read more »
This is a great analogy/literary antecedent. Faceberg used to pitch his web site as a “social utility.” Clearly, it was and is a Leviathan utility as well. The thing TPTB like about Twitter is the scaling out of Wall Street pump/dump Chinese whispers beyond the incestuous financial community. More suckers = more “growth”
The Ukraine-Russia conflict can’t end until the U.S. and Western Europe are able to re-focus their populations on some future (insert boogeyman) to distract them as to why their standards of living are rapidly decaying. The “Putin price increase” is corny and sad, but it’s something. They’ll try to get more mileage out of this like they did with Covid, until everyone shoulder shrugged at “Version 3-The Omicron.” They’re also thin skinned and petulant. How dare those Russians flout U.S. foreign policy proclamations. They’ll triple down just out of anger, because late state democracy is rule by women and gay… Read more »
The Cool-Aid has been drunk.
(To be fair to Cool-Aid I think it was technically a brand knockoff.)
“The Cool-Aid has been drunk.”
Not to worry; there’s LOTS more! And no lack of eager drinkers.
It’s got electrolytes!
Flavor-Ade; and the good news is, Jim Jones was Pelosi’s thumbreaker in securing real estate development deals for union labor, I believe.
Man have these crooks been breaking laws since forever.
The “war” is still in its initial stages. Just as other wars through history reach a point where public opinion must be formed into a cohesive mass through staged events, the Maine, the Luisitania, Tonkin Gulf and many others, public opinion will be molded here as well.
i don’t know, i get the sense that normies can only be bent so far, one way or the other. they are kind of like those toy klowns you could punch, and they would swing back up (bop bags?!).
Agreed.
Even the normies today are far more sophisticated than their ancestors, and far more suspicious of our leaders and media. Fooling them will take far more than poorly written hit pieces by slob journalists.
This war is already old; and the popcorn is being thrown and the derisive laughter is deafening as people watch that nutbag Pelosi meeting with Zelensky. The protests will only gain in volume and fervor the worse this gong show gets.
Wearing stilettos in a “war zone”.
Good grief. Now all of these crows are flocking to the movie set.
IWhere are some good “cameramen” when you need ’em?
Normies have about as much independent thought as cattle.
They will do whatever the media tell them. That is why they are normies.
Normie has figured out fake news, thank God. This would be the time for tptb to start coming clean, but they’ve dug themselves quite a hole. Normie will forgive much, but I’m not sure he’s got it in him for this mess, if he ever figures it out, too.
There is truth there but nukes and the internet kind of change the equation.
Look how fast the Ghost of Keev and Snake Island nonsense got debunked.
“Look how fast the Ghost of Keev and Snake Island nonsense got debunked.”
And the “mobile crematorium.”
The “mobile crematorium.”!!
How that hoary old chestnut lit me up.
That kind of remake just makes my day!
I can hardly wait for the opening of “Mariupol: The Walking Dead”.
Yes, the crematorium story kind of caught my attention. Mind you, I only know basic science. But I have a “general knowledge” idea of the amount of heat required to turn a human body to ash. And just plain economics: I suspect in a war zone there would be higher priorities for bottled gas.
What baffles me is how Russia was more or less being allowed to exert itself for 20 or so years before this. Does the change in posture indicate the neocons are now in total control of US foreign policy? Hard to believe they weren’t after 9/11, especially under Bush. Even Obama, who many say is Biden’s puppet master, resisted them. Hard to say what the hell is going on in DC.
“Does the change in posture indicate the neocons are now in total control of US foreign policy?”
Yes. The (((neocons))) have no interest in domestic policy. Never did. Their thing is Russia–specifically Czarist Russia, which is what the see now. They are deranged by hatred and resentment.
The neocons have always favored open borders and multiculti. Their domestic agenda is every bit as awful as their foreign policy prescriptions.
That their domestic agenda really is as awful their foreign policy prescriptions is an achievement unto itself.
Saw a really interesting article on the neocons with deep analysis of their motivations and goals. Paleocon stuff but even before Buchanan. Been out a while and made a huge stir in europe on publication; the ADL and big tech have been working really hard to surpress and it seems to have been forgotten now. State of Israel even used political influence with european powers to get some readers arrested and the publishers murdered. It’s still legal to disseminate in most western countries but barely so check it out while you can. Author just uses name “John” check the eighth… Read more »
Maybe, but Muslim terrorists were a real thing, especially post-9/11. The government could actually do something.
Our initial response was 90% correct (blow stuff up and kill people). Normal people were all on board with that.
But like all things in the GAE, we can never say “stop”. DHS, shoes-off/ granny groping security theater, mass middle eastern “refugees”, “democracy” in the middle east, Iraq War II.
911 was a Nose job.
Russia was allowed to exert itself only within its own borders, and even then, was forced to deal with GAE cultural infiltration, propaganda and subversion. In point of fact, post-Cold War Russia has been, until now, fairly docile. It is the GAE that has been aggressive and minatory.
The Georgian war got hairy for a little bit but then GAE backed off.
EMJ mentioned the Pale of Settlement the other day. Would it surprise me? Nope.
What makes it a vicious battle is that the eastern oblasts, Donesk and Lugansk, were the actual Pale.
“What baffles me is how Russia was more or less being allowed to exert itself for 20 or so years before this.” The neocons had Afghanistan for a playground back in 2014. The tiny-hat faction has long been obsessed with taking the Ukraine and/or destroying Russia in retaliation for kicking out the Bolsheviks, but so long as the neocons had a Forever War to sell their MIC-merch in, they didn’t want to kick the bear. That prevented the GAE from being united against Russia. But now that the Forever Wars are gone, the neocons have two choices: back the tiny-hats… Read more »
Assert not exert. Brain isn’t working right lately…
“Assert not exert. Brain isn’t working right lately…”
Keep it up, and you, too, will be president!
