Note: Last night, America’s two leading moderate voices held a special episode to discuss the looming war with Iran. You can listen here.
One of the things skipped past in the flurry of happenings over the last ten days is that the Trump administration has abandoned Ukraine. Pete Hegseth said as much in Congressional testimony where he said there were no plans to send Ukraine additional weapons or ask Congress for more money. At the G7 in Canada, Trump blew off a meeting with Zelensky without saying a word. The reason given was the crisis in the Middle East, which is now the priority.
For the Iran hawks, this is being greeted as good news as they assume this means Trump is onboard with their war schemes, but it may simply be the result of the clash between short term and long-term thinking. Like the this war scheme, Project Ukraine was a short-term operation. All involved assumed it would be a quick and glorious victory, but it turned into a long grind. The American empire does not do long grinds, so it is onto the next military project.
Project Ukraine did not become a long grind by accident. It was made so through deliberate actions by the Russians. Once they realized in 2022, after the war started, that the West was never going to negotiate, they quickly reorganized themselves and their war plans to turn it into a long grind. They correctly surmised that if they wanted a long-term solution to NATO, they needed to win a war of attrition with NATO, so they made Ukraine into a war of attrition.
It is why Trump’s deal making with Russia failed. He assumed that the people who got everything about Russian wrong to this point were right that Russia would jump at a short-term solution, so they used that as leverage. What he learned was that those people advising him were all wrong and Russia was unwilling to take a short-term deal like a ceasefire or a quick peace. Trump has dropped normalization talks with Russia because he sees that he has no cards to play.
Project Ukraine is an important lesson that no one in Washington is ready to grasp as the empire stumbles its way into another Middle East quagmire. The same people who were entirely wrong about Project Iraq two decades ago turned out to be wrong about Project Ukraine, but the results are much worse. The empire was eventually able to subdue Iraq and install a neutral government, but it came with long-term costs that continue to drain the imperial coffers.
The lesson of Iraq should have been that there are no short-term solutions to long-term problems and long-term problems come with long-term costs. People forget that the war with Iraq was touted as the solution to the Middle East problem. Even if it did not result in regime change in Iran, it would sufficiently terrify them that they would cease to be a problem as far as Washington was concerned. Twenty-five years on and Trump is on the edge of becoming George Bush.
We are getting the flickers of this gap between the long-term and the short-term in the war between Israel and Iran. When Washington and Tel Aviv cooked up the Pearl Harbor style sneak attack, it had two base assumptions. They assumed it would work and by work it would collapse the Iranian regime. There was no thought to what would happen after the sneak attack. There was no thought to what could happen if it did not work exactly as the planners promised.
Note that the Iranians have turned this into a long-term issue. They have more missiles and drones than Iran has attack missiles and air defense. Iran is ten times the size of Israel, so they can take a lot of damage and survive. Just as Ukraine found itself in a numbers game that favored the Russians, Israel is facing a similar math problem with the Iranians now. It is why they are demanding Trump join the war. They cannot overcome the math of their war with Iran.
If you can bear listening to the cries for blood from the usual suspects in Washington, what you hear is a demand for quick action. They insist that the Iranian regime is fragile, and it just needs to be pushed over in order to get regime change. These are the same people who said the same things about Iraq in the Bush years and said the same things about Russia just a few years ago. There is no talk of what comes next, because like Ted Cruz, they are incapable of such thinking.
What we are seeing with Iran is the same time dilation that has haunted the American empire since the end of the Cold War. Perhaps it is the result of foreign policy being run by short-term visitors or perhaps it is the nature of democratic societies. No matter the cause, America operates in a world where the clocks always speed forward to the desired result. In the rest of the world, clocks move at their own pace and often that pace is very slow and deliberate, as we see with Ukraine.
An attack on Iran assumes the clocks speed up, but that is unlikely. For all its problems, Iran is a stable society. It has survived fifty years of American sanctions. It survived a monstrous war against Iraq. They think in the long term and seem to have been thinking for a long time about what will happen if America makes war on them. Victory over Iran means a long, bloody fight, one where the clocks move slowly. What would come after that is decades of blood and treasure.
Ironically, the clock is now ticking on the Trump admin. They can take the bait and fall into another grinding war of attrition. That is the quick answer and the way the trap has been constructed by the trap makers. They want to speed up time for Trump so he cannot wait for better choices. On the other hand, they can just wait to see if better choices emerge over time. In Trump’s office, there are two clocks. One moves normally and the other races forward. Which one does he choose?
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“The lesson of Iraq should have been that there are no short-term solutions to long-term problems and long-term problems come with long-term costs.” The lesson of Iraq should have been that inventing problems that don’t exist and visiting the most mendacious lies upon a people to enlist to solve it is the road to ruin. America has 65 Million colonizers on its soil that is the majority in several major population centers. They just rose up and openly rioted to defy the enforcement of our national sovereignty and kick them out. They openly waive a foreign flag and announce their… Read more »
Beautiful comment.
It really does feel as if the events of the last week have been so blatant that Joe Normie now realizes the state is his enemy and the war is here.
“,,,so blatant that Joe Normie now realizes…” Ah, if only that was the case. In my experience dealing with these people, family, business contacts … that is just not so. At this point, the propaganda is aimed at such a low level that if there is an audience of people that STUPID … that want to convert their wives and sisters into Gold Star Mothers … or see their sons, legless, living under an overpass as passers-by mutter, ‘thank you for your servive’ as they pitch boins into a hat … … I can’t see any way to stop the… Read more »
national anthem sung in spanish should wake up a few people
Outstanding. The crisis is AT HOME, the enemy is inside the gates, openly looting and burning . . . and we are served up another opportunity to change a nation on the other side of Earth into Globohomo Progland II.
Just another betrayal. They’d rather start WW3 than admit that Their Democracy was wrong and is effed.
Couldn’t agree more. Why are God’s green earth are we focusing on the ME. Who cares. It’s do or die time at home. What a sorry country we’ve become.
