No One Votes For A Pay Cut

There were two main reasons why the the Scottish vote was not close. One is the staggeringly high welfare class in Scotland. It’s not Camden with kilts and bagpipes, but it is close. The only way that block was going for independence is if it meant bigger welfare checks and more entertainments. The very word “independence” is frightening to the under-class. Welfare types are not very bright, but they are clever. They know how the system works better than most. I’m sure in the welfare underground the math of this had been worked out long ago. They did the math.

Even if the size of the loafer class is exaggerated, there was never a compelling reason to leave. All the romantic crap about Braveheart is moving to some people, but most people want to live lives of quiet desperation. Most men do not want “to live deliberately and confront the essential facts of life.” Most men like things the way they are. It’s why the Left is winning the war on civilization. Once they push through some toppling of a institution, people get used to it.

This vote also provides a nice reminder of the dishonestly of polling. The polling companies need close races that appear to go back and forth. The press wants polls showing closes races. All of the incentives are pointing in one direction. Polling is not science. It is barely statistics. It’s how Research 2000 was able to sell fake polls to the Daily Kos so easily. The people at Kos want to believe so strongly, they lost the ability to see when they were being conned.

This vote was never close. The result is pretty much what early polling suggested. The press and the polling outfits wished otherwise and the inevitable momentum slowly collapsed the polls until we had a deadlock. By the standards of modern elections, this was a blowout. For the next week, the pollsters will spin the result focusing on what changed in the final days and how the winning side won and the losing side lost. Throw in a few conspiracy theories about rigged votes and the polling gets forgotten.

A Bad Breakup?

It is wise to be skeptical about the Scottish independence stuff. One is the polling showed the “No” vote winning handily. The funny thing about polls is the first ones tend to be right or at least close to right. The other reason is that it is hard to leave and there’s no obvious benefit. If sticking with the UK keeps the welfare checks coming, that vote’s not changing. If sticking with the UK secures the business interests, then nationalism is not changing those minds either.

But, here we are a little over a week out and they say the “Yes” vote is now in the lead.

THE YES CAMPAIGN is ahead in the Scottish referendum battle for the first time, according to a poll, amid signs of infighting among senior figures backing the union.

The YouGov research for the Sunday Times found 51% supported independence, compared to 49% who wanted to remain in the UK.

The results are the latest evidence of a dramatic surge for the Yes Scotland campaign, which has seen the gap between the sides – once regularly in double digits – vanish in a matter of months.

The YouGov poll showed the Yes vote increasing by four points, while No dropped by the same number.

The headline figures exclude those who would not vote or are undecided. With those groups included independence was backed by 47% and staying in the UK 45%.

The two point gap is within the margin of error for such polls, meaning the contest, which climaxes on September 18, is effectively too close to call.

That’s not a big lead or even a lead, given the nature of polling, but it has the elites worried all of a sudden. This Bloomberg story says the Brits are now offering bribes to swing the vote their way.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said a program to hand more powers to the Scottish Parliament if Scots vote No, offering Edinburgh more control over taxes, public spending and social policy, will be announced in the “next few days” as the London government responds to the shift in the polls. Talks are still ongoing on the detail of the proposal, his office said.

“It’s clear that Scotland wants more control over the decisions that affect Scotland,” Osborne said in a televised BBC interview. “The timetable for delivering that will be put into effect the moment there is a ‘no’ vote in the referendum. Then Scotland will have the best of both worlds. They will both avoid the risks of separation but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be.”

Just in case that’s not enough, the increasingly ridiculous Prime Minister says the Scots will be killed by Muslims if they vote for independence.

Scotland will be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks in a “very dangerous and insecure world” if it votes for independence on Sept. 18, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said.

Being part of a union gives Scots the protective benefits of being part of a larger country, Cameron told reporters at the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s summit in Newport, Wales, yesterday.

“With terrorist threats and other threats, isn’t it better to be part of a United Kingdom that has a top-five defense budget, some of the best intelligence and security services anywhere in the world, that is part of every single alliance that really matters in the world in terms of NATO, the G-8, the G-20, the European Union, a member of the security council of the UN?” Cameron said. “All those networks and abilities to work with allies to keep us safe. Isn’t it better to have those things than separate yourself from them?”

