War Lessons

Most likely, the first war in human history was one group of guys rushing at another group of guys, swinging fists and anything they could use as a club. It did not take long before a man decided that it was a good idea to use his hunting weapons to ward off these attacks or compliment these attacks. After all, if a gang of men with spears could take down a large animal, the same tactics would work on humans. From there the arms race was on among the human species.

The club was probably the first weapon of war. The spear would be the first tool converted for use in war. The shield was the first tool of war created specifically for use in combat against other men. Unlike the club, the shield was not just lying around waiting for a man to use it in a fight. Unlike the spear, the shield was not something used for hunting. The shield was a practical response to men using their spears to poke at you in a fight. It was the dawn of the arms industry.

We have no way of knowing if any of that is true. The first men were not big on writing stuff down so we are left to speculate. Maybe the crazies are right and people are naturally peaceful until a weapon is introduced. Some guy brought his spear to the clan meeting and this caused the clans to break out into warfare. Perhaps humans were vegetarians, eating what they could find until one guy picked up a stick and then immediately decided to start beating people with it.

Putting that aside, the history of war has been one side finding new ways to get around opposing defenses, while the other side finds new ways to block or reduce the weapons the other side is using. We are seeing this in Ukraine as the Russians work through the puzzle that is the Ukrainian defense network. For close to a decade the United States worked with Ukraine on their tactics, defenses and training. The Ukrainians were as ready as they could be for this war.

One of the first problems the Russians faced was the well designed Ukrainian air defense system. This was a carry over from the Soviet days. During the Cold War, the Russians planned to defend themselves against superior American airplanes, so they designed advanced air defense systems. These things are always hotly debated, but the consensus is that the Russians are the best in the world at building surface-to-air missile systems for defending against planes and missiles.

Of course, this was the same problem presented to NATO. The Russians have even better air defense systems than the Ukrainians. They can take out the best aircraft from great distances. This is why the Pentagon was adamantly against imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine. Losing billion dollar aircraft on a daily basis is a good way to lose popular support for a proxy war. It is also why there was never any thought about training Ukrainian pilots on the F-35.

That is the first lesson of this war. Outside of asymmetric wars, like America attacking a weak country, manned combat aircraft is becoming obsolete. Surface-to-air missile systems are reaching the stage where they can defeat the best manned aircraft at pennies on the dollar. If you can take out a billion dollar plane with a million dollar missile, it is not going to take long before the other side stops using their billion dollar planes to attack you.

That is another lesson of the war. Wars between peers are about economics, not flashy displays of technological prowess. Each side must try to reduce the per unit cost of destroying the opponents assets and defending its own assets. Assuming equal number of assets at the start, the game becomes a contest of efficiency. The side that can run the war most cost effectively wins. We are seeing that in Ukraine as the frugal Russians grind down the extravagantly financed Ukrainians.

That brings up another lesson of this war. The vaunted American military industrial complex is being revealed to be a bigger fraud than suspected. Last summer, Alex Vershinin pointed out the problems in the Western military industrial capacity versus that of the Russians. He concluded that the West simply lacked the industrial capacity to wage this war. In December Brian Berletic did a similar post on this topic, which had been covered in the Washington Post and Financial Times.

The United States has spent roughly a trillion dollars per year on weapons but there is not enough stock to last a year in a real war. Even if there is a shift toward ramping up production, it will take years to match the Russians and Chinese. In some cases, the ability to make the stuff has been lost. Once the contract with the military was fulfilled, the men and facilities to make the stuff was repurposed. For those cases it means starting production from scratch.

It actually is worse than anyone is letting on. The Pentagon refuses to consider supplying Ukraine with Abrams tanks. One reason is it takes a year to train a crew to competently operate the thing. The main reason, however, is these tanks are extremely fragile outside of optimum environments. Their size and complexity require a massive supply chain to keep the things running. That is great for the contractors, but it is an enormous liability for an army at war.

Probably the biggest lesson thus far is that drones are changing the battlefield in ways no one anticipated. Faced with massive defense works, the Russians were reduced to using their artillery advantage to pound the Ukrainians. Cheap drone technology has allowed them to efficiently target enemy positions and selectively hunt for opposing machines using inexpensive weapons. The cheap drone is not only a new weapon on the battlefield it is a force multiplier.

Of course, the biggest lesson is that fighting in your backyard is much easier than fighting across the sea. The Russians have short tight supply lines because Ukraine is right on her border. The Ukrainians, reliant on American money and material, have supply lines stretched thin. Those donated tanks and artillery pieces have to be shipped to Poland to be repaired. Another lesson of this war is that supply chain is as important as the weapons and ammunition it supplies.

Whether anyone in the West is learning anything from this is hard to know, but most likely the corruption is so thick that none of this is making sense to them. Making billion dollar jet fighters is much more fun and profitable than producing cheap drone technology or building better field artillery. If these lessons will be learned at all it will be in a colossal failure in the Pacific. That seems to be where the military industrial complex is determined to meet its fate.


If you like my work and wish to kick in a few bucks, you can buy me a beer. You can sign up for a SubscribeStar subscription and get some extra content. You can donate via PayPal. My crypto addresses are here for those who prefer that option. You can send gold bars to: Z Media LLC P.O. Box 432 Cockeysville, MD 21030-0432. Thank you for your support!


Promotions: We have a new addition to the list. Above Time Coffee Roasters are a small, dissident friendly company that makes coffee. They actually roast the beans themselves based on their own secret coffee magic. If you like coffee, buy it from these folks as they are great people who deserve your support.

Havamal Soap Works is the maker of natural, handmade soap and bath products. If you are looking to reduce the volume of man-made chemicals in your life, all-natural personal products are a good start. If you use this link you get 15% off of your purchase.

Minter & Richter Designs makes high-quality, hand-made by one guy in Boston, titanium wedding rings for men and women and they are now offering readers a fifteen percent discount on purchases if you use this link. If you are headed to Boston, they are also offering my readers 20% off their 5-star rated Airbnb.  Just email them directly to book at sales@minterandrichterdesigns.com.


233 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Publius
Publius
1 year ago

These are some of the same lessons that the Germans learned in WWII. This isn’t a new situation, it is merely the advance of drone technology that has demoted some tech, and returned us to fighting in the muck, as in WWI. I am glad I am not of draft age in a Western country at this point. The West has been committing collective suicide for a few decades now. The seeds were sown, and now the bitter harvest is here.

Joe go
Joe go
1 year ago

Does “hypersonic missiles ring a bell?

trackback
1 year ago

[…] January 11, 2023 […]

Brendan
Brendan
1 year ago

The lessons you describe were once required reading at MIT. Arthur C Clarke’a short story Superiority described this in an entertaining way. I’ve often thought about that story and our own military — and it looks like the old ways have been forgotten.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superiority_(short_story)

george 1
george 1
1 year ago

And all the MSM does is lie about the situation. I read a BBC article a few days ago: “Ukraine rushes reinforcements to Soledar.” Good thing they “rushed” them there just in time to be destroyed by the Wagner Group.

The real headline should be: ” The Wagner Group, a private military contracting organization, with the help of Russian artillery, cut NATO’s nuts off in Soledar and then handed them their heads”.

Mike
Mike
1 year ago

There may be some real fear among the brass and the MIC firms that up against Russia all that wonderful equipment might end up in flames on the battlefield or at the bottom of the sea. The stuff in the latest announcement is all pretty old techthat has been supposedly upgraded over the years. The Bradley has performed well against the goatherds but has never faced a peer. I suspect that in a scrap with Russian armor it may not have a long, happy life, light armor with light guns don’t help much. The TOW AT missiles they have, only… Read more »

Maus
Maus
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

All this is quite alarming because, if the conventional toys don’t work, the pressure to go nuclear might prove overwhelming to the idiots. “Haste makes waste” will take on a new, more ominous meaning.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Maus
1 year ago

Exactly. That is the fear.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

“There may be some real fear among the brass and the MIC firms that up against Russia all that wonderful equipment might end up in flames on the battlefield or at the bottom of the sea.”

I disagree. The goal is to have all of this destroyed. How else do you created a need to produce more?. The tens of billions of dollars of equipment left in Afghanistan was left deliberately.

The MIC concern is always : how to depict this loss as a result of not having enough.