Yes. A pity we do not have any leaders who understand this.
They are paid to not understand.
The US is a boxer who can throw a punch but can neither take a punch nor last past the first round or two, at least not against a decent (but not even great) fighter. Therefore, the blueprint for defeating the US has been laid out. Wait us out. Iran seems to understand this and is saying that it will continue the fight if the US gets involved. Trump and the neocons probably think Iran is bluffing. If so, we attack and then we find out. Regardless, it’s a supremely stupid bet on Trump’s part. He wins little but could… Read more »
They seem to be shifting from regime change to a likely pointless MOAB strike as of this a.m. Rank idiocy to have gotten to this point.
Yeah, shifting the narrative allows them to hit Iran with some bunker busters and declare victory. Iran says that it will continue with its nuke program and also declares victory – but quietly stops. Everyone is satisfied.
Except Israel. This was always about regime change, never about nukes, which Iran didn’t even want. Will the Israel Lobby allow this kind of peace? I doubt it, but, for once, they may not be able to stop it. Regardless, Trump should jump at it.
The most terrifying part? There was absolutely no anticipation of the fierce blowback/rage.
Israel also will declare victory after the boom-boom if they cannot get their American servants to do the dirty work.
Sure, but it will be a big loss for Israel. All of the global trends are working against them. Their power relative to Iran’s will fall over time. The US is receding into a regional power. Iran will do more trade with the BRICs. Missile technology works in Iran’s favor.
There’s a reason Israel felt the need to roll the dice now rather than wait.
I’ve been writing for a while now that the window is closing for Israel to commit outrages so it will accelerate them. How many wars has Israel lost in recent decades? Three, I think. It has an even bleaker future than the GAE although it will remain an intact ethnostate albeit something of a backwater with nukes for a bit.
Yes, an Israel dominated by Orthodox Jews isn’t going to be great – for anyone including Israel. Iran and Saudi Arabia trading with the BRICs will make more independent and less vulnerable to US threats. Finally, US power will continue to wane.
Granted, Israel’s population is growing nicely, but, outside of that, its future looks to be a much less powerful country. It’s not going anywhere, but its ability push around its neighbors if fading. We’re probably witnessing a high-water mark for Israel right now.
It’s not 1948 anymore. The Jews in Israel expect that they’re moving to New York On The Med so how many will bug out when they have to hide out in their bomb shelters several times a month while the power grid fades in and out? Given a couple years of that the place will be a shell of it’s former self with a bunch of Bibi psycho cases along with the Bearded Bunch who will figure they can get a deal to live in peace if they turn the area over to the Saudis (which they’d be correct).
Israel, in the form of Netanyahu, who needs to keep as many plates spinning as possible in his attempt to stave off prison time. It’s amazing–or, rather, appalling– how long Israeli politicos stay in power or remain in opposition, given the blood sport that is Israeli politics. Anyway, I’m a little behind the curve in antagonism toward Israel, but I voted for the frail hope of peace abroad (a/k/a not fighting others’ wars) and the prospect of prosperity and personal liberty at home. OOPS! Trump’s a’ la carte approach to politics and his junking of dealmaking in favor of an… Read more »
I don’t dislike the Jews or israel, nor do I want to lick their boots like so many evangelicals. I dislike the hold it has over what is supposedly the most powerful nation on planet earth. It smells to high heaven. That’s why I’ve been calling the GOP Israel Firsters Uncle Toms lately. The name fits like a glove.
And there is still the issue of 8 million people trying to push around a nation with 92 million people. The math just doesn’t work.
If Israel does not achieve its (Netanyahu’s) originally stated rationale of taking out Iran’s nuclear program, Bibi is toast domestically.
It is amazing he lasted this long. I suspect he will join his son in Miami Beach to avoid extradition.
Politically, he’s a dead man walking; the IDF has relied on quick wars waged by reservists. The relative stalemate in the Strip has served to prolong his tenure but also delay the inevitable. Maybe his hope is to be ruled unfit to stand trial–yet those judges he failed to appoint may be gunning for him.
I meant to write that the closed shop that is the Israeli judiciary might want to send him away, since he wanted to upset their apple cart by appointing judges. Not unreasonable, but the populace didn’t want Bibi facing his appointees.
I gave JD a little historical lesson about what happened to all the well-heeled Republican suburbs around here after Bush II bumbled into Iraq using the example of Upper Arlington, Ohio on his Twitter feed. JD should be familiar with that town since he went to The Ohio State University which is right next door. After Bush stumbled into Iraq, virtually the same amount of Republicans were pissed about it as what we’ve seen the last few days. I started seeing Democrat campaign signs in those suburbs to a degree never seen before. Those suburbs have gotten progressively more Democrat… Read more »
Why should they stop? I would throw as many resources into it as I could afford at this point.
In the process, betraying that regime change is what they wanted originally.
Like I said here yesterday, we thought we were getting “eye of the tiger” Rocky with Trump 2.0, but instead we got the bloated, tired Ali whom Holmes jabbed into a sad retirement.
Trump Murdock: https://youtu.be/7T1mpYdJsVQ?t=46
“Regardless, it’s a supremely stupid bet on Trump’s part. He wins little but could lose everything. What a chump.”
Maybe he has no choice. Maybe he made a Faustian pact with the Israel Lobby and the deep state to be allowed into power. The first promise he’s going to go back on is: “Read my lips: no more wars.”
That’s exactly my take. He made a deal within the context of the ongoing conflict among the International Jews, siding with the Israel-First faction against the Rothschild/Blackrock faction. That’s why he was so dismissive of Gabbard. It didn’t matter if she was correct. He made a deal and HAD to satisfy his end of the bargain in good faith. My problem is that it is clear that what he wanted out of the deal was a chance to save ‘the country’ rather than the chance to save OUR PEOPLE and the rest of the European nations. I don’t give a… Read more »
Let’s stop calling it a ‘country’ and start calling it a ‘territory’. Even Russia at the time of Perestroika had more coherent sense of national identity.