It’s oddly comforting to know that it is not just America with the idiotic scare mongering about Jihadis. It is a safe bet that ISIS does not give a damn about Scotland. They have bigger fish to fry. Further, the civilized world is not going to tell the Scots to pound sand if they ask for help with rooting terrorists out of their golf courses.

The best argument for hoping the Scots vote for independence is all the worst people are against it. The cult of economics swears the gods will reign terror upon us if the Scots vote for independence. All of the major parties in Britain are against it. The kleptocrats in Brussels are against it. When just about every loathsome creature on earth is against something, it is tempting to be for it. Admittedly, that’s not a great reason to be in favor of something.

War?

For a long time, war in Europe has been unthinkable. In the Cold War, conflict meant nuclear exchange and the end of the human race. Therefore, war with the Soviets was to be avoided at all costs. It was also assumed, correctly, that the Russians were not interested in war with the West, at least not a shooting war. Proxies such as Vietnam or various civil wars in the third world were as far as it could be allowed to go.

Once the Cold War ended, war was looking like a thing of the past. Hammering a crap hole from time to time was as far as it would go. Europe was into the end of history stuff and racing toward one worldism. If you talked about the Russian threat ten years ago, you were considered a nut. Heck, in the 2012 election, Obama mocked Romney for talking up the threat of Russia. The liberal media roared with laughter when Obama said “The 80’s called and they want their foreign policy back” in one of the debates.

Now, here we are with the very liberal Slate posting article about the looming war with Russia.

Over and over again—throughout the entirety of my adult life, or so it feels—I have been shown Polish photographs from the beautiful summer of 1939: The children playing in the sunshine, the fashionable women on Krakow streets. I have even seen a picture of a family wedding that took place in June 1939, in the garden of a Polish country house I now own. All of these pictures convey a sense of doom, for we know what happened next. September 1939 brought invasion from both east and west, occupation, chaos, destruction, genocide. Most of the people who attended that June wedding were soon dead or in exile. None of them ever returned to the house.

When you start with a reference to the looming Nazi onslaught, you know the rest of the article is going to be seriously grim.

In retrospect, all of them now look naive. Instead of celebrating weddings, they should have dropped everything, mobilized, prepared for total war while it was still possible. And now I have to ask: Should Ukrainians, in the summer of 2014, do the same? Should central Europeans join them?

I realize that this question sounds hysterical, and foolishly apocalyptic, to American or Western European readers. But hear me out, if only because this is a conversation many people in the eastern half of Europe are having right now. In the past few days, Russian troops bearing the flag of a previously unknown country, Novorossiya, have marched across the border of southeastern Ukraine. The Russian Academy of Sciences recently announced it will publish a history of Novorossiya this autumn, presumably tracing its origins back to Catherine the Great. Various maps of Novorossiya are said to be circulating in Moscow. Some include Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk, cities that are still hundreds of miles away from the fighting. Some place Novorossiya along the coast, so that it connects Russia to Crimea and eventually to Transnistria, the Russian-occupied province of Moldova. Even if it starts out as an unrecognized rump state—Abkhazia and South Ossetia, “states” that Russia carved out of Georgia, are the models here—Novorossiya can grow larger over time.

The thing about American politicians and strategists is they always assume the other guys think like they think. That’s been the problem with Ukraine. Close to zero people in the American foreign policy bubble have heard of “Novorossiya” or what the “Wild Fields” means to Russian nationalists. Anne Applebaum is clever and super connected to the neocon network, yet this is the first time she has written about this. This suggests that the Western foreign policy elite knows next to nothing about what’s going on in Russia today and they assume no one else does either.

That’s the scary part about this situation. It looks like the West is not just clueless about Russia, but almost in disbelief every time Putin makes a move. This story about Igor Strelkov is a good example. That part of the word has forever been dominated by out-sized and outlandish personalities. Just look at how the collapse of the Soviet Union unfolded. Boris Yeltsin was not a sober and cautious man, by any stretch of the imagination. Look at some of the characters in the “stans” or even in the Russian parliament.

