The 2023 Predictions

Posted on December 30, 2022 by thezman

Predictions for the new year are a tradition in the content creation world, but it seems like the tradition is fading. The obvious reason is the zombies in the mass media are no longer capable of independent thought. If your job is to repeat what you are told, making predictions is a very dangerous game. That and you run the risk of accidentally noticing something that is forbidden. Predictions are about trends and noticing those is a high crime these days, so predictions are frowned upon.

The other reason this tradition is fading is America is no longer an optimistic society, so making predictions is a bit grim. Predicting that Americans will reach Mars in the next decade is fun and exciting. Predicting that the economy will continue to crumble due to mass piracy by the ruling class is depressing. Even for those on this side of the divide, looking into the abyss is not a lot of fun. That said, it is a tradition and traditions must be maintained even in the worst of times.

With that in mind, let us get right into it. The economy in Europe will continue to crumble in 2023, with energy concerns reaching critical mass. They stocked up on Russian gas to make it through this winter, but that stock is gone and the replacement will be significantly more expensive going forward. The goofy oil price cap will begin to warp the market, driving prices up in Europe, but down in Asia. This will accelerate the de-industrialization of Europe creating an economic panic by the autumn.

In the U.S., inflation will remain stubbornly high, especially as de-dollarization of the energy markets picks up steam. The Fed will have no choice but to shift from the Arthur Burns strategy to the Paul Volker strategy. Higher energy costs and China’s aggressive currency policies will force the Fed to remove dollars from the system in a far more aggressive fashion than in 2022. Mortgage rates will break the nine percent barrier in the fall as the economy dips into recession…

Cozy TV gets de-platformed from the internet…

On the political front, the prosecutor assigned to investigate Trump hits him with some spurious charges, in order to keep Trump viable. The regime thinks he is their best bet at avoiding a change in figure head. The charges will lack seriousness, thus turning Trump into a martyr for the base. Meanwhile, the Republican leadership rallies around Tim Scott as their anti-Trump option. They think their voters will abandon Trump if the option is a magical black man.

As the economy gets worse, the rumblings about a primary challenge to Biden will grow louder, especially as things in Ukraine fall apart. All of the pundits will swear that Biden will choose to step aside, but instead he will announce that he intends to run for another term, even though he has no idea where he is most of the time. At this point, even the dumbest Democratic voter will start to realize that our elections are just theater and they have no bearing on public policy…

Kanye West files for bankruptcy…

The crypto market will continue to erode as it becomes clear that the novelty has passed and there will not be another rally. The fact is the only use of crypto is to get around government policy. It is simply a way to make real money disappear and then reappear somewhere else without the government knowing about it. Bitcoin will drop below $10,000 by the summer and there will be talk about the entire space returning to its roots as a tool of the underground economy…

I will finish my book…

By the late spring, it becomes clear that the Ukrainian army cannot continue and the West has run out of weapons for them. This will force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from the Donbass. Simultaneously, NATO sends “advisers” into Western Ukraine, under the pretext of stemming the flow of refugees into the rest of Europe. These “advisors” will be mostly Polish military. By autumn, the Poles will be talking about annexing Ukrainian lands that were once part of Poland.

This triggers a crisis in Europe as it will open a long suppressed discussion about the borders drawn after WW2. The Germans will start talking about lands they lost to Poland after the war. The Hungarians will make their own claims in Ukraine. Romania will make is claims on Moldova/Transnistria. Meanwhile, the Balkans will get hot as all of the old claims come to a boil. Meanwhile, the Russians will turn their newly acquired territories into a heavily fortified buffer between West and East.

All of this calls into question the trillions spent on the Military Industrial Complex over the last thirty years. People start to notice that the weapons industry has been charging billions for machines that are largely useless against an opponent that can fight back and impossible to produce in the volumes required of a real conflict. The failure in Ukraine will expose the fact that the American military machine is just another grift in a society based on the greater fool theory…

Musk turns Twitter back over to the censors and moves onto some new hobby…

Joe Biden gives a speech in favor of human sacrifice. This sounds ridiculous, but the coordinated effort by the managerial elite in favor of the mutilation of children is one small step from ritual human sacrifice. Canada is telling people to kill themselves, so that will be in America soon. Put the two together and you can see how turning euthanasia into a new right is the logical end. Given how the ruling class sacralizes their fetishes, logic says they will be promoting human sacrifice soon…

The Alex Jones case runs into an “enterprising” judge who will craft a novel way around the legal protections Jones plans to use to guard his assets. The judge will find a way for the plaintiffs to do a Tom Metzger on Jones, stripping him of all of his assets and the commercial rights to his own name. The Alex Jones show will become the property of the skeevy weirdos suing him. Jones will be made penniless and no one in the mainstream media will question it.

Meanwhile Sam Bankman-Fried will get time served and a small fine for his role in the FTX scheme. This may sound crazy, but our legal system is this corrupt. He and the rest of the perverts that ran the operation will be given a free pass, as long as they keep their mouths shut about who they bribed and for what purpose. Unlike Bernie Madoff, who robbed important people, Bankman mostly robbed Dirt People, so the important people will give him and his friends a pass…

The Oracle of Lagos will become the Oracle of Appalachia…

Happy New Year!

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2022 In Review

Posted on December 29, 2022 by thezman

Note: For those looking for a direct response to Michael Anton’s unprovoked attack on me can find it behind it behind the green door. I posted it there as having a sub should have value beyond extra content. You can sign up at SubscribeStar or Substack.

The one sure way to look like a genius when making predictions is to say the upcoming year will make the closing year look relatively calm. The reason is that recency bias works in favor of such a prediction. Everyone thinks now is crazier than the past, because they mostly forgot about how they felt in the past. The other reason it works in this age is things are getting increasingly weird.