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

The Abrams tank is perfect evidence about the aphorism that an elephant is a mouse designed by the Pentagon..It’s 60-70 tons of largely immoveable metal that is constantly breaking down…

Pozymandias
1 year ago

One of the real problem the US is having is that backing away from the MIC is increasingly difficult for ambitious young people due simply to the fact that we seem determined to turn our economy into what I think you would call a palace economy. Basically, without connections to the regime your little business is going to struggle and may be just squashed on a whim if it proves inconvenient. I think of all the little stores here in Oregon that are gone forever because our insane governor kept the mask rules in place for 18 months, longer than… Read more »

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Pozymandias
1 year ago

Good comment asking questions that need to be answered. Another thing that is bothering me more and more is just how do the people at the bottom of the MIC reconcile what they are doing with their beliefs about right and wrong. Or from a Christian perspective, are they committing a mortal sin by enabling Ukrainians killing Russians. That may seem harsh but how can anyone believe that they are doing the right thing by making HIMARS rockets when they are mostly being used to kill civilians in the Donbass? Are they making money at the cost of their souls?… Read more »

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

The folks at the bottom of the MIC mostly = Civnat G. Normiecon. I should know, I grew up surrounded by them.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

That’s what I meant, they are civnat normie all the way. In theory they ought to the best of heritage America but they aren’t aware enough to realize what they are doing as far as I can tell. The assembly line workers at the bottom of the pyramid should have enough self-awareness and conscience to see what they are enabling. But a paycheck can be used to buy steaks and beer. Can’t interfere with the grilling.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

There seems to be some confusion on who Civnat G. Normiecon is. C.G.N believes GAE war propaganda. If he didn’t believe it, he wouldn’t be CGN. In terms of the MIC version, when he’s not grilling and watching sportsball, he’s consuming Tom Clancy agitprop, which portrays what CGN believes, or wants to believe, about the MIC. Thus he is at peace with the part he plays in it. That stuff kind of is to literature as Garth Brooks is to music, but if you want not just big but huge sales you gotta appeal to the midwits. In this case,… Read more »

The real Bill
The real Bill
1 year ago

So it seems reasonable to assume that future warfare will include satellites. Leaving inside the question of satellite-based weapons aimed at the Earth, the fact that so much military technology depends on satellites for geolocation and communication, would seem to mandate that taking out your adversary’s satellites before they can take out yours, would be a logical move once hostilities have broken out. So it seems reasonable to conclude that Russian, Chinese, and American military planners are already thinking along these lines. And if they don’t have them in place already, surely they are developing weaponized satellites which are capable… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Not sure I’d argue of a superiority wrt nuclear weapons. Yeah, we’d “demonstrated” but not perfected the bomb. After the two we dropped on Japan we had only fissionable material for one more bomb and those things were pretty big as compared to today’s weapons. Starting a war in the first few years based upon a superiority in nukes would not seem a slam dunk. Four years after Nagasaki, the USSR demo’d its “Fat Man” and we were off to the races, so maybe we could have pulled it off with a four year head start. But I’d say we… Read more »

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

Stalin probably had a good idea how much fissionable material we had too. Very successful Soviet spy effort inside Manhattan Project. Moreover, in the 1940s delivery to target was questionable.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

Jeffrey,

I wondered about that; I recall there was a spy or spies there, but don’t remember the details. Were these Russian spies in a position to know that kind of information?

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Without a doubt. Not all of them were ever caught or brought to “justice” either. There was one who confessed in the mid 1990s, shortly before his death. Nothing was done to him. There’s some reading out there one can do on the subject. Certainly too much to put in a reply here.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Not only the atomic program. Reds were inside FDR’s White House, and not a few. He saw Joe Stalin and Co. as brothers by another mother.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Supposedly Rober Oppenheimer was a Russian spy. If true they had everything.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

I hear you, and don’t really disagree with anything you say. I agree that it’s a good thing that America didn’t take advantage of our position of predominance. Our decision not to do so reflected our ‘national character’, IMO: we were not a warlike people intent on dominating the world, and using the threat of violence to attain that end. I’m just saying we *could* have, if we had wanted to: that in the years before Russia got the bomb, we were the only nation who had it. And though as you point out, we only had enough material to… Read more »

Stan Kubrick
Stan Kubrick
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Don’t go breaking my heart, should the Low Earth Orbit satellite prison system go down. Complex and takes a long time to build but seems easy to lay these LEO’s satellites to waste using much with less effort and resources than similiar terrestrial comm infrastructure. “Kessler Effect: What Kessler predicted is that sooner or later, objects in low-earth orbit would start colliding, and produce chain effects, like billiard balls colliding on a crowded pool table. If a piece of debris hit a satellite, it would produce more debris, which would to increase the risk of other collisions … and so… Read more »

Whiskey
Whiskey
1 year ago

I for one am reassured that Zelensky appeared at the People’s Golden Global Choice Awards, introduced by Sean Penn as a “dreamer” and told the celebrities that World War III was in development, and not currently scheduled for release as a trilogy! That Ukraine is winning, and that they’d be in Crimea by Summer and Moscow by next winter, to remove and try Putin and break up Russia. That is the plan. And from their perspective, why not? They have the measure of Putin and he can’t/won’t fight back. Each red line is crossed with impunity: the Moscova sinking, Kerch… Read more »

george 1
george 1
Reply to  Whiskey
1 year ago

“Knockout raids deep into Russia to disable air defenses.” The fools think they can accomplish that as though Russia is Iraq.

Return of Return of
Return of Return of
1 year ago

How’s that “Winter Offensive” going?

Two more weeks, right?

The real Bill
The real Bill
1 year ago

The Soviet experience in Afghanistan provides an interesting example of how shifting technology can completely change the balance of power in a war; and can enable a group whose forces are inferiorly-equipped in every other way, to prevail against a much more powerful and better-equipped adversary. For much of their occupation of Afghanistan, the Soviets had control of the major cities, while the Afghan rebel forces controlled the countryside. The Soviets were able to keep those rural rebel forces under control by sending out huge missile-bearing Hind helicopters to seek them out and destroy them. Imagine: you’re an Afghani tribesman,… Read more »

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

The western/GAE way of war demands, is based on, air superiority/supremacy. The whole doctrine flows from that. Without that it is DOA. So far, space is an ancillary theater to air. You seek to control space so that you can control air. Maybe someday space weapons will take the place of air weapons, but we aren’t there yet. GAE doctrine doesn’t seek to outmuscle you on the ground, it seeks to neutralize you from the air so it’s ground forces can roll relatively unimpeded. Thus, building more tanks/artillery isn’t going to defeat GAE. They will just blow them away from… Read more »

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

Which is likely why the Russians are focusing on developing offensive missiles which can reliably overwhelm our current missile defenses. As a thought experiment, suppose they do that: suppose they develop offensive missiles which they are confident could reliably breach our defenses. At the same time, they are well aware that we are aware of what they’ve done; and that we are working as fast as we can to develop antimissile systems which are effective against their new class of missile. Wouldn’t the logical course of action be for them to take advantage of this temporary superiority on their part,… Read more »

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

It seems like the easy answer to the Next Big Thing that upsets, or reinforces, the military balance of power happens in space. But it’s hard for some pleb like me to say when. Maybe it has already happened and we just don’t know it yet. Maybe it is still years in the future. Hard to see that anyone has an insurmountable edge when it comes to using lots of cheap drones. That levels the field, but it doesn’t tilt it. Hypersonic missiles are expensive and I’m going to guess nobody produces large quantities quickly. Great stuff until you’ve shot… Read more »

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

Right. What it would seem reasonable to assume, is that the military planners of America and Russia and China— and maybe Iran and North Korea— having realized that the future balance of power will have to include space, *and may in fact be determined* by who prevails in space— are making plans along those lines. How far those plans have gotten— whether in the case of each nation they’re still in the theoretical planning stage, or whether they’re actually in the process of constructing such weaponized satellites, or whether they have one or more in orbit already— is impossible to… Read more »

Joe go
Joe go
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Does “hypersonic missiles ring a bell?

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

My whole life, I never seriously considered, never would have believed, that one day the GAE might expend itself on the same steppe that Napoleon and Hitler did. Yet here we are, having this conversation.

And somewhere in the globohomo hierarchy, you know it’s true, some well credentialed ‘expert’ is saying “by jove, we CAN beat the Russians in a land war. Our tanks can be in Moscow in six weeks!”

Spingerah
Spingerah
Reply to  Jeffrey Zoar
1 year ago

Since the first group of cavemen threw rocks and hit eachother with sticks.
The MIC was there supplying them with overpriced rocks & sticks.
It hasn’t and never will change.
I am with the MIC, wasn’t always used to do real work. Spent a good part of the last twenty in third world shitholes and war zones. The company is asking for volunteers for Poland. Most of us expect soon enough we will be voluntold as no hands are going up.
Not many true believers these days.
If our sons are ordered in; god help them. hands reluctantly will raise.

Lucius Sulla
Lucius Sulla
Reply to  Spingerah
1 year ago

I assume if it ever came to that, to conscript a fighting force to be slaughtered on the steppes, they’d apply “protected classes” to the draft just as they do in hiring these days.

Protected classes (non-whites, sexual perverts, trannies, women) would get to opt out. White men would be sent to the meat grinder, along with all the other European white men. Dusky “protected classes” in the US and the dark invaders of Europe would get to breed with the white women left behind. The great replacement is accelerated.

