Iranian War Drums

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Way back in the Bush II years, there was an open debate about whether to invade Iran after conquering Iraq. This was right around when the war against Iraq started, and some people noted that the neocons had ambitions beyond Iraq. For their part, the neocons were quite open about going from Baghdad to Tehran. After all, Iran was part of the “axis of evil” that included Iraq and North Korea. The Bush team made no bones about wanting to regime change all of them.

Of course, the plan to take out Iran was predicated on the plan to take down Saddam and “liberate” Iraq. Dick Cheney famously said that the Iraqi people would greet the American military as liberators. Bill Kristol in the run up to the war said, “This is going to be a two-month war, not an eight-year war.” In other words, the war plan with Iraq assumed the people would revolt against Saddam and the then the Iraqi army would either collapse, surrender or join the revolt against Saddam.

This was a critical part of the Iran concept. Once Iraq was defeated then secured as an America possession, it would be the launching pad for the Iran phase. That half million man American army in Iraq would secure bases for American air power and begin the process of rebuilding the Iraqi army. The new Iraqi army using modern Western weapons supplied by their new benefactors would then be part of the new coalition of the willing which would launch a war on Iran.

Obviously, the Iraq war was not what the neocons imagined. The people certainly had their complaints about Saddam, but they were not sitting around waiting for Uncle Sam to liberate them either. A significant portion dreamed of an Islamic state after the fall of Saddam, not a liberal democracy. The war became a guerilla war that dragged on until Team Obama finally put an end to it in his first term. The dreamed of war against Iran had to be tabled by the neocons.

The reason to care about any of this is there is a lot of loose talk about starting a war with Iran over the war between Hamas and Israel. Without any evidence at all, the neocons have laid the blame at the feet of Iran. In this new narrative, Iran controls Hamas, so Iran must have known about the attack in advance. The plan is to bait Israel into attacking Gaza, so Hezbollah can then attack from Lebanon. This could then lead to Hitler returning to lead the Arabs against Israel.

In response to these fantastical claims, the Biden administration has sent two carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean. There are reports of two other carrier groups headed to the Persian Gulf. These reports are based on rumors as the empire does not announce this stuff in advance. Word gets out among the crew of the ships and eventually makes its way to the internet. The only thing for certain is one carrier group is in the eastern Mediterranean right now as a show of force.

The deployment of two carrier groups would be an overreaction to the situation in Gaza, but four would be a clear signal of something. The reason this could be important is that part of those old war plans for Iran was the deployment of four carrier groups to the region, two in the Mediterranean and two in the Persian Gulf. They would be used in the first phase of a planned attack on Iran. Maybe it is a coincidence, but the regime likes to work in symbols, so probably not a coincidence.

There is a belief among some people that the neocons in the regime are looking at this Gaza situation as a chance to dust off the Iran war scheme. Rather than a warning to Iran, this is an effort to bait Iran into greenlighting Hezbollah, which would be the excuse to unleash an air assault on Iranian facilities. This would then warrant a full-on war with Iran with the demand for regime change. The one thing we know about neocons is they never abandon a project, so this makes some sense.

There are a few problems straight away. One is the old war plan back in the Bush II years said that it would require 1.6 million ground troops. Iran is a big place with lots of challenging geography and it has a big army. Despite decades of sanctions, it has highly sophisticated air defenses and a range of missiles. It is hard to know how its army would perform in a real war, but analysts think it would perform better than the Iraqi army due to better discipline and morale.

That was twenty years ago. Since then, Iran has become expert at the use of cheap but effective drone technology. They gave the Russians this technology last year, which has altered the battlespace in Ukraine. Hundreds of “flying Doritos” overwhelmed Ukrainian air defenses, exhausting their supply of surface-to-air missiles. There is a very good chance that Russia returned the favor by supplying Iran with improved air defense systems and maybe even advanced missile technology.

Then there is the fact that Iraq would not be an ally in this war. In fact, Iraq could side with Iran and attack American assets in northern Iraq and Syria. At the minimum, Iraq would stay out of the fight. There is no reason to think the Turks would agree to host American ground forces. There would be pressure on the Saudis and Kuwaitis to be the launching pad, but the Saudis hate the Biden people. In other words, a war with Iran would be a bloody complicated mess – at best.

Surely the Pentagon understands this, and they have communicated this to the neocons running regime policy. The only thing the military could do in a wider war in the region is attack Iranian facilities from air and sea. They cannot launch a ground invasion and they could not hope to topple the Iranian regime. There is a good chance that the Navy would lose some expensive assets. Iran has only grown stronger since this wargame resulted in a lost aircraft carrier.

This raises the question as to what the regime is doing in the Middle East. They lack the resources for the long dreamed off war with Iran. There has been no effort by the regime to build international support for a war. The usual suspects are on American television screaming for blood, but they do that every day. Lindsay Graham exists solely to go on television and call for war somewhere. In other words, it looks like this is a big show that is not intended to lead anywhere.

If the plan was to put on a big drama and draw all of the mass media attention to it, then it has been a great success. The Gaza story has not only blotted out other news, but it has also triggered convenient domestic stories, like the pro-Palestinian protests. The usual suspects are wasting everyone’s time with claims that those marches are the prelude to the return of everyone’s favorite villain. All of a sudden, there is no room for stories about Ukraine or the economy or anything else.

Alternatively, this could be another example of a regime that is both out of gas and low on intellectual capital being dragged along by events. Their Ukraine plan is a great example of how poorly they understand the world. They were sure Russia was just a gas station pretending to be a country. All it would take is some sanctions and some American weapons and regime change was guaranteed. They could be making the same errors with Iran as they made with Russia.

Alternatively, they could be thinking that the threat of war is just what is needed to get invited back into the game. The empire has been losing ground in the region for decades and is now down to a few barely allies. The Saudis are clearly thinking beyond the American empire. Israel is the last ally in the region and the one thing everyone else agrees upon in the region is that Israel is a bad neighbor. Maybe the threat of war is a reason to invite the Americans back into the discussion.

In the end, this will probably be looked upon as another event in the closing chapters of the Global American Empire. The Middle East is ready to move on from America and America is running out of resources to remain in the region. If this crisis ends in war, it will be another serious blow to the American war machine. If it results in peace it will come through the work of regional players with the help of Russia and China, thus further sidelining America in the region.

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196 thoughts on “Iranian War Drums

  1. What would be divine is if the prophecy of Revelations were true…

    And limited to the Mideast and Levant.
    Where it was intended.

    With Bibi playing the role as the Mosiach, the AntiChrist.

    What if the Prophecy were meant for Israel and Islam only?

    In the aftermath, quarantine Africa (after sending them back) and voíla!
    World Peace!

    • Tbh, I’m one of those who believe Revelation already happened. Rome was the Whore of Babylon, etc.

      Doesn’t mean I don’t think the world will end. If it had a beginning, it makes sense enough that it’ll have an end. In my day-to-day, I don’t think about it, don’t pretend to know when it will happen, or why, or if I’ll be around to witness it.

      Things just keep going on, until they don’t, if they don’t, idk. What is time, and what does history have to do with it? Maybe kind of Greek in that way lol.

    • If that does happen once Satan is in charge I’m applying for a job in ironic diabolic punishment engineering. After reading Dante’s Inferno I concluded that violent bouts of explosive spider diarrhea in humiliating social situations is being severely underutilized and I have some exciting new ideas in that line that would really punch up the quality of eternal torture.

  2. I must say it’s a daringly deft strategy.

    Jihadi vs Crusaders
    BRICS vs GAE
    Teeming South vs rich North
    SinoSoviet East vs Anglo West

    Get your enemies to kill each other…
    then offer to liason as Middlemen

  3. In the early 90s – yes ancient history – our community had a local independent grocery store that was purchased by an Iranian family. Sammy and Samia owned and operated the store. Sammy worked the meat counter and Samia worked the register and their children worked too. They were wonderful, friendly people who always had a smile and a greeting. And I remember Samia’s hummus – delicious. They eventually sold out – it was difficult to compete I’m sure. But I have fond memories of some really nice people.

    It’s always about people – the average citizen. The governments are the problem – garbage that stinks and needs to be removed.

    • I don’t mean to diminish your fond memories, but experiences like these tend to blind trusting whites to deeper tribal loyalties.

      Suppose Sammy and Samia told all their relatives back home about how great your town was and lots of them immigrated. Suddenly, there is a town vote on playing the call to mosque a number of times during the day. How would Sammy and Samia vote?

      If you say, “it’s always about people,” then you may be blindsided, like when most of the black conservatives voted for Obama.