Lol I hope not. These days, I just want to finish planting trees for future generations to build cool stuff with, go backpacking, and get some sleep!
Zman – Excellent Taki post. I love how you’ve stopped pulling your punches there.
To which punches are you referring to, 3g? I have never known our esteemed blog host to pull a punch. I have seen him deliver any number right at the belt line… but never below it. I am not sure I agree with his assessment. Torba over at Blab is doing well for himself with his free speech platform and he is a pissant compared to Elon. No, our ruling class will not willingly give up their power… but their hold is starting to slip. Trump got away from them, as has Elon and DeSantis. The coalition of the Left… Read more »
You underestimate the enemy, and the control it has on the numerous levers of power. They will destroy Musk.
I don’t think cracking down on Musk and twitter is going to “wake up the normies” anymore than stealing an election
Zman was wrong that the 2020 election was going to cause people to abandon it the electoral system.
The conservative normies are too excited already about the midterms and Orange man’s comeback tour.
By wrong you me 100% correct. Two years on lots of people still point to the corruption of that election.
nobody for president in 2024
Who’s going to get a handle on immigration? nobody
Who’s going to stop spending money like a jogger on Friday? Nobody
Who’s going to restore American manufacturing? Nobody.
Who’s going to get the major cities in America livable again ?Nobody
Nobodyforpresident2024.com
I’d say that the American long-term plan is pretty clear. The American seem to believe that this will be the outcome, an outcome that is great for GAE: 1. Russia takes the eastern Ukraine and struggles to hold it, draining troops 2. Ukraine refuses to be neutral. Russia attempts to install puppet regime, but the Ukrainians rebel, requiring endless Russian incursions, which are met by either actually fighting or insurgencies, draining huge resources. 3. Europe grows politically closer to the US out of fear of Russia, rearming itself using US weapons, making a ton of money for the military industrial… Read more »
“Now, is this really the future? No, but it’s what they believe, and that’s what matters.”
Bingo!
That is a nice list of neo-con wishful thinking. I doubt any of them come true except maybe #3.
Of course the more likely scenario (which Z touches upon) is: 1) Russia grabs all the buffer territory it feels it needs, including any Uke access to the Black Sea 2) It peels Poland away by recognizing Polish sovereignty over the territory in Ukraine occupied by Poles 3) It peels Hungary away with a similar deal 4) No more fuel via the pipeline that gets robbed by the Ukes 4) Russia then tells the west to do whatever it wants to with the now incredibly poor and backward land-locked rump state that is left. The west will still think a… Read more »
“1) Russia grabs all the buffer territory it feels it needs, including any Uke access to the Black Sea”
And let’s remember that Russia has demanded that NATO membership be reduced from its present levels to pre-1991 levels. I think they *mean* that and they will eventually take the action they deem necessary to make that happen.
American oil production is nearly stagnant after accounting for DUC’s (drilled but uncompleted) wells being finished, so peak oil is coming back soon until the price spikes up to $300/barrel etc, an economy annihilator.
It’s going to be interesting how the sand people living in Europe deal with extremely cold winters. I doubt they’ll want to throw their lives away somewhere in Russia. Unrest is coming.
In my darker moments I think it really will take the massive defeat of actual American troops in open battle to end it. For structural reasons if no other — how could anyone ever trust anything coming out of the Swamp? American credibility got holed below the waterline 30 years ago; the Big Steal et seq. sent it to the bottom of the Marianas Trench. If I’m Vladimir Putin, there are only two conditions under which I’m sitting down at the peace table with “NATO” — either they beg me to, after a massive Sedan-style defeat; or their proposed draft… Read more »
You know who else wanted to shed the blood of a shitload of Kagans? 😉
Yes it is madness. The Canadian army just discharged 1,000 soldiers for refusing to take a COVID vaccine, while simultaneously ramping up war against one of the only 2 major nuclear powers. Why have Western governments shut down oil & resource production for nonsense eco reasons while now demanding to divest of Russian resources, resulting in them paying Russia billions while also at war? None of it makes sense. Our rulers might actually just be really stupid. One good thing is that the appetite for war seems to be low. Most people don’t really care. Lots of true believers but… Read more »
People here in my corner of clown world seem to be of two minds about the Ukraine business; 1) sympathy for the plucky Ukrainians because that’s what the TV says, combined with post Cold War residual antipathy towards the Russians and 2) absolutely no desire to send American troops anywhere near this mess. Guys like Adam Kinzinger sound, to even the biggest normie, completely insane.
Of course, if I point out that yeah the Russians kinda have a point here regarding spheres of influence, NATO expansion…its off to the ReEducation Camp #5 for ole manc.
See ya’ there manc.
I’ll send you a care package of cheese, sausage, crackers, nuts, pickles and Fruit of the Loom.
>” Our rulers might actually just be really stupid.”
This probably explains a lot more than anyone gives it credit for. Never, ever underestimate the power of simple stupidity.
My guess is that AINO’s Congress is a full standard deviation dumber than Congress 60 years ago. And stupidity has consequences. Big, big consequences.
“None of it makes sense.”
It makes perfect sense to deranged minds.
There’s an old German saying: Wir sehen gern was wir sehen wollen. “We see whatever we prefer to see.”
And what does not make sense to sound minds makes perfect sense to deranged minds b/c that’s what they prefer to see.
They are prisoners of their own ancient hatreds and resentments.
Don’t leave out obesity as a reason for poor quality of potential draftees, male or female, if it comes to that.
B125. Canada has a military? Could have fooled me. I suspect you’re correct. Mobilizing would be fruitless, you’ve become a vassal of the USA by depending upon them for security.