Dante
Dante
Reply to  Lucius Sulla
1 year ago

If (((they))) actually tried a draft things would get hot on the home front very quickly. This is why local organization is essential. We need to combat force with force, and our blood will purify us and assure our place next to Christ in eternity. The GAE is going to be the vehicle through which the antichrist will be crowned. This is a struggle that is beyond the world of man and it is our duty to fight and die for Christ, the ultimate Truth.

trackback
1 year ago

[…] War Lessons […]

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

There are other Russian military capabilities of note: 1) Some very high proficiencies in electronic countermeasures (ECM). These may have been contributory to their successes in neutralizing drone swarms attacking their air base in Syria. Other uses are, of course, to be expected. These systems may have been successfully deployed to interrupt satellite communications in Ukraine, for instance, disrupting command and control for the Ukrainian/NATO forces. 2) They have been building, and/or retrofitting small corvette size naval vessels to be armed with some very competent missile systems. These boats demonstrated some of these capabilities in support of misssions in Syria,… Read more »

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

Yeah, but where are they in the *really important* battle: the battle for diversity, equity, and inclusion?

How many ‘gays’ and ‘transgenders’ and angry women of color do they have in their ranks?
Who do they have, for example, to compare to our Admiral Rachel Levine? To our ‘SecDef of color’ Lloyd Austin?

Seriously, though: that does seem to be the case: that while we seem to be focusing on ‘woke’ measures which can only weaken our military, our Chinese and Russian foes are developing technologies which they intend to be superior to anything we can field against them.

c matt
c matt
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

My only hope is that DIE is some Sun-Tzuian feint.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  c matt
1 year ago

Sun Tzu would faint
if he were to meet
our current crop of military “leaders”

(I’m sorry, I just couldn’t help myself)

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

One other point. The Russians, alongside of their preservation, and where possible and necessary, of their industrial base (helped significantly by being largely an autarky in respect of natual resources), have also been very serious about their educational system. They don’t view it as disjunct from the elements of real national power, rather rhe opposite. While here the shitlibs are doing all that they can to destroy our educational system as, well, a system that educates the population across the board whike it also seeks out the best and brightest for cultivation to their highest capabilities, they are using it… Read more »

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

…necessary, and improvement of…

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

So true: what good are technologically-sophisticated weapons systems, without human actors intelligent enough to operate them?

Mow Noname
Mow Noname
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Drink Brawndo. It has electrolytes.

Pozymandias
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

This is the real reason the US can’t win against either Russia or China. Both are strong, coherent nations with no doubts about “who we are”. The US is barely a nation anymore and may fly apart from its own centrifugal forces without even any external pressure. Then add in the above mentioned habit of the ruling class to use the remaining national resources to attack the population itself while the US’s foes clearly use theirs the way any nation should – to bolster their economies and military. As just a single example, look at the way the US, which… Read more »

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

Russia has learned a lot both from their own wars and those of the US.
The US has learned only that spreading the money around makes the grift last longer. It makes me smile when I hear about how technologically advanced the US is, people have forgotten that the US was hitchhiking on Russian rockets for most of the century so far. Thank God the “Commercial Crew Program” (think Uber) saved them from that.

Jack Boniface
Jack Boniface
Member
1 year ago

The guy at Military and Foreign Affairs Network the past week put up two videos featuring satellite photos of Russia’s giant tank and APC factories. They are pumping out armor like M&Ms. Nothing like it in the West. They’re in it for the long haul.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Jack Boniface
1 year ago

And on the human side of the equation, both the Russians and the Chinese are appealing to the traditional masculine virtues of toughness and martial ability, in their ads recruiting troops.

Meanwhile, our military is showing woke lesbians in their military recruitment ads, and our military “leaders” are bragging about the ever-increasing numbers of gays and transgenders and angry Black women making up our military.

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Yes, and friends of mine who are currently deployed have been regaling us with stories about how these special gays, trannies and blacks are now ‘above the law’. Any time they have to be corrected, it’s an immediate EO complaint.

I’ve seen it myself in Norfolk, the absolute hub of the US Navy, where a black woman, E5 sailor with purple highlights in her hair (totally against regs) walked around like a fucking queen. No one was about to put their career on the line by calling her out.

This won’t end well.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

Yeah, a perfect example of that was the recent photo of all the Black women in a recent West Point graduating class, raising their fists in the ‘Black power salute’; a gesture which was against all regulations, and which would’ve gotten *any other group* severely reprimanded. But of course the “proud women of color” were allowed to get away with it; which of course only further empowers them to be even more overbearing. > Could this be a deliberate move on the part of current military “leaders” to discourage legacy white patriotic Americans from joining the military? Making it easier… Read more »

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

That seems likely; but perhaps it were wise to recall that ither empires which populated their armies with peoples other than their own lived to regret it. And in this case, they are going out of their way to jam as many spitefuk mutants into uniform as possible who are actuvely hostile to the foundational stock of the nation, as well as any other follow-on groups of Europeans. So when they look around, and begin to question why they need to follow orders from white officers, insubordination could be the order of the day. In their minds, it’ll be just… Read more »

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

Yep. Andi it’s a double whammy against combat efficiency. It not only reduces effectiveness within the armed forces but also dissuades the people who would normally fill the ranks from joining up at all. I’m ex-military from the 80s and there is NO way I’d join up today if I was a youngster.

Jeffrey Zoar
Jeffrey Zoar
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

tbf, a pink haired tranny can sit in an easy chair and pilot a drone just as well as anyone else (and would probably be much more willing to follow orders to target white American civilians in say, Arkansas, after all they are probably unvaccinated Trump voters)

c matt
c matt
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

“Shaniqua, we need those HIMARS firing ASAP!!!”

“I said I’m on BREAK !”

Maxda
Maxda
1 year ago

The Russians have flipped the expensive aircraft/cheap missile thing. As soon as we deploy a Patriot or Sea Sparrow battery in the Ukraine, they’ll swarm it with $20k drones. The Ukes will shoot down the cheap drones with million dollar missiles until the Ruskies kill the radar with a hypersonic missile. Then the drones will finish off the launchers.

c matt
c matt
Reply to  Maxda
1 year ago

Sir, we’ve gamed out the Russian anti-air defense systems and according to our analysis, we should have a solid 20 year income stream.

Brian
Brian
1 year ago

The unit cost of the most recent batch of F-35s is $80 million, not $1 billion. Recent model F-16s are 80-100M, F-15s 100-100M.

The vast majority of US defense spending is personnel and sustainment, not weapon purchases.

Every soviet/russian air defense system attacked by Western-quality air forces since 1973 has been effectively neutralized. Doing so takes combinations of equipment, doctrine, and training that neither the Ukrainians nor Russians have.

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  Brian
1 year ago

Stake your life on that would you? Happy talk for the REMFs, not so much for the front line personnel.

I also don’t think that some of the most recent Russian weaponry has been put to a test by US systems. Living on past glories can remove you from the board right quick.

Evil Sandmich
Evil Sandmich
Reply to  JerseyJeffersonian
1 year ago

In the end some of the Russian higher-end gear “suffers” from the same issues as GAE gear. Russian manned Russian air defense systems are going to work a bit differently than Arab manned Russian air defense systems.

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  Evil Sandmich
1 year ago

And to take that logic a bit further, having US Wunderwaffen in the hands of the massively DIE-infused soldiers/marines/airmen (oops, PC fail)/sailors may not provide any advantage in the final analysis.

I don’t think our most likely serious adversaries are going out of their way to do likewise. Because that would be stupid and suicidal, and they are too smart for that.

IPFreely
IPFreely
Reply to  Brian
1 year ago

https://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/much-f-35-actually-cost/

The cheapest f-35 is at least 178 million for the base aircraft—these don’t include weapons/weapons systems and support material and personal. While not a billion dollars, is insanely high. All of those Soviet air defense systems were operated by 3rd world countries.

mmack
mmack
Reply to  IPFreely
1 year ago

“The cheapest f-35 is at least 178 million for the base aircraft—these don’t include weapons/weapons systems and support material”

$178 Million and you probably don’t get floor mats or a cargo net either. 😏

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  mmack
1 year ago

now that’s funny! have to pay extra for the undercoating too 😛

mmack
mmack
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

Jerry Lundegaard will get ya $100 off the TruCoat.

Comes from the factory that way ya know.

Ostei Kozelskii
Member
Reply to  mmack
1 year ago

Butt dey gotz a bumpin’ sistem wit wufferz, an dey gotz kurb feelerz

Knuckles5
Knuckles5
Reply to  Brian
1 year ago

If you read the article posted above the Marine Corp version costs 251 million before weapons systems and the Navy version costs 337 million before weapons systems. By the time you get one prepped and delivered to a war zone you could easily be a 1/2 billion in

TomA
TomA
1 year ago

Cheap drones are a game changer, be they for surveillance or as hunter-killers. And the software for autonomous operation already exists. Now add in swarm dynamics and no one is safe on the battlefield any longer. These things can even fly in through a window or down a stair chase, so hiding in a building or basement is ineffective cover. Ditto for all armored vehicles, tanks, and artillery pieces; it just takes a slightly larger drone and shaped charge. Worse yet, high altitude UAVs can detect troop location and movement with high resolution and transfer targeting coordinates to stand-off weapons… Read more »

B125
B125
1 year ago

I dont think Russia wants to end the war soon either.

Its a giant grift for the American MIC, but its also benefitting Russia. Since the start of the war they’ve become more closely allied with Eurasian partners. Their economy is doing fine. The economies of the West are hurting more. Russia is using up excess minority males from ethnic areas and throwing them into the meat grinder.