      (I suspect that some of the commenters here who have fond feelings towards mestizos in their communities may face this before long. I saw it happen in coastal CA.)

      • Well, it must be borne in mind that there is a real difference between controlled, and measured immigration from nations more remote culturally, and the uncontrolled, and heedless torrent of illegals to which we are being subjected. I assuredly get your point concerning such immigrants, even when legal, in massive numbers becoming demanding of their culture and traditions elbowing their way in.

        Hmm, I am thinking of a certain group, while only comprising about 2% of the population overall, pulling that stunt, and basically advocating for the outlawing of the culture and traditions of the overwhelming majority. What is different here, eh?

  4. Even back when I was a bloody-minded war hawk in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, I thought war with Iran was dumb, dumb, dumb, as would anybody who has bothered to study the idea.

    The Iranians have a famously tough military. What they lack in equipment, they more than make up for in discipline, spirit and craftiness. During the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, they repeatedly fought very well in situations where they were badly outnumbered and outgunned. Iran was close to an international pariah back then; they’ve got a lot more allies now, and I’d imagine they’ve learned a few more tricks, too. Additionally, they’ve probably thought long and hard about all possible American-led invasion scenarios, and how best to counter them. Absent a World War II-style mobilization, there is no way any of this could go well for the U.S. Something like the Korean War would be a BEST-CASE scenario.

    Assuming anybody at the Pentagon is still doing their job, they undoubtedly know all of this and have explained it in detail to war-minded policymakers: “Remember the butcher’s bill from Iraq? Imagine something ten times worse. Now imagine having to go out there and explain and justify that to your constituents, who are already skeptical after the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles.”

    One hopes that self-interest among elected officials will be sufficient to keep this crazy idea off the table.

    • It won’t be for some. The End of History wasn’t as exciting as the End of the World the Cold War promised, and now that, too, is proving to be a dud. The End must come, until these psychos and their spirit of crucifixion and desolation are finally overcome.

  5. Elsewhere: “The 21st century is going to be the rise of the “rest of the world”, not the US.”

    The 19th and 20th Centuries were Jevvish Centuries, for sure;

    But it will the the 21st that is the penultimate Jevvish Century:

    The Perfected World, the Fall of the Aryans. The Kalergi Dream made real.

  6. All of these free-flowing LIES of the present serve to open up questions about the past.

    One glaring example is the 1967 Six Day War. Now the narrative has this pre-emptive strike of a war firmly on the side of the angels. You know, ‘we knew an attack was coming so we just HAD to … ‘ roar over the airfields of other countries and blast their aircraft to bits.

    Now, without reference to whether that narrative is 100%, gold-plated historical fact or not … is it worthwhile to consider that it is NOT. That instead, this attack, I mean pre-emptive strike, was NOTHING, I say nothing like another that was declared to “live in infamy” with soaring rhetoric?

    Was it a model for future wars, justified in similar, or even wilder claims? More soaring rhetoric? What makes the Six Day War ‘moral’, but Pearl Harbor, let alone Operation Barbarossa, immoral by their very acts of launching military action?

    Without taking a dog in the fight, although noting that such questioning may not be good for one’s banking health…

  7. To put my cards down: in the early 00s, I was on the dumber side, I bought the Karl Rove “Freedom Agenda” spiel. Syrian civil war disabused me of it eventually.

    At Tabletmag is a longish takedown of Jake Sullivan which is essentially flaying a New Yorker puff profile by a Newyorkermag left-liberal apparat-chick (Tablet obviously coming at this from an opposite faction). The Tablet guy invoked “Best and the Brightest,” a reference I remember scoffing at in the Bush years. The description of this feeb Sullivan takes me back to 2003 like a madeleine cookie. He is like a character from “Veep” in that he thinks he is a character from “The West Wing.” There is a Hannah Arendt reading contest. There is a moment of “BRO, YOU GOT MORE PASSPORT STAMPS THAN I DID” from some Jewish yuppie named “Philippe Reines” (I suppose Nigel Havisham and Hubert Von Marlborough weren’t available?). I am now convinced of the mediocrity-by-group-strategy thesis, then and now.

  8. A lot of people want a lot of things that require a lot of blood and treasure. Do they have it? If they do, do they have the stability they need to use it?

    All I know is that I live on the bottom of a racial caste-system as part of a nation without a country. Saturday night was a Hunter’s moon with Jupiter in frame. I spent a few hours outside watching an ever evolving cosmic art show. It was spectacularly beautiful.

    I felt a great sorrow for what is happening in my homeland and to my people. It was sobering to review the week’s events. I keep seeing everyone else, be they an ethnic group, or a country, first in line for the wealth that I help generate. Billionaires shutting down endowments for open criticism of their favorite nation’s actions while those same universities harbor and openly spread genocidal language and graduate armies of sinecures with the power to dispossess my people. My country has no border and it undergoes a full blown invasion with three former presidents piling on by sponsoring inbound invader flights all across the country. Meanwhile, my nation’s arms, spec ops forces, massive naval armadas sent to a region of the world far away to a nation that has repelled a minor threat and restored order and security to its border. An executive branch packed with dual citizens whose top of mind seems, when not bent on destroying my country and its people, to prefer having citizenship/allegiance to the country that is not mine.

    Where are my champions? Josh Hawley is in a safe district. Why isn’t he the strong American man he has been calling for? Is he just another feel good airport bookstore book salesman? Johson? Jordan? Cruz? DeSantis? Trump? Musk? Gates? Who of the powerful who is of my folk stands up and speaks for me?

    It was a sobering and depressing set of thoughts. I did my best to throw them aside and focus on some people I love and something funny that was said that made me laugh.

    It is safe to say that there is a whole lot that I don’t know and that I don’t understand the breadth and depth of the hows and whys of what I do know. I do know that America and Europe are powder kegs. A lot of fools filled with avarice have created an unprecedented mess. Our best and brightest are grubby little merchants off pursuing their self interest.

    To repeat, this thing is a powder keg waiting to blow. Stay safe. Enjoy the beautiful fall skies. Say a prayer for the wisdom and strength to do the quiet and diligent work needed to get our folk to triumphs and better days. Take care of your loved ones. Build something essential that is of service to our folk, and keep it out of the blast radius.

    God bless you all.

    • First, beautiful, thanks.

      “Billionaires shutting down endowments for open criticism of their favorite nation’s actions while those same universities harbor and openly spread genocidal language and graduate armies of sinecures with the power to dispossess my people.”

      This touches on what has been a long-time hobbyhorse of mine. Ackman and Co. have indeed done this, but to very little effect–shockingly little effect, actually. Their Tribe, along with the president of Harvard’s darker sect and all the others from the fringes, ultimately are subordinate to the Puritans, who seemingly have started their separation from the “Judeo” half of the Judeo-Puritan equation. The enemy is and always has been the Puritans. Marginalize and defeat them and their vicious pets have no power immediately. It is interesting they have decided to throw the Jews overboard at this point. My guess is they now consider support of Israel as untenable at this point and they sense their empire is slipping away. Their power likely dies with it.

      • The Puritans, you say?

        Why yes. They have said it, many times, themselves.

        They are the New Israel, the New Jews. They have won a new Covenant to rule in the God’s name.

        What God, dare we ask?
        What God?

        We are more resistant, yes, but we are far from immune to the call.

    • Agree with Dobson, that was beautiful, thanks. I get black pills like that too. And I too worry if we’re going to slide over the edge into nuclear combat. And I can’t imagine what that would be like. There’s nothing you and I can do about that. That gives some sense of freedom from responsibility.

      The other thing that worries me is that Europe and America are being changed in ways so that I don’t recognize what i knew as a kid. I lived as a kid in SoCal. California today, it’s a different country, literally with different people, from what I remember. We are being replaced, it’s an incredible thing to watch. And when they say it is good for us, that diversity is our strength,. Being replaced is good for us?? That gaslighting feels like the psychological equivalent of sugar-coated cyanide. We live in evil times.

      • I always pay close attention to RealityRules’ comments, which are, as a rule, both thoughtful, as well as well written.

        Respect to you, RR; your comments keep us mindful of why, and for what, we fight.

    • RealityRules: “To repeat, this thing is a powder keg waiting to blow.”

      It is mathematically impossible to possess too much @mmμn!tion.

      When in doubt, purchase even moar.

  9. It’s clear enough to me that official Washington fully intends to launch a war with Iran. They’ve lusted after such a war for a long time, and this is their last chance to do so—not only because because American power and prestige are in steep decline, so the US will not be stronger tomorrow than it is today; but also because the actors in the foreign policy and defense establishment are on the verge of aging out, and it’s now or never for them if they want the thrill of pressing the launch button to bomb Tehran.