That is one I can put in the win column. The theme to last year’s predictions was that things would get crazier and that is objectively true. While I did not specifically call Kanye West becoming America’s leading white nationalist, the mere fact that it happened confirms that we have reached a new level of crazy. We do not live in interesting times. We live in an age of general lunacy.

This cuts both ways. In an age of lunacy, you feel free to make bold improbable predictions about what comes next, because why not? My call on Biden was crazy but having a dementia patient in the White House is crazier still. Why not have a palace coup to remove him and the DMV lady? That turned out to be all wrong as Biden and DMV lady seem to be permanent fixtures now.

I got the international scene wrong as well, mostly because I did not go anywhere near bold enough in my predictions. I always underestimate the lunacy of the neocons, mostly because normal people never fully grasp evil. It turns out to have been a wackier year internationally than I thought was possible. In this regard, 2022 will be remembered as a momentous year for the world.

I also got the midterms wrong, at least partially wrong. I thought I was going out on a limb with that one, but it turned out to be too cautious. I thought demographics and disgust would begin to catch up with the Republicans, but not as quickly as it seems to be happening. Turnout took a hit in 2022 compared to previous midterms and it was almost all on the Republican side of things.

With regards to elections, 2022 may go down as the year when people internalized the wholesale corruption in the system. Among normal people it is now assumed that our elections are rigged. Some take it too far and there are the grifters like Dinesh D’Souza trying to monetize the cynicism, but most normal people now accept that our elections are no longer on the level. That is not a small thing.

Probably the biggest miss for the year was my predictions for myself. I did not escape Lagos and I did not finish my book. It was a year of big changes and those changes threw a wrench in my plans. When you have a tight schedule, change almost always means a deleterious disruption in the work schedule. My early prediction for next year is that I will remain behind on everything.

On the positive side of things, I did get the economics right. I hit the Bitcoin and equities markets calls pretty much on the nose, so to speak. I said Bitcoin would lose 50% of its value and it lost a bit more than that over the year. I was a little aggressive on the stock market, but that was due to de-dollarization globally. Those dollars have to go somewhere so they went into stocks late in the year.

Probably the best call of the year was the continued decline of Conservative Inc. and its media organs. This is something not getting a ton of attention, but official conservatism is on its way to the dustbin of history. When Claremont grandees are referencing dissident writers, you know that behind the scenes there is a great deal of handwringing about what is happening among the Dirt People.

The same can be said for the media as a whole. It is looking like Donald Trump was to the media what the compact disc was for music. People repurchased their music inventory on the new format, which masked the real decline in the market. The same was true of Trump. People paid attention to the media because he was at war with the media, but now that he is gone, interest in mass media has collapsed.

Every year, the biggest misses in the prediction game are the things that happened which no one imagined happening. No one saw Ukraine becoming a global struggle to keep the American empire alive well past its expiry date. Some predicted war in Ukraine and some even thought it would carry on for a while, but no one saw the great proxy war for the survival of the American empire as a result.

Similarly, no one saw the Twitter fiasco coming. Even now, no one is noting the elite war on Elon Musk for his apostacy. They have been attacking the value of his companies in an effort to punish him for his Twitter takeover. Of course, no one thought that an advocate for child molestation would turn out to be their chief censor. No one thought the FBI was integrated into Twitter either.

That may be the biggest miss of 2022. Most American have now learned that there is a secret police in America and they spend most of their time spying on Americans and manipulating what they see and hear. When establishment figures like Victor Davis Hanson are shocked by what has been revealed about the FBI, you know we have turned some important corner in the life of the country.

In the end, it was a strange year. Maybe it will be viewed as a pivotal year or simply part of a pivotal moment that started in 2015 when Trump came down the escalator. The one thing we can be sure about is 2023 will be even stranger than 2022. The trick is in imagining something that seems impossible today, and then think about how it could become normalized by this time next year.

Is American Conservatism Possible?

Posted on December 28, 2022 by thezman

In America, Right and Left are relative terms in that the Right is defined by its relationship with the Left. While the Left flits from novelty to novelty, the Right shouts, “please slow down” while following it around. As Robert Lewis Dabney put it a century ago, “American conservatism is merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition.” His observation has remained true to this day. It is why yesterday’s radical idea is today’s conservative principle.

This is not true in other parts of the world. Radicalism exists, but it throws itself against the defenses of tradition and history. It may break down those walls, as we see in Europe, but the contours of the Right remain in place. European conservatism is the appeal to hierarchy, tradition and permanence. Joseph de Maistre would be shocked by modern Europe, but he would still be able to make out the borders that define the modern conservative forces of Europe.

The opposite is true in America. Take someone from the founding generation and transport him into the middle of the 19th century and he would recognize the forces of radicalism quite easily. After all, the radical abolitionist would look strikingly familiar, having come from the same stock. Transport that man further into time and he would recognize the New England roots of the progressive. Conservatism, on the other hand, would make no sense to him in any age.

That is the problem for conservatives. The rest of the world has traditions, habits of mind and institutions with roots into the mists of time. America is a young society, so the ancient customs are not all that ancient. Most of those were borrowed from Europe during the colonial period. Others were trampled under the hoofs of one prior radical pogrom or another. Modern conservatives are left to conjure an authority due to a lack of tradition and history.

You can see the dilemma here in this speech Michael Anton delivered to Hillsdale College on the end of conservatism and the beginning of a new politics. Anton is part of a project to build a “new” conservatism. Like the “old” conservatism, his starting point is Lincoln and the “second founding” as imagined by Harry Jaffa. Note also that the person introducing Anton is careful to insert the Athens and Jerusalem line into his remarks, signaling his membership in the cult of Jaffa.

