Next Phase Of The Ukraine War

Posted on May 31, 2023 by thezman

It has been a year since the Russians began the process of shifting from a limited military operation to a full-scale war. After the Ukrainians withdrew from settlement talks in Turkey, the Russians realized the West was in it is for the long haul, so they had to adjust to this new reality. The first thing they did was appoint General Sergey Surovikin to take control of military operations in Ukraine. Then came a mobilization of 300,000 additional forces to support the war in the Ukraine.

What followed was a campaign of missile attacks on Ukrainian power plants, rail hubs and strategic infacilities. Then came the mass use of UAVs to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. This was all part of the general shift from a quick conflict aimed at a negotiated settlement to a long grinding war of attrition. The purpose of this new Russian strategy was to slowly destroy Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations with an eye on eventually destroying their military.

A year into this new war, the results are close to what many predicted when the Russians shifted to this model. The West lacks to military industrial capacity for this sort of warfare, so the supply of weapons to Ukraine has declined. Meanwhile, the Russians degraded Ukrainian air defenses to the point where they can now stage constant air raids on Ukrainian supply lines. The long talked about Ukrainian offensive has been indefinitely delayed as a result of these attacks.

It is hard to know what is happening inside Ukraine due to the tsunami of propaganda from the media and the volunteer army of regime toadies online. Trivial events are rolled up into glorious narratives that have no bearing on reality. When the Wagner forces captured the remaining high-rises in the city of Bakhmut, Western sources reported that Ukraine was staging a counter attack to encircle them. In reality the Ukrainians were simply staging a fighting retreat from their positions.

That said, it is becoming clear that the Ukrainians are in trouble militarily and the end may be closer than many realize. For starters, Zelensky now spends most of his time outside the country. Some have speculated that he thinks the end could come at any minute and would prefer to be elsewhere when it happens. For over a year he was doing zoom sessions from his bunker to entertain Western media. Over the last month he has found any reason to be outside the country.

General Zaluzhnyi, the man in charge of the Ukrainian army, has been mysteriously absent for over a month. One short video of him was released, after the Ukrainians put out a series of fake stories about his whereabouts. The man in charge of the defense of Bakhmut has also been keeping an unusually low profile. As with Zaluzhnyi, General Oleksandr Syrskyi was fond of entertaining Western media. Over the last month he has not made any media appearances.

Then there is the new tactic by the Ukrainians of launching drone attacks against civilian targets inside Russia. The first attack was a month ago that targeted the Kremlin before the big Russian holiday. Then there was the very weird attack on a border village with Ukrainians pretending to be anti-Putin Russian militants, using American equipment to stage an uprising. Last weekend, there was a wave of primitive drones sent at Moscow, with a few striking apartment buildings.

Of course, the weirdest thing to happen recently is the long running hype about a Ukrainian counter-offensive that was due a few months ago. It was supposedly set for March, but then was delayed due to weather. Then it was delayed until early May due to logistics and then delayed again for unknown reasons. Meanwhile the Russians have intensified their attacks on Ukrainian supply lines. Maybe one has to do with the other, but no one seems to be interested in the answer.

Maybe this is all 4-D chess, but the parsimonious answer is that things are starting to unravel in Ukraine. A year of increasing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s military industrial system has degraded their ability to fight. Two months ago General Milley said Ukrainian air defenses were near collapse. A couple of weeks ago a New Yorker pieced confirmed speculation that Ukraine was short of ammunition. The spike in Russian air activity over Ukraine suggests they now control the skies.

The weird behavior of Ukrainian leadership and the decline in activity by the Ukrainian military suggests their capacity to fight is critically low. The sudden use of insurgent-style tactics, championed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, may signal a shift in Ukraine in response to reality on the ground. What Zelensky and his generals may be preparing for is something like what happened in Iraq. The military collapses, but in a way gives rise to an organized insurgency.

This may be the final play by Washington. The neocons have been circulating a Korean-style end to the war. The Russians keep and hold their positions and the Ukrainians, with Western support, hold their positions. There is no logical reason for the Russians to accept something they have for something they do not want. If they keep fighting, they will soon break the spirit of the Ukrainian army and prevent the West from resupplying them with new weapons.

On the other hand, if Washington turns the west of Ukraine into a launching pad for Ukrainian terrorist attacks on Russia, maybe the Kremlin is willing to consider a deal similar to the Korean solution. There is history for this. In the Second World War Ukrainian nationalist worked with the Nazis to attack Russia. Today’s Ukrainian nationalist consider Stepan Bandera, the leader of the nationalists during the war, as a hero and example to follow.

This shift would have several benefits. One it would give Washington an excuse for not dealing with the issue. Useful idiots like Lyndsey Graham could be counted on to call the terrorists “freedom fighters” as he did with ISIS. It would reduce the cost to Washington, as terrorism can be funded at a fraction of a land war. Primarily, it would require Russia to keep fighting after the Ukrainian army was defeated. You can see the appeal of this to the neocons.

It is unlikely that the Russians would accept a Korean-style partitioning of Ukraine, if it means NATO operating in the rest of Ukraine. The neocons probably assume this, so they will move ahead with their insurgency plan. Since this will no doubt spill into EU countries like Poland and Germany, which have millions of Ukrainian refugees now, this has the added benefit of keeping Europe dependent on Washington. Terrorist chaos on the border of Europe is good for the neocon cause.