Neither side has the motivation to end the war so it just drags on and on. Most of the crazies have taken down their Ukrainian flags by now.

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  B125
1 year ago

i have been thinking this myself, of late. my guess is the russians want to kill as many uke males as possible, before finishing off the zelensky regime. they are also draining nato weapon stocks, making all of western europe vulnerable.

Evil Sandmich
Evil Sandmich
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

Russia has a nice slow bleed going against GAE so it may be tempting to just keep it rolling; the longer the war goes on the more the Ukes hoover up money and resources from GAE and dump it into a black hole, all the while GAE trannies on what’s really important: confiscating everyone’s gas stove.
Unfortunately for that strategy it looks like the Ukes are about spent.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Evil Sandmich
1 year ago

Poles are available, they seem to be happy to stick their heads on the chopping block for other Europeans and Americans who hate them.

Polack
Polack
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

How many Poles like that do you personally know? There was an article floating around recently, about how there is no Ukrainian soldiers left and now it’s Polish regulars fighting on the frontlines in Donbas. That’s about as nonsensical as that whole ghost of Kiev drama, but for some reason that bs gained a lot traction on dissident scene. Why would anybody think that Russians, out of all the people involved in this circus, would be more trustworthy than everybody else is beyond me. If I had to guess, I would think that some people can’t or don’t want to… Read more »

Ostei Kozelskii
Member
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

It would serve the GAE right if its malign meddling created a self-fulfilling prophecy of a Russian invasion of central and western Europe.

Andy Texan
Reply to  Ostei Kozelskii
1 year ago

A Russian invasion of the EU/NATO might be a blessing in disguise. The only way to end the yoke of the WEF cult is to destroy it root and branch. Of course this might be enough to launch the nukes.

Polack
Polack
Reply to  Andy Texan
1 year ago

Russian invasion sure sounds like a blessing. I’m sure you want your own hometown to be blessed like that.

What’s wron with people these days…

Alzaebo
Alzaebo
1 year ago

I know exactly what we’ve learned, because I heard it on the mainstream media:

Citizens who vote are a threat to our democracy.

Tempazpan
Tempazpan
Reply to  Alzaebo
1 year ago

“Our democracy” really means “their democracy”. “Our representatives” in Washington are really “their representatives” to us.

Diversity Heretic
Member
1 year ago

Good post by Z-man and good comments! It is, however, often difficult to do a “lessons learned” during the course of a war. Detailed analysis and honest appraisals are not easy when hostilities are progressing. Thinking that you’ve solved a tactical problem can lead to disaster if the enemy has also been considering the problem. In 1917, for example, French general Robert Nivelle ordered an attack on German positions along the Chemin-des-Dames. He planned to employ his artillery in rolling barrages that would enable his troops to get close enough to enemy trenches before the defenders could get in position… Read more »

Glenfilthie
Glenfilthie
Member
Reply to  Diversity Heretic
1 year ago

“ It is, however, often difficult to do a “lessons learned” during the course of a war. Detailed analysis and honest appraisals are not easy when hostilities are progressing.” ———— Nonsense. A year ago when the two armies met, the losses on both sides were horrendous. Unlike the Ukes and the West, the Russians analyzed their mistakes and moved to correct them. They analyzed the enemy’s strengths and adjusted tactics to neutralize them. The greatest Russian strength is that they can do this honestly. In the beginning the attrition rates were roughly equal. Now they are massively one sided, with… Read more »

Tempazpan
Tempazpan
Reply to  Glenfilthie
1 year ago

Any direct war with Russia and, like the Union in the Civil War, the incompetent and useless political generals will have to be worked through and discarded before getting to the serious Grants. By that time we may well be done for. And who in their right mind will go die for Hunter Biden?

Imagine if, in 1940, it had emerged publicly that FDR and his family were corruptly enriching themselves in cahoots with the British elite and corporations. Do you think Americans would have signed up for WW2?

jake
jake
Reply to  Tempazpan
1 year ago

FDR hated Britain, he was more likely to have been in cahoots with the Russians.

mmack
mmack
Reply to  Diversity Heretic
1 year ago

DH,

Question for you re the Nivelle offensive: One reason I heard the offensive failed, in addition to your notes, was written copies of the plans went out to even the NCO level. Working theory is Der Germans had captured copies and a darn good idea of what was coming. Any corroboration?

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Diversity Heretic
1 year ago

What does “as bad as” mean? My readings have always put the loses of Shermans at 6+ per Panzer. Basically the Sherman was undergunned and underarmored. They were fast and reliable and cheap to build…but they were not up to the standards of a heavy tank of the time.

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

It was not for nothing that the Germans, who had encountered many British-manned Sherman tanks, began to refer to them as “Tommy cookers” due to their propensity to erupt into flames when soundly struck by their tank fire.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

I think they saying at the time was that each Tiger was as good as 10 Shermans. The problem was that there was always an 11th Sherman.

james wilson
james wilson
Member
Reply to  Mike
1 year ago

The ten Sherman crews and their fifty men might not see it your way.

fakeemail
fakeemail
1 year ago

“I Had A Guaranteed Military Sale With ED-209! Renovation Program! Spare Parts For 25 Years! Who Cares If It Worked Or Not?!” -Dick Jones, “Robocop”

Winning wars or saving troop lives is besides the point. The point is making money and inviting in more “refugees.” Invade the world, invite the world.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
1 year ago

“Whether anyone in the West is learning anything from this is hard to know, but most likely the corruption is so thick that none of this is making sense to them.” This is the wrong question. From the perspective of Raytheon and its Step-n-Fetchits like Uncle Lloyd Austin, Afghanistan was a smashing success that produced a 20-year revenue stream. Slack-jawed morons on Team ‘Murica, along with glassy-eyed idiots and psychopaths who thought Pride Week was what Kabul wanted, served as free lobbyists for the MIC. White Alphas were slaughtered. So win/win. The right question is what will stop this madness?… Read more »

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  Jack Dobson
1 year ago

” White Alphas were slaughtered”

The clowns who sign up for the military grift are not Alphas.

Tempazpan
Tempazpan
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

It’s a way up and out for a lot of folk. I don’t blame anyone who signed up to get paid/free college/whatever.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

I have not idea of what the present ranks look like wrt alphas. I hope they’ve wised up. However, the tip of the spear is a small part of the US forces, the rest bring up the rear and support the tip. So the alphas need only be a small part of the entire military.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

Have you seen the articles about drug and human trafficing investigations at Bragg? It looks like the tip of the spear is blunting itself as we get closer to war.

Our SOCOM will be worthless in a general war with Russia. They’ve never faced a peer before and I think they’ll be rocked back on their heels when they encounter white warriors like Russians.

Jack Dobson
Jack Dobson
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

Point taken. Old thinking dies hard.

jake
jake
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

Dan Crenshaw is the best America has

c matt
c matt
Reply to  Jack Dobson
1 year ago

Short of military defeat what will stop it is loss of reserve currency status.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  c matt
1 year ago

The big event of 2022 wasn’t Putin finally having enough of the ziocon shit, it was Xi’s visit to S.A. I’ve said this before: Recall that just a few weeks before Biden, or what passes as Biden, had arrived in Riyadh to beg for more oil, got an Uber from the airport and was greeted by a fist bump. His two hour meeting was attended by several other characters, none of any note, before he was told to piss off home empty handed. Xi Jinping however, had his plane escorted by Saudi Jets- I thought I counted seven, and upon… Read more »

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

Yep. That was a massive, massive event that the MSM completely failed to understand.

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
1 year ago

The first war was fought with spears and clubs and the last war on Earth will be too…..meanwhile…….. In fairness to the MIC, the issue with the drones, UAVs etc. has been pretty well understood for many years. The procurement/development cycle for these systems is very long because they are complicated and must be integrated with existing systems. Disrupting Afghan weddings is one thing, but operating in a high-threat environment is another. And it’s hard to develop a constituency for cheap solutions. The countermeasures to sophisticated air defense are drones/UAVs and “intelligent” high-performance UAVs (like the Loyal Wingman program now… Read more »

Tars Tarkas
Tars Tarkas
Reply to  Captain Willard
1 year ago

I really don’t understand why Russia is allowing the US to provide real time information to Ukraine, probably involving satellites or even why they are allowing the starlink satellites, which they know the Ukrainians are using, to remain in orbit. Either they don’t want to use tech to destroy the satellites or they can’t, which seems surprising to me.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
1 year ago

Perhaps it’s a case of mutual restraint, as in the doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” regarding nuclear war.

Maybe they realize that if they started knocking down other nations’ satellites, those other nations are sure to reciprocate in-kind; and soon no one would have any satellites left.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

I think Putin is deliberately using only the weapons and technology that he has to. As the Duran guys say, the Neo-con’s have no reverse gear and know only how to double down . I’m sure Russia is planning and preparing for their likely reaction when Ukraine collapses. The less pre-view of Russia’s technology, the better.