Operation FAFO
The Ukraine game isn’t over folks. Iran is just the halftime show. The second half starts soon. Russia is up a touchdown and starting to wear down the blue/yellow defense. Yes, the Ukraine “trick play” worked on the bombers, but the stats show the Russian yardage advantage. Anything longer than a Super Bowl is beyond our national attention span anyway. Nobody will be watching until the Russians roll up to the Dnieper and Trump has to make some tough decisions. And now, a message from Pfizer…
Now that’s putting it in language that the grillers can understand!
Five years ago this war wouldn’t have happened:
1) Russian military was assumed to be much more powerful, especially after their defeat of ISIS in Syria.
2) Iran’s army was assumed to be much more powerful, especially after they helped Russia defeat ISIS in Syria.
3) Nobody thought Israel could seriously cripple Hezbollah within a matter of days.
4) Everyone assumed Russia would step in to defend a key ally (Iran) like they did with Assad.
They have more missiles and drones than Iran has attack missiles and air defense. I think you meant “Israel” there. A noticeable shift has happened over the last twelve hours. “Nikki” “Haley,” the most serpentine, stupid Israel shill imaginable, just posted that Iranian regime change is not a goal, and implying it is not even possible. Her message: take out the nuke sites! This is where this is probably heading. My guess is the normal narrative magic not only backfired but stirred up a lot of latent, fully justified anti-Israel sentiment. The Tucker interview with Ted Cruz, in addition to… Read more »
Yeah, they’ll switch the narrative to taking out the nuke sites, then hit Iran with some bunker busters and declare victory. The big question is whether Iran plays along. Will Iran just admit defeat. Not a great look. Iran could say that they will continue to work on their nuclear program – and thus they’ve won – but quietly stop. The US says Iran is do debilitated that their program doesn’t matter and also declares victory – again. Probably the best outcome. However, that’s not what Israel wants. Iran never wanted nukes. This whole thing was about regime change. My… Read more »
The problem long term is Congress doesn’t matter. The intelligence services will continue to play fuck-fuck games one way or the other. Even more than AIPAC, the IC is the biggest cancer on the republic now. I do think bombing and a declaration of victory has become the decided narrative, though.
The IC can try, but as I’ve mentioned, historical trends are working against Israel and the US IC. Iran will get stronger via trade with the BRICs. Our sanctions will be less debilitating by the year. As our military power wans, the IC and Israel are left with only color revolutions, but those are more difficult since 1) everyone has learned how to deal with them and 2) more prosperous regimes are far, far less vulnerable. Basically, the world is moving on. The way that you beat Jews and the US is disengagement. Don’t let them into your life and… Read more »
Agreed. It almost is unfathomable even now how much is beyond the US’s direct control. The IC–really, the entirety of the Anglosphere’s IC–has essentially been its own quasi-autonomous rogue government a long time. I can see it retaining marginally more power than the governments it ostensibly serves. There’s been a lot lost in the noise of the last few days, but it has been confirmed that China did help manipulate the 2020 election, and, even worse, the IC sat on that information. My guess is it subcontracted the job.
‘The IC–really, the entirety of the Anglosphere’s IC–has essentially been its own quasi-autonomous rogue government a long time’
Intel has directed the deep state bureaucracies at least since ’63, as we were discussing yesterday. They are the permanent government. They red-pen Hollywood, they control info ingress and egress. They paint the picture.
Mostly a combo of U.S. and Brit ‘services’, I’d guess. They really are sister nations.
Yes. I do have to note that some of the more surprisingly venomous outfits are found in places like Australia and non-Anglo Italy, though.
I’d take a return of an unabashedly Anglo-American establishment at this point. Redraw the lines, eventually back to ‘76. Devolve the whole thing. No more gay world blob.
“We’re not going to war against Iran. We’re just committing an act of war against them!”
Anyone who thinks that it will just stop at a bunch of bunker busters is just fooling themselves. Obviously the Lobby and the neocons and Israel are working hard to tell us that it’s no big deal if we just give them what they want, it’s just a few missiles, they’ll take care of it, then it will be over, don’t you want peace? We’ve literally gone through this exact rigamorale for centuries. “Hey, no need to get involved in the war, just lease Britain and the USSR some weapons.” I mean, COME ON. FFS, we can’t fall for this… Read more »
But that’s where it is heading, bombing and a quick announcement of victory. Reality–including the ability to produce arms–will be the deciding factor. “Nikki” “Haley” indeed is doing what she has been told, and that’s to take down the anti-Israel temperature a notch.
The only reason we are talking about bunker busters now is because Israel’s “decapitation” aggression strike failed. They tried to declare victory afterwards and were triumphant in the media… until missiles started raining down on Haifa and Tel Aviv.
What happens when bunker busters fail? Remember Israel is the one in control here.
It is the question never asked. “Then what?”
Then Iran retaliates enough to drag us into a 20 year quagmire. I’m sure the Israelis have thought this far ahead. Bog down the US in a long war, drain its treasury and feed off its husk, while keeping their mortal enemy in a box. It’s a great plan, assuming their bribes are enough to keep our politicians betraying America.
“… to keep our politicians betraying America.”
When Miss Lindsay and the Lightbringer Obama share a coat closet, who is on top?
Asking for a friend.
That’s what they do to corporate America so why not America, Inc.
Where does Israel get the money for those bribes?
Something tells me it’s probably money we gave them and is coming back in the form of kickbacks.
It’s the playbook these crooked politicians are using everywhere else, so why not here too?
They will lie about the bunker bomb results one way or another. And as Z just posted, second order consequences ceased to be a consideration long ago.
This is shaping up to the the GAE’s Suez Crisis although that never will be the narrative.