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The Future Of Fed Plenty

Posted on May 30, 2023 by thezman

Americans have been conditioned to believe we live in a market economy where producers chase customers. The subtext to American politics for generations has been protecting the marketplace from the socialists. In reality, America is more of a command economy than a market economy. We do not think of it as a command economy because that phrase brings to mind commissars arguing about why the left shoe factory has a different quota than the right shoe factory.

While we have never had five-year plans or an official industrial policy, the people in charge have always had a tight grip on the economy. The primary lever since the 1980’s has been the money supply. The bank of all banks, the Federal Reserve, controls the flow of money in the system. While it does not decide how many shoes get made, it does decide the shoe maker’s cost of money. The Fed can create a recession to reduce demand and it can create plenty through cheap money.

This is not the only lever of our command economy. The regulatory state exerts an enormous amount of power on the economy. Right now, the EPA is plotting to kill off the gas stove market in order to please Gaia. The claim is gas stoves give people the cooties or something, but the real reason is the people in the EPA are primitives who follow a spirit religion. They can and often do change economic activity based on what their shaman has to say about Gaia.

It is not just the federal administrative state with power over the economy. The states have their own junior varsity administrative state. In Maryland, for example, they have decreed that all new homes must be equipped with sprinkler systems, like the sort you see in office buildings. The National Fire Sprinkler Association just happens to be located in Maryland. Their members, conveniently enough, have the exclusive right to install and maintain sprinkler systems.

That is the other level of the command economy. Large private operators can exert enormous pressure on the administrative and politics systems. They also get favors that small players cannot purchase. Every Walmart in America enjoys free infrastructure and tax abatements from local government. One reason the big box store eliminated the small retailer is they colluded with the state. Like the Bolsheviks in the 1920’s, America’s ruling party prefers consolidation into controllable industries.

The Bolsheviks liked large enterprises because they assumed they would be easier to control, and they would drive off the vestiges of capitalism. They were somewhat right about the last part, as we see today. The first part they never got right. By the 1970’s, the Soviet system grew increasingly complicated as it became less efficient, because the scale of the system outpaced the ability to manage it. There were too many variables and too many interactions between those variables.

The American command economy would have faced the same problems, and it was headed in that direction in the 1970’s, but a couple of big things happened. For starters, the decision was made to ship the manufacturing base overseas. Instead of trying to centrally manage an industrial economy, production was handed over to the third world so they could do it. The Fed could use the money supply to control the flow of manufactured goods into the system.

The other thing that happened was the microprocessor revolution. The Soviets recognized this as their way out of the complexity problem, but they were already past the point of diminishing returns by the time cheap computers and trained computer programmers were in sufficient supply. America escaped this fate, as the economic planners were able to harness these new tools to control the economy. The managerial state would not be possible without computers.

The trouble is our system is now suffering from the same problems the Soviets faced in their command economy. The complexity is overwhelming the system. The Federal Reserve has been fighting inflation for two years now. At the same time, spending has spiraled upward with no hope of arresting the growth. This forces the Fed to create more money through various means. The recent debt ceiling drama suggests there is no political way to solve the fiscal crisis.

It may not feel like a crisis as there are plenty of jobs and there is plenty of money to buy consumer goods. People have lots of complaints, but few of them are about the economy, as far as anyone knows. Given the monolithic nature of the media, we cannot assume that what we see in the press is reality. Even so, there are no bread lines and sales of houses and consumer goods are strong. Whatever problems that exist are not showing up in consumer behavior.

Of course, the years following the death of Stalin were good times in the Soviet Union, as their economy grew faster than any economy in the West. After recovering from the devastation of the war, shops were full of basic goods and the Soviet system seemed to be working better than capitalism. The Russians were ahead of the West in the space race, and they enjoyed a missile gap. Then red plenty slowly ground to a halt and their system fell into a generation long decline.

The fed plenty that American has been enjoying for the last thirty years may be about to turn negative for the same reasons. The system has become too complicated for the masters of the system to operate. In the Soviet times, the result was too many left shoes or mountains of concrete with shortages of winter coats. In this age, it means bans of gas stoves and diversity programs because companies care more about ESG scores than the desires of their customers.

This was always the argument against command economies. It was not so much that some unelected authority made decisions. It was that over time, they would always succumb to complexity. The lack of price signals subjected the economic trade-offs to political jockeying. In the Soviet system, the politically favored got what they wanted, even when it made no economic sense. In our system, we see the same phenomenon but colored with liberal jargon.

Perhaps this is where AI steps into the breech. The next great leap in data processing and decision making will overcome the complexity issue. Instead of armies of analysts with economics degrees pouring over data to draft reports for the managers, AI systems will do the work in real time, making changes to the flow of money and information in the system to overcome bottlenecks and political jockeying. Fed Plenty will become the objective of the robots put in charge of the economy.

Artificial Familiarity

Posted on May 29, 2023 by thezman

The internet has made it possible for people around the globe to easily pass information back and forth among one another. This is taken for granted these days, but it is truly a revolutionary event. Since the dawn of civilization information spread no faster than a man could run. In the 19th century the train made this process a tiny bit faster then cars and planes made it even faster in the 20th century, but the internet puts all of us, if we choose, together in real time.

