The first week of May has brought fresh worries that the war in Ukraine will lead to the third and final world war. On Twitter, “WW3” has been trending on and off as various rumors hit the system. Currently, the driver is statements from Russia that any attacks on Russia by Western troops operating in Ukraine will be viewed as an attack by that country on Russia, which means war. Russia also announced that she will be testing tactical nuclear weapons to underscore the point.
To understand what is happening we have to go back to the big funding bill passed by Congress at the end of April. The political class in Europe and the United States came away thinking this would turn the tide, but soon learned that the bill was about paying off creditors, not funding new weapons. There are no new weapons to send, at least not until after the November elections. The $60 billion was about paying the MIC and the bankers for money invested in Project Ukraine.
Of course, there are events on the battlefield. The Russians have broken through the center of Ukrainian defenses in a major way. All along the line of contact the Ukrainians are on the backfoot, but in the center they are at risk of collapse. The Russians managed to do this without committing large numbers of troops. It is assumed they will now commit to exploiting this gap in the Ukrainian lines with the half million men they have in reserve, waiting for better weather.
In light of these two factors, the Europeans have been making noises about introducing troops into Ukraine. The truth is, NATO has had people in Ukraine for ten years and ramped up their presence at the start of the war. These have been contractors or government employees operating as contractors. Some contractors just happen to employ former soldiers of NATO countries. Even so, it is enough of a fig leaf for the Russians to pretend they are not NATO soldiers.
Then there is the rumor that the French Foreign Legion was dispatched to Ukraine and possibly hit by Russian missiles. Regime media was dispatched to deny this claim, which means it is most certainly true. While technically not French troops, it is unclear if the Russians will buy it. They summoned the French and British ambassadors to repeat what has been said in the past, which is any attacks on Russia by troops from these countries will result in retaliation on these countries.
The final piece of the puzzle is Victory Day. This is when the Russian people celebrate their victory over the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War. Rumors have been swirling that Ukraine, with help from Britain and France, will launch attacks on Crimea as a way to embarrass Putin this week. For a week, NATO surveillance drones have been in the area and Ukraine has been sending drones to map Russian radar. The rumor is this is in preparation for a massive attack on the Kerch bridge.
The fact is the only way the Ukrainians can attack this bridge is by using NATO missiles like the British Storm Shadow or French Scalp. These would have to be launched in large numbers along with other missiles and drones. The Ukrainians lack the expertise to operate these weapons, so it means they will be operated by British and French personnel, either officially or unofficially. The Russians know this, as they recorded the Germans discussing this over the winter.
Put all of this together and you have a scenario in which NATO is growing desperate over what is happening on the battlefield and Russia is losing patience with these pipsqueak countries doing the bidding of the neocons in Washington. From the perspective of Russia, the only reason NATO is not coming to the table with a deal is they just want to see as many Russians die as possible or they are plotting an invasion after the November elections.
Despite the growing desperation in Europe, there remains this weird delusion about Russia that is at the root of these escalations. Since the start of the war, it has been assumed that at some point the Russians will blink. For three years NATO has upped the ante in terms of weapons and rhetoric, always assuming that this new wonder weapon or new threat will cause the Russians to back down. This never happens, but the belief remains unshakable.
The question is what happens when the Ukraine army begins to collapse? The signs are everywhere right now. Elite units are refusing to fight. There have been mass surrenders of newly deployed conscript units. The ideological units now spend their time making stylish videos, rather than fighting. The Russians are preparing for major summer offensives, which may cause the line of defense to collapse. This would leave the Ukraine army broken into pieces.
When the unthinkable begins to be reality, what will happen to that unshakable confidence that all it takes is one more escalation? Can the West accept defeat in Ukraine, or will they have no choice but to go bigger? The evidence to this point suggests they will think they have no choice but to go bigger, maybe declaring a no fly zone over Western Ukraine or introducing troops to guard the Dnieper. Maybe they take control of Odessa and dare the Russians to attack.
One glimmer of hope for those who do not want to see the world end in nuclear annihilation is Chinese ruler Xi Jinping Ping visiting Europe. His first stop was France to flatter the megalomaniacal Macron. The point of Xi’s trip is to convince the Europeans that their interests lie in finding a settlement with Russia. Making Macron the first visit suggests the Chinese know he is a simpleton who is easily flattered, but also the driving force for escalation in Ukraine.
What the Chinese could offer the Europeans is a way out of the trap they have built for themselves with the Russians. They can get to pretend to be important figures by cutting a deal with China to end the war in Ukraine. Of course, this would mean breaking with Washington, so it is a long shot. Maybe it is enough to get Macron to retreat on the escalatory rhetoric. That could be enough to prevent another round of escalation and avert the end of the world.
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