The cult of Jaffa and Lincolnism has been discussed at length here and other places, so there is no need to go over it again. Of interest here is the selection of Lincoln as the Abraham of modern conservatism. This is a bit like picking Karl Marx as your starting point for German conservatism. In his time, Lincoln was a radical and not just the bourgeois coffee house variety. He was willing to kill as many of his fellow citizens as needed to impose his radical vision on the country.

The “new right” would no doubt dispute that characterization of Lincoln, but you cannot place Lincoln on the Right during his age. Abolitionism was a radical idea, one that the radicals of the founding generation rejected. John Adams opposed the idea on the grounds that it was worse that slavery. Like many of his generation, he personally opposed slavery, but he understood the danger posed by the abolitionists. Adams would have viewed Lincoln as a dangerous fanatic.

Of course, in his own time Adams was a dangerous fanatic. The people trying to form up a new conservatism love waving around the Declaration of Independence, but that was the most radical document produced to that point. In fact, the entire founding of the United States was a great experiment in radical politics. It is not an accident that America is often called an experiment. The very basis of America is the praxis of radical thought and it continues to this day.

The truth is America has never had much to work with for anyone trying to create a genuine conservatism, because America lacks the history and traditions that would naturally anchor conservatism. Compounding it is that the limited history and traditions that are available are nothing but a long journal of one radical experiment after another in the vain hope of creating that city on a hill John Winthrop imagined when he and his fellow fanatics landed in the New World.

This lack of necessary ingredients with which to fashion a genuine conservatism in America is probably why conservatism has been a failure. When you are reduced to conjuring a novel history in support of novel ideas, as we see with the current “new right” experiment, all you are really doing is engaging in your own form of radicalism, just without the force of authority enjoyed by the Left. Conservatism becomes nothing more than a parlor game for outsiders.

This is why any effort to produce a genuine alternative to the prevailing orthodoxy needs to start with an honest inventory of reality. What can be produced from the materials at hand to create something that can resist the acid of liberalism? The answer cannot lie within the liberal tradition. To go back to 1950, 1850 or 1750 looking for answers to the problems created in those times inevitably means explaining away the defects of liberalism in order to preserve it.

The place to start with fashioning an alternative to the prevailing orthodoxy is not in 1950, 1850 or 1750, but in 2050. Given the current demographic trends, imagine a continent filled with versions of Orania and then contemplate the ideology of a people who can maintain it. This is one lesson we can take from the founders. They tried to fashion a practical solution for their people at the time. The next founding will have to do the same thing, but for a different people.

The Marx Of America

Posted on December 27, 2022 by thezman

Note: Henrik and Lana of Red Ice need some help with medical bills. Their new born needed almost two week in the ICU. Donate here.

There are men who are remembered for what they did. There are men who are remembered for what they said. Then there are men who are remembered for who they have influenced or the chain events touched off by them. This last group is unique for the simple reason it is hard to say exactly why they are remembered. They are history’s version of the popular figure who is famous for being famous. One such example is the late philosopher, Leo Strauss.

That last sentence provides a clue as to why this mediocre philosopher and historian is a figure who looms large of contemporary politics. Serious students of philosophy take exception to calling Strauss a philosopher. Historians dismiss him outright. Students of Greek philosophy roll their eyes when they the man’s name. Even his followers will spend hours debating how to properly label the man. Despite this lack of distinction, Leo Strauss is an important figure in our politics.

For those looking for an accessible explainer on Leo Strauss and his work, Paul Gottfried’s book, Leo Strauss and the Conservative Movement in America is a straight forward summary and analysis of the man and his work. For those looking for an even shorter introduction to the topic, here is a good review of the book. At the end of that review, the reviewer touches on the central question of Strauss. Why does this mediocre academic cast such a long shadow?

The main reason anyone talks about Strauss is that his followers have been central to American politics for half a century. His most famous acolyte was Harry Jaffa, who created the cult of Lincoln that still animates conventional conservatism. His reimagining of American history allowed contemporary conservatives to get to the left of their opponents on the issue of race. It is why the modern conservative cannot shut up about Abraham Lincoln. He is their get out jail free card.

That does not explain why we have lots of middlebrow intellectuals announcing themselves as Straussians rather than Jaffians. Modern conservatism owes far more to Jaffa than Strauss, but the conservative intellectual space is littered with people flying the flag of Leo Strauss. Additionally, there are flavors of Straussianism, as in the East Coast Straussians and the West Coast Straussians. What is so magical about this man that half a century after his death he still casts a shadow?

This is where Marx comes into the picture. Like Strauss, Marx was a mediocre intellectual, but he cast a huge shadow. There were many smart men working the communist and socialist circuits in the 19th century, many smarter and more reasonable than Marx, but it was Marx who towered over the rest. Despite having been wrong about pretty much everything, Karl Marx remains a respected thinker and philosopher on the Left.

One reason Marx rose above the rest was that he provided intellectual authority to the socialist movement. His theory of history turned a collection of moral preferences into scientific fact, which gave the believers an unquestionable authority upon which to base their economic and political claims. To this day we hear people on the so-called Left claim that they are on the right side of history. This means their opponents are on the wrong side of history, so they can be dismissed.

Similarly, the Straussian method provides the believer with a set of tools to instantly create the needed authority for their normative claims. Strauss taught that you must learn the true intent of a writer. The Straussian, of course, has the special skill to see through the esoteric writing of genuine philosophers, who out of necessity always cloak their real meaning from the casual reader. Strauss allows his followers to divine the real meaning of historical texts.