    Maybe there’s still a way out of this, maybe decency, reason, and prayer can prevail. But for the people in charge, they are willing to send the rest of us back to the Stone Age if it means they can realize their long held dream to level Iran.

    • Khazarian grievances concerning Mesopotamia & Persia go back thousands of years.

      Their bloodlust was not satiated by poisoning the various Nebuchadnezzars [as documented in the book of Daniel].

  10. Agree with Zoar, below: ” A closed Strait of Hormuz would be an existential crisis for China.”

    Since all wars are ultimately resource wars- grab their food, women, land, whatever- the Mideast was and is to secure the GAE’s military fuel supply.

    And, to secure energy for the industrial “arsenal of democracy” that builds and supplies that military, and the currency system that funds it.

    It’s a good thing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve- for this primary purpose- is in such great shape, innit?

    Perhaps Pickle Rick is right.
    Like with the exhaustion of the British and French after Suez, maybe this whole larger plan was a long war of attrition…

    Against the Westphalian White world.
    Afghanistan, “grave of empires”, anyone?

    • Hey, it worked with Byzantium / Persia.

      Arab Islam is the knife, and the Hand that holds that knife nearly conquered Europe after the two empires had bankrupted themselves.

    • Trump floated the idea of selling off the oil in the SPR and either discontinuing the program or cutting most of the storage capacity. His rationale was we had it for decades and “never needed it” But the simple fact that it exists is why we don’t need it. As long as it is there and mostly filled means we’re relatively cushioned from an attack on oil supply disruptions and so the producers can’t mess with us. I was so mad at Trump for being so dumb. Not to mention oil was at recent historic lows at the time.

      The cost of maintaining the SPR shouldn’t be very much. It’s just pumped into old salt mines. It’s just a very cheap insurance policy.

      • But those old salt mines are in danger of a collapse that will render them useless unless they are kept filled.

    • If it’s really existential for China, then China will act militarily with overwhelming force…That would change everything…The US would be crazy to risk that, one Korean War was enough….

  11. Ukraine has done great in developing marine drones , both surface and subsurface. I’m sure Iran is aware of this.

    • XXXXXXXX the us has done great in developing marine drones and given them to ukraine to test…

      fixed that for ya

    • Most all the drones were British or American. The Ukraine doesn’t have the people to do much in the way of technology and industry now. They went from the best educated and skilled work force in the USSR to almost African levels of intelligence, skills and education. They sold off their industry, stole everything that wasn’t nailed down and let the rest fall into ruin.

      Their intelligence now is used to steal and grift. Since Maidan and even before their schools taught nothing but anti-Russian propaganda. It’s hard to have a developed society when your children are taught Ukrainian Aryan superiority every day. They don’t deserve to live near civilized people..

      • THE KHAZARIANS sold off the industry, stole everything that wasn’t nailed down and let the rest fall into ruin.

        The average man on the street in Ukraine is a goyische slave of the Khazarians [if he isn’t simply a corpse already], and any Ukrainian gal who is an HB6 or higher has long since been been trafficked off to Van Nuys to perform in Khazarian p0rnography.

  12. If the US activates the US Civil Reserve Air Fleet (US carriers enlisted/forced to move troops and material) to move large amounts of troops fast, then we’re in trouble.

    Haven’t caught a whiff of that yet. Something to watch for though.

  13. “Iran has only grown stronger since this wargame resulted in a lost aircraft carrier.”

    You have to wonder how accurate any of these “wargames” really are. On the one hand, losing ships or even battles via “wargames” is great for the Pentagon and the military industrial complex. These contrived wargame losses are used as justification for blowing more money on various new weapons.

    But OTOH, it’s not like these wargames are staffed with high ranking military officers who defected from the target country. Do they really have any idea whatsoever what the other country is likely to do in response to American aggression? Or, do they just assume the targeted country will react the same way they would react?

    To the extent they can make a good guess for some of the strategies and tactics of the target country, do they even understand the consequences of such moves? Like if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, is their assessment of what effect this would have accurate? My guess is probably not. They are the very same people who thought sanctions would destroy Russia and a hundred other failed predictions. They neither know the enemy or themselves..

    • re: Hormuz, if somebody closed off the strait that really wouldn’t and shouldn’t be an American problem. “Only” about 25% of the world’s oil flows through that strait anymore (it used to be more like 50) and almost none of it goes to America. It goes to China, Japan, and India. A closed Strait of Hormuz would be an existential crisis for China. For AINO the worst of it should be riding out the oil price shock, and whatever other 2nd and 3rd order effects.

      • The problem is everything is so intertwined now. The price spike plus shortages in Asia would probably have lots of consequences for America, both predictable and unpredictable.

      • A shortfall of 20 million bpd would rocket oil prices upward…$200/bl is not out of the question…And no, America is not energy independent with respect to oil, with a shortfall of roughly 7 million bpd…

    • I laughed at this, from the “wargame” link.

      White Van Riper goes full American Revolution guerilla, low against high, kicks azz.

      “Van Riper later said that Vice Admiral Marty Mayer altered the exercise’s purpose to reinforce existing doctrine and notions within the U.S. military rather than serving as a learning experience.”

      It’s like the neocons are automatons, really, can’t deviate from the programming.
      That, or possessed.

      • Alzaebo: “It’s like the neocons are automatons, really, can’t deviate from the programming. That, or possessed.”

        Or the neocohens have a secret agenda [as yet unbeknownst to us shkotzim] which is even moar cynically brutally sadistically nihilistic than we poor idiot shkotzim can imagine.

    • Oil prices are set on the margin. A closed Strait of Hormuz would raise oil prices and restrict oil supply to the point that indebted Western nations would not survive.

      • This is true. Plus, I don’t recall ever seeing the gap between Brent and WTI or Cushing above 10 bucks. It might have happened, but not that I noticed. I’m not sure if Asia has their own benchmark. Even if the gap were to widen a lot, there reaches a point where buying in the US and transporting to other markets would be profitable. Plus, I think there is paper trading that would spike our prices either way.

        That’s why I mentioned above that the combination of higher prices and shortages in Asia might have predictable and unpredictable consequences.

  14. “Alternatively, this could be another example of a regime that is both out of gas and low on intellectual capital being dragged along by events.” – This is how I see it. I don’t think D.C. has a unified plan. I think it has thousands of plans from the thousands of fiefdoms in that town, many of them overlapping. Put it together with a weak, jello brained President and you get a foreign policy picking plans day by day, unfortunately many of them are written by neocons. Even if Biden wasn’t brain damaged, he was never a smart man. He would have been incoherent anyway. He is to politics what Juan Williams is to journalism. The dumbest conceivable voice in that town.

    • Even if Biden were competent and had the minimal skillset required to serve as a puppet, there are just too many divisions for a unified voice on basically anything now. As much as the inevitable wars that result from them, multicultural societies all have a natural incoherence. You literally could have cabinet members marching in opposition to a policy being simultaneously announced by a chief executive now. This is the way it will be as long as things continue to remain intact.

      • “As much as the inevitable wars that result from them, multicultural societies all have a natural incoherence.”

        Nothing another couple of rounds of diversity training couldn’t cure…

        • Diversity runs counter to force projection though (with India being the oft-cited example), and indeed that was one of the below-the-fold goals of 20th century leftists in that the diversity would put an end to, what they saw, as the evil warmongering of the U.S. (which at the time meant keeping the USSR in check).

      • Under Trump, this was already happening; orders were being ignored, or the opposite was being done. So the blood is already in the water, and consequences were not forthcoming to those who thwarted orders from “The Top”, because any semblance of chain of command is increasingly doubtful.

    • It’s been said that war is the health of the state. I think what they really meant to say is war is the health of the empire.

      What we see now is the empire, in its decline, no longer possessing the means to wage the war that is its health. Gallivanting around the globe getting into wars of choice was the basic m.o. for the GAE for 80 years (at least). Nothing new going on today in that respect. What’s changed is its teeth are decaying and falling out. And somewhat like a gambler on a losing streak, the further down it gets, the bigger the long shots it bets on. (i.e. provoking hostilities with Russia in Europe rather than doing so in some far flung backwater). Like that gambler, it analyzes and analyzes, eventually convincing itself that this is the right bet.