That’s the big question, isn’t it. Trump drops some bunker busters, Iran refuses to buckle, both declare victory and look to end this.
But Israel wants regime change. Indeed, Israel needs regime change because historical trends are working against it. The US is getting relatively weaker. Iran is getting stronger with BRICS. Missile technology favors Iran. Israel gets weaker day by day relative to Iran.
It has to be now.
“It has to be now.”
THIS is the key. I talk with young people all the time in my travels. The HATE Israel.
I knoiw college admin folks — they are PROUD of their students for HATING Israel/
Frankly I cannot think of ONE person under 30 I know that does not HATE Israel.
“I knoiw college admin folks — they are PROUD of their students for HATING Israel/”
If anything should give you pause, that is it. I’m no fan of Israel, but I positively loathe academic administrators/profs and so should you. And if your views align with theirs you should probably rethink them.
Stopped clocks and whatnot. I don’t define myself by the opposition, at least not 100% of the time.
In Washington: Success is a complete collapse in Iran following 2 weeks of air strikes.
Not discussed: a million plus dead as the Iran devolves into civil war. Plus millions flooding into Europe.
But hey, not our problem. And the 51st state, senior state among equals, is quite pleased.
One could conclude that the flood of refugees is desired
Absolutely. For example, the primary reason Bukele is hated is because he halted the flow of Salvadorans to the United States. Complaints about human rights are just a smoke screen.
I was going to type the same thing. Iran seems pretty well stocked in the missile and drone department.
I am still holding out hope that Trump is playing the game of letting the usual suspects expose themselves, but I have to admit that after the last few days, it’s hard to believe that he hasn’t been sucked into “Israel First.”
Also funny how Ted Cruz’s stock has fallen. He was supposed to be the most brilliant constitutionalist the academy has ever produced. He’s nothing special.
If Texas can’t produce a better class of R senator they are going to risk losing those seats. Which probably wouldn’t bother the GOP.
Even if Trump limits this to a perfunctory deep penetration bunker-buster vs a nuke site it still may blow up horribly in his face. Serbs bagged a stealth fighter, the Iranians could bag a stealth bomber. A B-2 going down in flames would be a mess.
The problem is that neocons think they’re smarter and better than everyone else. It’s in their DNA and they cannot change.You can give them a tour of underground Iranian bases or Russian military accomplishments and they’ll go home and say those countries are backward. Until neocons are purged from every decision making process, this will continue and the rest of the world will suffer.
This is the moment, the dividing line where MAGA finds out what side Trump is on. There have been other times where Trump sided with the Global American Regime over MAGA, such as the experimental mRNA shots, and “bringing more legal immigrants than ever before,” but this is the big one that MAGA can’t ignore like the others.
I wonder about the psychological after-effects of this. Trump has immense symbolic power to tens of millions of people. In their minds, his victory was a vindication of American liberal democracy, in that — for once — their preferences were triumphant in a national election. It will not happen again in their lifetimes, and he represented, more or less, their last, best chance. As you say, his betrayal will be impossible to ignore. It will entail confronting a very ugly truth that many others have known for much longer, and were far better prepared to accept than Joe Normie. Once… Read more »
Flounder finding out the truth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYQCb3qrBpo&ab_channel=SteveGuttenbergAudiophiliac
‘I have to wonder how a very unstable, angry citizenry will handle that lesson’
. . . especially as the cities riot and burn. This is only mid-June.
The fireworks haven’t even begun.
I was in Pittsburgh a few days ago and there was no rioting or burning. Some cities have experienced rioting and destruction, and most seem to be in lovely, sensible California. Let’s not exaggerate.
I’m sure Trump will lose a portion of his base, but I think the majority will just memory-hole the betrayal or get right on board with the latest middle east adventure. I’ve heard it from friends and family. They “don’t want war” with Iran, but they think we need to go destroy their nuclear facilities. To them, Iran is trying to get a bomb because they want to nuke the US. Trying to explain to them that this is not a movie just doesn’t register. It is like arguing with Fox news.
I saw a full court press on X from anons, likely a lot of bots, to rally support. All the expected propaganda, calling people who opposite it third-worldists and brown, the “I don’t trust some MAGA grifter, I trust TRUMP” stuff, etc. They’re going to try to lump people like me who oppose it with the dirty hippies on the left and it’s probably going to work. Are people falling for it? I saw one post about a poll about 75% of peope being opposed to Iran’s nuclear program, up 51 points. Where were these people ten years ago when… Read more »
It’s embarrassing how easy it is to fool people. I had a conversation with a normie about how Iran has allegedly been trying to get nukes for 40 years. I asked him if he thought it was really that hard for a country that produces more engineers than we do (not counting all the foreigners we degree) to develop a nuke? I proded a bit- do you think maybe there might be something more at play here than Iran is just about to get nukes? And even if they are, why do you assume Iran immediately begins shooting them into… Read more »
Frankly, Iran nuking AINO back to the stone age might be a good thing. Give us a chance at a fresh start… (-;
All it took this time was a very sloppy looking military parade, afterward Lee Greenwood singing “Proud to be an American” and Trump posting every 15 minutes: “Iran cannot have nukes.”
I’ve changed my mind. I am fully on board with Iran getting nukes at this point. They deserve to have enough strength in their arsenal so that they don’t get effed with by Israel and all the Israel Firsters in the US government.
Pakistan having nukes is a pretty solid argument that Iran having them wouldn’t end in world annihilation. You’ll notice the difference between the two countries is not its Muslim extremism- it’s the direct proximity to Our Greatest Little Friend.
I’m going out on a limb here, but if the neocons go to war for Israel against Iran, Trump will not finish his term. After seeing his social media diarrhea the last couple weeks, I seriously question his fitness for office. He may not be much better than Biden was. He seems to be in the senior citizen anger and rage phase before his mind starts to go really fast. Vance is far from perfect but at least he isn’t a candidate for the nursing home. He also hopefully is someone who just goes through the motions of Israel support… Read more »
Some wag on X noted that Trump’s “Unconditional Surrender!” tweet was already accurate.