At first this does not sound like much, but it allowed Harry Jaffa to tease out the real thoughts of the Founders, which to that point had been called the Framers, because they wrote the text of the Constitution. Jaffa claimed that their real thoughts were contained in the Declaration. From that he could turn the Founders into Moses and Lincoln into Joshua. The former led his people out of bondage, but not into the Promised Land, while the latter completed the journey.

That is a clever trick, but as Gottfried noted, this was not simply for the amusement of bored intellectuals, but part of a political strategy. By casting Lincoln as the real founder of the American republic, conservatives, who were clustered in the Republican party, could claim him as their own. Not only does the “great emancipator” become a shield against the charge of racism, but he also becomes a license to turn egalitarianism and the blank slate into conservative principles.

That is a major appeal of Strauss. His method provides a set of tools for rhetorical combat within practical politics. The Straussian method allows the user to flit from one tine of Hume’s fork to the other. They can conflate those things that are axiomatically true with those things that are contingently true. Decorated with their own interpretations of Plato and Aristotle, gratuitous assertions become immutable fact. These tools let the users win the debate, rather than reveal important truths.

Probably the main appeal of Strauss is the same as for Marx. For the initiate, the system of thought provides a framework to answer every question. This in turn elevates the believer’s sense of self. When you are on the right side of history, you inevitably are filled with confidence. When you can divine the intent of the great minds and use this secret knowledge against your opponents, you become a god. The appeal in both cases is spiritual, not intellectual.

The comparison between Marx and Strauss works because of the people who were most attracted to the two men. The people who rallied to Marxism were not the urban proletariat, but the urban bourgeois intellectuals. Similarly, those rallying to Strauss are not highbrow political thinkers. His appeal is to the middlebrow bourgeois intellectuals that grow like a fungus on the modern age. Both provided a purpose to idle men without an obvious role in life.

Ideas have consequences and bad ideas have bad consequences. That should be the lesson of Marxism. Leo Strauss was a clever man, for sure, but his bad ideas have given us a half century of political agitation and subterfuge. One would think the embarrassing catastrophe that was the Bush presidency would have relegated Strauss and his followers to the dustbin of history, but when you are untethered from facts and reason, the facts never get in the way of your next argument.

The Price Of Sophistry

Posted on December 26, 2022 by thezman

In modern usage, the terms sophism and sophistry are used interchangeably with “inaccurate” or “deliberately misleading.” A sophist is someone who relies upon fallacious arguments or reasoning to win a debate. Someone can be accused of sophistry because they are too stupid to see the flaws in their reasoning. Other times they are accused of deliberately misleading arguments. The motivation is malice rather than stupidity or carelessness.

This negative view of sophistry was not always so. We get the word from the Greeks who used the word to mean teacher. A sophist hired himself out to rich families to instruct their sons in philosophy, math, rhetoric and music. The ability to debate in public was an important skill for an ambitious Athenian, so educating your children to be convincing orators was a primary goal of rich parents. A good sophist was one who was good at making convincing arguments.

Our negative view of this also comes from the Greeks. The reason we know about Socrates is we have the writings of Plato, who tells us Socrates was opposed to sophistry in his day. He thought arguments had to be logically sound and factually accurate, rather than just convincing. Of course, Socrates was forced to drink poison by the Athenians, because he was condemned for undermining public virtue. It turns out that the truth does not always set you free.

The reason any of this matters is that in democratic societies, there is a tension between these same two claims. On the one hand, winning the crowd is vital to democratic politics and the marketplace. This was true in ancient Athens and it is true on social media today. On the other hand, we are a society that believes deliberate deception is wrong, so factual accuracy is important. Winning the crowd through deceptive means is viewed as immoral.

This tension has been at the heart of mainstream conservative politics. One camp, the Straussians, think that winning the argument, which in politics means winning elections, is all that matters. The alternative camp insists that being right is what matters, even if it is not always popular. The former camp is correct that the goal of politics in a democratic system is to win elections, but the other side is also right that winning elections means nothing if the result is bad policy.

This conflict is at the heart of this back and forth between Michael Anton and Paul Gottfried over natural rights and traditionalism. Anton is a Straussian so he is therefore unencumbered by logic and factual accuracy. He simply wants to convince people that a society rooted in natural rights is the only choice, if America is going to hold together for much longer. Gottfried and others point out that natural rights do no exist and therefore they cannot be a foundation for anything.

What you see in the back and forth is that Gottfried in his short responses is describing things with as much accuracy as possible. He makes a descriptive claim, while Anton, in his lengthy responses, makes prescriptive claims. One side describes things as they are, while the other side argues for how they should be. Anton believes he is in the right because his proposition would solve the problem of governing a majority-minority society, while Gottfried is right because he is factually correct.

This conflict between the descriptive and the prescriptive is turning up in the dissident critique of the conservative movement. Conservatives argue that they are upholding the constitution and the natural rights tradition in America. Dissidents point out that no matter how elegant the arguments are in favor of conservatism and its natural rights foundation, the results, to this point, have been disastrous. In other words, the facts contradict the claims, no matter their intent.

The shadow over all of this, of course, is the purging of the paleocons from conservatism by the neocons and their Straussian enablers. Free from facts and reason, the winners in that struggle were able to conjure the history they needed to support their prescriptive claims, which solved a problem for conservatives. Like a python, they swallowed the Civil Rights Movement whole and digested it into their theories of the founding and their natural rights arguments.