      • I agree. What bothers me most about them is that they don’t understand that this machine has been going on inertia since the 1930’s and 40’s. The machine that FDR put in place is still in-tact and rumbling along, even as it smokes and has been making strange noises since 2002. These conceited freaks think that its their own brilliance that keeps it all together. Should the machine ever stall they wouldn’t understand in a thousand years how to restart it or what parts went bad, or that the bad parts haven’t been lathed since 1960. So they’ll hit every button and lever. My worry is that in the not too distant future one of those buttons will be a nuclear launch one. Don’t think for one minute that a regime that demonstrates its moral bankruptcy and sickness daily wouldn’t contemplate a first strike option. Crazier things have happened in history. Bizarre alignments that lead to catastrophe. Like a crazed, not bright, lunatic pajeet woman becoming president.

      • I insert here a link to the original (unfinished) essay by Randolph Bourne, The State, written at the height of the Great War in 1918, in the text of which is found the clause “war is the health of the State”. It is a very thought-provoking essay, and in many elements still rings true. In another commentary on this essay, it is maintained that it was unique in that its anti-war stance derives not from horrid body counts, or protests against war profiteering, but rather in the belief that the State, thus empowered, is the instrument of corruption of the Nation.

  15. I’d like to share this song with you guys if that’s okay. It has a Springsteen feel to it and the singe, Sam Fender, is probably a leftie like The Boss. But some leftie dissidents are right about some things. And even though the song is four years old it sounds like it’s about current events. It even specifically mentions the bombing of Gaza. Anyway, hope some of you like it

    • Although I’m still waiting for the police to show up and ask me what, exactly, am I doing here at Chez Z, I gots a plan.

      The Last Dinner Party is having a Halloween concert show in D.C. Right on my way.

      It’s a sapphic band, 5 chicks, so the audience is guaranteed to be 90% crazy babes in full Halloween regalia: corsets, bustiers, garters galore.
      Sexy as hell.

      Cuz if the balloon goes up, you wanta go out ravin’!

      Eat sleep rave repeat
      Eat sleep rave repeat

      • “It’s a sapphic band, 5 chicks, so the audience is guaranteed to be 90% crazy babes in full Halloween regalia: corsets, bustiers, garters galore.
        Sexy as hell.”

        75% of that audience would gouge out your eyes for existing because “Fuck the Patriarchy you cishet white male!”

        Fully 50% of that audience probably are rug munchers or strap on queens.

        And 100% of that audience are lefties.

        BUT! Dare to dream… LOL.

    • Am I the only one who notices the mudsharks and prevalence of not-Americans in that “American” video?

      That’s one of the dead giveaways of being a leftist video. It’s awful.

      They fail to see how their own ideology is part of the blackness and emptiness and hopelessness they feel in their hearts. How can you be anything but a nihilist with such visions for the world? The destruction is probably something they wish for deep down inside. The aesthetics alone show it offers nothing for the soul to yearn for or to aspire to be.

      • Hey sorry, i liked the song. And the realization that society is becoming culturally void is a bridge to dissident thinking. He doesn’t point you to something to aspire to, true. He just says something is wrong. He doesn’t know what needs to be done to fix that. We’re trying to figure it out here.

        • I wasn’t criticizing you or your liking of the song. I apologize if I came off as though I was. I was trying to point out the irony of being aware enough to sense the wrongness they experience, but not being able to point at at least one of the causes which they themselves appear to advocate.

          • No problem buddy. I was taken a little aback by what I first thought was hostility. I think your points are valid; the left created this and it’s a total mess.

            I do wonder, young white guys like the singer here, even if they think they’re left, if a lot of them won’t come over to our side. If he realizes society is void of meaning, he will be looking for meaning. When he realizes what’s been taken from him, maybe young men like him will join us in trying to take some of it back?? At least i hope so.

          • Cause and Effect are absolutely lost on lefties, this is not news. Hence their horrendous voting habits. Once they have to flee a location (see: LA, SanFran, etc.) they immediately set about doing the -exact- same thing in the new location slowly terraforming it into an unlivable shithole.

            NPCs cannot break their programming under any circumstance.

      • When there’s no white people left, will the Korean ladyboys be outshouting the black trannies and still blaming everything on trump long after he’s dead? Will Mexican and Venezuela illegals care about the Jews? Will China bomb Syria? Do Somali’s in Minnesota care if the Stevens Pass in Washington gets plowed in winter? Where’s my Grubhub?

  16. If everybody’s terrified of nukes and WW3 then a mere little genocide in Gaza doesn’t seem so bad does it?

    But what are all those ships doing there? It could be as meaningless and farcical as Bill Clinton parking an aircraft carrier off of Somalia in 1993.

    I’m just spitballing here. Biden going full Strauss Howe the other day wasn’t very encouraging was it

    • Whenever Biden is trotted out I always wonder “who was that supposed to help/hurt?”. It’s like the end of the W.Bush admin (“would someone just hide that guy??”), but all the time.

  17. Reaching for a historical analogy, AINO has about reached the point of the British and French in the region during the 1956 Suez Crisis. “America” is an exhausted empire after a generation of failed colonial ventures, as the British and French were after pouring endless effort into the Middle East for a similar length of time. Neither then nor now would or will the leadership or the bureaucracy admit that the days of being a Great Power are over, and that the “good old days” of beating the natives with superior weapons are over, never to return.

    • Agreed and that is the closest analogy. The possible difference is Suez was where the United States finally told France and Britain they needed to accept their diminished roles, and there doesn’t seem to be a singular power situated to return the favor this time.

  18. Like politics, all wars may be local. The war that matters may be the one between “domestic Americans” and their opponents who want to eliminate and recreate the U.S. in their image. Foreign policy may be an extension of this war.

    It’s possible that the military has no intention of taking orders from its visible civilian commanders, heeding, instead, the powerhouses of wealth and capital who may themselves realize that the future lies with the Belt and Road.

    Meanwhile, a fat and happy Shia Iran may be less a nuisance to Israel and its Sunni neighbors. Persians and Arabs are not always the best of friends. Would Palestine be better off with Israel in or out of existence? Install the so-called Palestinians in a former Israel and there goes Jordan and what’s left of Syria up in smoke with Egypt ready to blow the Palestinians to bits.

    By then news of Taiwan may be filling the airwaves.

    • Indeed. Maybe Israel really was an outpost to stabilize the Sykes-Picot Mideast.

      Palestine does get water, electric, medical, and sewage from Israel.

      The border is closed…with Egypt. Thousands of Palis cross into Israel to work at maquiladoras and as day labor each day.

      So, one can say Israel provides jobs. To terrorists.

      When Sharon gave Gaza away in 2005, the Gazans destroyed the extensive greenhouses that fed them for scrap metal. On the first night.

      Granted, it is a concentration camp, a cattle pen, calorie-restricted hay and stall; an economy like the movie “Elysium”.

      And Hamas, like Arafat, was created by Israel to *make* them terrorists, like SDS, United Slaves, Nation of Islam, & BLM were created by certain lawyers. Justification, ya know.

      (The PA & Fateh have mansions in Palestine, and a piece of most business like Egyptian generals do. They’re puppet dictators.)

      But what else ya gonna do?
      Harness their tendencies, if outnumbered. Leverage them.
      Nudge for the optics.

      Create a golem- such as a disease & obesity riddled GAE that can no longer fight other’s wars. (But we made a killing in the pharma & weight loss industry!)

      The one thing ruling classes understand is their bank account. They’ll sell their own mother, remember.

      What is funny is that Bibi is now talking up the 2007 “Greater Gaza Plan”: pushing Gaza into the Sinai…

      With transfer camps!

      You know, “those” kind of camps…for the involuntarily emigrated.
      (Here, for climate change refugees and the like, soon.)

      So I’m going to agree with SyrianGirl: this is a testbed for Agenda 21.

      Locking everyone into restricted “biodiversity zones”, aka 15-minute cites, like A,B,C, D subzones partitioning Gaza.

      Robot machine guns, checkpoint cattle chutes between sub-zones;
      Concrete slum towers, digi ID;
      Restricted calories, water, power, movement; etc.
      The Net Zero plan.

      Audacious gambits require audacious gambles. Or, maybe they’re locked on auto-trigger Jenga like WW1.

      Both, I’d say. Sunk cost makes things a bit…wobbly.

    • Like being on safari, watching the baboons and chimps go at it. Cameras at the ready! Don’t snap until you see the whites of their eyes!

  19. There is nothing that the average citizen can do about the worsening insanity emanating from DC, and that includes the rising threat of Biden accidentally starting WW3 and initiating a nuclear exchange. And Dan Bongino’s Hail Mary pass of voting harder a year from now is not going to save the day, even if Trump gets elected rather than assassinated by the Neocons. But there is a better way to utilize one’s energy in the coming days as opposed to handwringing over events out of one’s control.