Wars start for one of two reasons. One is the combatants don’t know what’s coming and blunder into war. The other is the combatants know exactly what is coming, but the stronger side will not be deterred. The American Civil War and the First World War are example of the former. If the participants had the benefit of foresight, they would have made different choices. The bloodbath may have happened under different conditions, I don’t know, but there’s no way people voluntarily submit to a mass kill-off.

That’s what’s scary about what’s unfolding with Russia and the West. The West has no idea what they are dealing with in Ukraine or with Putin. They think they can wage technological and financial war to force their preferred solution on Putin. On the other hand, Putin seems convinced the West is paralyzed by a lack of confidence. He can impose his preferred solution on the West with the force of arms. History says he is probably right in the short run, but the West is right in the long run.

What happens in between is the scary part.

Scottish Independence?

Next month, the Scots are going to vote on whether they remain in the UK. Americans have an image of Scotland as a combination of Groundskeeper Willy, Braveheart and Rob Roy, maybe playing golf in the rain. It is the image of rugged, independent men not yielding to anyone. The truth is nothing of the sort. The Scots are mostly broke men on the dole. Like the rest of the UK, they are a generation ahead of America in their march over the cliff. Voting for independence, therefore, seems like a clever joke.

By way of example, look at this story from the BBC.

The Scottish government has defended its controversial plan for a named guardian for every child in Scotland.

Speaking to the BBC, Children’s Minister Aileen Campbell said the policy would be rolled out across the country as planned in 2016.

She said it would help families in need and save taxpayers’ money.

Conservative MSP Gavin Brown said the policy would create a “giant bureaucracy” that would not help those most in need.

MSPs approved the Children and Young People Scotland Bill, which includes legislation to create a “named person” for every child in the country, in February.

The policy is already in place in a number of areas, including the Highlands, Edinburgh and Ayrshire, but is not due to be extended to the rest of Scotland until 2016.

The Scottish government has said the legislation would stop vulnerable children slipping through the net and give families a point of contact should they need assistance.

Earlier this month, ministers announced £40m in funding for 500 new health visitor posts to meet the demands of the policy, which will cover children from birth to the age of 18.

Midwives and senior teachers could also be named guardians, depending on the age of the child.

In case it is not clear, they are planning to assign a government minder to each child at birth.

Religious groups have raised concerns around the diminishing role of parents and the Christian Institute is preparing to mount a judicial review against the move.

The group has asked the Scottish government not to implement the “named person” element of the bill until the outcome of the legal action is known.

Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Politics Scotland programme, Ms Campbell said the policy was supported by many organisations and would go ahead as planned since there was “no good reason” to delay.

She added: “This is about embedding good practice. We’ve seen [from pilots] that this reduces bureaucracy and allows professionals to intervene where families most at need require additional support. We’ve seen a reduction in inappropriate referrals to reporters – it saves money.

“The cost to the public purse of not doing these things is that problems escalate into crisis and that’s something we want to avoid. This supports parents and responds to what parents have told us they want.”

She said nothing in the legislation affected parents’ rights.

If you are wondering about those Christians, about 55% of Scots identify as Christian and about 40% claim to be irreligious or have no religion at all. The young are hardly religious and only 8% of the population attends weekly services. Those Christian groups have as much influence as Rastafarian groups.

Not that it matters. The Scots, like people all over the Occident, are throwing in the towel on civilization. The Scottish fertility rate is 1.7. More Scots die every year than are born and uncontrolled immigration will soon swamp the country in hostile foreigners. If you dig through the official figures, a country of 5 million is bringing in 250,000 foreigners each year. It is the foreign population having the babies. Simple math says the Scots are going the way of the dodo.

National Suicide, American Style

 

This was posted on National Review Online, but they seem to be the only people making an issue of it. A quick Google search and there are more comprehensive stories about the event. This one is representative.

Dueling protests between hundreds of supporters of Israel and the Palestinians briefly snarled downtown traffic Tuesday afternoon, while diplomats wrangled over the conflict in Gaza thousands of miles away.