Trump and the US have already surrendered to you know who.
Trump just stating the obvious.
Vance has likely been co-opted since he was a callow “media specialist” in a war zone.
Nobody is “co-opted.”
Vance is a globohomo neocon/neolib because he hates you and wants you to die. He’s smart enough to pretend otherwise, sometimes. Not this week. He leaped to the front of the “regime-changing Iran is a core premise of MAGA” messaging brigade because this war will kill your children.
He values nothing else.
It will be handled by dropping out. I would hope the biggest drop will come in reduced military enlistments.
Reagan wasn’t the same after they shot him, either. Maybe that’s what we are witnessing, even though Private Bone Spurs only got shot in the ear.
He started showing the early signs of Alzheimer’s.
Bone spurs on the privates is a serious matter. Bah-dum-bum.
Was that Trump’s war dodge?
Many are ignoring it though. Go over to Conservative Treehouse and see the contortions those people go though to claim Trump is right on Iran. It never occurs to these people that all of them would be up in arms if the Biden Regime had done exactly what Trump is doing now.
Virtually all wars throughout history (to include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) were begun by people who thought victory would be quick and/or easy. There are not very many exceptions. What distinguishes the GAE is its predilection for finding someone new to make war on, whether directly or by proxy, every 5-10 years, save for a brief window post-Vietnam in which it mostly gave it a rest (but still couldn’t resist Grenada and sending the jarheads to Beirut). The distinguishing feature of the current dustup with Iran, relative to other GAE wars, is how little effort was put into persuading the… Read more »
Public opinion/input never has mattered. They just don’t go through the motions now.
Oh, it matters when it gets loud enough and our side was getting loud.
As Jonah Goldberg said in 2002: “Every ten years the US has to pick up some small, crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.” That is how they think. They might be running out of small, crappy countries, however.
Back in my door-to-door sales days, the only dog that ever bit me was a Chihuahua. You never know.
Fuller Brush man?
Cable TV
You were like a deity to us in the old days. We pined until your arrival.
And AINO is a big, crappy country. It’s high time somebody knocked it’s block off with a vicious, surprise uppercut to the chin or sent it writhing to the dirt with a wicked knee to the huevos.
It’s shocking, really. The vast majority of Americans are vociferously against a war, and yet they are bald-faced in their indifference.
I’m thinking ‘they were always this way’ except nobody was paying attention before. When you look at old news footage it’s just as transparently obvious. Maybe it’s just that too many of us have had our ‘they live’ moment for the BS to work anymore.
The volume and intensity of noticing is really ramping up on what I would consider to be pretty normie-oriented sites and posts.
I think it has sunken in with a lot of people that our greatest ally sicced Jeffrey Epstein on us (with our intelligence looking the other way) and was controlling our government. Most normies haven’t figured it out yet, but enough people know.
The griller learning curve is a flat line
It is bizarre, especially in contrast to all the UN theatrics we were subjected to in 2003.
I’ve been somewhat surprised, although I should not have been, at the absolutely no explanation for Israel’s attacks. The assumption is that they just get to do whatever they want. Casus belli? You’re just supposed to assume that Iran got too close to the bomb, so Israel just had to strike. It should be jaring for normie to see the lack of any explanation contrasted with years of getting lectured how Russia had absolutely NO reason to attack Ukraine. It should lay bare we are being dog-walked by these people; just a coincidence that Syria got toppled, Gaza is getting… Read more »
You can’t defend Israel’s attack on Iran while condemning Russia’s. Both have a very similar (existential) ostensible rationale.
Not defending Israel, asking where is its justification. Russia has outlined its issues repeatedly for the special military operation. Maybe you can enlighten us on the casus belli Israel has used to justify its actions? Make sure to cite current examples, not old declarations that Iran can never have access to nukes. Israel didn’t plan these attacks last week. So why are we not being at least told a story about how Iran was JUST ABOUT TO BREAK THROUGH? They don’t even bother to offer an excuse, which is something if you think about it.
WW1 was thought by all the major powers to take no more than 6-8 weeks. By 1916 the British empire was flat broke and had to go trundling to the USA for money and credit.
The one a lot of Americans are familiar with is the Battle of Manassas/Bull Run where both sides walked into it thinking it was in the bag and that the war would be over at it’s conclusion.
I think the issue with Trump is who flatters him and talks to him last. We can only hope JD Vance or Tulsi is the last person to talk to him about Iran when the final decision is made. There are no advantages to our involvement in Iran. If we do “regime change,” Iran will degenerate into another failed state like Libya or Syria which will create a “refugee” crisis that will be flowing into Europe. We’ve been told since the 1990s that Iran was close to a bomb and it was an “existential” threat to Israel. If the mullahs… Read more »
if vance is smart, he will wait until trump fucks over america in a really obvious way, and resign. make a big speech about how trump was flawed in mind and character. and then set about forming a new party.
Not in his character. He makes a good consigliere but doesn’t have the temperament for a don, and perhaps not even the ambition to be one.
That would deep six any presidential chances. Trump is still a demigod to large numbers of Republicans.
The difference now is that Trump really seems to be war-drunk. His comments the past 24-48 hours are genuinely disturbing. He’s getting support from everyone who has hated him the past six months, all telling him how brave and courageous he is to take part in this. He’s obviously loving it. It’s like all the worst instincts of this guy are being leaned on simultaneously by the worst people to follow the worst course of action. Guys like Tucker tried to reach out and he called him a kook, and Tucker has talked him down from this lunatic neocon ledge… Read more »
After watching those fat, dumpy, shuffling shitbags of the Army file past him last week, the BOM’s appetite for foreign wars might be muted a bit, since those turds are going to lose the next war.
That was genuinely pathetic, the Special Olympics of military parades.