Here is USA, in better times (~ 10 years ago), roughly 70% of the prime age the military seeks (ages 18-25 approx.) are unfit to serve. The breakdown is roughly 50% unhealthy, usually overweight, 20% too stupid, and 10% criminal, which may mean either convicted or just drug use, I’m not sure. The intelligence (ASVAB was the term when I joined 40 years ago) requirement has been long standing, many decades, and the minimum roughly equates to an IQ of 85 or what in the old days was an 8th grade education. Roughly 15% of whites are too dumb, 30%… Read more »
Vlad has to die. Consider: he has tangled with the more corrupt end of the Russian managerial elite and removed any threats there. He has his thumb on the Russian mob who are essentially just another enforcement arm of his administration. He knows how to handle crazy wahmen, Jews, and other irritating minorities. Hillary or one of the other Globohomo players would have Epsteined him were it not for the fact that they probably wouldn’t outlive him for 5 minutes if they did so. Selling a war to the neocons here at home is a piece of cake. The Lefties… Read more »
I once attended a lecture given by the Original Kagan, Donald, the great historian of the Peloponnesian War. He seemed to get that it was Athenian hubris driving events at every turn. Too bad he couldn’t pass any of that understanding to even his immediate sprogs, much less their legions of in-laws and hangers-on and butt boys and fart catchers. One suspects that this was because Donald was the only one with a shred of actual life experience — he saw angry negroes with guns overrun the administration offices at Cornell. The rest of that tribe have been eggheads from… Read more »
Arrogance and stupidity, I see it a lot even in my own relatives, they take up a position and refuse to budge from it even when confronted with logical arguments, they cannot ever admit they were wrong. It’s like I’m a Vulcan trying to deal with Klingons–sigh, where’s my neutral zone.
I’ve mentioned pretty lukewarm takes to at least one normie and watched them put their hands over their ears and go, “Luh-luh-luh-luh-luh….” until they saw my mouth stop moving.
This was a grown adult, with a house and kids.
“This was a grown adult, with a house and kids.”
Well . . . I’ll agree that there’s a house and kids.
you’re lucky he didn’t charge you…
I recommend his 2003 book The Peloponnesian War as a great primer on the topic. It is a balanced presentation. Too bad none of his followers bothered reading it.
There was a class he (iirc) taught on Ancient Greek history on iTunes U a number of years ago. It was very good until the end when he got proud about Greeks dying for a lost cause. His neocon was showing.
Investment possibility. First, the disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor, do your own due diligence. Nor am I an ace investor*. Last night, browsing the news, something occurred to me. Western Europe is heavily dependent upon Russia for gas and oil. Obviously, they are making noises about weaning themselves off that, but that is easier said than done. I see that Russia supplies about 40% of EU’s gas. I asked myself, “What happens if that is embargoed? What are the non-Russia sources of the EU’s gas?” Some easy googling found the answer: the 2nd largest supplier is Norway. Some… Read more »
The problem with “investing” today is that it is really just gambling. As the later half of the Boomers are heading into retirement, who are they going to sell all their holdings and real estate to if the economy doesn’t enter a severe recession, which it appears it is doing?
The Dow bottomed out around 6k IIRC, in early 09. It’s been a zombie economy ever since and the Dow is sitting at 33k right now. For me, it’s hard to see a future so bright we should have all record highs.
Armstrong (i.e., Socrates) says Dow 40,000.
Frightened money from around the world correctly sees the US dollar as the safe haven. The dollar will get much stronger before the end. There’s no alternative to it at present.
The Atlantic and the Pacific still perform their old function of preventing conquest of AINO. The Mexican border is open for a different reason, although we ought o assume inactive foreign assets throughout “our” territory.
An all-out nuclear war would render everything irrelevant. So for the present, the US dollar is the world’s safe haven.
Counterintuitive, but there it is.
Milkshake theory.
Btw, check out Japan for possible hint of what global sovereign debt crisis may look like in the first inning or so
how much natural gas is norway already sending to EU?
I did not check actual figures, but Norway supplied about 20% of EU gs needs; I assume the figures are pre-invasion. My reasoning is usually quite superficial, I will admit. I really don’t need to know absolute figures. I assume that in normal times, Norway sells a more or less constant amount to EU (seasonal variations, probably). My assumption remains that, if Russia is eliminated as a source, that it is very unlikely that Norway, Algeria and Netherlands could quickly make up for the lost 40%. Scaled proportionally, Norway would suddenly have to nearly double the amount supplied, which seems… Read more »
Ben: Don’t beat yourself up about it – as Tars says, it’s all gambling. None of us can predict what will happen, so it’s ‘best guessing’ combined with how much risk one is willing to tolerate. My husband is constantly lamenting if he had done ‘x’ we’d have sufficient money to do ‘y’. But he made the best decisions he could with the information he had at the time.
When your investment goes up, you wish you’d bot more. When it goes south, you wish you’d sold more (or bot less).
Or bought a bottle 😀
Another thought I had is that the US is living in a pressure vessel and the crazy cabal trying to run the country are sane enough to know this; thus some sort of outside struggle or pressure is necessary to not let the US explode like a shaken, cheap soda in a can.
The future will be regional as even Leviathan is not strong enough to keep its tentacles around such an expansive, diverse country, populated by huge swaths of armed men in frontier like regions.
Until Ukraine and Russia review 7th grade biology and figure out how to make babies again I’m real curious to know how long they’ll both be wiling to sustain a loss of population due to conflict.
But maybe death is the ultimate plan here.