(((They))) Live
(((They))) Live
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
1 year ago

The Russians want access to space themselves, if they start blowing up Starlink sats they create a huge mess of debris in LEO. not a good idea

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
1 year ago

I imagine the Russians are probably learning a great deal every day about our abilities, but also our limitations. If this turns into all-out war with the West, they likely have a plan to knock out our communications abilities pretty quickly and effectively.

Never underestimate the usefulness of waiting and watching your enemy. In their hubris they will reveal far more than they want.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

Joel Skousen suggests a scenario in which an EMP attack first takes out our electrical grid, and is immediately followed by decapitation strikes on our military and governmental targets. Even if most military installations are shielded against EMP attack, taking down our electrical grid for even a few months would unleash civil unrest like we’ve never seen before, and can likely not imagine. US military planners are assuming that the fear that we would immediately retaliate in kind, is what is preventing Russia and/or China from carrying out such a strike. But should they ever develop advanced missile-defense systems which… Read more »

Felix Krull
Member
Reply to  Tars Tarkas
1 year ago

Shooting down satellites is against some protocols about the militarization of outer space. And the Russians are very carefully playing by the rules – not to placate the neocons, but because the world is watching. That’s why Putin spend a lot of time “negotiating”, even if he knows the neocons consider peace agreements little more than toilet paper. He wants to show the Indians and Chinese that he’s the good guy and the US the gangsters. (I’m reading A Princess of Mars at the moment, and it’s just as awesome as when I was 12. If you don’t understand why… Read more »

Andy Texan
Reply to  Felix Krull
1 year ago

Ulysses? Is that a mythological Greek guy? Seriously there is a lot of cultural cache in having read Ulysses from cover to cover (and followed the action). I will never give that up.

Felix Krull
Member
Reply to  Andy Texan
1 year ago

James Joyce’s Ulysses – the most over-hyped piece of literature in history.

Homer’s Odyssey comes highly recommended by Uncle Felix, and it’s not a hard read at all, much easier than the Iliad. It can be read as-is, but I recommend you find a companion reader if you’re not familiar with Greek mythology.

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  Captain Willard
1 year ago

Not possible to contain a large symmetrical war to earth, when your entire communications/targeting systems are in space. Hell, first thing I’d do is knock out all satellites.

Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

Of the many disappointments of the Rus-Uke War, the biggest being the US led by the nose into it by those with larger noses, has been the near-1984 level of cheering by people I have read for years on Instapundit and Ace of Spades HQ.

Every week sees: “counterattack in the Donbass!”, “four weeks to Sevastopol!”, “Moscow in the spring!”

Like so many others over Covid, they have lost their minds.

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

their readers are just as purblind.

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

There’s a comfort in being part of the most powerful nation on Earth, even if said nation is evil. Everyone wants to feel they are on the winning side. It’s why “the right side of history” is such an effective mind-worm.

The only way the old mindset will change is when the people with the old mindset die out.

JerseyJeffersonian
JerseyJeffersonian
Reply to  Chet Rollins
1 year ago

Or get taken out in some way.

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

As I said here yesterday, it took von Manstein and the Wehrmacht at their peak efficiency 7 months to take Sevastopol. 4 weeks, seriously?

I too have been shocked by my grilling friends’ views on this situation. C’est la guerre…..

WOPR
WOPR
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

Insty is predominately click-bait. I’ve given up on them. Green is the main one pushing the Uke propaganda. It might be acceptable if they posted anything that counter balanced it.

Ace of Grillers seem a lot more skeptical of the whole thing. There are only a few die-hards over there.

There’s no beating the anti-Russian propaganda out of Boomers and a lot of Gen-X’ers.

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  WOPR
1 year ago

Ace is getting more and more difficult to read every day. Besides all the ads, the site is just way too focused on the small hat tribe.

KGB
KGB
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

Glad I’m not the only one who noticed how pervasive it’s become.

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

and gainzz!! Ace is writing a book called “The Little Voter That Could” 😛

Gman
Gman
Member
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

The ad deluge is really getting obnoxious. Ya gotta monetize, sure, but it is starting to feel like a UK clickbait tabloid website.

WOPR
WOPR
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

On Ace’s site, most of the co-bloggers are of a certain persuasion. And yeah, I am pretty tired of it as well. I simply don’t care about their travails.

Edgy Civnat
Edgy Civnat
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

People who post on those sites are mostly white civnats so they get all excited when they get to refight WW2 and WW1. The US coming to the rescue to kill all those bad whites in Europe.

Ace of Spades commenters especially have a hate for Europeans; you cannot read any article without some remark about those degenerate Euros who hate America. Any story about Europeans will lead to storied invective “destroying” that ethnic group. Any accounts about non-whites is not indicative of that group. Do not criticize Israel. Israel is the best.

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

I don’t visit normie sites like that, it pisses me off worse than watching MSNBC. But I have to believe that like a lot of other normie conservative sites the comments have been flooded with shills and bots. I can’t understand a nominally conservative being anything but neutral about the Ukraine. But to actively root for them seems out of character for an honest normie conservative. A personal experience back a couple months ago, I had read, not signed up for though, freerepublic since about 2016. Their commenters were pretty based and seemed perceptive. But as soon as the war… Read more »

wendy forward
wendy forward
Reply to  Clayton Barnett
1 year ago

AoSHQ was great on COVID, it was the first site that confirmed my suspicions that it was a scandemic. But I did stop going there a couple years ago for various reasons and now glad I did.

Auntie Analogue
Auntie Analogue
1 year ago

The old saying is, “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.” That’s fine so far as it goes, but what’s missing is . . . strategy. Our side is godawful at strategy, which goes a long way to explain the long string of knee-jerk “missionary” wars that have been costly and that have been embarrassing failures. Strategy is not a purely military (i.e., warfighting) discipline, it consists in every sphere from politics and economics, to geography and logistics, to culture and manpower, and to every other component of strategic wherewithal. A foe needn’t sink a carrier to render it hors de… Read more »

Captain Willard
Captain Willard
Reply to  Auntie Analogue
1 year ago

Based on the US carrier that steamed back to port with a Covid outbreak a few years ago, it seems like 10 hookers in Subic Bay could render the Pacific Fleet useless in one weekend…..

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  Captain Willard
1 year ago

Unfortunately, Subic isn’t what it used to be. It’s all family-friendly shops, restaurants and hotels. Quite nice, really.

La-Z-Man
La-Z-Man
Reply to  Outdoorspro
1 year ago

F***, where else on the internet can I get such information? No irony at all. Z readers know stuff.

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  Auntie Analogue
1 year ago

The electromagnetic catapults on the new Ford-class have been problematic out of the gate.

There are pictures of the wiring bundles available.

I can only think those must be a preventive maintenance nightmare in terms of corrosion prevention in the salty sea air. Any sort of fault in the wire coatings and jackets would cause all sorts of insidious problems.

Severian
1 year ago

To be as generous as possible to the MIC (just as a thought experiment), I wonder how much of our obsession with Wunderwaffen is a chicken-and-egg thing. Take the best WWII tank, the T-34 or whatever. Let’s say that we have the detailed plans for its construction, and can modify it to take modern navigational and targeting equipment. And we can therefore produce it for pennies on the dollar, relatively speaking… Do we still have the industrial capacity to do it? I don’t even mean things like assembly lines to put them together; I mean something like “Turning out 500… Read more »

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Prior to our entry into WWII, the US had *idle* production capacity equal to the entire Axis powers. This due to the lasting Depression and non-recovery at that time. Also idle was the workforce that knew how to operate this capacity. In the end, we could field 16M men (and some women) under arms while still operating the economic base. Which also brings us to a point mentioned in today’s Z-man missive—supply chain (includes communications, intelligence, etc., not just truck drivers) For years I’ve read that the tooth to tail of the US military is something like 1 to 9–those… Read more »

Tempazpan
Tempazpan
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

So basically China wins any conventional war unless we use nukes?

Severian
Reply to  Tempazpan
1 year ago

I’d go further and say that the US will use nukes on a battlefield within the next 5 years. The Juggalos can’t plan, can’t learn, and most importantly can’t back down. So much of the stupidity in the world right now could be solved if the GAE could just take their foot off the gas the tiniest bit… but they can’t, because SJWs gotta SJW and Kagans gotta Kagan. Should it come to actual fighting, “our” forces would get crushed. The smart thing to do at that point would be to sue for peace and accept terms, however humiliating. But… Read more »

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

The F-16 is probably the best example of the high performance manned aircraft produced as a commodity. It was developed under the, “Lightweight Fighter Program,” which is probably one of the most accurate program titles ever. The result was so good that the F-16 turned out to be a very capable ground attack aircraft as well. The engine is probably the most magnificent system in the plane, enabling a top speed of Mach 2.2, which is significantly faster than the twin-engined F/A-18 or Rafale at Mach 1.8. The maintenance burden on the F-16 is one of the lowest of any… Read more »

Reynard
Reynard
Member
Reply to  The Wild Geese Howard
1 year ago

Are we still pumping out F-16s? Back around ’09-’10 I knew a guy who knew a guy who was an engineer in Florida, and I got to check out an early mod of the F-35 when I was down there for vacation. I remember being somewhat disappointed hearing him humbly talk down the plane. I think I remember him saying it wasn’t designed to be as good as the F-16 on a pure “fighter-plane” standard (but maybe he was referencing the F-22?)

dr_mantis_toboggan_md
Member
Reply to  Reynard
1 year ago

I would disagree with Z. Manned fighter aircraft aren’t obsolete. UAVs are great for attacks on moving targets, if they have a man in the loop. They’re also great if they’re autonomous for attacks on static targets, a role they’ve taken from the F-117. The problem is every advance in warfare has a counter advance. When we and the Israelis found out how deadly the Soviet-built SAMs were, we developed ECM systems, “Wild Weasel” SEAD tactics to hunt down emitters and launchers to clear a corridor for friendly aircraft and other means such as flying nap of the Earth to… Read more »

Mike
Mike
Reply to  dr_mantis_toboggan_md
1 year ago

The HARM anti-radiation missile is used to take out enemy radars and up until going up against Russia it has done a great job. But read the Russian reports, they are shooting down HARMs regularly. Their anti-missile program seems to be well ahead of ours. Not foolproof but better. HARMS are integral to US ability to supress enemy defenses so air superiority may not be possible with escalation, then neither side will have superiority.