It did look like my Navy Reserve unit marching down the road. To think I could’ve been a contender— in Special Olympics
China and Russia were roaring in laughter and shouting, ‘More!’.
Their military parades feature huge swathes of hard, war-ready men marching in perfect order.
New Amerika’s parades feature entitled princesses taking selfies of each other and fat, clueless homos. Their daddies are SO proud of them!
The nation’s leaders are sure they’ll be just fine in combat because, hey, they fight great in the movies!
I saw a short snippet of the “parade” and it looked like a bunch of basic trainees route- stepping to the mess hall. Seriously.
You’re falling for the psyop. The initial leftist talking point was “Trump can’t have a military parade, that makes him a fascist!” When that didn’t work, they shifted to “look how slovenly our military looks. The 75th Ranger Regiment can’t march in step!” as if the Rangers actively devote any time at all to drill and ceremony. The Army does have several units whose sole duty is D&C (Pershing’s Own, the Old Guard) and they excel at it beyond any other nation’s counterparts. Yammering on about how the most lethal infantry unit in the world are walking down the road… Read more »
Bullshit. I was a United States Marine when that meant something. I could fucking march like a champion and handle a 240G machine gun. They were not mutually exclusive, because both involved discipline and pride, which the Army has none of anymore.
True. Even army basic training graduates could march competently not so long ago.
Basic marching that looks good is not difficult. Guide front, guide right, step off with the cadence. Any retard can do it. Many retards have done it.
Dress it right and cover down
Forty inches all around
That’s the Ft. Ord boogie
What a crazy sound!
Many retards are doing it. In the AINO Army.
Clinton dropped the standards significantly. Today’s military seem like a mixed bag: absolute social dregs on the one hand, valiant paladins on the other (based on my acquaintances and observations).
Consider this: those Sad Sacks were Rangers, the army’s hardest core. They marched like the Keystone Kops.
it’s pointless to talk about trump’s thinking, almost to the point of being a category error. think of trump as the noise, not the signal, and filter him out. same with all the others in his administration. the neocons are constants and can likewise be ignored in terms of their involvement in the myriad wars going on. what’s left is akin to random behavior, chaos theory reified. there is plenty of objective data to work with; armaments expended, transportation routes interdicted, activity on the front lines of a conflict, missile barrages in a region.
chaos theory reified
Keeper.
If you haven’t seen this video, it’s worth a look. It reveals the missile resources that Iran has stockpiled in subterranean tunnels, and most of these missile complexes include a mobile launcher. This means they can be dispersed widely and will be almost impossible to find and interdict in mountainous areas; just like as was the case in Afghanistan. Bet on Iran to outlast the US and Israel. How stupid we have become. This insanity will not end until we have financial collapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRA2oQnXsSQ
You can’t win a war from the air. That’s been proven time and time again. At some point you need to bring in infantry to fight the enemy and beat them. Even though the IDF has been very good at blowing up women and babies, the diaper brigades have not performed well against Hamas. This is why Hamas is around and nobody, not even Netanyahu, pretend like they defeated Hamas. It is how a bunch of guys in tents were able to beat the mighty US Navy that spent billions of dollars to shoot at them. So, this idea that… Read more »
They think if they just narrative hard enough they can will victory into existence. Boys can be girls, girls can be boys, and we’ve always been at war with Eastasia.
“You can’t win a war from the air.”
It was ~2-3? months ago a joint Israeli-American (sponsored? how many mercs? how many state contracted?) commando group went into Yemen presumably on a missile launcher hunt, and were killed to the last man. The pool of men capable of being trained to that level is not large, and it takes years to develop skills, so this was not a small loss.
Never heard about that- but would explain why the Houthis just kind of disappeared from the news and we dropped the whole thing. If you can’t beat ’em, just take your ball go home. you got any links to the launcher hunt?
The Houthis launched attacks last week. This secret squirrel commando team must not have been 100% effective. Or more likely zioganda
I think they were 0% effective. They were slaughtered immediately. The story I read included conjecture (almost certainly correct) that Russian Federation satellites tracked their insertion plane before it entered Yemeni airspace and allowed Yemenis to efficiently vector in on them. It’s entirely plausible in that our DC apparatchiks have grown stupid and arrogant fighting subpeer enemies. Why would the Russians NOT help Yemen give globohomo a black eye? We are not only not their technological superior anymore, I don’t even think we can claim to be a peer, in military technology at least, but these morons still think it’s… Read more »
Some people never learn. The only way to impose one’s will on an enemy is to crush them and take over their land. Germany only submitted after the Soviets, British and American occupied every square inch of their territory. Turning all their cities to rubble made no difference at all. The Japanese submitted only after nuclear weapons were used on them, as well as the entire might of the allies heading towards their islands. It doesn’t matter how many bombs, missiles and drones are dropped on Iran, or how many mullahs and generals are killed. They will not submit to… Read more »
Occupying a nation of 90+ million is no easy feat, especially when they’re all politically unified…against the occupiers. Iraq devolved into a civil war between Shia and Sunni that the US was essentially playing referee for. That’s not going to happen in Iran. They have the population size of all of Western Europe and, unlike Germany after WWII, they are not above complex insurgency actions. The kind that wear down and attrit an occupying force with surprising rapidity. This is the kind of hybrid warfare that the US dealt with in Korea and Vietnam to a certain extent. In Korea… Read more »
It would be an abject disaster that would make the Iraq debacle look like a brilliant move. And anything short of an existential threat to our homeland would not justify its undertaking. But that’s what’s worrisome, I wouldn’t put it past our parasitic leadership class to actually do it.
Apparently, the last straw for Japan was not the bombs but the Soviet attack. That meant their attempt to get the Soviets to mediate a conditional surrender with the allies was not going to happen.
Trump apparently doesn’t care what Tulsi Gabbard thinks. OK, then. What was the point of employing her for intelligence? If I was her, I’d resign immediately.