While this feels like a miraculous development for the curious and productive, it may also be a curse we are struggling to understand. The internet puts the smart, curious, and productive people together, but it also puts crazy people together. That nutty woman in the suburbs who thinks she is a psychic can now join up with other women who also think they are psychics. They can form a “community” online where they encourage and reinforce their delusions.

The apparent rise in the number of pedophiles is made possible by the ease with which these people can now associate. In the analog days, these people could not easily collaborate with one another. Those cursed this maladaptation could not easily access this material and there was high risk in trying to obtain it. The internet made it easy for these people to work together to produce and disseminate this stuff. The curious now find this material after a few clicks of a mouse.

Recency bias is the tendency to overemphasize the importance of recent experiences or the latest information when trying to understand current events. The news seems to be full of pedophiles lately, so we think it is a growing problem. The Left coming out in favor of pedophilia now certainly adds to the sense that it is a growing issue, so we have to adjust for that possibility. On the other hand, the number of cases is growing at the same time the Left is celebrating it.

In other words, when it comes to child abuse, the internet is making it easier for the pedophiles to meet one another, thus increasing the phenomenon, but the internet is also making us more aware of it. This increased awareness is made possible by people aware of this trend easily communicating the particulars. The same forces that allow the pedophiles to collaborate in their activity allows normal people to become aware of it and organized to oppose it.

Counterintuitively, the internet is tribalizing society. In the analog days, the pedophiles were a small and manageable problem. These were individuals forced to work in isolation and therefore caused the minimum of harm. Normal people could trust that the odds and the police would protect them, so they saw no need to know much about this issue or work with others to guard against it. The internet brought these people together and they formed two warring camps.

Obviously, the pedophile issue is an extreme example, but relevant due to corporate America embracing the child molesters over their customers. The same tribalizing forces unleashed by the internet are most likely at play here. The beautiful people who make corporate policy now see the Dirt People everywhere. Whenever they go online, they are confronted by Trump voters, heterosexuals, white people and all the other demons their “community” says are evil.

A part of what makes internet tribalization work is that it allows people with a minority view to interact with others holding the same view. This reinforces the belief, but also gives them the sense they are a growing community and therefore their minority view will soon be the majority view. When disconfirmation appears, these people can trust that their online pals will find a way to cope with it and thus provide them a way to not only explain it but reinforce group solidarity.

A good example of this is the recent events in the Ukraine. As events have gone against Ukraine in the war, online communities create pleasing alternative realties where their side is on the march. This guy spends all day everyday explaining to the likeminded why bad news is actually good news. This guy spends his days creating an alternative reality for the likeminded. These online communities operate like the UFO cult at the center of this famous study in the 1950’s

T. S. Eliot famously wrote “Humankind cannot bear very much reality.” To some degree all of us are susceptible to escapism. We want some result, and we look for information that suggests it is happening. Some people, of course, go the other way and fear some result and look for information showing their worst fears are happening. It is two sides of the same coin and all of us are prone to it. Some people are more prone than others as belief operates on a scale like all human traits.

In the analog age, the limits placed on the flow of information left the believer in isolation unless he could physically connect with others. Joining a cult took effort, which is why so few people joined them. In the digital age, the internet is full of cults catering to every conceivable belief. Not only can you connect with thousands who hold your same hopes and fears, you can get instant confirmation that you are the good guy, and the rest of the world is the bad guy.

Of course, the internet is making us more aware of this reality. In the analog days we would have no idea that the Jewish guy across the street had a seething hatred for white people, but in this age we just look at his Twitter profile. Not knowing he hates you made it possible to not hate him. Knowing that he wants you dead makes it impossible to not hate him back. The more we know the more aware we are of the dangers that are lurking around every corner.

Since the dawn of the computer age, people have worried that the machines would become aware and then set about killing off humanity. The truth is, that process has already begun, except the machines are not doing the killing. Instead, they are holding up a mirror to society and letting us see ourselves. We do not like what we see, so we will find others who agree with us that we must kill off those other guys. It is not Artificial Intelligence that will get us, but Artificial Familiarity.

Hard Truths

Posted on May 26, 2023 by thezman

A few months ago, when Pedro Gonzalez suddenly became an over-the-top supporter of Ron DeSantis and committed enemy of all Trump supporters on Twitter, I knew I was going to hate the 2024 election. The election was never going to be fun with Trump running, as it would mean another round of foaming at the mouth claims about Trump, but with DeSantis in the race it would be much worse.

The reason it would be worse is lots of people who should know better would convince themselves that DeSantis was the miracle antidote to their troubles. They would make all of the arguments that the anti-Trump people make, but swear they are acting from better motives or making a reasoned critique. Many of the on-line influencers, of course, would be on the payroll of DeSantis.

On the other side would be the vast on-line army of Trump fans, many of whom are on the Trump payroll. They would dust off their playbooks from 2016 when they went to war with the neocons and Buckley-cons, but this time they would not be using jokes and clever memes, but shrill denials and denunciations. In other words, they will just be monkeys fleeing poo at the crap-fest.

This election will be a test of sorts for our people. Many on this side of the great divide still cling to the fantasy of voting our way out of this mess. Their heads tell them it is not possible, but a lifetime of conditioning still traps holds their hearts. Their struggle will be avoiding the crap show, but many will succumb and join it. Those who have broken free from the madness will not enjoy seeing this.