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  dr_mantis_toboggan_md
1 year ago

Based on the publicly reported thrust-to-weight ratios and wing loading numbers for the F-16 and F-35 it’s difficult to agree with the idea that the 35 is as, or more maneuverable than the 16.

I suppose it is possible that the numbers reported for the 35 are massaged to give the impression that it is less maneuverable, since we know that the gov lies about all other numbers like inflation, unemployment, money supply, etc.

Boarwild
Boarwild
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

In 1979 the U.S. Army’s MBT was the M-60; those were the days when the West anticipated an armored slugfest with the Warsaw Pact see-sawing across the fields of Europe. Back then we still had the production capacity to turn to a conventional war footing, possibly equaling even the thousands of M-4 Shermans turned out during WWII. But those days are long gone. With the advent of technology, the upper echelons of the military seem to have fallen in love with the “whiz kid” toys they have now. These devices tend to be not simple things that can be massed… Read more »

Boarwild
Boarwild
Reply to  Boarwild
1 year ago

Sorry – typo: meant “1970” not “1979” although the M-60 still was the Army’s MBT then.

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

i am not an expert in steel making, but i remember reading articles about how coal based steel mills were being replaced by new mills that don’t use coal – but mostly only work with scrap steel. so do we have much/any capacity for creating “new” steel
(instead of recycling “old” steel)?

Mike
Mike
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

Recycled steel, I’ve read, isn’t suitable for making high quality steel for armor plate and the like.

Felix Krull
Member
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

I think it was McGregor who explained that the Russian armaments industry is vastly over-scaled, their factories producing only trickles of weapons of what their size should indicate.

So in Western industrial doctrine they are hopelessly ineffective, compared to the just-in-time, LEAN-optimized, cost-conscious Western factories.

But it also means the Russians can ramp out their production very fast by activating all that dormant production capacity, and that seems to be exactly what’s going on: America is being beaten on industrial output; for now, at least, until new factories are built.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  Felix Krull
1 year ago

“at least, until new factories are built.”

Good to see you have a sense of humor. The
German’s make the machine tools to make the few machines the US makes.
The Swiss make those used by the Germans. All take advantage of the remarkable advances in Materials technology made in the past 30 years.
All of that is dependent on the worlds largest supplier of rare earths etc: Russia.

Felix Krull
Member
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

REMs are not actually rare – with the exception of lithium – and the US has tons and tons of them.

But they pollute like hell when you refine them – that’s why we let China do it, because they can just dump the tailings in the nearest river. If America were to refine it’s own REMs, it would cost a fortune to do it in an environmental responsible fashion.

La-Z-Man
La-Z-Man
Reply to  Felix Krull
1 year ago

Why don’t we have another country do it, instead of China. This is the question I often ask, if you’re to outsource the manufacturing of all your stuff, from weapons to medicine, why TF is it outsourced to a single GD country?! And a rival country at that?

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
1 year ago

Speaking of war on the cheap, aka “asymmetric warfare”, one can’t help but notice that there was a National Ground Stop for all US air traffic today. Last time this happened was 9/11. Reason? An FAA computer system that updates NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) to the airlines failed. Updates distributed notes about things like runway closures, missing taxi signs, that kind of thing. This kind of snarl makes for a real mess. If I were a peer power tired of having my billion dollar pipelines blown up and my enemy soldiers being shipped to the US for training, it’s… Read more »

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 year ago

There must be something more to this or maybe I’m not understanding what happened. One of the core features of modern Over the Air update systems in all platforms, from your phone to massive distributed networks, is to fallback to the previous version on a failed update. The worst that should have happened is that the data would be a little old while they patch the update.

mikeski
Member
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 year ago

I’m sure it’ll be fine. Secretary Bootygig’s in charge, and he’ll attend to this once he gets back from vacation. And finishes “chestfeeding” his fashion accessory.

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
Reply to  mikeski
1 year ago

Some wag elsewhere said:

“If the American public knows the name of the Department of Transportation, you’re really, really doing it wrong.”

Compsci
Compsci
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 year ago

Again, “one swallow does not a summer make”, but such failures are what “Critical Fraction Theory” would predict. As the general national IQ declines, the numbers of competent people to maintain and expand the technical infrastructure declines as well. Eventually something gives.

Confounding—but not detracting from— the theory is the decline in our general education standards and the promotion of incompetence through AA quotas.

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  Compsci
1 year ago

that’s what i thought, reading comments today – all the social engineering stuff is going to degrade our ability to function as a society, especially in precision manufacturing, and operating complex weapons systems.

RealityRules
RealityRules
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 year ago

The airline industry is plain broken. As you point out, their chief concern seems to be slick advertisements announcing how individual, expressive, “diverse and inclusive”, their stewardzhess can be, claiming their country has no people or history and ensuring that at least 50% of the pilots are black. They are currently scouring Compton for pilots, and refusing to raise the retirement age for pilots – willingly creating a shortage of pilots. Now, I suppose that piloting an aircraft is going to become a job akin to a Walmart greeter if/when the AI reaches that point. Nonetheless, creating a more fair… Read more »

What?
What?
Reply to  ProZNoV
1 year ago

Or we had warning of air-related terror event on 1-11 which needed to be disproven or eliminated. Lester Holt on NBC also said (“coincidence”) that Canada’s system also went down.

The real Bill
The real Bill
1 year ago

Lawrence Keeley’s book ‘War Before Civilization’ uses numerous examples from archaeology and history to persuasively debunk the notion of “the peaceful savage”:

https://www.amazon.com/War-Before-Civilization-Peaceful-Savage/dp/0195119126

btp
Member
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

that was a very interesting book. Looking again that the chart outlining the percentage of war deaths among various tribes and groups.

All the primitive groups are just insane – 0.6% – 0.8% are common. Germany and Russian in the 20th century only clock in around 0.18%

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  btp
1 year ago

Yes.

Another way it was interesting, is that it overthrew decades of misconception regarding prehistoric people.

It turns out that the experts and the textbooks— and the mainstream consensus they reflect— have been wrong!

One more victory for realism against utopian ideology.

Hun
Hun
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

War is older than humanity. Even chimps wage wars.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Hun
1 year ago

True: and until recently, the concept of the “noble, peaceful savage” among humans, had iit’s parallel in beliefs about chimpanzees; the consensus among the “experts” was that they were basically peaceful.

But Jane Goodall’s close observations revealed the extent of how brutal they really are: if a group of males from one band encounters a lone male from another band, they are likely to kill him, by literally tearing his body apart.

Ubiquity
Ubiquity
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Didn’t Goodall’s study show that groups of chimps from one pack went out hunting for lone males from another pack?

They took out the largest rival males one by one, then when the numbers were in their favor they went all in and killed the rest of the rival males en masse and took over the rival pack.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Ubiquity
1 year ago

Indeed.

And recent genetic data seems to support the notion that that’s how prehistoric humans operated as well.

IIRC, genetic data from prehistoric Britain is showing that when successive groups of foreign invaders invaded Britain, the genes unique to indigenous males quickly disappeared from the genetic record; almost certainly indicating that they were killed off; while the genes of the *female* indigenous population quickly became incorporated into the genetic pool of the conquering group.

‘Kill the men, and take the women as mates’; just like the chimps do.

Felix Krull
Member
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

I thought the peace-loving hippie stone age trope had died long ago.

Virtually every bone you dig up from the Mesolithic has some kind of scarring from weapons, and it is estimated that +30% of all men died violently.