    The collapse is coming and if you haven’t prepared for it, now would be a good time to start. Surviving the interregnum should be your first priority, and when the fog of chaos arrives, you should have a solely mental plan of what to do next. Think outside the box and be creative. Use what you know and keep it simple, secret, solo, and spontaneous. Our problem is ours to solve. We are many and the pathogens are relatively few. Repel the lice.

  20. War with Iran has more than a 90% chance of being a total disaster, I can’t see much upside for the US/Israel. bombing Iran would give us $200 oil maybe more, it would wreck the World economy, but not the Russian economy

    Its totally crazy, and yet I think it might happen

    • I’m willing to ante up for higher gas if it means regime change in the imperial capital. Not that it necessarily will, of course.

    • True. All of that is not even taking into account the possibility of Russia and/or China entering the war. The neocons seem to think that bombing Iran will draw no response from Russia. Many, like Col. Macgregor think that is dead wrong.

      The minimum an attack on Iran will do is unite the Arab states at least for a while. I heard that the U.S. has changed its’ plans to have the Eisenhower Carrier Group stationed in the Red Sea. I would imagine that Saudi Arabia “advised” against that idea.

  21. Remember all the concern about the “Arab Street” during the destructive Bush years? That didn’t ever really play out, but there is a new Arab Street, and it is found in London, Manhattan, Paris, Berlin and other large along with smaller places. Americans and Canadians have joined their European and immivader brothers and sisters in wearing the keffiyeh. The chickens have come home to roost for the Uniparty’s open border policy, and the first domino to fall will be unchecked support for Israel, which has become unsustainable long term. I’m increasingly of the opinion that the division over Israel finally will erupt into one of many pending civil upheavals that will weaken Western governments, too, and speed along the fragmentation and dissolution of their countries.

    There seems to be a sharp division between pro-Israel and pro-Iranian factions in the GAE. The former is a legacy of the old Uniparty/Empire Forever, the latter is one of the few things that unites the Coalition of the Fringes these days. I seriously doubt there is any single agreement or plan on how to respond and like so much these days, chaos, contradiction and disunity reign.

    It is hard to be welcomed as a liberator when your own street at home wants to be liberated by any number of candidates.

    • Pretty soon if not already, war in the Middle East means civil war at home or rather fighting the invaders already imported.

        • “We will invite all our enemies in. That way we won’t have to travel to fight them. And that is much better for the climate too”

          Brandon Tzu

    • What’s interesting is that the marches in London and Berlin have not had the violence of the 2020 BLM marches in the US.

      Even the riots in France earlier this year did not have that apocalyptic theme that was such a constant with the American demonstrations.

  22. Looks like the US is being set up to lose any war that they get involved in.

    Bear that in mind, beltway morons.

    • yes, and that was the plan all along . for international takeover , you don’t want a capable us military that might get the idea that our new international overlords should be opposed.

  23. “There has been no effort by the regime to build international support for a war.”

    Probably because it’s not possible. The US regime has few allies left and hardly any in the region. I doubt anyone outside the GAE is going to invest resources and credibility in another half-assed US adventure that hasn’t been thought through, has no clear and realisable objectives and just leads to another bog. These neocon armchair warriors are living in cloud-cuckoo land and have been instrumental in the precipitous decline of US reach and prestige.

    One thing you didn’t mention is that behind Iran lie Russia and China. Though it’s not clear to what extent they will back Iran. But for sure they will not sit idly by. And for sure they see this as part of an unfolding global war, as probably do the blockheads in the Beltway.

    • Why wouldn’t Russia and China use Iran as a proxy against the US?

      They’d be fools not to, and Iran would likely be far more effective than the clowns in Ukraine.

    • Russia and China know that they are next on the menu after Iran. We know they know. They know we know they know.

      World war is inevitable.

      • “World war is inevitable.”

        It’s already here. Ukraine and Gaza are the opening salvos. The situation is similar to “The Guns of August” (1914). The reason the Chinese and Russians are treading so carefully is they know their history. The neocons apparently don’t.

        • Can the globalists offer up some tasty tribute, cut a deal?

          Say, booming war economies, discount trade treaties, reduced population pressures.

          More domestic power! Own the factories, farms, warehouses, apartment blocs, and ports!

          Plunder and lebensraum, in a pacified White West.

          A stable new order.
          A new Balance.
          White chicks!

          A militant, stratified Brave New World at home, in Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia.

        • WW3 was declared when, early in Trump’s presidency, in defiance of his themes if not his orders (but probably also his orders), America joined a British-led (Operation CABRIT?) staged “defensive” invasion of Russia via NATO’s “Enhanced Forward Presence” (defensive!).

          Understand that Hillary and the neocons and the whole of “deep” globohomo TRULY BELIEVE the story they made up, that Putin made Trump president. The 2017 invasion exercise/demonstration was their message to Putin that though his conspiracy to install Trump was successful—it was for nought! ha ha!

          They really are insane.

    • Biden wanted to meet with the Palestinian Authority, Egyptians, Jordanians and Saudis when he went over to Israel a couple of weeks ago. He got stiffed by each leader in turn.

      If anyone in DC had a functioning cerebellum that would be terrifying to the regime but nah.

  24. I feel bad for the UAW guys who had their strike blown up in the news by hamas. But only because my welder neighbor is stuck home and getting abused by his baby mama.

    • tell him to knock her up abgain, she will be too tied down with the extra youngin’ to give him any grief.

  25. That line about the Bourbons comes to mind about forgetting nothing and learning nothing.

    I find it hard to believe they want a full-scale regional war though. A war against Iran would require the draft and judging what we’ve seen on the college campuses with respect to Gaza, I think the opposition to it would dwarf Vietnam’s.

    I think this is more about fortifying next year’s election than actually kicking off a war. But again, they’ve learned nothing.

    • Right, but a key difference between now and then is that limiting a draft to non-college, working class men would not end the rioting as happened with Vietnam. There are too may divisions for any coherence now. There are lots of dusky vibrants among the “Western” protestors. This is the Regime’s ultimate self-inflicted wound and it will prove fatal.

  26. > Dick Cheney famously said that the Iraqi people would greet the American military as liberators. Bill Kristol in the run up to the war said, “This is going to be a two-month war, not an eight-year war.”

    The neocons were largely right here. Iraq got completely decimated and a crowd of people joyfully toppled Saddam’s statue. Even democracy seemed to work for a few years as the people seemed to be enthusiastic about this new way of doing things.

    The realities of tribalism and culture soon reared their heads though, and it ends up you can’t just create a government in the abstract without an understanding of the people it is supposed to govern. If they would have just installed a strongman puppet with and paid off the other powerbrokers to play ball it would have been far cheaper and effective.

    • Most of what we saw on TV regarding the liberation was performative propaganda. They highlighted people who personally persecuted by Saddam’s regime. Read Ahmed Chalabi’s wikipedia page to see what stupid dupes the intelligence community was when it came to setting up the new government. He was their hand chosen crook and when it came time to vote he got less than the Green Party typically does here.

      • I remember Ahmed Chalabi. He was the grifter, after it fell apart, selling “We were heroes in error.” I have a beautiful dream: a forest of gallows decorated with our contemporary Heroes in Error.

    • It would have been even cheaper and more effective to have not gone into Iraq in the first place. The whole insurgency arose very quickly after our invasion. By the summer of 2003 it had kicked off. There were the purple fingers that the neocons touted as democracy in action but that didn’t stop AQI from attacking the US there.

    • Democracy only functions reasonably well with a high level of human capital. Iraq does not possess it. But that’s inegalitarian thinking, which is why the Beltway Blockheads never considered it.

  27. Trudeau is banning crosses (and Stars of David) at this year’s official Remembrance Day ceremonies, as well as prayers.

    I’m not risking my life for a regime that hates me and will probably disrespect my memory one day. Even if the West was still badass I still wouldn’t fight Neocon wars, because they’re dumb.

    The Western regimes are infinitely more damaging to our lives and well-being at the moment than a far away Ayatollah Khamenei ranting about “Zionists” all day on Twitter. Of course that may change one day like anything but there is no confusion about who really hates us at the moment.

    • Our worst enemies are the local Globohomo regimes, that is very clear. And yet the sheep don’t get that. How can the majority be so blind??