That bit of history is what hangs over the back and forth between Gottfried and Anton and it is what hangs over the dissident critique of conservatism. The neocons and their Straussian enablers won the argument, but to what end? What was the point of winning the argument if the result was the present catastrophe? Anton would like to reframe this as the old neocon versus paleocon dispute, but no amount of words can conceal the elephant in the room. His side won the battle and lost the war.

In the end, this is the lesson of sophistry. It can only flourish in a culture that sees winning the argument as an end in itself. This is the curse of democracy, which brought down ancient Athens and is bringing down the New Athens. The truth is like a corpse in that it can never be truly concealed. The sophists think they can weigh the truth down with words, but like the body bobbing to the surface after the spring thaw, the truth eventually reemerges into the life of a society.

That truth in the current crisis is that the clever arguments and complex logical constructs of the last half century contained no truth value. The sophist of our age profited greatly from their arguments, but the result is the ungovernable mess that is modern America. Like Havel’s green grocer, we must now live in the truth which means shedding the sophistry that has led us to the present catastrophe. The truth may not set us free, but it will keep us from being erased from the book of life.

One Big FTX

Posted on December 23, 2022 by thezman

Regimeology is not just the art of interpreting the official pronouncements from the managerial elite, but it is also for interpreting their actions. Nothing they say can ever be accepted at face value, so nothing they do is on the level either. It is all signaling back and forth to communicate between nodes of the collective. If the regime happens to do something useful for the people, it is a happy accident. Most of what they do is about the internal dynamics of the regime.

The Sam Bankman-Fried story is a good example. At this point everyone understands that this is not a corporate financial scandal. There is little chance that the sophisticated people involved with this guy and his partners were unaware of the nature of his business. The entertainment people hired to shill for the company had no idea, as hey are stupid people, but the sharps putting important people in touch with this weird looking goblin of a man were not fooled.

The one thing we know is it was a money laundering operation to move cash into the pockets of politicians and connected people in the regime. To no one’s surprise, there is a Ukraine angle here. Apparently, Ukraine was taking money handed over by Washington and putting some of it into crypto accounts on the FTX exchange, allegedly to pay their own people. The absurdity of that claim is obvious. Most likely it was quietly shifted to other accounts and ended up in other pockets.

They say you cannot teach an old dog new tricks, but there is nothing that says you cannot teach a new dog old tricks. The heart of the issue is one of the oldest tricks in democratic politics. The politician makes a deal with a favored vendor, who then hires friends and relatives of the politician. Some portion of their salary ends up as expensive gifts to the politician. Alternatively, the vendor rewards the politicians with gobs of campaign cash.

In this case, that old political grift was updated to the digital age. Ukraine put funds into the FTX exchange, which Sam Bankman-Fried then used to buy friends in Washington, making sure those friends were friends of Ukraine. Those friends then made sure Ukraine was getting as much cash as possible. Given that so much was happening in crypto, no one was going to try and follow the money. As long as FTX stayed solvent, his scam could go on forever. Whoopsie!

Of course, we will never know where the money went as the regime sent in one of their best fixers to handle the liquidation of FTX. John J. Ray III is no doubt a competent and honest man, but he is being paid one thousand dollars an hour to clean up the mess, so he is not going to be biting the hand that feeds him. You read that right. He is billing one thousand dollars per hour for his services. The one guy who is assured of getting rich off FTX will be the man liquidating its remaining assets.

They can scrub the books and make sure the content creators in the media tell the right story, but that still leaves the main players. The “polycule” that was running this scam is too colorful to ignore. If these people looked like a Chuck Schumer family photo, they could possibly get a pass, but this group is simply too absurd. The two principles, Bankman-Fried and Caroline Ellison, the woman who looks like a turtle, are household names now, so the regime has to deal with them.

That is where regimeology comes into play. The Clinton crime family sent Jamie Gorelick into work with Turtle Girl. Gorelick, for those too young or depressed to remember the 1990’s, was the Vice Chairman of Fannie Mae, which she ran into bankruptcy, while creating the mortgage crisis. She walked away from the disaster with close to $30 million. Now she is the lawyer for Turtle Girl, who did to FTX what Gorelick did to the mortgage industry.

The reason they sent in Gorelick is to make sure their interests are protected, which probably means they helped her get a deal with the Feds. She keeps her mouth shut about the family business and she avoids a long prison sentence. That helps the Feds shape the charges against Bankman-Fried in such a way that leaves the Clinton family business out of the courtroom. Maybe it helps Mr. Bankman-Fried recall specific shenanigans with enemies of the family.

The fact that they let him out on bond, rather than send him to Epstein’s old holding cell, suggests he is playing ball. Most likely he had to agree to not do anymore media events until his case is resolved. The one thing everyone in the regime can agree upon is they do not want this guy running his mouth in public. On the other hand, if he suddenly commits suicide or decides to get his fifth Covid booster, then we can assume the regime did not want to roll the dice with him.

Of course, like all of the Ukraine grifting, we will never get an honest accounting of what happened with this caper. The only thing we can know is the regime is getting reckless, because they simply do not care enough to be careful. Now that we are fortified for democracy, they can do as they please. As long as the economy keeps chugging along and there is no major crisis, they can steal as much as they can carry. America is one big FTX now. What could go wrong?

An Orgy Of Self-Satisfaction

Posted on December 22, 2022 by thezman

Note: This being the time of year when people feel generous, you may be thinking about sending a few bucks to a worthy cause. If you are an HBD fan or a supporter of academic integrity, you should consider kicking in a few bucks to the Bryan Pesta fundraiser that you can learn more about here.

A common theme on this side of the great divide is the growing perception gap between the people in the regime that rules over the Global American Empire and the people who are trapped inside that empire. The relationship between the ruled and their rulers is becoming two black boxes. The people see their rulers perform, but why they are doing what they are doing makes little sense. The rulers look over the walls and see nothing but monsters lying in wait for them.