That is the point of the show this week. There are hard truths about this age and our politics that are the final boss on the trip over to this sort of politics. Once these truths are accepted, the coming election is just a reboot of a bad movie. It is Fast & Furious Nth edition, this time with new bad actors to join the bad actors from previous iterations of the franchise. Enjoy the fake explosions.

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This Week’s Show

Contents

Elections Are A Circus
Elections Do Not Matter
The System Is The Problem
Your Opinion Does Not Matter (Link) (Link)
The Game Is Rigged (Link)

Direct Download, The iTunes, Google Play, iHeart Radio, RSS Feed

Full Show On Spreaker

Full Show On Rumble

Full Show On Odysee

Past And Present

Posted on May 25, 2023 by thezman

This week we have seen two more contenders join the Republican primary field, promising to be happy warriors to save America. Tim Scott from South Carolina and Ron DeSantis of Florida bring the field to eight, as far as the candidates with any chance of getting on the debate stage. With the exception of Trump and Ramaswamy, the field is all doing some version of conservative nostalgia. That is a mix of the crucible, the covenant, and the creed.

That last bit comes from a short little book titled After Nationalism which describes the three main ways the American ruling class has unified the country. The crucible is the melting pot story of America. The covenant is the claim that America has a special purpose in the world. The creed is the old familiar civic nationalist argument that America is just a collection of ideas. Conservatism has relied on all three to market candidates and programs over the years.

The theme of the book is that those three unifying narratives are no longer working as the country devolves into warring tribes. You can see that in the presentation from the Republican candidates as they announce their campaigns. The Tim Scott show was like a 1990’s Conservative Inc. fantasy about the black vote. The DeSantis campaign teased his announcement with this ad on Twitter, which is Bush era patriotism without the promise of a crusade against Islam.

What the Republican primary is going to give us is another unhealthy dose of the old conservative formula. On the one hand, you are supposed to ignore the fact that you live around people who look nothing like you. On the other hand, you are supposed to focus on those nebulous ideals that allegedly define America. As long as everyone forgets about the long list of harms that have been inflicted on them over the last several decades, we can unite to save the country!

The one exception to all of this is Trump, who is a weird product of the two main forces colliding in the present moment. The one force is the old civic nationalism that held the white middle-class together and tightly bound it to both the Republican party and the political system itself. The other force is the radical changes unleashed by the ruling elites who no longer believe in the old civic nationalism. Trump and his fans exist in that incoherent vortex created by these colliding forces.

In fairness to Ron DeSantis, he seems to share the moral outrage of the average white person over the things we are seeing. His opposition to the sexualization of children is genuine, as well as his opposition to the tribal politics of the Left. Unlike the rest of the field opposing Trump, DeSantis is a normal person who is properly offended by the lunacy that has been unleashed on normal people. Like most normal people, he does not understand why this is happening.

The terms Left and Right have lost their meaning, but we still use them because we have nothing else at the moment. We can, however, see the vague outlines of a new scale developing when we look at the Republican field. Instead of the old 20th century poles of Hitler at one end and Stalin at the other, the new poles are the post-Marx culture warriors at one end and the biological realists at the other. The former is more fully developed, while the latter is still evolving.

Most of the Republican field is left of center. They largely agree with the moral claims of the culture warriors. They disagree, mildly, with their tactics. Tim Scott has no real objection to the antiwhite pogroms run by the military, for example, he just worries that they make it more difficult to wage pointless wars of choice. Nikki Haley is fine with the woke capital media campaigns, but her consultants tell her that she has to pretend to be upset about these things when she is interviewed.

DeSantis is one guy right of center on this stuff. He does not agree with the culture warriors, but he thinks the old system remains intact and that these weirdos are just random lunatics that have slipped their leash. He thinks the system can deal with these people without making any changes to the system. All we have to do is go back to our American principles. In other words, he is a guy who sees the iceberg, but he does not appreciate the part under the water.

On this scale, Trump lies just to the right of DeSantis. In fact, the main difference is style, owing to the difference in temperament. DeSantis responds to the current madness by pulling out the rule book. Trump responds to the current madness by throwing a chair out the window. It is not that either man is more or less offended by what is happening. They have different personalities and different worldviews, based on vastly different lives, so they react differently.

Even so, Trump is still in the camp that thinks the system can solve this crisis, if the right people are running the system. Viscerally he senses that this may not be true which helps explain his vacillation. Since Trump came on the scene, he has been hearing the distant calls of right-wing nationalism, but he lacks the understanding to make out what is being said. He is a man being pulled in multiple directions because he senses that something is terribly wrong with the system.

This conflict between the past and the present is why the Republicans are about to replay their 2016 primary. They have a more diverse field than in 2016 and Trump is not viewed as a novelty act. DeSantis is a better version of Ted Cruz, but he is occupying the same place as Cruz occupied in the 2016 race. Trump, of course, is an improved version of himself, having suffered the full force of the regime. He is not just a rambunctious rebuke, but a legitimate victim of the regime.

Even so, this replay of the 2016 election is due to the fact that the party and the country are stuck in the past. Everything about our present politics is backward looking, as if no one really wants to face up to the present. The 2016 election should have broken both parties free of the past, but instead it made them cling tighter. This election will be a reboot of the old franchise, not because the original was so good, but because no one can think of anything new that better fits the times.

