A clever way to make smart predictions is to start with the assumption that the near future is not going to be much different from the present. Current trends will extend out over the near term. On the other hand, if you want to get a lot of attention for yourself, you can make bold crazy predications that confirm deeply held suspicions. “Next year we see hyperinflation!” will get the gold bugs and Fed watchers excited. Everyone likes to hear that their dreams will come true in the coming year.
The trouble with either of those approaches is they are not motivated by the desire to figure out what may be coming in the new year. Sure, most things will probably be the same as last year, but so what? What matters is what will be different. Similarly, pretending the Great Pumpkin will rise from the pumpkin patch and finally deliver on his promises is just cheap theater. So, with that in mind, let us cut open the goat and read what the entrails tell us about the coming year.
The signs say chaos is coming for the political class in 2022. The administration’s half-hearted effort to tamp down the Covid panic will be met by shrieking from the Covidians and much of the media. This is where we start to see some deep fissures in the coalition as many are tired of the restrictions while others cannot let it go. This will lead to criticism of the administration from some on the Left and a corresponding bit of return fire from the inner party.
Adding to the chaos will be the collapse of all support for Kamala Harris. She never had a constituency in the party and the prospect of losing the House and Senate means they need to get a replacement done before the election. The fact is Biden is in rough shape so the question is who will pick his successor. The inner party will make this a central part of the fall campaign. They hope the new heir apparent will get their people energized and take people’s attention away from the economy.
The fall elections go poorly for the Democrats. They lose over thirty seats in the House, but the result is not a landslide as many whites sit out the election. The icy hand of demographics begins to show up in formerly safe republicans areas. The Democrats take the loss as an opportunity to force Joe Biden to resign. His deteriorating condition and his successor secured, leads to a coordinated push to have him retire from office after the new year, allowing his successor to run for two terms.
I will finally escape Lagos.
The instability of the imperial leadership begins to show up globally. Ukraine experiences civil unrest, especially in the east. The Turkish economy collapses and we see widescale protests against the government. Israel decides now is the time to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Ethiopia collapses into chaos because Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed overplays his hand in peace talks with the Tigrayan rebels. As a result, east Africa collapses into famine and civil war.
I finish my book and I become more popular than Jesus.
Back on the home front, first quarter inflation comes in much hotter than expected, forcing the Fed to speed up their tapering schedule. Food prices show the biggest rise as the phrase “fertilizer shortage” enters the conversation. As the Fed begins to raise rates for the first time in a generation, equities decline 20% in what the media will tell us is a natural correction. Bitcoin will lose 50% of its value as governments tighten the rules on digital assets and their platforms.
The combination of Covid chaos and economic troubles will result in the first signs of right-wing unrest since the 2020 election. Fueled by anticipation of another stolen election, populist groups will organize public rallies in DC. The FBI, of course, will play their role but thanks to awareness of their shenanigans, these rallies will be full of people with cameras looking for FBI infiltrators. Finding the infiltrator will be the most popular internet game in 2022.
Everyone at Reason magazine will come out as trans and no one will notice.
Conservative Inc. begins to show some serious problems as the decline of their donor base begins to accelerate. Some of it is driven by the actuarial tables but most of it is the increasing realization that conservatism is just a money pit. This will correspond with an uptick in support for populist and dissident operations. Grifters like Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk to become more populist in their rhetoric. Even Trump will start attacking the conservative establishment again.
On the media front, we see a wholesale reorganization of cable news. CNN shifts to a pure news model, dropping their entertainment shows. MSNBC, responding the Tucker Carlson-ization of Fox, begins adding left-wing populist content, retiring many of their current personalities in favor of left-wing YouTube personalities. The collapse of conservative talk radio will accelerate as that audience ages off and people simply stop listening to terrestrial radio in general.
Happy New Year!
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