A crowd of pro-Israel demonstrators, many toting the blue-and-white flag of the Jewish state, gathered in front of Chicago’s Israeli consulate on Madison Street for what organizers billed as a call for peace. A large group of supporters of Palestinians, with a public-address system and flags of their own, gathered on the next block just days after thousands marched downtown to protest Israeli military action.

The tense scene was observed by a phalanx of police personnel — uniformed and plainclothes, federal and local — who segregated the two sides with steel gates, bicycle-mounted officers and cruisers.

Officers searched the bags of pro-Israel demonstrators who entered that rally zone, while a string of equine patrol officers ringed part of the pro-Palestinian side. Police K-9 units moved through the protesters, amid the blare of sirens, chanting and hovering helicopters.

“I’m Israeli. I support my country, and I want to stop any aggression from Hamas,” said Chicago resident Alex Paz, who was among the many demonstrators calling for an end to the conflict.

“If I knew how to stop it, I would probably be prime minister,” Paz said. “My opinion is it should be stopped, instead of being scared of missiles at night.”

Alex Paz is probably a fine fellow, but what is he doing in Chicago? Why are we permitting a foreign national to make a nuisance of himself in one of our cities?

Meanwhile, across the street, suburban resident Qais Salah, 17, said much of his father’s family is trying to avoid airstrikes in the Gaza Strip.

“My grandfather got sick because of how many times he’s got to run outside the house, because Israel calls him and tells him they’re about to bomb the house and he’s got three minutes to leave,” Salah said. “But where can they run? Gaza’s small, they’ve got nowhere to go and everywhere’s being bombed.”

Qais Salah is probably a wonderful young man too, but why is he here? Can anyone find a single citizen of Chicago who was demanding we import young men from Gaza, Israel and wherever? What possible reason could there be for our State Department to issue travel documents to a young man from Gaza? It’s not as if the region is know for its tranquility. Why are we importing these problems?

Look, you can be partial to Israel and wish her the best. of all the countries in that region, Israel is the most Western. Next would be the Lebanese and then maybe the Turks or possibly the Jordanians. Still, they are not Western and their issues are not our problem to solve. I the government wants to sell them guns so they can fight one another, that’s fine, but importing these people into this country is nothing more than national suicide. There’s no reason for it.

The Bear Makes Its Move

America’s ruling elite is divided into two camps when it comes to foreign policy. One side, the neocons, sees the world as a collection of American provinces. Maybe administrative districts is a better term. They really thought they could turn Iraq into a fully functioning representative democracy. Not only that, they thought it could be a model for the rest of the Arab world district.

The other camp is composed of people who think the other camp is dangerously wrong, but have no earthly idea why and they have no sensible alternative to offer. It is why Obama pulled the plug on the Bush deal in Iraq and went tromping off to Afghanistan. He and his flunkies had no idea what they were trying to accomplish. They just knew the old Bush hands hated it so that was enough.

The rest of the world is not willing to wait around for America’s elites to figure out what their doing. Russia, in particular, is taking advantage of the Obama administration’s petrified paralysis. Last year they made Obama look foolish by outflanking him in Syria. Putin followed that up with a stunning success in Ukraine. Now they are taking advantage of Washington’s bungling to return Iraq as an ally in the Persian Gulf.

The first delivery of Russian Sukhoi fighter jets arrived in Iraq on Saturday, the country’s Defense Ministry said. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is hoping the jets will make a key difference in the fight against ISIS.

The Iraqi Ministry of Defense on Sunday confirmed receiving five Su-25 fighter jets in accordance with the deal with Moscow. The jets were delivered by a Russian An-124 transport plane in a dismantled state, and are expected to be set up and become operational within 3-4 days.

Until Bush the Lesser dethroned Saddam, Iraq was a Russian client state. Their military was equipped by the Russians and trained in Russian tactics. It is why they were good at running a secret police, but clownishly awful at large set piece combat. The Russians were never good at this type of warfare, which is why the Germans drove them to the gates of Moscow. They are much better at operating a police state.

Now, the Russians have Syria, Iran and Iraq on board and that means they can build their pipelines without too much interference from the West. Running gas from the Persian Gulf through Iran to the Caspian Sea was never ideal and would allow the GCC-Saudi deal to compete on economic grounds. Running a pipeline over Iraq into Syria puts them in the Mediterranean. The only thing they must now do is get rid of ISIL, which is probably backed by Israel and the CIA.