This growing disconnect was on display in the Imperial Capital, when the dictator of Ukraine arrived to a hero’s welcome. Dictator is not a word the regime members use, even though it is the correct title. Zelensky rules with an iron fist, throwing critics into dungeons and terrorizing the people into submission. The excuse is the war, but democratic countries still hold elections in times of crisis. Tyrants suspend the rule of law when it suits their interests.

For most Americans, Ukraine is a weird place far away that has no bearing on their lives, because it should have no bearing on their lives. Most Americans feel for the common people whose lives are ruined by the war. Most American would prefer it if their government did something to end the conflict. In fact, it is safe to say that Americans wish their government were the global peacemaker. That would be something that could genuinely unite a very divided country.

Otherwise, the typical American has no interest in this war. If provided the facts, they would be appalled at the actions of their government. The Ukrainians took delivery of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) from American and immediately used them to target residential areas of the Donbas. War is always an ugly business and brother wars are the worst in this regard. Even so, the typical American would want nothing to do with the deliberate targeting of civilians.

The fact is, the typical American, regardless of political affiliation, would wholeheartedly agree with John Quincy Adams when he said “Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions, and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”

Anyone living in the world of normal Americans knows this. Despite this, the regime put on a prime time show in which the dictator of Ukraine, dressed like an extra from bad war movie, gave a weird speech to Congress. In that speech he demanded more money from the average American and gave the strong impression that he thinks the average American is not pulling his weight in terms of sacrificing for a country he cannot locate on a map.

What made the spectacle grotesque was the fawning over this belligerent midget by the regime leaders. It was a vulgar display of the disconnect that now exists between the regime and the people. Mitch McConnell came out and said that his number one priority, to the exclusion of all else, is shoveling untold billions into the rat hole that is the war in Ukraine. Imagine being a guy struggling to pay his rent in Kentucky having to listen to that lecture.

What makes the whole thing revolting to the average person is that everyone knows much of the money is being stolen. Even though the FBI has been working long hours to suppress the facts of the Hunter Biden laptop, the typical American knows the Biden family is as crooked as a ram’s horn. They know all of these people are corrupt, yet they have to watch these people celebrate their alleged moral purity over shoveling more cash into the Ukraine money laundering machine.

In other words, the growing gap between the regime and the people is not simply a gap in understanding or a gap in priorities. It is a moral gap. Every day the people inside the regime imagine themselves on higher moral ground than the day before, while the people looking on see their leaders sinking into a swamp of moral depravity. It is not just that there is a gap, but that the gap is rapidly widening. Each new outrage by the freaks of the regime lowers their standing with the people.

Few commentators have noticed the parallel between Washington’s support for Ukraine and the support for Vietnam sixty years ago. It is a good comparison because the cause is the same. The people running Vietnam policy were every bit as deluded about their intelligence as the people running Ukraine policy. In fact, Victoria Nuland and the rest of the Kagan cult are setting new standards for Dunning-Kruger. Mx. Nuland is an unfathomably stupid woman.

The important parallel is deeper than just shared stupidity. Vietnam undermined the trust people had in their rulers to the point where serious people became concerned that the country was headed for a breakup. That was in a relatively homogenous and prosperous country. Today’s America is an irreconcilable collection of fractious and deracinated people with no reason to hang together other than convenience and fear of an increasingly hostile ruling class.

If the economic chickens come home to roost in 2023 as the economic experts tell us, this erosion of trust and respect for the regime will quickly become a crisis. People may look back at this shameful orgy of self-satisfaction, at the expense of the people, as a tipping point in the relationship between the regime and the people. Watching that show, it would take a heart of stone not to hate these people. It was the point when even the most faithful civic nationalist began to hate.

The Gracchi Principle

Posted on December 21, 2022 by thezman

Note: This is the time of year to be generous to those in need, so if you are looking for a place to give, here is an option. Most certainly know the story, but for those who do not, here is the background.

A feature of a ruling elite in decline is that they no longer respect the rules they have in place to govern their own behavior. Every society has a ruling class and within that ruling class there is competition. Despite what the natural rights proponents argue, there is a natural desire for hierarchy. Some people want to be at the top, while others aim a bit lower. Humans will compete for positions on the status tree in every form of human organization.

That is why ruling elites need rules. These rules are about governing the natural competition that will exist inside the ruling class. These rules also govern how one can enter the ruling class and how one can be expelled. As is true of all human organizations, the first question every ruling class must answer is “who are we?” and the answer to that question is a set of rules that define who is in, how you get in and how you remain in the ruling class.

In a healthy ruling class, as with any healthy human organization, the rules are more of a state of mind than a written set of laws. The early Roman republic had rules and those rules were the spirit that animated the republic. Brutus did not have to be told the rules, with regards to his sons actions in the Tarquinian conspiracy. He stood and watched stoically as his sons were executed for their crimes against the republic, thus making Brutus the ever lasting symbol of republican virtue.

Over time of course, human nature takes over and people begin to nibble away at the spirit of those rules, which inevitably results in some sort of formal codification of the rules, if for nothing else than to make it easier to handle disputes. The spirit of the law gives way to the letter of the law and the enforcement of the rules by the people benefitting from the present interpretation of the rules. It is that last bit that leads to the final phase of every ruling elite.

When the rules are first written down, everyone agrees on the meaning of the text, but over time that comes into dispute. On the one hand, people at the lower end of the status tree seek advantage in any ambiguity. If they can get everyone to agree on some new meaning of a word or phrase, they can maybe arbitrage that ambiguity to their advantage and move up the status tree. On the other hand, the people at the top want to stay at the top, so they soon engage in the same practice.