Right? I think TFR is a major problem for all the European militaries, Japan, and South Korea. Supposedly Russia is being flooded with volunteer requests from Third World countries they have yet to humor. I get that many on the wrong end of Western policy want to take a shot back, but I can understand that the Russians don’t want to deal with training and integrating a bunch of amateurs, regardless of enthusiasm. Long-term, China has major fertility issues, but right now they have a huge surplus of males they could mobilize. That said, if the suspicions about the Shanghai… Read more »
” … if the suspicions about the Shanghai lockdowns are true … .”
Yep. That’s a major wild card.
And don’t forget the Grand Solar Minimum and the disastrously heavy rains in China and the Three Gorges Dam fiasco and the fact that China was already a net importer of food even before all of that.
*All* Grand Solar Minimums cause catastrophic crop failures. And increased volcanic activity.
And the current GSM is just getting started.
Once again, to the root of the problem. Why are sane white guys killing other sane white guys on behalf of a midget faggy Jew puppet whose strings are being pulled by a Nazi Jew oligarch and his crony Alzheimer’s patient in the White House aided by a bunch of butch women and cucks running Europe? IOW, the only people losing in this conflict are the innocent citizens of Ukraine and the neighborhood men who should be protecting them. And all of this is happening because of a small cabal of “leaders” who call the shots from secure locations far… Read more »
Sounds familiar.
“There are now hundreds of thousands of white guys slaughtering each other … .”
Whoa, Dobbin!
Don’t let the general–“floating anxiety” is it?–inside your head.
“A forgotten lesson of the Peloponnesian war is that Athens had many chances to make a deal with Sparta but could not stop provoking the Spartans.” Another forgotten lesson of the Peloponnesian War is that the stupid and arrogant Athenians needlessly sided with Corcyra, which in turn made them enemies of Sparta’s ally Corinth, eventually sucking them into direct conflict with Sparta. Our wise founders knew this. Washington wrote in 1796 that “Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists… betrays the former into a participation in… Read more »
It’s also unreal that the Ukrainian government appears to have de facto control over the US government and many European governments.
You mean the same people who control Ukraine also control the US and European Governments.
Now if only we could determine some common factor.
Even beyond that particular factor, this guy makes a pretty good argument Scary Poppins really is an agent of the Ukrainian government:
https://creativedestructionmedia.com/analysis/2022/04/30/is-nina-jankowicz-still-working-for-ukraine/
I suppose I am making the point they don’t really have a govt, as most of the west does not either in the sense most people think.
They are all just regional offices of some other org. Its just we can’t see the actual joins underneath.
So she works for this other thing, like the rest. It just looks like its Ukraine as that is where a lot of its focus is at present.
Thank you. Those quotes from Washington’s Farewell Address always struck me as particularly appropriate no matter what part of the continuum the nation found itself inhabiting, whether the small, still vulnerable new nation, or the overambitious, delusional would-be hegemon of today, but for contrary reasons, of course. No matter, cozying up to other stronger nations/empires, or expecting other weaker nations to cozy up to this nation now afflicted by its current hegemonic pretensions could leave one highly vulnerable to manipulation, and foreign entaglements were always a clear and present danger. There is an image from the I Ching couseling extreme… Read more »
The question of Putin’s health comes up often and may be going under the knife for some serious problem. How this plays out in Russias prosecution of the war I don’t know but it should give his enemies some pause.
Putin is the moderate in Russian government.
Martin Armstrong frequently reports that “the people behind Putin” (in the Russian gov’t) are *real* hard-liners and would make of the Ukraine an example to the world about what those who mess with Russia can expect if they were running the show.
I’ve read that rumor about Putin’s health only once, and that was some time ago, before the current action in the Ukraine.
No idea beyond that.
Supposedly the Russian hardliners behind Putin would have nuked Kiev a few weeks ago.
“Supposedly the Russian hardliners behind Putin would have nuked Kiev a few weeks ago.”
Yeah, that’s what Armstrong has reported, so that’s reliable.
*ahem*
Umm…why stop at Keev?
Turns out the fellow white hyperventilating about Muskovite Cossacks on CNN over the weekend is…
another Lagos-based Zman?
https://danrodricks.com/2021/08/24/retirement-for-the-unretiring-z-man/
I have lived here for 20 years and never heard of the guy.
that’s what Tyler Durden said!
“The Z leaves behind a mountain of trenchant criticism written on deadline.”
[Channeling Foghorn Leghorn] ” A mountain, boy, I say mountain!”
More like a pile of shit, apparently
He’s probably never heard of you, either.
But there shall be only one Z Man. Grab your sword, highlander!
I really, really don’t want to sey the obvious, but…
You know who else is getting called “the Z-man”… what with all the bluescreen theatre, he could be filming in the war-torn downtown Block of Baltimore, and trying to steal some of the real Zman’s glamour…
” … but war makes people crazy.” Yes, and crazy people make war, and that is what we are watching: crazy people making war. Necessarily, then, their actions will be–must be–crazy. Several things are happening at once. First and foremost (imho), the ancient–and more recent–hatreds of the (((neocons))) have literally maddened them. They have literally lost their reason and their already tenuous hold on reality, in the same way as (we are told) Hitler and Co., lost contact with reality and succumbed to something of a literal “bunker mentality.” All judgments and all actions will necessarily be bad. Their ancient… Read more »
well they are creating the conditions for their expulsion, here. more than they realize.
they are getting their very own Masada…
It seems the assumption being made by our vaunted leadership is the Russian military is not up to the job and will soon withdraw with tail between legs. My assumption would be, if the Russians realize there is no deal to be made with the US – because let’s be clear, this entire mess can be laid at Washington’s feet – then scorched earth becomes a much more real possibility. Funneling billions in arms and aid to Russia’s opponent is an act of war and at some point may very well be treated as such. It’d be nice if this… Read more »
Welp, people been praying that God strike Washington with a thunderbolt…maybe God is listening after all.