The Death Of Conservatism

Posted on May 24, 2023 by thezman

It is fair to say that American conservatism is dead, at least the version that has been sold to us by the conservative industrial complex. They still rake in millions from corporate donors, but the public audience for this stuff is largely confined to rest homes in the sun belt. Flag waving and tax breaks for corporations is just not the crowd pleaser it was a decade ago, much less forty years ago. Conservatism as a political force is headed to the dustbin of history.

The question is, why did it fail? Lost in the endless stream of outrage, real and manufactured, is the fact that the winners are ridiculous. Conservatism lost to men in sundresses demanding to wave their genitals in the face of school children. They lost to people who think Hitler is hiding under their bed. They lost to childless middle-aged women drunk on cheap wine, complaining about men on Twitter. It took effort to lose to this collection of bourgeois misfits.

One reason conservatism failed in America is that conservatives could never accept that people lie in politics. In fact, lying is an essential part of politics. The reason is you must paint your opponents as the bad guys and your side as the good guys, which means gross exaggeration. Conservatives never accepted this. Instead, they demanded as much factual accuracy from their side as possible. When people on their side would exaggerate, conservatives were there to set the record straight.

This was not the result of stupidity. American conservatism evolved into the 1980’s as the antidote to politics. They used to make this point in the Reagan years. Conservatism was the lack of politics. Instead, it was just problem solving. That was very appealing to people who did not like rolling around on the mud with left-wing kooks, but it was a terrible way to engage in politics. It is part of what made conservatism the beautiful losers described by Sam Francis.

Related to this was the fact that American conservatism embraced the libertarian idea that people are motivated by rational self-interest. For conservatives in the 20th century, people were not spiritual beings, so much as moist robots who naturally responded to incentives, particularly economic incentives. This is why conservatism was the accounting department for the welfare state. The only way they could relate to their audience was through the jargon of popular economics.

Another result of this was the habit of conservatives to rely on charts and graphs in response to moral claims. The Left would demand we do something about some victim group and conservatives would respond with a table of figures showing that the victims were not really victims. It was not that it made conservatism heartless, but that it made them seem brainless. They kept falling for the same traps, eventually succumbing to the moral claims of the Left.

That is the probably the main failing of American conservatism. To this day they insist that politics is about solving problems. This is false. Politics is always about friends and enemies and those are defined on moral terms. No one wants to fight someone for making a math error. Politics is so nasty and feral because the opponents see one another in moral terms. The other guy is the bad guy because he does not love what you love and hate what you hate.

The Left has always understood this. The reason that the demand for Nazis exceeds the historic global supply is the Left always needs villains. Even when their opponents agree with them, they still call them the worst names in their book. Donald Trump would have been happy to make generous deals with the Democrats, but they needed to hate him more than they wanted a deal. This is why the Left steamrolled conservatives on every issue. They work only in morality, not facts and reason.

This inability to understand what drives politics may explain the inability to accept that their opponents genuinely believe what they are saying. Much of what makes up conservative commentary is a claim that the Left does not actually believe what they are saying, but instead they are using it as cover for money and power. For conservatives, everything is reduced to money and power, because this is what motivates the moist robots they imagine as their audience.

This is why conservatives have always underestimated the Left. Because they cannot accept that these people believe what they are saying, they just assume they will stop saying it once they have money and power. Instead, the Left uses their newly acquired money and power to act on what they said and produce more outlandish things they can push onto society. When you think people are moist robots, you stop believing that people can be evil, which is how evil triumphs.

Finally, the great failure of American conservatism will be seen in the Republican primary that kicks off this summer. The field challenging Trump will insist that everyone must rally around cleaning up the mess created by the Left. They will make the oldest of conservative arguments. That is, you must forget about the crimes committed against you by the other side and instead rally with your fellow citizens, even the ones who hate you, to fight for America!

Of course, this requires you to not get anything you want and instead normalize the latest insanity from the Left. You see, it is your duty as an American to sacrifice your interests for the nebulous concept of America. This was powerful magic forty years ago when the country was 85% white and had a handful of foreigners. In a country being overrun by migrants and hyper-racialized lunatics attacking white people, this rallying cry sounds like a suicide cult.

Robert Lewis Dabney famously described conservatism as “merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition.” This was always true, for sure, but it worked for a long time because the radicals were still aspirational, rather than suicidal. The dialectic between the Left and the Right in American was a useful engine for maintaining the ruling class consensus. One side proposed, the other side opposed, and the consensus was some compromise.

This changed just as conservatism reached its peak. The triumph of conservatism in the 1980’s was followed by the descent of progressivism into the dark, suicidal politics of nihilism and Gnosticism. Conservatives have never come to terms with this and as a result have been a steep decline ever since. As America descends into tribal politics that must follow the transition to majority-minority demographics, conservatism will become a museum piece and then forgotten.

Liberal Theocracy

Posted on May 23, 2023 by thezman

Since the late Middle Ages, political thought in the West has started with the assertion that the point of social organization was to reduce coercion. The ideal society is one in which everyone naturally played their role without being forced into it. The assumption is that forcing people into roles for which they are not suited, or they do not wish to perform is both unjust and dangerous. It is also more costly to compel people to obey the law than if they voluntarily abide by the law.