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
1 year ago

I highly doubt that the MIC and military intelligence have learned much from the war. The talking heads continue to firmly believe that the US and NATO would wipe the floor with the Russians if they ever faced each other. They believe that our technology edge would turn the battle into a blood bath for the Russians. Basically, in their minds, it would be like the British army in the 1800s facing Africans with spears. So, why are the Ukrainians not destroying the Russians with our help? They argue that it’s because we’re not giving them the good stuff and… Read more »

Severian
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
1 year ago

I don’t think we have to worry about that. Given how The Media be, the minute the Ukrainians start visibly losing, The Narrative will instantly shift from “The heroic Ukrainians will be in Moscow by summer!” to “The tragic Ukrainians never had a chance against the Big Bad Bear” (and if by some miracle the Juggalos in DC come to their senses and dump Zelensky, it’ll be “The hopelessly corrupt Ukrainians never had a chance because of their hopeless corruption”). Our weapons shipments will be memory-holed, because of course we don’t want to waste our valuable Star Wars Death Star… Read more »

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

Yeah, we started seeing something like that this summer when the Russians were advancing. Stories about incompetent Ukrainian soldiers/generals/politicians started popping up. When the Russians stop advancing, the stories went away.

The loss will be blamed on either incompetent Ukrainians or that the Russian military is terrible but it just overwhelmed the Ukrainians with numbers – despite the fact that the Russians have been outnumbered from the beginning.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  Severian
1 year ago

I think the Doran guys are right. When the collapse is imminent, if they can’t double down, they’ll move on: Iran anybody?

DLS
DLS
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
1 year ago

Regular readers of these comments see this quote on here frequently, but it has never been so apt:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” -Upton Sinclair

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

I live in Northern Virginia. Trust me, there are a lot of businesses and people who make a very nice living off of the current system. None of them want it changed.

NoVa is jammed full of IT guys with security clearance who maintain and help build our very sophisticated weapons and communications systems. They like their jobs and no Indian can take it either.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
1 year ago

I’m not sure if it’s the case that no Indians (or foreigners) are getting those jobs. I grew up in Northern Virginia. My family moved to McLean in 1955 when I was five years old, and I lived there until I left home for college at 18 in 1968. Then in 2016, I returned to the house I grew up in to take care of my father in the last years of his life. So I lived in Northern Virginia again from 2016 to 2019. My anecdotal reaction on returning was that there were a lot of foreigners; certainly a… Read more »

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Oh, there are tons of foreigners, including Indians, in NoVa. The South Riding area is a massive Indian hub. Manassas might as well be Central America with a bit of Africa thrown in. Ironically, NoVa gets whiter the closer in you go. It’s too expensive for Hispanics, so N. Arlington, McLean, Vienna and Reston are still pretty white, though the Indians and Asians are growing quickly. But the Asians and Indians don’t get to take the IT jobs (or many of them) for govt contractors because of the security clearance issue. Those guys are protected against the foreign horde, which… Read more »

RealityRules
RealityRules
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

Biden did a call with some Indian (with a dot not a feather), dignitary or political hack. He lauded them for taking over our country and said how wonderful it was. Apparently they are working for NASA, and he was gleeful about that.

Meanwhile, our schools are worse than ever.

Mow Noname
Mow Noname
Reply to  DLS
1 year ago

Great Sinclair Lewis quote.

Along those lines, I’m sitting in the lobby of a coffee shop inside an affluent suburban hospital. Everyone is wearing masks while trying to drink coffee.
In between raising/ lowering their masks in order to take furtive sips, the two lab coats next to me were taking about how they and their family all had Covid over Christmas.

La-Z-Man
La-Z-Man
Reply to  Mow Noname
1 year ago

It actually is Upton Sinclair, socialist writer of The Jungle.

Rando
Rando
Reply to  Citizen of a Silly Country
1 year ago

The Ukraine is very corrupt. There is the concern that any good things we give them will be sold on the black market instead of being used to fight the Russians.

Then again, we don’t even have enough of the good stuff for our own troops, let alone enough to give to the Ukraine.

PrimiPilus
PrimiPilus
1 year ago

Seems our civilian and military leadership, as well as those paid to dream up the reality of future-war, were totally taken in by our creative class prognostications on impending tekkie-coolness of conflict. Star Trek accidentally accidentally feeds back onto and disrupts the actual realities? Star Wars just too cool not to try to emulate? We’ve just bamboozled ourselves. .

Or maybe — decades old Russian (Soviet?) and Chinese ops? /s

usNthem
usNthem
1 year ago

Probably through the 20th century, weaponry advanced as far as effectiveness in killing more people more efficiently. However, tactics were slower to evolve, thus the Civil War was much bloodier in a shorter period of time than the earlier 19th century conflicts and WW1 was far bloodier still. The US has been enamored with glitzy high tech “shock and awe” weaponry for decades now and it works reasonably well against third world countries with no ability to fight back in kind. Although as has been seen, it hardly guarantees any conclusive victory – ie: Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan etc.… Read more »

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  usNthem
1 year ago

The Crimean War killed 450K in 30 months.

ProZNoV
ProZNoV
1 year ago

Winning or losing, there is only one strategy the US always pursues.

Escalate, escalate, escalate.

(Until the money and/or bodies run out. And since 1945, it’s always “lose”).

G Lordon Giddy
G Lordon Giddy
1 year ago

I have wondered why the Russians are not attacking the supply lines from Poland or Romania with more vigor or maybe they are, I am just not hearing about it? The Ukrainians seem to be getting weapons systems to their front lines at this point in the war. Or am I wrong about that?
It’s a tragic war for white demographics and hopefully ends this year.

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

There’s no doubt that for most of 2022, Putin was very cautious about killing civilians and attacking infrastructure that would cause problems for civilians. He obviously hoped that the war would end quickly and that Russia could maintain a decent relationship with the Ukrainian people.

That no longer seems to be the case.

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Agree that Russia doesn’t want to run Ukraine. Who would. But they do want a buffer state. Which makes me wonder how this whole thing ends. Russia no longer trusts the word of the West, so it will demand a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. It may even take over all of the land east of the Dnieper River. Outside of Kharkiv and the Donbas, eastern Ukraine is very lightly populated, so not too hard to control. This would give Russia a natural barrier and a land buffer. Regardless, I can’t see the neocons accepting a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine in whatever form.… Read more »

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Please Z, don’t stoke my imagination lol. Trying hard to not stare into that particular abyss.

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I was just looking at a population density map of northeast Ukraine. Didn’t look to populated. Now, southeast Ukraine definitely is, but that’s heavily Russian so figured it wouldn’t be a problem for Russia. Anyway, I always thought that this map seemed like a nice way to divide Ukraine. But it’s hard to see the neocons agreeing to this divide and a Russia-friendly Ukrainian govt. And then there’s the economic sanctions. If Russia was to win the physical war in Ukraine and the economic war (simply by surviving and slowly – and quietly – having the sanctions lifted), it would… Read more »

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

My fear is that NATO or Poland send troops into western Ukraine for “humanitarian” purposes (refugees, food, whatever). This allows them to stop any collapse of the Ukrainian government.

Now, we have a stand-off. The Russians don’t want to start a world war, but they don’t want to let western Ukraine remain hostile.

But, this is where grabbing southern and eastern Ukraine comes in handy. Russia has a buffer zone and a natural barrier. Regardless, the West moving into western Ukraine to prop up the Zelensky government is something that I fear.

usNthem
usNthem
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I kind of wonder why the Russians haven’t seriously tried to take out Zelensky. He seems to always be out and about – not hunkered down in some armored deep bunker. I suppose they have their reasons.

Forever Templar
Forever Templar
Reply to  G Lordon Giddy
1 year ago

Those are both NATO countries. Hitting supply lines in those countries would roll out the red carpet for the US to commit itself to open hostilities with the Russians. That’s what the yanks desire more than anything, but publicly both sides are committed to a self defense posture and never be the first to attack. No telling what the Russian clandestine services are up to, however.

Forever Templar
Forever Templar
Reply to  Forever Templar
1 year ago

Blah, you meant supply lines established in Ukerainr. I’m, sorry, I totally misread that.

MikeCLT
MikeCLT
1 year ago

The insanity of our rulers in looking for war with Russia and China at the same time is mind boggling. I look at their actions and think I must be missing something. But I am not.

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  MikeCLT
1 year ago

It’s because our military leaders truly believe that we have such technologically superior weapons that we’d crush either Russians or Chinese in direct conflict.

As I mentioned in my comment, our military believes that a fight between us and anyone would be similar to the British army in the 1800s fighting Africans with spears or, at worst, disorganized Africans with antiquated rifles.

Mr. Generic
Mr. Generic
Reply to  MikeCLT
1 year ago

I’ve thought about this quite a lot and the place I keep returning to is that our rulers do *not* want to directly fight either Russia or China (let alone both) but they are very interested in giving off the impression that they do. As we saw with the origin story of the coof, there is more high-level coordination between the top levels of the Chinese and U.S. governments than either is happy to publicly admit. The ruling elite of U.S.A., Europe, China, and Russia all have more in common with each other than with their own people. Eternal global… Read more »

Tempazpan
Tempazpan
Reply to  Mr. Generic
1 year ago

You mean like the COVID coordination? Awfully convenient for getting rid of protestors in Hong King and France, not to mention the Orange Gorilla.

Evil Sandmich
Evil Sandmich
Reply to  Mr. Generic
1 year ago

The ruling elite of U.S.A., Europe, China, and Russia all have more in common with each other than with their own people

All indications are that Putin wanted to do nearly whatever it took to be accepted into the Kool Kids Klub, but had to finally draw the line at a hostile army looking to end him. Xi is trying to keep one foot in each pond, but China is probably one or two heart attacks away from gay pride parades in Peking.