The fact is, once the ruling elite begins to question their own rules, the ruling elite is dead in spirit, because there is no turning back from this phase. The reason is they no longer have a shared spirit of the rules. The written rules were an effort to recapture that spirit by throwing a net of words over the hole, but that inevitably leads to people looking for holes in the net. Outsiders use the holes to sneak into the elite and insiders use the holes to oust competitors from the elite.

We have a real world example of this happening. The House has dumped Donald Trump’s tax returns into the public. This is probably their final act of spite against Trump, as the Republicans take over next month. Spite is the correct word here. The reason for doing it is they hope something in it will embarrass Trump. This is a remarkable thing in that these people have obsessed over Trump for going on a decade and they have yet to learn that you cannot embarrass Donald Trump.

Putting that aside, it has been a rule in America since the 16th Amendment was passed that a citizen’s relationship with the federal state with regards to his taxes is a private matter, unless a dispute arises about taxes owed. At that point, the matter goes into a court where the necessary evidence is presented. The IRS does not distribute personal tax data and the individual is under no obligation to publish his tax data. In fact, anyone publishing someone’s tax data is breaking the law.

This issue of privacy with regards to tax data is mostly a ruling class privilege, but like all elite privileges, it has been turned into a moral principle. You see, the rich people gaming the tax system do not have to make this public because it is a sacred principle of America that your taxes remain private. Whether this is a good idea is debatable, but for over a century, everyone in power agreed it was a good idea. So much so they ran Nixon off for merely questioning it.

Now, the people releasing Trump’s tax data are not worried about this happening to them if Trump wins the White House in 2024. First of all, the key states have been fortified for democracy, so everyone knows the 2024 result. What they should be concerned with is someone in the system now using this new loophole to leverage their way up the ladder. Normalizing the release of private tax data is a high price to pay for exacting revenge against Trump.

That is the danger of exceptions. They have knock on effects that are not always easy to assess, but they also do something else. Normalizing this sort of gainsaying erodes trust in the rules. If every comma in the law is now up for interpretation, what is the point of having rules? History tells us that the answer to that question is a man on a horse choosing to cross a river. In other words, the rules based society collapses and something or someone replaces it.

In the fullness of time, the historians will look at the Trump business as an example of the steady decline of the American empire. Trump may be cast as the Gracchi brothers, not for what he did but for what he came to represent. The murder of Tiberius Gracchus normalized the use of violence by the elite in defense of power. The grotesque abuse of power by the regime to counter the populist surge represented by Trump has yet to go that far, but there is still time until the next “election.”

The Case Against Trump

Posted on December 20, 2022 by thezman

Note: Is the man in your life a lifeless lump on the couch? Is the little lady acting more like an old lady? Need to add some spice to your life? Then head over to Minter & Richter for a jar or two of their hot sauce.

The January 6 committee has finally wrapped up its work with a series of criminal referrals for Donald Trump. Exactly no one is surprised by this result, as this was obviously the point of the charade from the start. The only people surprised by the ending are the cranks and crazies that still bang on about Trump. The one interesting thing about this is that it highlights the defining feature of the people who compose the core of the anti-Trump cult.

There are two big questions with this latest development. The first is whether the Department of Justice will go ahead and indict Trump. Merrick Garland has been under intense pressure from the crazies to throw Trump in jail, but he has so far found a way to avoid deciding. He just appointed one of their favorite goofballs to operate as a special prosecutor. It was a delaying tactic, much in the way that the appointment of John Durham was a way to run out the clock.

Garland is a bloodthirsty fanatic like the rest of his cult, but he understands the danger of bearing his fangs in public. If he makes it too obvious that his cult no longer has any respect for the people or institutions of the country, there could be trouble. These people believe deeply in the power of narrative, so the narrative builders are busy inventing new stories to provide the content creators in the media. These things take time, so the final call is probably months away.

The other big question is whether this is good for us. There are a few schools of thought on the whole throw Trump in jail business. The conventional school is that even though everyone knows this is Stalinist nonsense, it is another blow to his brand, which is dying from a thousand cuts right now. The cumulative effect of these assaults is slowly marginalizing Trump. At some point, Trump will have to agree to go out with a whimper and thus leave his supporters without a leader.

That seems to be the thinking of the anti-Trump cultists. They think they are the white hats with the support of the public. The counter is that Trump is once again blessed with the best enemies. Just when people get tired of his act, his opponents remind the world that Trump stirs the passions of the most loathsome, vulgar people at the center of the current crisis. No man has been blessed with the volume of free media as Trump and this is just more free attention.

There are other scenarios for how this plays out. Garland could formerly charge Trump and then the Republicans mount a “totally spontaneous and authentic” campaign to remove him from primary ballots. In the same way they engineered Congressman Steve King’s exit from politics, they would run the same scam on Trump. By coordinating with the other party, they would pretend they are simply protecting the party from this obviously bad man.

From a dissident perspective, this would be manna from heaven. No one would be fooled by this and it would bolster the case for boycotting the party. The only thing keeping many people engaged with Republican politics is the hope that the highly corrupt leadership could one day be replaced. Trump is their symbol of hope, so his engineered removal by party leaders would be the final straw. Millions of Trump voters would suddenly start thinking about boycotting the system.

Even if the Republican party sits this out, Trump getting hauled away in chains is good news for dissidents. Given what has been revealed about the FBI’s involvement in censuring speech on-line and the DOJ running a domestic spying operation on Congress, it is hard to not see the bananas in this republic. Biden having his political rival thrown in prison on manufactured charges would instantly vaporize support for the system as a whole.