If the goal of your political model is to reduce coercion to the absolute minimum, then you ideally want a society that agrees on everything. After all, if everyone agrees that society must have gong farmers and some people are better suited for the task than others, then everyone is going to agree on having gong farmers. Even the guy chosen for the task will agree if it is explained to him. He may not like the task, but he will understand he is playing a vital role in his society.

Straight away you can see the problem for individualism and the natural rights crowd when it comes to organizing society. If we start from the assumption that we are all unique individuals in control of our own destiny, then we are free to not go along with being the town’s gong farmer. Even if all the facts point to that role being best for the person and his community, he is free to reject it because he is an autonomous person free to live his life as he sees fit.

If we assume we have magical rights bestowed upon us by the gods, then it is fundamentally immoral for society to coerce us into anything, much less a profession we do not like. Since coercion is not limited to physical force, the gong farmer who sees himself as a sovereign man with natural rights is going to look at the social arrangements that result in him being the gong farmer as coercion. In other words, he has a right to not be the gong farmer.

You can see the obvious problem with trying to organize a society composed of individuals who think they have God-given rights. Your proposed social order must first convince all of them to accept the results of the system, even if the results favor some members over others. That is a tall order, given that everyone believes that they have the same rights as everyone else. After all, if God gave them the same rights, why would he then not give them the same talents?

Since it is not possible to get even a small community to agree on everything about the particulars of organizing the community, especially when everyone believes they are God’s special little snowflake, you are going to need something that leads these individual snowflakes to voluntarily submit to the social order. They will have to believe that their individual rights rest on their sacrifice of those rights in order to maintain the society which makes their rights possible.

That last bit is what has vexed the natural right crowd for generations. They desperately want to believe that natural rights exist independent of society and the men who create and maintain it, but logically this is not true. The concept of rights, natural, individual, human or any other version, is an invention of man. Rights are a claim on society, a demand that the rest of society protect certain entitlements bestowed upon members in exchange for their membership in the society.

We see this at work all over today. The man who subdued the subway lunatic operated on the assumption that he had a duty to defend the rights of his fellow subway riders from that crazed lunatic. The people who will put him in jail operate under the assumption that they have duty to defend their race against any and all actions by people of the white race. Since the latter group has control of society, the former’s individual rights will mean little in the courtroom.

Putting the particulars of that aside, we see a problem of trying to organize a society based on individualism and natural rights. The first thing that must happen is that such a society exclude anyone who does not accept these principles. Even a small number of people who reject these concepts will create two problems for your society organized around individualism and natural rights. One is they will violate the rights of others and second, they will force society to violate their rights.

Now, science tells us that the closer humans are genetically, the more likely they are to agree on the basics of human behavior. Put a group of random Finns together and they will quickly display the group characteristics of Finns. Put a group of Bantus together in the exact same circumstances and they will quickly display the group characteristics that we associate with Bantus. If you want a society with the least amount of coercion, then you want the least amount of biodiversity.

What follows for the individualism and natural rights people is they must insist on a society composed of people who naturally cherish individualism and natural rights if they have any hope of maintaining these things. Further, they must also conjure an exception to their moral code that allows them to act collectively in order to repel attempts to undermine their individualism and natural rights regime. They end up in the same dilemma as the libertarians.

Hans Hermann-Hoppe observed that within libertarian ideology there is no way to maintain a libertarian society. After all, if John Galt suddenly decides to be a Marxist, what business is it of his neighbors? If others join Galt in his new civic religion, what can the libertarians do about it? The non-aggression principle forbids them from compelling Galt and his followers to remain libertarians. The individualism and natural rights crowd run into the same problem with the defenders of the subway lunatic.

The solution for the individualism and natural rights people is a moral code that transcends individual rights, but also supports individual rights. If you believe that your people have been given rights by your God and those rights are what distinguish you from other human groups, then collectively defending those rights is not only permitted, but also necessary. You have a God-given duty to defend your society which is organized around individualism and natural rights.

What you need to maintain a society based on individualism and natural rights is a folk religion that sacralizes those rights and the people who possess them. The same God that grants your people natural rights commands you to defend the people granted those rights, as well as their society that maintains those rights. Under such a condition, the individualism and natural rights people would be justified in rioting in New York and chasing off the prosecutors in defense of their God and his people.

The missing component for the individualism and natural rights crowd is a moral component that compels the believer to defend these principles. Nature cannot be the moral authority for anything, as natural operates outside the domain of the prescriptive, but God or gods can certainly be that moral authority. God tells us what we ought to do, so if our God tells us we ought to respect individualism and natural rights, then we have a duty to do so by any means necessary.

What all this means is that if you want to live in a society in which individualism and natural rights are respected by everyone, then you need to come up with a folk religion that sacralizes those things. What you want is to live in a liberal theocracy in which dissent from individualism and natural rights is not tolerated. What liberalism needs is not a Karl Marx, but a Moses, someone who lead his people to their promised land where they can create their liberal theocracy as God intended.

The Tyranny Of The Stupid

Posted on May 22, 2023 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is a post about the paradox of tolerance, a post about the growing Ukraine quagmire and the Sunday podcast. You can sign up for a green door account at SubscribeStar or Substack.

In The Past is a Future Country, Ed Dutton and J.O.A. Rayner-Hilles, argue that the West is about to be swamped by an unsustainable wave of stupid people. This is not the result of immigration, but rather the culmination of an evolutionary process that began in the Industrial Revolution. Darwinian selection weakened along with the increase in living standards. The result is a steady increase in narcissistic stupid people who undermine the fundamentals of Western society.