Russia will win. They have, among other resources, oil, gas, gold, platinum, grain and the means to produce it. They are cutting deals with the Chinese and Indians, among other smaller players. We have “dollars”, an increasingly incompetent military and the support of a continent with a demographic suicide pact. If the Hague was anything but a joke, the US would be charged for every single Ukrainian civilian killed because of our intelligence support and weapons shipments. Rinse, repeat over Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, et.al. Imagine the irony if, after this is over, some Azov holdover sneaks a misplaced nuke into… Read more »
I think the performance of the Russians has shocked Pentagon planners. Maybe that is why we keep hearing these stories about the incompetency of the Russian army. It is a form of coping. It could also be the result of pre-planted stories based on the assumption that Ukraine armed with Western tech would land huge blows to the Russian army. Sober minded people in the West are sounding the alarm with regards to military technology. The Javelin has proven to be ineffective against Russian counter measures. The suicide drones have been useless, according to the Pentagon. Artillery is proving to… Read more »
The combination of cheap drones for spotting targets with area effect weapons like MLRS and basic artillery is rapidly making the battlefield look like the trench lines of WWI.
If the Russians splashed a few US recon satellites, the intel advantage of The US feeding movement and target lists to Ukraine would be curtailed quickly.
Escalation? Sure. But the Speaker of the House just visited the war zone. The US is in it up to their necks.
Washington (and maybe NATO) has these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3RIHnK0_NE
and that’s two years old.
But maybe the Russians have them, too.
How would taking out a satellite admittedly providing military intelligence to your enemy be escalation? Sounds like the escalation already occurred.
I saw a post (ZeroHedge ?) recounting that the Pentagon was contracting satellite data collection to private companies in Ukraine. This reminds me of how the Deep State has been using private companies such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter (perhaps no longer) to act as Their way to control internet discourse with some degree of “plausible deniability”. Well, that was historically the way maritime privateering (state-authorized piracy) worked, at least until the state whose assets were being pillaged deployed their naval forces to sink said privateers. The Russians are reputed to be well along in the development/testing cycle of the… Read more »
Amazing. A comment to c matt that contains no links, and no trigger words that I can see is sent to moderation.
for all the weapons supposedly being shipped into ukraine, they aren’t showing up on the battlefield. mush head joe is pumping blood into a corpse full of holes…
Being a cynic, I would speculate that most “aid” materiel ends up re-sold to the highest bidder who has hard currency in hand, whom I assume is not in Ukraine right now. Since Europe (beyond Ukraine) hasn’t (yet?) fallen into constant anarchy, I’d hazard that some of the hardware allegedly going to Ukraine will end up in the Mideast, perhaps Africa.
The Russians are hitting airfields and trainyards where the stuff is arriving. That’s okay for Raytheon’s bottom line, we just order more.
That could provide a double benefit to the gangsters running this show: chaos in MENA and repricing the MU negotiations (Mediterranean Union), and escalating the Jihad in Europe.
Some think the real target of the US is domination of Europe. And now, soon, we’ll have some version of the scripted “White Muslims”, even if they’re Nazis.
The US response seems a combination of bafflement, projection, denial and fear — poorly concealed behind a cheesy propaganda campaign aimed at reinforcing the dying boomer truth regime.
China won the first Cold War and is going into the second in a far stronger position.
On the bright side, for the GAE this war has Suez Moment written all over it.
I’m glad someone else mentioned Suez. That’s the event that keeps on bobbing around in my head: this is America’s Suez 1956 moment. Like we Brits back then, we hadn’t accepted the new reality that we were no longer top dog. We got a brutal awakening, and so will the Yanks.
It’s interesting that the public perception of Russian military incompetence is the one thing that everyone in the West seems to agree upon. Even a lot of people who are sympathetic to the Russians just assume that their military has performed atrociously and would get obliterated by the American military. I would think that at least some people actually in the US military would think differently, but the public perception (and quite possibly the politicians’ perception) is that the only reason to avoid war with Russia is that they have nukes; otherwise, we’d wipe the floor with them and any… Read more »
“Even a lot of people who are sympathetic to the Russians just assume that their military has performed atrociously and would get obliterated by the American military.”
I’m not seeing that in the sites I read. AFAIK, that’s MSM propaganda.
ask the Wehrmacht how incompetent the Russian military is.
In many ways Russia has completely flipped the script. I think some of this was predicted by the excellent performance of the Russian Expeditionary Force that intervened in Syria. They are successfully attacking with one-half to one-third of their opponent’s numbers. Historically, this type of action isn’t done without a two or three to one numeric advantage over the defender. Even more startlingly, they are doing it with mostly B and C-grade units. I assume this is because Putin and his planners are correctly husbanding their best forces for the inevitable US response. Regarding the suicide drones, I looked at… Read more »
Years ago I did a post about how Russia and China were studying the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. European observers were in America to watch the Civil War. This is just the natural evolution of war. It looks like the Russians put the lessons to good use. What I find amazing is that NATO did not notice what the Russians were doing.
For the Z cup
Morality trumps Facts
Could also put on another Zman favorite – This will not end well
Starts the
conversation
Dagnab, Phil- that’s a perfect dart. Applause!
There is another option to those you laid out: the United States and its European vassals want an indefinite civil war constantly attacking Russia. They have said as much, with Uncle Loyd saying he wants to weaken Russia. The greater likelihood, of course, is the United States becomes weaker and the Europeans become far more wary of their alliance with the Empire. At a minimum, Germany will ignore the sanctions when it gets cold this autumn. This is rank stupidity and insanity, and the Neocons want to take everyone out with them. My main concern is their means to do… Read more »
The nihilism of the left and the aggressiveness of the neocon faction makes that a possibility. These people make my blood run cold. They need to be driven from public life.