      • Given the propaganda and lies, are we sure the majority is so blind? Maybe just lying to get along (we pretend to work, they pretend to pay us), until a real choice is forced (e.g. a draft). The very fact that a draft is a no starter even with this level of propaganda leads me to believe the majority is not so blind.

        • Hope you’re right but I just hear a lot of normie talk that assumes we’re living in normal rule of law democracies in real life, both in Europe where I live and from people stateside. A lot of people still seem to assume the system has their best interest at heart and works according to the (traditional meaning of) rule of law. And it isn’t so. “Vote harder” is clearly futile. But do most understand that? My impression is no

          • I’m sure most of the boomers who won’t get drafted are on board with a draft. I don’t believe very many of the draft age people are.

            Likewise with faith in the system. Although the youth’s loss of faith is for very different reasons from that of your typical dissident, it is still very real.

        • Well, I think it’s safe to say that the astigmatism has cleared up a bit over the last 10 years, but the vision is still far from 20/20.

  28. Not only is the GAE rapidly losing influence and respect in the World, they have managed alienate the White male demographic such as myself that is the sole reason for the country’s success. How do they hope to successfully fight WW III without the support of most of us?

    • They think illegal Mexicans are willing to be their cannon fodder while the six-star Generals direct everything from the comfort of Washington.

      • But who is going to staff and run all the artillery and drone factories?

        All the new engineers from Mauritania?

      • A new classification, the 18-star general, has been created especially for negro and perv officers in the GAE’s military. Somewhere the shade of Alexander the Great is gnashing his choppers with envy.

  29. Do the Neocons still believe everyone around the world wants to live in an American style “democracy?” That was the theme of Bush’s 2nd inauguration speech and even at the time it seemed unlikely they could truly believe that. Now it is a stretch for even the most committed zealot as it has obviously been proven false. Do they think people just need to be convinced of it?

    • That trope of “liberal democracy” has worn a bit thin. Most people now understand that “liberal democracy” means plutocracy, effectively control by Jewish billionaires, with the threadbare veneer and charade of elections and “civil rights.” And that when push comes to shove, the civil rights are flushed down the toilet. This understanding has becoming particularly clear during the last three years when a ringwraith was installed as president of the USA

    • Of all the things that I say that trouble my Trump loving brother, one of the most unwelcome is that the Iranian revolution in the late 1970s was probably their version of the MAGA movement. He very much wants to believe that the Iranians will rise up and overthrow the mullahs and that the Palestinians will overthrow Hamas. He wants to believe what Bush 2 said, that “the desire for freedom is inscribed in every human heart.”

      I tell him that I don’t know, but that people around the world may not want to be like us.

  30. “In other words, the war plan with Iraq assumed the people would revolt against Saddam and the then the Iraqi army would either collapse, surrender or join the revolt against Saddam….”

    Back in the day I was all in on the neocon wars. The only anti-war guy I respected was Stormin’ Norman Schwartzkoff. He was against the subsequent Gulf Wars but of course – the media was very careful not to let him state his reasons or allow them into the mainstream.

    Perhaps it was just the Globohomo Narrative machine… but it WAS an excellent exercise in optics. I remember seeing them show pics and vid clips of Iran from the 70’s – women were dressed much the same as they do here. They smoked and drank and then the rag heads took over, and we saw sullen moslem women dressed in garbage bags, with only their eyes visible – and they got flogged by filthy dune coons who walked into villages and shot the place to pieces and left them in ruins. Back in the day it was powerful messaging. The guys responsible were BAD – and we were obligated to kill them without a second thought. Today I look at our turd brained women and lord… I wonder if those goat humping sandal slappers didn’t know something we out west didn’t – HAR HAR HAR!!!

    That has become my tip off to Globohomo *uckery: when they start setting up that narrative where “These people are BAD and need to be killed” the first thing out of my face is, “What is their story? What is THEIR side in all this?” What is their history? What do they want for themselves? Why do they want it? Nobody does this in the media anymore. Or in the halls of power. I see that alot with the Establishment nowadays. They can’t listen because they are too busy talking. There is no time for reasoned discussion or debate – we have to fight NOW!!! Because reasons!!! And if you try to slow down and talk about those reasons, well – shuddup your RACIST! You anti-semite!!! You TRAITOR!!!

    I’m glad there are finally people refusing to be silenced and shamed by the spin doctors and their mouth breathing zombies.

    • This is why I don’t even believe the propaganda about North Korea anymore. They are probably cruel and repressive, but the cartoon villain nature of the reporting convinces me more I’m being propagandized than I should hate these people from across the globe.

    • LMAO, this (like the millennials say)

      Honestly I don’t see the issue with their women being wrapped in black sheets. It is kind of not my problem. I think they tried this last year with some horror porn about women being abused in Iran and know buddy cared. I did not even see a FB post about it (I know FB is fake and gey, but what are you gonna do). I think Grrl power will be enough to liberate Iran, besides they can send the tranny, fat-ladies army there. I am pretty sure they’ll kick ass. They need no men, I understand.

      I am in the minority here appreciating the HBO series the young pope. If you appreciate church history I’d suggest it. The reason I bring it up is that in the show the very conservative Pope (an impossibility today) agrees to give an inaugural speech only after some weeks after being elected. And the main idea of the speech is to deride the idea of freedom/liberty. And they even cut to the women closer to him (one advisor and one mentor) making an unhappy face the moment he identifies freedom with moral slavery/decadence.

      If I had watched the show only a few years before I would think the show was mocking ultra-conservatives. But after seeing the consequences of “fweedom” I can see why you can criticize the idea. Freedom has been the excuse to stop having common sense moral standards and brainwash the population into an inversion of values. So I can understand why the Iranians may be better with their non-liberal regime.

      • Good show, The Young Pope. Not so much the follow-up series. Can you imagine a truly conservative/orthodox Catholic as Pope today? I did love that character.

  31. The US does not really want a war with Iran. Israel really wants a US war with Iran. It will be interesting to see the steps they and their allies in the us take to precipitate it

    • This, I think. There is tremendous division, it seems, within the “Biden” Administration and an apparent split between an Iranian faction and an Israeli faction, basically the Coalition of the Fringes vs. the old regime Uniparty. One of the few issues that unites the Fringes is opposition to Israel. No matter how Fake and Gay, this is an election year and any division between these groups means trouble for “Biden.”

      • Problem is they’ve hitched their wagon to Biden (to oppose Orange Man Bad) and can’t unhitch it. You see that in The Guardian: they desperately want to criticize Biden over Gaza, but cannot/dare not.

  32. The GAE has not significantly increased its military production in response to Ukraine.

    Because the usual suspects have financialized the GAE economy, it is no longer possible to increase military production:

    Note that this leaves out the rapidly shrinking pool of quality human capital for any GAE rearmament effort.

    I wish the usual suspects good luck with their Iranian war.

    • Who would have thought it would be hard to transition from an economy focused on digital money to one that makes physical things like shells and missiles overnight?? How is it that the system people are surprised by things any idiot understands??

      • Beats me.

        The link works fine on Firefox with uBlock Origin running under Windows or Android.

  33. One thing I do know, I’d really hate to be on a US Navy ship (especially a big target like a carrier) in the Persian Gulf if this goes hot. Those cruisers and destroyers have a finite number of missiles for defense. Considering the number of missiles, rockets and drones thrown so far in Israel and Ukraine, I figure they’d use up their full batteries pretty quickly. After that, they’re just thin-skinned radar stations. In a small area like the PG, they won’t be hard to find.

    • Some of the Burkes there are equipped with lasers cable of defeating subsonic anti-shipping missiles and drone swarms. Their 5-inch guns have some capabilty against those threats, too. All have a trusty R2D2 CIWS as well. Then they flee and can employ spook 32s, Nulka, inflatable decoys and rapid blooming chaff and flares. Their Seahawks can be used as last-ditch sacrificial decoys if it came down to that.

      Bear in mind their capable ESSMs are quad-packed in a single VLS tube. So more missiles than tubes.

      It would require a large onslaught to hit a Burke or any ships she is screening. Iran can do it, but they’ll deplete their own stocks.

      • I’ll defer to your info, which seems to be more current than mine. On the other hand, when those ships finally do run out of ammo, their ability to quickly re-arm is limited at best. My understanding is that missile unreps have been done away with. CIWS is pretty cool, but by that time, the threat is entirely too close.

      • “It would require a large onslaught to hit a Burke or any ships she is screening. Iran can do it, but they’ll deplete their own stocks.”

        This, of course, assumes that the ships wouldn’t be destroyed false-flag style through the machinations of “our greatest ally” and the neocons in our own government. Who benefits if one of these ships get blown up?

