It is that time of year again when I look back at all of the things I got wrong and promise to do better next year. Well, not all the things I did wrong, just the things I got wrong in last year’s prediction post. Everyone loves making predictions, because everyone forgets about them, but few take the time to revisit their predictions. An iron law of the universe is that you learn more from your mistakes than your successes, so it is a good time to take a look at those mistakes.
As far as the effects of the sanctions on Russia and what it will do to Europe, I was amazingly on target. Gasoline in Germany is about ten dollars per gallon and is expected to go higher in 2024. On the other hand, India and China are experiencing an unprecedented boom in cheap energy. On top of that, the Indians are reselling their refined crude to Europe at a premium. The European economy is in recession now and it is all due to waging war on its energy supplier.
As far as America, I was wrong about how inflation would play out. It seems we got a pause and now it is picking back up again, just as the Fed signals it is ready to start cutting rates in 2024. I still think we end up in the Arthur Burns trap, but the timing of it may be a bit different. I was wrong about interest rates, and I was wrong about the economy as a whole. At least on paper, we have not gone into recession, which seems to be due to relatively cheap energy.
I nailed the Trump story from the start. The lawfare against him has played out as I have been saying since 2021. The party did try to rally around the sacred black man, but he turned out to be too ridiculous even for the Republicans. Instead, they have gone all in on the brown woman. They are trying to fake poll her into contention or at least make her a credible looking loser. War Karen is at 25% in New Hampshire, so they can pretend she is the winner when Trump is gone.
On the Democratic side, I was all wrong. If you want proof we live in a simulation run by sadists, look no further than Joe Biden. The mere fact that this deranged simpleton is president is proof enough. The fact that the party has not removed him from office and found a better actor for the role suggests the simulation is broken. Unless something wild happens in early 2024, it looks like Joe Biden will be on the ballot. The robot historians will never be able to sort this one.
I got the Kanye West stuff mostly right. He is not in bankruptcy, but he must be running out of money as he is now groveling to the usual suspects in Hebrew. You just know that he will be seen in front of a pile of shoes soon. I was wrong about Cozy getting nuked, but they have no traffic now, so close enough. Ethan Ralph was the last guy on there with an audience and he is now on Rumble. Maybe my 2024 prediction will be Cozy shuts down for good.
I did not finish my book. I learned a good lesson on this front. Writing a book is like any other project in that you have to see it through to the end. If you take a break there is a good chance you will never come back from break. I got about three quarters through it and realized I wanted to revisit some of it. I thought maybe I was rushing things, so I took a break and before long other things filled that time slot. One thing I am doing now is setting aside time in the schedule to finish it in 2024.
My Ukraine predictions were a mixed bag. I was wrong about Ukraine pulling back to more defensible positions, even though that was the sensible thing. I was also wrong about NATO escalating by introducing “advisors” into Ukraine. Washington has sent a three-star general to take over planning and there are rumors of NATO people operating in country, but nothing has been confirmed. Putin mentioned Poland maybe taking parts of Western Ukraine, but the Poles have not mentioned it.
It is too soon to tell how all of this will play out in Europe, but the landscape looks bleak for the pro-America parties, so this is an incomplete. The West did try to regime change Serbia this month, so I can take a win on that one, but otherwise I was ahead of my skis on how this plays out politically. I will take the win on the failure of American weapons and what it does to the reputation of the MIC. Western wonder weapons were a colossal failure in Ukraine last summer.
I was joking about human sacrifice being the next social fad, but boy did I hit it out of the park on the Alex Jones stuff. The guy is now facing over a billion in fines for offending some degenerates in Connecticut. That case is a great example of how managerialism and mass media converge create an alternative reality. The mass media has ignored this case, so few people are aware of it, even though it is the most egregious corruption of the law this country has ever seen.
On a positive note, I nailed my escape from Lagos prediction. It was a close call as I closed in December, but it still counts as a win. I have a bunch of things to do before I can live in the house fulltime, but those are progressing. As is always the case, every small project turns out to be more involved than expected. Given that what comes next will be the 2024 predictions, I may write those up in the new place. If you are going to make predictions, do it from atop a mountain lair.
The lesson every year when I look at these predictions from the past year is that the safe bet is that current trends will continue. Something unexpected has to happen for a trend to stop or change direction. Those “black swan” events are rare, which is why we have the expression. Of course, it is all about perception. Many people saw the mortgage crisis coming, but the bankers did not and they were the driving force behind that trend so we got a crisis.
The things that are nearly impossible to predict are the stupid things that take on a life of their own, like the Ukraine war or Covid. The people responsible for these things passed dozens of warning signs and ignored the obvious choices in order to find the worst choice possible. It is not in our nature to think people can be this willfully stupid and destructive, so we cannot imagine such things. Yet, these are the people who rule over us, so they will determine what happens in 2024.
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