Jack Dobson: An alternative view – my husband has noted he is not exceptionally concerned with the conflict turning nuclear. What he does expect and fear, however, is the essential imposition of martial law domestically (by whatever name the current regime chooses to call it) backed by claims it is a national necessity due to shortages and foreign propaganda caused by Putinhitler. Depending on one’s view, the recent creation of the Ministry of Truth lends credence to this concern. The social controls have gradually been ratcheting up. When/if we see actual rationing of essential goods (food or electronics or metals)… Read more »
they probably will try for martial law, but will not be able to enforce it. who is going to provide the on-the-ground enforcement? at the same time as a full on war in EU? with china grinning like a big ole cat, across the pacific? and what effect will it have on the economy? and when red states openly defy the edict and start arresting federal employees?
these maniacs are hell bent on destroying themselves and they will succeed. and then we will be free again. i recognize death throes when i see them…
I suspect the plan is never to actually engage with Russia or China, just be perpetually “at war” with them like in 1984. The military is kept at home to control the population, periodically frogmarching them out to vote in fake elections.
“What he does expect and fear, however, is the essential imposition of martial law domestically … .” I think all of us have thought about this. And, owing to the numerous times you have told me that your husband says the same things I say, I’d be grateful of you would tell he more about what he thinks on this score (martial law). Because I just do not see how martial law could be enforced. Who would do it? How? Relying on what manpower and from where? UN troops? I just don’t see how martial law could be enforced. As… Read more »
Infant: When we’ve discussed the issue in the past, he’s raised all the same questions and objections your comment does. I’ve made countering arguments, some of which he’s accepted and some not. I don’t want to speak for him as to what his precise viewpoint is today – I’ll see if I can get a brief summary from him tonight after he returns from work (along with his permission that I quote him here).
@ 3g4me:
Understood. Thanks!
Infant: If you see this – Husband says his mind really began to change during Covid, and seeing how easily government, media, businesses, and Karens worked together to get almost everyone to comply. He said he believes any imposition of control will be targeted rather than nationwide – could easily be big dem cities first. People are already screeching about the out of control crime in Chicago, for example – very simple matter to appoint a single authoritarian city overseer – who would be welcomed and celebrated for bringing ‘order.’ Husband also said he could see them targeting certain counties… Read more »
I can see the regime inviting the PLA in under the guise of UN troops.
Heck, the regime is so far gone I can see them straight up inviting the PLA in to harmonize the US and help, “….control our souls’ desire for freedom.”
I hope you are right, 3g, but these people are insane enough to think they will not be harmed by nuclear war. The Ruling Class has not had skin in the game since ’45, and very little then, and a nuclear war would cause them to suffer, maybe even more than the Dirt people they use as cannon fodder. I still give the edge to madness as I watch the same feminized men who hid in horror from Covid now thumping their chests and begging Putin to bring it..
Jack Dobson: I don’t dismiss your concerns, sir – I respect your views too much. Perhaps it’s more a case of resignation? Hard to say; my husband is fully onboard with preparing for various possible crises but when it comes to nuclear war he feels any individual effort is futile and such a conflict is not one he would want to survive. I tend to agree.
I agree with you and your husband: why live in the aftermath of nuclear war? We are ruled by people who don’t think in those terms, unfortunately. Maybe Putin should nuke New Zealand first? Kidding there, sort of, but it is how these people think. After all, they are planning to bolt there when the racial wars they have instigated kick off, so why not after the birds fly?
The thing is, pschopaths, literally, cannot envision losing. Ever.
Thus, it’s not in their calculations. Not even considered.
Back in the Reagan years, was to my knowledge, the last time that anybody in government seriously (?) proposed Civil Defense. I believe the joke then was that all you needed to do was dig a trench in your backyard and place a door atop it. 🙂
I’m no expert in that unhappy discipline, but I have always sided with those who say that after any major nuclear exchange, the living would envy the dead. I HAVE seen enough credible analysis that I’m convinced there is more than a grain of wisdom in that pessimistic view. 🙁
It seems like the whole thing in the Ukraine is going to weaken both the west and the Russians, maybe the entire world? This war is not doing great things for China’s export economy either. I don’t know what the final outcome will be for sure in Russia because I don’t live there? I can only speculate but all of us can see the outcome here, spiraling food and energy costs, and the longer this goes on the chances are we probably won’t go back to a cheap food or energy world. The outcome here where I live is already… Read more »
The big edge for the Russians is they can supply their own food and fuel. They also have access to trade with China, where most Western goods are produced. Russia is far less dependent on the global supply chain than Western Europe. For reasons that remain unknown, the West did not grasp this fact when they implemented sanctions.
The real question is will European people tolerate food and fuel rationing. The Russians are used to sacrifice, so one should assume they can take the pinch, at least for a while.
“For reasons that remain unknown, the West did not grasp this fact when they implemented sanctions.” My guess is that they are going hell-for-leather in their lunatic schemes to save he world from climate change and from racism and all the sins catalogued in the catechism of our bizarre civic religion. They see this as their best and probably only chance to put Communism into effect, since their believe that it has failed in the past b/c “it has never really been tried.” These are evil people. Deranged. They are evil and deranged. Literally possessed by mad ideas and beliefs.… Read more »
Yes and the only cure is “the old yeller” fix.
Yep. I see that Z-man quote as an implicit assumption of rationale thought on the part of TPTB who run the West (for the most part). I no longer make that assumption, so I no longer wonder about such things. We are still learning this lesson in real time with the Covid shutdown fiasco—and it ain’t over yet.