She’s there as window dressing. Yes, she should resign and call Trump a bunch of derogatory names as she does so.
Geo-militarism and raw materials issues aside, what does The Regime want in Iran? Socially, culturally?
Well, the same as for Iraq and Afghanistan: demand globalism and egalitarianism, install feminism and female supremacy, celebrate homosexuality and LGBTQ on a mass level, and turn Iran into the County Mall . . . though the County Mall closed down twenty years ago and is now a vacant eyesore on the land.
Do I want Nancy Pelosi, Kathy Hochul and the Ghermezian brothers running Iran, or the Ayatollah? Give me the Big Bearded Dood for $100, Alex! Mullah mullah!
Don’t forget the Crown Jewel of Globohomo: A Rofschild controlled Central Bank to bring Iran ‘into the fold’.
It’s true and I should have included it. Soon after, stringer offices of Blackrock and Vanguard in Teheran.
It’s almost enuf to inspire sympathy in me for the spirit over Iran. Almost.
The Pentagon has wargamed a war with Iran a couple of times, and the results have been uniformly bad for the US military…Any carriers in the vicinity get sunk, and there’s no way the Army can get traction without huge casualties…Now Iran has powerful allies in Russia, China and the Norks, and is already getting supplies and armament from them…China is highly dependent on Iranian oil and won’t quit… Economically, Iran closing the Strait and probably the Houthi closing the Red Sea will result in a total disaster for the West, with $200/bl oil, maybe higher…I just can’t see any… Read more »
Where are Iran’s “powerful allies” currently? Barely hearing a peep from Russia, China, NK.
The comparisons to Pearl Harbor by the blob is disingenuous, at least the way they mean it. Pearl Harbor was not a surprise sneak attack. They knew it was coming because they are the ones who provoked it. The public was pretty unified against joining the war. FDR did everything he could to provoke a declaration of war from Germany by illegally arming and feeding Germany’s enemies. They wanted to provoke Hitler into using U-boats to sink these illegal shipments. But Hitler wouldn’t fall for it. We’re playing the same stupid word games today with Russia and Ukraine. “We’re not… Read more »
Yes x10,000. It’s Roosevelt’s baiting of Japan that finally convinced me that progressivism is just evil. Everything that was done to Nazi’s to anathematize and demonize and eradicate their ideology must be done to progressivism. It is fundamentally anti-human.
I don’t know, “say what you will about the tenants of National Socialism- at least it’s an ethos.” – Walter Sobchak
Seconded.
I hate posts like this and always get downvoted for criticizing them but so what:
-It’ not FDR’s fault Hitler couldn’t keep it zipped up, like the U.S. was going to let the U.K. fall to Germany. Look to Putin today on how to handle such shenanigans correctly.
-Pro-White people who simp for Imperial Japan have seen too many Miyazaki movies. FDR moves to make sure the White nations in the Pacific aren’t turned into Japanese rape colonies and that’s the thanks he gets.
Yeah, because saving the Brits and Soviets worked out so well.
You are insane if you think the war in the pacific couldn’t be avoided. We could have easily prevented Japan from attacking American interests in the region.
Long term yeah it sucks because victory was pissed away, many such cases (peace has made you soft, victory has defeated you)
Well obviously you can because you have 80+ years of hindsight working in your favor.
There should also have been a second lesson that neocon expeditions create new long-term problems. These people have been running amok destroying lives for I don’t know how long. When is somebody going to be tried for “Crimes Against Humanity?”
Part of the problem is the complete collapse in competence of our senior defense personnel, uniformed and civilian. The US military used to be a bastion of defense against the International Jew, as catalogued by Joseph Bendersky in his 2000 “The Jewish Threat.” He wrote from the point of view that they were all racists and that there was no IJ problem. Here we are a quarter century later and his premise, his prerequisite notion that WASP resistance to the IJ was racist and illegitimate, is transparently ridiculous. Bendersky writing this book was a staggering own goal. It is a… Read more »
Based comment Friendo. I have a feeling we might have similar backgrounds. About the officer IQs- a large part of that is the DEI cancer. Kind of hard to get geniuses when you have Shaniquoas and Tonquarious watering down your pool.
‘The kind of young men who can grow into exceptionally capable warfighters or military industrial planners are simply not in the pipeline’ Young white men, raised by dads who were THE HEADS OF THEIR HOUSEHOLDS, standing in defense of a supportive culture is Old America. New Amerika has made war on precisely those men since the Seventies, and seen to it they don’t have dads, and if they do those dads are subjugated by law to their wives, and their wives well know it. Those young men existed when I was enlisted. They don’t exist now because New Amerika excised… Read more »
Just started watching the interview in the link. Two sane guys trying to figure out what the heck is going on inside the spinning fruit salad bowl of weirdness that is the minds of the people making decisions these days. Valiant though you may try you are never going to understand what drives these people including Trump. You simply do not have the necessary prerequisites; you’re not effing nuts. Sane people will never “get” what it’s like inside a narcissist psychosis. That said, I hope America dodges a war with Iran. When you have cancer, you don’t need a heart… Read more »
They have more missiles and drones than
Iran^Israel^ has attack missiles and air defense.Wups.
“Which one does he choose?” A rhetorical question surely. Which one does a rash and impulsive man surrounded by shameless sycophants, and not given to strategic thought, self-doubt and introspection choose? My money is that Trump will rush in where angels fear to tread. I agree with the rest of your essay and for what it’s worth my sympathies are with the Iranians. At the same time I can’t help thinking they have been guilty of missteps. They should never have trusted the USA, they should probably not have allowed in the inspectors, and most importantly they should have had… Read more »
There isn’t going to be a ground invasion of Iran. Nobody has the troops (never mind the logistical train). Looks to me like the same clever guys who convinced themselves that sanctions would topple Putler have now convinced themselves that some mix of sanctions and bombing will topple the mullahs. The next big question to be answered is how much more directly and openly involved the GAE is going to get.