        It’s not America. And it’s not Iran. But there IS a certain country that would benefit greatly if “Iran” blew up a ship.

        Heck, these days, it’s not hard to imagine a ship pre-wired to blow. After all, flag-draped coffins make for great propaganda.

        Unfortunately for our so-called leaders and media puppets, we’re a long way past the trusting days of 911. They’ve blown their own credibility with fortified elections, locking up grannies in MAGA hats, glorifying “peaceful” protests, vilifying white people, and calling you a bigot if you don’t want that hairy dude showering with your daughter.

        Who wants to fight for such a country? Nobody.

      • They could send enough cheap decoys to exhaust the vessel’s ammo.

        Laser beams can only be brought to bear on a single target at a time, and their motorized mounts can only swivel so fast.

      • All true no doubt, keep in mind that Iran also has a Kilo class submarine, very hard to find when it’s running on electric power

    • NATO helped the Ukrainians sink the Russians largest ship on the Black Sea, mainly by giving its location. the Russians would just love to help Iran in the same way

  34. Any fact is that the Pentagon has war plans they pull out of filing cabinets. They run on autopilot just like every other bureaucracy. I’d bet the documents are actually from 2002. A lieutenant just changes the dates and shift some words around. Or maybe the excel sheet just uses the current date formula.

  35. With regards to the situation that is developing in the middle east, I am curious if Retired U.S Army Colonel, Douglas Macgregor is a viable source of analysis on what is happening.

    Or is he just another media prop for the conservative right?

      • He underestimated the compliance of the US tax payer for subsidizing the war. Ukraine would have been a distant memory without our almost infinite support. And in fairness, the other side has predicted an imminent Ukraine victory about 27 times now.

    • Been doomscrolling Ukraine and now Israel with the likes of MacGregor, Napalitano’s internet show, Ritter, the Duran, etc.

      Now it’s endless “carriers to the gulf”, “terrorist cell activation in the US imminent!”, “ships will sink, nukes will fly!”.

      Conclusion, doom and gloom gets likes and clicks.

      Plenty of politicians need more boob bait for the bubbas. There may be state rallies in places like Turkey or endless votes on ever more expenditures of taxpayer money in the US, but my gut feeling is:

      Sound and thunder, signifying nothing. Everyone not-so-secretly hates the “Palestinians”. Nobody is going to WWIII over those a-holes, and the Israelis have a blank check to commit genocide.

      But that’s boring, so the fear merchants are going to keep peddling WWIII.

      (Didn’t feel this way about Ukraine. The Russians are serious..they do what they say. The US talks endlessly of “red lines”, then does other projects)
      Time will tell.

      • Nobody is going to WWIII over those a-holes

        That may be true, but going to WW III over them is just a fig leaf.

      • He does push the doom and gloom, but I think he does it not so much because he thinks it is certain to happen (maybe for clicks), but in some windmill tilting misplaced hope that someone in power might actually think of potential consequences. His main shticks on his presentations I have seen are (1) we are not capable of conducting a real war, and (2) no one (at a decision making level) is really thinking through this rationally. On those two main points, he seems correct. But then, anyone with two brain cells can see that (unfortunately brain cells seem in low supply in DC).

        • He is right about the Ukraine, it is and has been doomed. But it was caused by the neos and Ukrainian leadership. They are and have been beated for a long time now. At this point Russia is just beating them to a pulp. More than a million Ukrainians have died or been disabled, the infrastructure and industry has been destroyed, agriculture will be limited for years because of mines and unexploded warheads and so many people have left the country.

          At this point they are just continuing fighting to prolong the grift. They’re like a poisonous snake beheaded but still trying to bite.

    • I kinda like the guy but it’s true he’s been pronouncing the doom of the Ukraine for a long time now.

      I think one problem is that drones are clearly becoming a battlefield dominating weapons system. But they are both so varied, from giant predators that fly around the globe to small things little bigger than toys with cameras and bombs on. And they are so new. So no one really knows how best to use them yet. Majors and colonels working on tactical and operational doctrine are still trying to figure out how best to use them.

      • True – kind of reminds me of Barcelona and Spanish National team with their “tikki-taka” style of play. When it first came out, it was hard to defend against and allowed them to dominate. Once it was figured out, it became easier to handle. Same thing when the Oilers came out with some hot shot offensive tactics (forgot what it was called, Run and Shoot?). At first, caught defenses off-guard, but after a while they adjusted.

        • It also took a long time to figure out how best to use tanks and other game changers. Nobody has tried it before so it’s a trial and error thing, tuition paid in blood

        • Offensive innovations, like tiki-taka, almost always have a short shelf life. Sound defensive systems are a tougher nut to crack because of the skill and tenacity required to overcome them. The neutral zone trap in hockey cast a pall over the NHL for many years and eventually the league had to tinker with the rulebook to restore offense to the game. The NBA similarly banned zone defenses for decades.

          Of course the best defense of all for the GAE would be to have its ships close to port, where they’d be in little danger of every running into trouble.

      • I was about to say similar. He gets ahead of skis on most things. Yeah, the Ukrainian army will eventually collapse if things do not change, but armies hold on longer than they should. Yeah, the dollar will lose its status eventually, but the British Pound held on far longer than it should too.

        • Why the US is not broke beats me. I’m no expert on macro economics but it seems to me it should be broke according to rational economics

          • The word “rational” should be used only with extreme hesitancy in conjunction with AINO.

          • It’s mostly because the dollar is the reserve currency. The world financial/trade system needs dollars to function, so they need to hold dollar assets to have access to dollars when needed. The easiest and most liquid dollar asset is treasury bonds and bills, so they buy our debt.

            They also buy other assets in the US, but, again, bonds are – by far – the most liquid. T-bills are also foundational collateral for the global financial system, so that also creates demand.

            So long as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the others run big trade surpluses, they’re going to need a way to hold dollars. Sure, they’re trying to do some trade in other currencies but that’s very limited and even that small amount is causing problems. Russia doesn’t know what to do with all of the Indian currency that it has from selling oil to India so it’s demanding that India use Euros or even dollars to pay for the oil.

            Until another country/currency creates a large, liquid bond market that people trust, there’s no alternative to the dollar, so a good amount of our debt will be bought.

            Now, don’t get me wrong, our govt finances are a disaster and will eventually cause the dollar to blow up, but until you see other countries’ businesses, investors and banks move away from treasuries, we’ll be able to keep the plates spinning.

            In fact, I’d suspect that we’ll see the whole Eurodollar system implode with nothing to replace it rather than another currency slowly takes over as the dollar did to the pound.

            Fun times ahead – but it could be a long time before anything on the ground actually happens.

          • Citizen, thanks for the explanation. I guess the thing I don’t get is why the Russians and Chinese and others trust the US more than each other. If that trust, that DC is doing everything to destroy, ever disappears, America is stripped naked as far as I can tell.

            Your strategic position based on your enemy’s trust in you?? That makes zero sense

          • Moran,

            Well, they don’t trust us, but there’s not much that they can do about it. Eight-seven percent of trade is done in dollars. Outside of a fairly small number of trade deals, commodities are sold in dollars.

            Russia’s problems with the Indian rupee is a good example. Russia has been selling India oil and accepting rupees. Now, Russia has a giant pile of rupees. What’s it going to do with them? How much stuff does Russia need from India? Not much.

            Also, India’s govt bond market is a joke and investing in India is hard, so it’s not like Russia can invest the rupees in Indian bonds, stocks or real estate. I mean, who trusts the Indian stock or real estate market.

            The US govt may not be trustworthy but our legal system and property rights are still among the best in the world, certainly light years ahead of India or China or Russia.

            Remember, if you get another country’s currency, you have to do something with the money. Either you 1) buy their goods or services with it (not an option for Russia with India and that’s true for most of the BRICs); 2) invest the currency in the country’s assets (not an option in countries with no real govt bond markets, capital controls and no property rights); or 3) convert the currency into dollars which allows you to do both 1 and 2.

            The BRICs have no alternative to the dollar. They have no bond markets, no property rights and not enough goods/services to soak up their currencies (they all run trade surpluses after all).

            Also, none of these countries want to stop running trade surpluses. China can’t stop; it doesn’t have enough domestic demand. It needs the jobs created by the trade surplus.

            Well, if you’re going to run trade surpluses, you’re going to have dollars, so you need to invest those dollars and treasuries are as good a place as any.

            Now, China has tried to reduce its treasuries, but they’re doing something with those dollars that they get from their trade surplus. Sure, they use some to buy and store commodities, some for gold, some to make loans for the Belt and Road, but they still have a lot of dollars leftover. They have to go somewhere.