George Washington famously said that the last act of any government is to loot the treasury, but he turns out to have been wrong. In pre-ideological societies, this was probably a fair observation. Like the rest of the Founders, Washington was deeply influenced by the English Civil War. He had ancestors who fought on the side of the king, so it was more than just historical. In the age before ideology, money was what eventually broke the legitimacy of government.

In the ideological age, the final acts of the government are about snuffing out the last flames of love the people have for the cause. The Soviets eventually made even the most loyal communists cynical. Mao had to murder a lot of people, but eventually the ChiComs lost faith in communism. Of course, the final acts of revolutionary France were to bring the Jacobins to meet Madame Guillotine. As with marriage, when the love for the cause fades, the relationship soon dies.

That is the way to look at this Trump business and all the other stuff that has been revealed over the last decade. The loathsome degenerates parading across the political stage rely on public faith in the system. Every outrage undermines that faith until a tipping point is reached. Maybe it is Trump being thrown in a dungeon or maybe it is something else, but the tipping point is always closer than we think. Godspeed anti-Trumpers, Godspeed.

Democratic Wars

Posted on December 19, 2022 by thezman

Note #1: Behind the green door is a post about the JFK assassination, a review of the movie Rebel Without A Cause and the Sunday podcast. You can sign up at SubscribeStar or Substack. Note also that Michael Anton penned a foam-flecked rant about my post on the myth of natural rights. I will respond in time.

Note #2: If you are looking for a book to read, you may want to buy the book A Walk in the Park: My Charlottesville Story. It is a first person account of the events by a couple of good guys who deserve your support. It is a great Christmas gift.

It used to be said that democracies do not go war with one another, even though democracies are often in the center of wars. This has always been the argument for promoting democracy. In theory, if all the world is organized into democracies of one type or another, there can be no war. Another take on this is the claim that countries that have a McDonalds will not go to war with one another. People who embrace liberal democracy have no reason to fight one another.

Of course, democracy is a loaded term that can mean just about anything. Ireland is a democracy where they put Christians in prison for violating the speech laws. Syria treats its Christian population better than most democracies, but it is not a democracy, so the biggest democracy in the world, the United States, feels entitled to bomb its cities and demand regime change. Norway is threatening to jail a woman for reading a dictionary, which is becoming the norm in democracies.

Strictly speaking, there are no democracies in the world. The so-called democracies have some form of representative government. Issues are not put before the voters or even discussed with the voters. As the late Robert Dahl explained, the so-called democracies are actually polyarchies. Power is invested in multiple people, who are charged with implementing what they perceive as the general will. This is done through a set procedures and institutions.

Dahl further argues that this form of government is the creation of the United States and to a lesser degree France. During the twentieth century, this form of government was imposed on Western Europe and parts of Asia, after having been conquered by the United States in the Second World War. After the Cold War, the collective West then imposed this on the former eastern bloc countries. Therefore, Western democracies are a collection of polyarchies.

This helps explain why the Western democracies are so aggressive. It has been roughly thirty years since the end of the Cold War and in that time the Western democracies have been waging war on the world. The term “regime change” is a term everyone in the world understands, because it is always attached to a war of aggression by Western democracies, usually led by the United States. The current war against Russia by the West is all about regime change in Moscow.

The reason the world’s great champion of democracy has been waging war on the world for the last three decades is that the United States has always been an aggressive warrior country. Since the founding, America has been either at war with some other people, at war with itself or creating the conditions for the next war in the name of spreading democracy. It is fair to say that the reason America exists, as a practical matter, is to make war on the world.

The United States is a country created in war. Integral to the founding was the war for independence, which is central to the American identity. Of course, as soon as America was independent, it refused to repay the French for their help in the war, the result being the Quasi-War with France. Right after that it was the Barbary Wars against Muslim pirates and then the War of 1812. American barely existed for a generation before it was declaring war on the world.

The 19th century was one war after another. In addition to the three wars above, there was the First Seminole War, the Texas Revolution, the Second Seminole War, the Aroostook War, the Mexican–American War, the Third Seminole War, the Second Opium War, the Pig War, the First and Second Cortina Wars, the American Civil War, the Second Samoan Civil War, the Spanish–American War, the Philippine–American War, the Moro Rebellion and the Boxer Rebellion.

All of those wars took place against the backdrop of the endless war on the Indians, as America conquered the continent. If you accept the argument from most conservatives that the real founding of the country was the Civil War, the so-called second founding theory, then it is reasonable to say that the point of American democracy is to make war on the world in order to impose American democracy. This explains the 20th century, which was nothing but endless war.

This brings us to the present. The United States is leading the Western democracies in a war against Russia and its allies. Washington openly talks about regime change in Moscow and Beijing. It has not mentioned regime change in New Delhi, but you can be sure that is on tap, as the Indians move closer to Russia. None of these countries want war with America, but they do not want to be fortified with democracy at the point of gun, so they are fighting a war for survival.

America is a country of roughly three hundred million people in a world that is around nine billion people, give or take. That is three percent of the global population, but responsible for at least half the war mongering in the world. If we add in the population of Europe, then we get to roughly 13% of the global population. It is reasonable to wonder if the rest of the world is going to continue to tolerate this 13% of the population being responsible for over half of the wars in the world.

Putting that aside, the violent nature of American democracy raises an important question about cause and effect. Is it the moral spring of democracy that causes America to wage war on the world? This need to impose her values on the world naturally leads to war. On the other hand, is it the natural fanaticism of the people that leads to the embrace of both the secular religion of democracy and the impulse to impose its values on the world?

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