Hemid
Hemid
Reply to  Mr. Generic
1 year ago

Governments are often rivals but never nemeses. They bond over their shared enemy, the people.

The thing I most hope our guys learn from this war is that the ex-Soviet European states, especially Poland, aren’t “based” or even anti-communist. Their people have been taught to hate Russians—the Russian *people*, especially the gopnik/vatnik (deplorables)—not their former government(s). All white countries are pozzed beyond recovery.

And Putin still hates you for being white, like he’s always said.

Major Hoople
Major Hoople
Member
1 year ago

Appreciate the links on the war. I’ve occasionally been following Mercouris and moon of Alabama, so it’s nice to have additional sources. It is amazing to see the lockstep propaganda on the war from regime media, and how most people accept it. Russia as a Cold War enemy helps that along quite a bit.

mikeski
Member
Reply to  Major Hoople
1 year ago

moon of Alabama

Show me the way to the next whiskey bar.

Member
1 year ago

American design philosophy for weapons systems changed at the end of WWII from cheap and relatively simple to technically complex and expensive. The US military were impressed with the technical brilliance of many German weapons systems. The brilliant technology was difficult for the Germans to produce in the quantities needed but the US military thought that American capacity for mass production would overcome that problem. It hasn’t. The Russian design philosophy for weapons has always been to make them as simple and as robust as possible. The result is the ability to sustain prolonged conflicts. Logistics win wars even if… Read more »

Citizen of a Silly Country
Citizen of a Silly Country
Reply to  Raymond R
1 year ago

Yes, we’ve gone all in with the idea that our weapons are so superior as to be almost invincible. They view it as a fight between our repeating rifle and their musket.

We don’t need huge amounts to defeat them. We’d mow them down, killing at least five to one. The war would end quickly.

That’s our military’s belief. Even after Ukraine, it still is.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  Raymond R
1 year ago

Not to deny anything you say; but I believe that currently, the Russians have outpaced us technologically as well: having developed hypersonic multi-warhead missiles, which are capable of evading any of our current anti-missile defenses, which are kinetic in nature: they need to actually physically strike the incoming missile in order to destroy it.

As I understand it, the new warheads the Russians have developed are capable of maneuvering on their own— making it virtually impossible to strike them all with kinetic missiles— and because of that our current anti-missile systems are helpless against them.

The Wild Geese Howard
The Wild Geese Howard
Reply to  The real Bill
1 year ago

If the Russian hypersonics are as advertised, they most certainly had to have made multiple breakthroughs in the realms of aerospace engineering, materials science, and communications theory to have realized and fielded these systems.

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  The Wild Geese Howard
1 year ago

Well, unless the Russians are completely bullshitting us— which I guess is not out of the question— it would appear that they are well on their way to solving those technological issues.

https://news.yahoo.com/hypersonic-missiles-terrify-u-military-172900827.html

SamlAdams
SamlAdams
1 year ago

“Till Stoneman’s cavalry came and tore up the tracks again”. This lesson keeps getting re-learned. What years of fighting goatherders has blinded us to is how fast two industrial powers at war expend munitions and equipment. That used to be the North American strength. Hell, in 1942 little old Canada outproduced the whole of the greater Reich in mechanized vehicles. Guess we’ll learn the hard way.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
1 year ago

“Making billion dollar jet fighters is much more fun and profitable than producing cheap drone technology or building better field artillery.”

“Once the contract with the military was fulfilled, the men and facilities to make the stuff was repurposed. For those cases it means starting production from scratch.”

The free market, unbound from a higher authority that enforces the common good, destroys itself through short sightedness.

Hoagie
Hoagie
Reply to  LineInTheSand
1 year ago

The free market has nothing to do with military contracts. It’s all run by a “higher authority”.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  Hoagie
1 year ago

Excellent reply! I think that we’re arguing about the semantics of “free market” and the likelihood that the kind of free market that you are defending can ever exist, but I’m going to ponder your worthwhile rejoinder.

Paintersforms
Paintersforms
Reply to  LineInTheSand
1 year ago

Maybe not shortsightedness but a limited understanding of value. Not unlike Science! People missing the forest for the trees.

Chet Rollins
Chet Rollins
1 year ago

The real shift in geopolitics is going to happen when ranged missile technology get to the point where aircraft carriers are just floating coffins. At that point any military threat to China pretty much evaporates, and the U.S. has been ineffective in their other go-to, Color Revolution, in that country. The military is still doubling down on space-age type technology. Have a buddy who works in defense who told me there is a massive shift to laser technology as well as researching dropping large objects from space onto a target, think the AI on the moon in “The Moon is… Read more »

SamlAdams
SamlAdams
Reply to  Chet Rollins
1 year ago

Funny we’ll be back to WWII in the Pacific. The still underreported story is US fleet boats, once they had torpedoes that worked effectively strangled the IJN and home islands. That is our last advantage over China. But for how long?

ArthurinCali
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

The military exercise Millennium Challenge, conducted in 2002, proved how low-tech arms and tactics can easily overcome superior technology. Relating to the US Navy aircraft carriers the biggest open secret known for at least the last two decades is that they are expensive floating targets. As you state, blocking 95% of incoming projectiles still leaves thet 5%. In the 2002 exercise ‘swarm’ tactics by a combination of aerial projectiles and small boats loaded with explosives took out the aircraft carrier…every single time. The general in charge of the adversary force was finally given a set of exercise limitations on his… Read more »

karl von hungus
karl von hungus
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

the thing is, aircraft carriers are obsolete – because manned planes are obsolete. once autonomous ships are advanced a bit (from where we are now) you can launch all kinds of weapons from right off the coast of a target country – without putting anyone in harm’s way.

gwood
gwood
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

Carriers will never be obsolete. They are the only ships big enough to contain decently sizes admiral’s suites.

Outdoorspro
Outdoorspro
Reply to  karl von hungus
1 year ago

I’m much more concerned about autonomous submarines and mines. If you can just loiter around, nice and silent, and wait for a ship to throw torpedoes at, you’re gonna be pretty hard to beat.

Bilejones
Member
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I’d be surprised, if the neocons get their Russia war, if there aren’t a couple of aircraft carriers on the ocean floor in the first week.

Evil Sandmich
Evil Sandmich
Reply to  Bilejones
1 year ago

The only thing possibly worse than sinking a carrier is letting it stay afloat. Running and operating a carrier is expensive enough, but then it’s dependent on it’s “group” for tiered defense which makes them a huge floating drain on the combatant’s finances.

Marko
Marko
1 year ago

Drones are cheap, artillery is cheap, hacking the FAA is very cheap…

DavidTheGnome
DavidTheGnome
Reply to  Marko
1 year ago

Yea that was my thinking also. All flights grounded, yikes.

DavidTheGnome
DavidTheGnome
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

A fair point. I believe the southwest thing was said to be due to system decrepitude and various managerial oversites that kind of built up over time. You would however get a lot of bang for your buck (I assume) trashing a countries passenger air service for an extended period of time, so I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s impossible to know I suppose, so I guess I’ll say I’m open.

Marko
Marko
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Wasn’t the Colonial Pipeline run on COBOL or something similarly old?

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

Andy Greenberg’s book ‘Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar’

https://www.amazon.com/Sandworm-Cyberwar-Kremlins-Dangerous-Hackers-ebook/dp/B07GD4MFW2/ref=sr_1_1?crid=HXVK5W220XGF&keywords=sandworm+a+new+era+of+cyberwar&qid=1673449744&s=books&sprefix=sandworm%2Cstripbooks%2C147&sr=1-1

documents the ongoing cyber warfare on the part of all advanced nations; including the Colonial pipeline takedown.

It makes a persuasive case that all of our infrastructure— our pipelines, our electric grid, our water and sewer plants— are extremely vulnerable to online attack. And it provides evidence that nation-state hackers have already been probing them.

LineInTheSand
LineInTheSand
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

It was great fun watching all those old COBOL coders become the hottest commodity just before Y2K. Something like watching Keith Richards play and still be the coolest guy alive. Maybe they’ll get one last hurrah?

Hun
Hun
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

A good programmer learns a new programming language in a few days. Hacking is pretty much the same most of the time. Human factor is what matters the most.

SlavaHAL9000
SlavaHAL9000
Reply to  thezman
1 year ago

I think the Russian teens can probably just look up the hacking instructions on ChatGPT, no?

The real Bill
The real Bill
Reply to  SlavaHAL9000
1 year ago

There are numerous hacker forums on the ‘dark net’ where hackers swap and/or sell the latest techniques.

NateG
NateG
1 year ago

Ancient cavemen fought other cavemen over territory, etc. Enter the neocon, who whispered in one caveman’s ear, ‘hey, that caveman called you a name, pick up that stick and hit him!’

Hun
Hun
Reply to  NateG
1 year ago

The neocon whispered: “You will not survive if you don’t let other cavemen in your territory.”

And then he continued whispering: “You need to invest everything you have into defending a holy territory in far away lands.”