The other bonus for Russia is they get to work on their modernization efforts. The Russians have been revamping their military and their tactics to face the threats of this century. They know they will not be fighting a tank war in Europe. Instead they will be fighting insurgents from their southeast. They saw how the Americans adapted and they are doing the same. Iraq is good practice.

“The Sukhoi Su-25 is an air-ground support and anti-terrorism mission aircraft. In these difficult times, we are in great need of such aircraft. With God’s help, we will be able to deploy them to support our ground forces on a mission against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant militants within the next 3-4 days,” Iraqi Army Lieutenant General Anwar Hamad Amen Ahmed told RT’s Ruptly news agency at an airport receiving the jets.

The modern battlefield is four dimensional. Air assets attack ground elements with the help of specialized ground forces. That means choppers and jet aircraft that can be coordinated with those ground forces to bring timely and potent firepower on small targets. It takes practice to hone these skills and this provides the Russians with a chance to gets some saddle time.

There’s also the fact the Russians will increasingly rely on mercenaries. Demographics are reducing the number of Russian males available for military service. The Russian military is close to being majority Muslim at this point. The solution to this is to create a military with a Russian elite and a Muslim militia. I doubt that works, but Iraq provides a training ground for how they intend to adjust to the demographic realities they face.

Nobody Knows the Mind of the Bear

Paul Craig Roberts is an old paleocon, who used to be a regular on the talk radio circuit as a gadfly on foreign affairs. Like a lot of these guys, he has been slowly marginalized to the point where he has no mainstream outlets. if were up to the neocons, these guys would be reduced to using mimeograph machines and handing out their columns on street corners. Anyway, has an interesting take on the current mess in Ukraine.

Washington has no intention of allowing the crisis in Ukraine to be resolved. Having failed to seize the country and evict Russia from its Black Sea naval base, Washington sees new opportunities in the crisis.

One is to restart the Cold War by forcing the Russian government to occupy the Russian-speaking areas of present day Ukraine where protesters are objecting to the stooge anti-Russian government installed in Kiev by the American coup. These areas of Ukraine are former constituent parts of Russia herself. They were attached to Ukraine by Soviet leaders in the 20th century when both Ukraine and Russia were part of the same country, the USSR.

This is a popular refrain from paleocons, but there’s good reason top be skeptical about these Machiavellian schemes. Our princes are all that clever. They can reason through the here and now and even plot a few steps ahead, but anything beyond a couple of moves and they get into trouble. The State Department was mucking around in Ukraine thinking they had things under control. Then they didn’t and Putin found himself with a golden ticket to claw back some territory.

Essentially, the protesters have established independent governments in the cities. The police and military units sent to suppress the protesters, called “terrorists” in the American fashion, for the most part have until now defected to the protesters.

With Obama’s incompetent White House and State Department having botched Washington’s takeover of Ukraine, Washington has been at work shifting the blame to Russia. According to Washington and its presstitute media, the protests are orchestrated by the Russian government and have no sincere basis. If Russia sends in military units to protect the Russian citizens in the former Russian territories, the act will be used by Washington to confirm Washington’s propaganda of a Russian invasion (as in the case of Georgia), and Russia will be further demonized.

That’s the issue. If Team Obama is a bunch of bunglers, then it is hard to argue they have some clever plots going on to restart the Cold War.  On the other hand, they could simply be bunglers, deceived by the permanent foreign policy community. So maybe that’s what he is getting at here. On the other hand, there are old ethnic interests at work here, so the deep state could be even deeper that the State Department.

The Russian government is in a predicament. Moscow does not want financial responsibility for these territories but cannot stand aside and permit Russians to be put down by force. The Russian government has attempted to keep Ukraine intact, relying on the forthcoming elections in Ukraine to bring to office more realistic leaders than the stooges installed by Washington.

However, Washington does not want an election that might replace its stooges and return to cooperating with Russia to resolve the situation. There is a good chance that Washington will tell its stooges in Kiev to declare that the crisis brought to Ukraine by Russia prevents an election. Washington’s NATO puppet states would back up this claim.