I suspect the plan was to instigate the war, which they did, and then implement desired policies such as food and energy rationing. This is the play they ran with Covid. The problem is, as you wrote, two-fold: Europe will break ranks when it gets cold again, and Russia appears to be holding up quite well while the West suffers.
“I suspect the plan was to instigate the war, which they did, and then implement desired policies such as food and energy rationing.”
Agreed.
Lunatics.
Rationing is already in place, just not obvious as it was with coupon books in WWII. Rationing is done with $$$ and charging on a sliding scale. Here, in my town, all utility prices are on an escalating price scale with increased usage. For example, water. You get the first 7 units or so at a $1.50 or something, then the next 5 units, $5.00 or something, then the next half a dozen units at $12.00 per unit and so forth. I’m using water in the summer costing $15 per unit! A unit is 750 gallons. Already, there are folks… Read more »
Point taken
The Russian people have a long history of dealing with severe suffering which we have only come close to and it was a long time ago, over 150 years ago in the American Civil War.
I have been reading lately about the Weather Underground, the modern neocons are showing all the signs of going down a similar radical destructive path as that group of usual suspects from our past.
Speaking of the Weather Underground. Let’s all take a moment to be thankful that that terrorist Kathy Boudin has assumed room temperature.
Hope your son joins you soon Kathy!
The Ministry of Propaganda is, apparently, already attempting to prepare the Proles for a “war economy”. This is from Financial Times, which some wag has called “People Magazine for the Davos crowd.” Perhaps, but it’s a flagship publication for the clouds, in any event.
https://www.ft.com/content/d8e565b0-c769-46cc-9be3-4ed9a806d8e8
What a load of horseshit! He even blames Russia for the current inflation in the West!
In other news, pity them! New Zealand has had adverse weather that will lead to a disappointing vintage this season 😀
“New Zealand has had adverse weather that will lead to a disappointing vintage this season”
It’s the Grand Solar Minimum
The people running the West don’t understand supply chains because none of them have ever held a manufacturing position or run a manufacturing business.
They also seem to believe their people are behind them and ready to sacrifice to teach Russia a lesson.
Heck, some minister in Denmark or Holland just said that the people have had it too good, and that energy has been too cheap for the past 40 years.
Inbetween Europe, India, and China? The largest consumer base on planet Earth, and they gots the goods.
Everything we have depends on shipping and a Chinese owned Panama Canal in an isthmus bottleneck.
That whole “protected by two oceans” thingie might matter in a different way, soon. We’ll have to invade Canada for raw material and Mexico for food. Our version of Ruhr iron mines and Sudenten-Czech farmland.
“For reasons that remain unknown, the West did not grasp this fact when they implemented sanctions.” There was no reason. Rather, the entire thing was the byproduct of a highly feminized society run by women who mistake the luxuries men gave them for how the real world beneath them works. This was seen most prominently when European foreign ministers, disproportionately female, literally got up and walked out on the Russian foreign minister. That’s the kind of theatrics you’d see in any American high school where the head cheerleader and her entourage socially ostracize the unpopular ugly girl. These hens running… Read more »
“This war is not doing great things for China’s export economy either.” China has–good Lord, I don’t even know how to put it–they have literally locked millions of people inside their homes without reliable supplies–from the gov’t–of food and water because of their “zero tolerance” Covid policy. The Chinese gov’t literally has a zero “tolerance” policy directed at a (man-made) pathogen! This is being carried out, though, as zero tolerance for sick people who are–technically at least–under the protection of the government that is literally sealing them in their homes. People are jumping from high-rises. The rich fled at the… Read more »
I think theZman touches on it in the Takimag article: modern computers and databases have given elites the idea they can be in total control.
They may prove to be right. I hope not.
“Total control?” Anybody who’s ever worked in IT, especially with huge legacy systems in bureaucracies, government or corporate, would be laughing until he soils himself 🙂 Of course that doesn’t mean that computers on scale small or huge can’t or don’t do useful work (for good or ill). What it DOES mean is that as an organization gets larger, especially a government one, it “selects” for cronyism, inaction, niche-protecting, general incompetence. In blunt terms, you can have the finest instruments and teams of minions awaiting your orders, but if those in command are fucking idiots, all the tools in the… Read more »
Anyone that disagrees with Ben should check out the nearest Oracle or SAP custom enterprise-wide software, “solution.”
The Oracle, “solution,” at my firm is so inscrutable I’ve been avoiding it for the past five years.
Yet there Oracle is, a multi-billion dollar international company with ever expanding tentacles…
” … but if those in command are fucking idiots … .” Hard to see how they could be classified as anything else except deranged minds. It seems self-evident to us here that you can’t erect or maintain a total-surveillance state without an *absolutely* reliable and *unfailing* supply of electricity. But we see them dismantling power generation everywhere and in all forms. Deranged. Thinking of “them” recalls to mind some lines from the poem “Ethnogenesis” by Henry Timrod, Poet Laureate of the Confederate States of America: “And what if, mad with wrongs themselves have wrought, In their own treachery caught,… Read more »
Infant: The Chinese domestic restrictions truly baffle me. Presumably they know who developed Covid and how. Presumably they know just how dangerous it is or isn’t to the average individual. So what is the justification for the lockdown of millions? Some suggest to effect the de-facto reduction of production and exports, thus hurting the US – but of course this hurts their own people as well. I cannot figure out their motivation, without also assuming they genuinely believe the big bad pandemic will decimate their population.
3g4me-
I think China’s lockdowns are Xi trying to crush rivals combined with trying to keep a lid on their debt, energy, food, real estate, and water issues prior to being anointed emperor later this year.
If all China was trying to do was wreck Western supply chains they would only need to slow their factories and ports, maybe have a few mysteriously burn down.
What they are doing goes way beyond that.