In this post, Ed Dutton makes the point that liberal female politicians are getting dumber, as a result of this process he outlined in his book. He relies on two examples, Sanna Marin of Finland and Angela Rayner of Britain, to make his point. Both women are on what we insist on calling the Left and both women are morons. Not only are they stupid, but they appear to have come from stupid parents. They are Nth generation morons who have risen to the top of politics.

It is an amusing and satisfying read for people who think of themselves on the Right, even if he is making sweeping claims from just two examples. For as long as anyone can recall, the people we call the Left have claimed that their opponents are unsophisticated morons who should be dismissed. Having this turned on its head with the use of the human sciences is good fun, but it may be missing the real cause for the great dumbing down of Western politics.

The ideal politician in a liberal democracy has an extremely high verbal dexterity along with an extremely low degree of self-awareness. In fact, the best politicians of this age are glib narcissists who have never done anything useful. Much of the panic over Donald Trump is due to the fact he worked in the dreaded private sector. Having had anything other than a ceremonial position in the real economy is so strange in politics that the political class naturally views it as a defect.

The reason for this is despite the fact we insist on calling it politics, there is little in the way of politics happening in a modern liberal democracy. Everyone in the political system agrees on the moral claims. As Marx noted, when you get the morality settled, there is no need for politics. Put another way, once everyone agrees on the goal, then you are left with a debate about how best to achieve it. The barrier to entry in modern politics is the moral questions.

As a result, the selection pressure in politics is for people who will never color outside the lines and always promote the latest thing. The more natural someone is at conforming to the prevailing orthodoxy, the less likely they are to question what is demanded of them. Of course, if they are especially good at appearing enthusiastic about the latest thing, then all the better. The people in charge are always on the hunt for the glib toady who can really sell the latest thing.

As we see with actors, a lack of self-awareness is key. Someone who is painfully aware of how they look to others, or worries about how they look to others, is not going to be a particularly good performer. Humiliating yourself for laughs or applause works best when you cannot imagine the concept of humiliation. It is why the narcissistic moron is a well-known type in the entertainment world. An idiot who thinks highly of himself, but never questions the script is an ideal actor.

Just as an actor who easily “believes in the project” is always in demand, the politician who is always ready to run with the latest thing is always rewarded. His donors will make sure he is kept in the lifestyle he thinks he deserves. His party will always rely on him to take point on the latest thing. Joe Biden made a long career in politics being a narcissistic simpleton, despite stealing everything in sight. Joe Biden is the perfection of modern democratic politics.

It is not just electoral politics where we see this process, but the politics of the managerial elite as well. David French is a goofy looking buffoon but he has risen to the top of the political media because he has no shame. He will say whatever he needs to say in order to shine amongst the other simpletons. French is the combination of oleaginous rumpswab and narcissistic simpleton that has come to define the chattering classes in the United States.

All of this is the result of democracy. Not the mechanics of voting, but the belief that the general will is the moral authority. Once a society accepts this claim, turns the mob into a god, then moral conformity must follow. After all, if there is no agreement, the general will is unknown, then the people are left with no moral authority. Therefore, the solution is to impose a moral consensus and religiously oppress dissent. The only way democracy can work is if everyone agrees.

This is why Western societies are now policed by a volunteer army of simpletons, prodded along by the autocrats. Democracy collapses if there is not a perceived agreement on the moral questions. Even though the people who rise to the top are stupid, they understand the need for consensus. This is why they so enthusiastically impose the latest thing on the public. Who they are depends upon the belief that everyone supports the latest thing.

None of this is to say that Dutton is wrong about Darwinian selection pressure declining with material prosperity. That is certainly true. Smart people made society safer for stupid people, which allowed the stupid to multiply like tribbles. The reason the stupid are dominating politics, however, is that democracy selects for stupidity because stupid people are much more likely to support the moral consensus. Poverty would not arrest our descent into democratic imbecility.

Random Nonsense

Posted on May 19, 2023 by thezman

Yesterday, Bernie Sanders, Ed Markey and some other generic senators from the Democratic Party held a presser with John Fetterman at which they demanded Joe Biden use the Fourteenth Amendment to raise the debt ceiling. Fetterman is unable to form coherent sentences and he is unable to dress like an adult, so he stood around in ratty gym shorts and a hoodie.

The reason Fetterman was invited is he is a rock star in Washington. As the first severely brain damaged man to win a senate seat, he is a trail blazer according to the carny politics of this age. Because he is mentally incapable of doing anything but utter random words, he is a unique act on the political stage. His extended time in the lunatic asylum only added to his novelty.

Politics is nothing more than a carnival act now. The game is to find some novel way to stand out from the crowd but do so in such a way that you can plausibly claim to be part of a designated victim group. For a white guy, the options are limited, as you are assumed to be part of the oppressor class. Fetterman’s crazy act lets him be a victim and lecture the rest of as a white man.

That is something we have to consider. His inability to string a sentence together could be an act. Aphasia is a real thing with stroke victims, but sociopathy is far more common with politicians than aphasia with stroke victims. It is possible Fetterman is overdoing the Sling Blade act as a way to boost his standing. His extended time in the asylum could simply have been rehearsal time.