Ground invasion is probably out. Even Trump will flinch from that.
It’s not now that he’ll make that decision. It’ll be after a US asset is hit hard, and the generals will give him no choice.
I should have said no US/Israeli ground invasion (even after a US asset is hit). But there could be a proxy army lined up that we don’t know about. Azerbaijan?
Yesterday I was in the office. I work with a LOT of Iranian exiles. FWIW, this is what I was told. My co-workers had called their family in Iran. Their families are scared, but hopeful the Regime will collapse. The Regime is hated because it was both corrupt and repressive. I was reminded of the several overthrow attempts during the Obama years of large crowds of young people tired of the twin corruption and repression. They could stomach the one but not the other. [Note, this is a sample sized selected out of exiles, so make of this what you… Read more »
My second job at age 15 was bussing tables at a mexican restaurant. There were a couple of Iranian waiters who the customers mistook for Mexicans. There’s really not much difference is there. And yes I would take that deal. But I’d be astonished if it’s on offer.
The rumor always was that Team B would do what they could to save Classical America, but in return Classical America had to save Israel (thus the additional thought that Bibi jumped the gun way, way before Trump had sufficient cache to pull it off).
In the early Eighties I was finishing up my B.A. at a cheap state uni. Vets were given an option of working in the little V.A. Affairs Office on campus, for a small salary additional to their equally small V.A. educational benefit (upon which I lived). One day I enter the office and there are two ME-looking doods staffing my desk. Uh, what unit are you boys from say I. ‘Persia’ was their answer. Unediicated me, I didn’t know ‘Persia’ was a country, much less an asset of the U.S. armed forces. Couple months later the women careerists that ran… Read more »
It really was a pittance- about $450/ month iirc. The benefits now are full tuition + books + living expenses of several thousand a month.
Everyone hates the Iran Regime, but I’m hard pressed to identify an “upgrade” regime change in the Middle East in my lifetime and I’m a little older than Zman.
You’re forgetting one thing. The Shah was OUR stooge. What was that we were talking about, about second order consequences?
So was Saddam.
If true the regime is far more likely to collapse when it’s not being attacked by governments that would like to see all the Persians killed.
The shah once admitted that one of his critical mistakes was stopping the bribes paid to the mullahs for support.
The air war in Iran, while disturbing , is of much less importance than the demographic replacement in the USA. I would take that theoretical trade.
Except we’re not getting mass deportations. 2000 arrests a day is 700k a year. That leaves 59,300,000 after year one.
Netanyahu launched the attack the day after he survived a parliamentary-collapse vote in the Knesset. It seems the purpose of the current conflict is justifying a continued state of emergency. Why would Netanyahu even want an exit strategy in that context?
All politics is local.
This is a very important point. People overlook the necessity of the “long emergency” for Bibi’s political survival.
Well all too true, Z. As an established pattern I’d say you’re spot on as usual. What is it now? 10 years of dissidence and rabble rousing for you now? It’s had its affect: I am hearing old geriatrics and clueless grillers that now sound more like you – than you do!!! The word is getting out, everyone is noticing the patterns except the lunatics and retards, and the jews know it and are shitting bricks. Patterns hold until they break.We can’t keep doing this. I am not ready to commit to an opinion on the future yet. Trump loves… Read more »
Frankly, all of these dam’ wars bore the hell outta me.
People pontificating about war is as boring as them telling you about their dreams—because that’s what they’re doing.
Well this is positive in it’s own right.
In the old days, when a President decided on war, he would address the nation and explain the reasons. Both the Bushes did that. It was still understood that war is not undertaken lightly, and that the general public deserved to hear an argument, some rationale, that bore a relationship to the national interest. And let’s admit it, a lot of us here fell for it in those halcyon days when we thought we were the good guys… They don’t even bother nowadays. All the proxy warfare with Russia through Ukraine – despite its terrifying ramifications – never explained, never… Read more »
Short-termism is a hard-wired feature of American culture – and has been for decades. Having worked with expat American corporate managers, one of the things that lands on Day One is a high-speed, low-drag dynamism that is considered a prized feature, not a bug. “Get ‘er done by close of business!” is their mantra. Reflective thinking, deep strategy and cultivating the Art of the Long View is not their forte – hell, these practices are considered incapacities, symptoms of indecisiveness. Once you understand this endearing quality, it’s possible to run rings around Billy-Bob Hardass-Tablethumper. Just string things along, let the… Read more »
I guess we have our answer about how Trump was allowed to “win” the presidency. Block all domestic reforms with the kritarch layer, have congressional Israeli puppets sit on their hands, and get him to shovel our children and future into the insatiable Israeli furnace. There is no America to save. At least 90% of the population opposes being Israel’s murder machine yet again, probably 50% are ready to do so using whatever means they have to. I think we are about to see what happens in a country with something like 400 million rifles in private hands and the… Read more »
Hmmm …. Ayatollah of both Rock and Rollah, Khamenei, gave a speech warning the US that it will never surrender, and that the US faces total destruction if it helps Israel. I am getting weird Khadaffi “Line of Death” vibes, or Baghdad Bob. Khamenei admitted Iran was caught off guard. There have been repeated massive security breaches for years by the Israelis, to the point where the Security Forces seem to be very compromised in some way. Senior Leadership (what remains) must be concerned that lower ranks might be so frustrated that they make a deal with Israelis to become… Read more »
sink a few tankers in the straits will clog it up. but it’s shore-to-ship missiles that will really inhibit traffic.
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Trump has to be careful to avoid spreading our resources too thinly. We can’t be involved in every war. Right now, Iran is the bigger problem. Taking out Khomeini could lead to bigger problems, like who or what will replace his regime? It seems bunker busters are the best way, and it needs to be done ASAP.
Best-case scenario all round is probably a military strongman like Sisi in Egypt. Remember how Obama/Kerry sorted that one out after the Durka-Durka Spring got out of hand?