“The Chinese domestic restrictions truly baffle me.”
Roger that, 3g! “Baffling” is the word for it all right.
Maybe they find themselves unable to feed their population and prefer to get rid of a number of them to preserve their own hold on power there.
These are the same people who perpetrated the Cultural Revolution back in the 60s, so discarding millions of their people is something they have done before and survived.
Yeah, baffling.
israel going all in on the vaxx likewise baffles me.
It is a way for China to continue to feign good trade relations with the West yet still have an excuse for cutting it off from key products. About a half a year ago or so Soros and the WEF had what appeared to be a falling out with China. My guess is they wanted to manage what the PRC is doing but were told LOLGF.
Over a decade of near zero interest rates and QE punctuated by 2020 helicopter money and lockdowns were already producing high inflation before the war even started. All of the “inflation is temporary” of 2021 has been memory holed and now it’s “Putin’s Price Hike”
All of the problems of the West are of her own making and with much deeper roots than 2 months ago.
There aren’t Poles in the Western Ukraine since the 1940’s, Stalin deported to Poland. The referendum they’re planning in the Kherson province is just a fig leaf to to disguise a naked landgrab, the winner is going to be the side who appoints the vote counters. If this war is a Syracuse Expedition, I fear that Russia is playing the role of Athens, with some luck they’ll annex South East Ukraine, but at the cost of exposing the Russian Army as a paper tiger, and transforming the remaining three fourths of Ukraine in to a vehemently Russophobic state, armed to… Read more »
These weird stories about the Russian army baffle me. Are you not familiar with maps? When I look at the maps, I see one side seizing huge swaths of territory, while the other side is being condensed into smaller areas.
As far as the number of Poles in the west of Ukraine, it is disputed so we have to be careful on the estimates. The Ukrainians have been persecuting the Polish minority since independence. Poland maybe planning to retake these areas, which had been art of Poland in the past.
All these intricate historical grudges that are just lying in wait to be addressed. Western leaders are completely ignorant or dismissive of them. What will be unleashed this time?
If Poland goes full retard and moves to retake certain areas of Ukraine, then Hungary will attempt to take over Zakarpattia. Who know what else will be triggered. Romania annexing Moldova sans Transnistria? None of this is good.
Pandora’s Box 2: Madness In Sane Only
Machiavelli says: russia cuts a deal with Poland to give them western ukraine (in exchange for poland not making more nato mischief) 🙂
Perhaps the conclusion of this war will lead to a fact few in America cannot fathom- the beginning of the end of America as a world power, and also of its own dissolution. Whatever our condition is right now, within the next 15 years I have no reason to believe that we will be better off, rather much worse. I’ve been aware of our decline since the early 1970’s, and there’s no reason we’re going to change our direction. Just remember this: The Soviet Union went from a feared power to a collapsed empire becoming 15 nations within 17 weeks.… Read more »
this is my view, as well. we are far less united as a country, than Russia is. it is our economy that is fragile and splintering *now*. it is our country that is full of fifth columnist 3rd worlders. it is our country that has $20T of debt (more?). it is our military that is pozzed to the core. and finally, it is our country that is controlled by demonstrably incompetent and purblind people.
when this episode is over, the US will be much reduced, in reputation and in fact.
I think we will divide regionally based on divisions of culture and dialect. I’ve told people someday the Ohio River could well become a boundary between 2 nations. People used to say I was crazy but now they say nothing.
And just wait if Roe V Wade gets cancelled. The blue haired land whales are going to go apeshit.
They will go ape shit. They are already going apeshit, but the reality is that there will be no overall prohibition of abortion. Abortion on demand will only be the price of a bus ticket away.
I’m not a pro abortion advocate, but we all must live in realville. We are a debased an fallen society. In such, abortion is and will be a continuing reality.
Coalclinker: Being forced to be out and about this past Saturday (something I usually avoid at all costs) reinforced my feeling that the diminution or dissolution of the GAE is something devoutly to be wished. No, I don’t expect to be unaffected. Regardless, I am not prepared to offer any assistance to the great mass of non-White non-Americans in the DFW area, or the dwindling number of masked and/or vaxxed Whites here. I also reject the convoluted biblical interpretation I heard online this weekend (i.e. shortages mean anyone who has prepared will be doing God’s will by sharing with any… Read more »
parasites are always in favor of sharing.
“parasites are always in favor of sharing.” But if it ain’t voluntary, then it ain’t sharing. It’s theft. I had to “explain” this inconvenient truth to my daughter’s teacher and school principal when she was in the second grade. (She will be 40 in July.) There was quite a confrontation. I ended it by taking their purses, which they had left on the floor within my reach during our “conference.” I left the building with their purses in hand and threw them into the middle of the street in front of the school. They were running after me shouting, “You… Read more »
“Some would argue that God always allows for people to be saved from judgment. The biblical teaching on hell would indicate otherwise.”
Exactly. If God is holy, then He is perforce also *just.* And justice demands punishments.
Infant: Hope my use of quotation marks make it clear that I found that explication elsewhere online; while I agree with the conclusions, the work was not mine.
Yes. Rushdoony points out in a book of his that I am always recommending–The Politics of Guilt and Pity–that there are people who think that God will ultimately “love Satan into Heaven.” Such people have no sense of justice. Such people are swayed by stupid, empty slogans like “Love is never wrong” b/c they consider “love” the greatest thing; the be-all and end-all of everything. Therefore, contemporary Americans place no value on justice. So we have decaying cities where groups of shoplifters take calculators to stores that they are going to loot to avoid stealing too much (on that particular… Read more »
This has been known for ages. “Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent”, Adam Smith.
I agree that none of it much sense – unless you accept that the people in charge of the west are really really stupid ideologues.