That is where we are now with our democracy. We have a guy like John Fetterman who could be a brain damaged hobo with no business in the senate. He could also be a faker, pretending to be a brain damaged hobo. Either way, the carny freaks that dominate politics think it is a great act. No one dares say that he is an embarrassment to the system because none of them are embarrassed by him.

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Radicalizing Ron

Posted on May 18, 2023 by thezman

Memorial Day is a little more than a week away and it is both the unofficial start of summer and the start of the presidential campaign season. Look for Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis to make it official with a kick-off event over the long weekend. Tim Scott may also jump into the race, as he set up an exploratory committee in April, which usually precedes an official announcement. That will bring the field to nine on the Republican side and two on the Democratic side.

In theory, when you run for office, you are running on a platform that you think makes you the best man for the job. In reality, the first step is to run for the nomination, which revolves around being the best chance to win the general election. You may have a great plan for the office, but if you have no chance to win the general election, the voters are not going to support you in the primary. This is why Vivek Ramaswamy will be this cycle’s Andrew Yang.

Normally, the out of office party has a scramble in their primary, where the candidates make their case for being the nominee. It is one part personality contest and one part argument for beating the incumbent. In the case of the Republicans, this would normally mean who offers the best shot to beat Biden. If it is an open seat where both parties are seeking a fresh face, then the primaries tend to devolve into who has the most institutional support in their respective party.

This is what made the 2016 presidential election so rare. Both parties should have had a scramble, but the Democrats rigged their primary in favor of Clinton. The Republicans were ready to rig their primary for Jeb Bush. That way the party insiders could relive the 1990’s with a Bush – Clinton rubber match. Trump wrecked that for the Republicans by changing the calculus of the primary. He made the race into a no confidence vote for the party and the political establishment.

Fast forward to the upcoming Republican primary and the party has the same problem plus additional problems. The base of the party is still very salty with regards to the party leadership and the political establishment. That turned up in the midterm where turnout was tepid in many races. Last week the Republicans lost a sure thing election in Colorado to a random African. They just lost the Jacksonville Florida mayor’s race, despite having huge advantage in money.

Of course, Trump is even more of a middle-finger to the system now than he was in 2016, which strengthens his appeal to disaffected primary voters. The people the voters hate have been waging jihad against Trump since he left office. No one talks about what he did or did not do in office, because the media is full of threats and warnings about Trump and the people who support him. When Biden warned about white supremacy the other day, every Trump voter got the message.

That is the new element to this cycle. Donald Trump is a rich man who could retire from politics and enjoy himself. He could spend his time doing what he truly loves, which is real estate schemes. Whatever you think about the man, he is really good at real estate schemes, and he has a passion for it. Instead, he chooses to be a martyr in a political fight against the full force of the regime. The sorts of people who keep the country going are naturally sympathetic to what Trump is doing.

This is why none of the other options in the Republican primary have a chance to win the nomination, barring extraordinary events. Dreary dullards like Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence can operate only as avatars for what Trump the political symbol represents, which is a rejection of the establishment. The party would be better served by putting cardboard cutouts of various party hacks on stage. Trump making fun of a silhouette of Mitch McConnell would make good television.

Interestingly, the one candidate who seems to understand what is going to happen is Vivek Ramaswamy, who avoids talking about Trump. He has a lot of money which is how he buys his way onto Fox News interviews. In those appearances, he is careful to avoid the Trump issue. Instead, he repeats Trump issues and makes an entertaining complaint against the system. Again, he has no chance, but he seems to get the problem the GOP field is facing.

This is the problem DeSantis faces. He is the only plausible alternative to Trump, but if he attacks Trump, he will sound like the establishment sissies and media rage heads who have been attacking Trump for close to a decade. On the other hand, his path to victory is to argue that he has a better chance of winning the general election than Trump and that is going to require a direct comparison between himself as a candidate and Trump as the well-known public figure.

One clue as to how Team DeSantis is going to try and square that circle is by staking out positions to the right of Trump on things like immigration. He just signed a bill enforcing the states labor laws with regards to migrant workers. The new law requires employers to use E-Verify when hiring. This is something that sets DeSantis apart from the party establishment, but it also puts him to the right of Trump, who keeps doing the legal versus illegal immigration thing.

This is just one issue. DeSantis has already made himself a champion of children with his tough stance on the groomer issue. He has come under fire from the degenerate community over this stuff, with the libertarians leading the charge against his policies toward the Disney corporation. As a political matter, if you have the rainbow warriors and the libertarians attacking you, then you will get a fair hearing from the sorts of people who vote in Republican primaries.

This may be why the regime is worried about DeSantis. His only path to victory is to move the Overton window away from where the regime wants it. Inevitably, Trump will seek to outflank DeSantis on these issues. Imagine Trump taking on the trannies and you can see why Washington is worried. Throw in the opportunistic and entertaining Ramaswamy and the gap between the Cloud People and the Dirt People could become an impossible to ignore chasm by 2024.

That may be the ironic twist to the effort to stop Trump. Ron DeSantis is supposed to be Trumpism without Trump, but in the end, he may be a radicalizing agent that shifts the party base further toward a revolt against the regime. In order to avoid being called Neocon Ron, DeSantis will have to be Radical Ron and in so doing he will help legitimize a radical rejection of regime morality. Opposing the regime moves from instinctive reaction to a radical imperative.

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