            Finally, remember, trade is done between companies, not countries. If private companies want to trade in dollars, it’s hard to stop them. Also remember that there’s almost as much dollar-denominated debt outside the US and within it. All those debtors need dollars to pay off their loans. That alone would keep the dollar popular for a very long time.

            Think of the dollar like you think of the English language. Everyone speaks English, and since everyone speaks English, everyone is invested in keeping English as the world language. No one wants to learn a new language because it’s a lot of work and everyone already speaks English, so English stays the world language. There’s too much of a network effect and sunk costs to change that. Same with the dollar.

        • Z –

          Have a longtime Veteran (Vietnam ‘69-‘70) friend who staffs former military officers with corporations on a job-to-job basis (I know, I know, & so does he) but I talk with him on a weekly basis capping the geopolitical situation. He spoke with a recent client (a former admiral) who stated the exact opposite of what MacGregor has been declaring; rather than Ukraine losing it’s Russia losing in a big way (losing upwards of some 700,000 men) & pulling 1950’s-era tanks out of mothballs.

          Now my jaw hit the floor; somebody’s wrong but who is it? The two views are so diametrically opposite that someone is in error on a Civil War Alan Pinkerton-level (this is the guy who kept reporting that the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia was 3 to 5x it’s actual size).

          I guess time will reveal the actual truth.

          • That admiral is insane. There is no way the Russia could suffer anywhere near that number. They started with 100K soldiers and brought in another 300K last summer. This is not data anyone disputes, so that admiral must think Russian soldiers are dying multiple times.

            The truth is, most military people know nothing outside their narrow specialty. A retired admiral knows less than most.

            Here is a CIA funded source based in the Baltics that uses quantitative met5hods to track Russian casualties. They have the number at 35K. There are no such sources for Ukraine, but leaks suggest over 200K, which matches the correlation of forces. There is a grim math to this sort of war. If you have ten times the artillery as the other side, you inflict ten times the casualties. Ukraine is outgunned 10-to-1 right now.

          • Odd this number of Russian casualties.

            Just last night, I saw a YouTube video of a Kiev “news” podcast/broadcast proclaiming something close to that number–and further stating that Russian casualties have lately been about 1k per day in latest fighting, which of course the valiant Ukrainians have been “winning” as their latest offensive pushes through the Russian lines.

            This video being typical of the Ukrainian propaganda broadcasts, I paid little attention and blocked the channel (one of dozens so far). Perhaps our admiral gets his sources of info from such?

            In any event, Z-man referenced a source a year or so ago that he uses and I’ve switched to. The analyst is foreign based and keeps a very detailed account on activity in the field.

            Check out the “Military Summary” channel:


            YouTube seems heavily biased. If you simply search for “Ukrainian war reports”, you’ll get mostly reports of Ukrainian victory in the field and Russian defeat imminent.

          • The visual evidence doesn’t lie. The Ukraine is being taken apart and depopulated. They cannot win and it’s only greed and stuborness keeping them in the fight now.

          • Ja, a retired admiral talking out his ass on land warfare in a climate of massive changes in technologies, and still working on the ideas of manuever war with massed infantry/armor? No, I don’t think so.

          • What’s not encouraging is that so many Pentagon/upper level military types are drinking some kind of weird kool-aid vis-a-vis the entire Ukraine situation. How could they get it so wrong? All these “intelligence agencies” are feeding them this stuff.

            This isn’t the first time I’ve heard this kind of stuff from my Veteran friend. He talks with these former officers all the time & it seems to be the accepted meme.

            It boggles the mind.

  36. War against Iran seems insane. But regrettably that is no reason it couldn’t happen. I’m reminded of that old line from The Hunt for Red October, “This is going to get out of control. It’ll get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it”.

  37. This is what a power vacuum looks like. I use the metaphor of the Do Long Bridge, from Apocalypse Now, to make sense (insofar as that’s possible) of the goings-on in the Imperial Capital. If y’all don’t remember that surreal scene, Captain Willard shows up at this brightly lit installation and asks for the CO. The first kid he asks looks at his collar tabs and says “I thought you were the CO!” Willard is able to get everything he wants from the quartermaster underneath — indeed the quartermaster offers him all kinds of stuff off-books — and the same thing is happening above. Each little group in each little bunker is busy doing its own thing, without reference to anything else that’s going on. It’s not even clear if the American troops are supposed to be defending the bridge, or attacking it.

    So it goes in Washington. The Kagan Kult is doing its own thing, without reference to the Pentagon, even though their plans absolutely depend on the Pentagon. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is doing its thing without reference to the contractors who actually build the equipment they don’t currently have. The State Department — the part that isn’t run by the Kagan Kult — is off doing something different; the various factions of the Uniparty are using it to play politics, and none of them seems to realize that by forcing a trial of strength among the various members of the Coalition of the Fringes, they’ve shown a) exactly who outranks all other groups, and b) that the “group that outranks all others” is in fact tiny, and getting smaller and much more powerless by the day.

    Finally Capt. Willard returns to the boat and tells the crew to shove off. “Did you find the CO?” Chef asks. Willard replies, “There ain’t no fuckin’ CO,” and off they go, doing their own thing without reference to anyone else. Willard’s reply needs to feature prominently on AINO’s tombstone.

    • Yes, exactly. It is Uniparty/Empire Forever! vs. Coalition of the Fringes, State vs. DOD, John Kerry vs. Victoria Nuland, and on and on and on. Netanyahu’s on again, off again ethnic cleansing probably is a direct result of the intraparty squabbling. Throw in the consequences of open borders, mass migration and related fears of domestic terrorism that could hit even the oligarchs, and the incoherence becomes even more pronounced. The GAE is unstable as hell. Given the pronouncements of Erdogan, don’t expect much Article V invocation, either, since there are American nukes and bases in Turkey.

      It is unsustainable.

    • The administrative state fought back and defeated the “Last President” and got their wish of no overseer, but of course without regards for how unsustainable such a situation is. If nothing else at some point in the near future Congress will have to pass a real budget, not just some ordinance to provide legal cover for the administrative state to issue debt and then, with no leader, they’ll have to fight amongst themselves for a slice of a smaller pie.

      • The president has been a tool for the oligarchs probably forever, but at some point there has to be a figurehead for things like treaties and negotiations. Oops.

        • I’ve been banging that drum since 2020. The goofballs in the Deep State thought they’d love having a meat puppet at the top, because then they could do whatever they wanted without even a hint of supervision. But they are learning that there are certain things that a President must do, and that only a President can do — like, you know, running a war.

          And you simply can’t have a non compos mentis “President” running his mouth in tense international situations — wars have been started over far, far less, and there won’t always be some nonbinary genderfluid Pox of a spokesbeing there to cut the Big Guy’s mic off mid-babble (speaking of things that have caused actual wars, if that had happened to the President of an African, Baltic, or Central Asian state, you’d expect tanks in the streets by nightfall, as the coup was already happening).

          • Imagine you are Zelensky and the Secretary of State overrules what the Defense secretary told you yesterday. That’s what is happening here. I don’t know how different it is with Sunic or Macron or Scholz, but at least they are the ones conveying whatever the message of the day is.

    • Perfect analogy, and I will add some evidence. Anecdotal evidence from a chat room rando (me), but that’s the world we live in.

      A close friend of mine was in a senior leadership position on the ground during the air evacuation of HKIA in Afghanistan. He told me afterwards that they (the ground forces) were receiving contradictory orders from DoD, State Department, and the White House for the entire operation. That alone shows how dysfunctional our government is.

      When I asked him who’s orders they differed to, he replied, “The Taliban. It was f*cking shameful.”

      They were still getting orders on how to withdraw hours after the last troops were wheels up.

      • That explains a lot, and quite frankly I’m disappointed in myself for not connecting the dots since it has been obvious to me a long while there were disunified factions making ad hoc decisions about everything.

        • Doesn’t surprise me at all. And that’s why the US is “agreement-incapable,” as I think the term d’art is, and will remain so until there’s Regime Change in DC. Who could you possibly negotiate with? You could hammer out an agreement with State… that Defense reverses tomorrow. Then you hammer one out with State, and the White House substitutes some other damn fool thing, and on and on and on.

          • It was difficult enough to maintain a semblance of stability with a monocultural and near-monoracial and mono-religious society given the vastness of the country. Now? It is laughable even to think there could be a unified voice and coordinated action. If Biden became lucid and intelligent tomorrow he would be unable to hold things together.

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