It is almost certain that despite the Russian government’s hopes, the Russian government is faced with the continuation of both the crisis and Washington puppet government in Ukraine.

This is the interesting bit. No one wants to leave things in the hands of the voters, as they may vote for their own interests. That’s an important lesson of history. Elites are all for democracy as long as they can predict and control the results. The French, Germans, Americans and Russians will be spreading around money and hit-men between now and the election, trying to get a favorable result.

On May 1 Washington’s former ambassador to Russia, now NATO’s “second-in-command” but the person who, being American, calls the shots, has declared Russia to no longer be a partner but an enemy. The American, Alexander Vershbow, told journalists that NATO has given up on “drawing Moscow closer” and soon will deploy a large number of combat forces in Eastern Europe. Vershbow called this aggressive policy deployment of “defensive assets to the region.”

In other words, here we have again the lie that the Russian government is going to forget all about its difficulties in Ukraine and launch attacks on Poland, the Baltic States, Romania., Moldova, and on the central Asian states of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The dissembler Vershbow wants to modernize the militaries of these American puppet states and “seize the opportunity to create the reality on the ground by accepting membership of aspirant countries into NATO.”

The War on Terror is winding down and a whole lot of folks will be looking for new dragons to slay. It is an old problem. A nation ramps up for war and then finds itself with a whole bunch of restless warriors looking for something to do. American motorcycle gangs are a result of World War II vets coming home and looking for action. Today, the decommissioned warriors are guys with advanced degrees and wearing suits.

Instead of buying a Harley and looking for action, they take a job at some quasi-government outfit full of ex-Seals and former intel guys. Maybe they end up at a defense contractor. Companies like this rely on their contacts to get contracts for dirty jobs like sending vehicles to Georgia as they prepare for war with Russia. War is a business and there are lots of people in the war business.

The time is approaching when Russia will either have to act to terminate the crisis or accept an ongoing crisis and distraction in its backyard. Kiev has launched military airstrikes on protesters in Slavyansk. On May 2 Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Kiev’s resort to violence had destroyed the hope for the Geneva agreement on de-escalating the crisis. Yet, the Russian government spokesman again expressed the hope of the Russian government that European governments and Washington will put a stop to the military strikes and pressure the Kiev government to accommodate the protesters in a way that keeps Ukraine together and restores friendly relations with Russia.

This is where the Western mind goes wrong. In Eurasia, waiting is the preferred strategy. In fact, it was the basis of Russian military tactics for close to a century. Let the enemy wear himself out attacking you then counter-attack in force. Putin most likely sees no advantage to doing anything but waiting for the West to make another mistake or run out of steam. If he is wrong, not much changes on the ground. If he is right, he can advance his cause a little more.

This is a false hope. It assumes that the Wolfowitz doctrine is just words, but it is not. The Wolfowitz doctrine is the basis of US policy toward Russia (and China). The doctrine regards any power sufficiently strong to remain independent of Washington’s influence to be “hostile.” The doctrine states:

“Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.”

The Wolfowitz doctrine justifies Washington’s dominance of all regions. It is consistent with the neoconservative ideology of the US as the “indispensable” and “exceptional” country entitled to world hegemony.

Maybe, but it also looks like elements of the American ruling class are flinching at the price tag. Empire is expensive and the public appears unwilling to pay forever. The marginal return on investment of Poland is infinity higher than Ukraine. What we may actually be seeing is the water’s edge. The benefits from expanding empire further east are far outweighed by the cost. Russia is just not worth all that much.

Ivan Getting Smarter

There’s an old saying about the military always preparing to fight the last war. Usually when you hear it is from a retired military guy on TV criticizing something. If only the military had listened to guys like him they would not be in whatever mess they are current in at the moment. There’s another side to it, of course. Sometimes, a nation will learn from a war they were not involved. We see that with the Russians.

Elite Russian troops are displaying a new arsenal of body armor, individual weapons, armor-piercing ammunition and collar radios — a menu of essential gear that gives them a big tactical advantage against a lesser-equipped Ukrainian army.

If President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion, the new-generation body armor, in particular, would provide exceptional protection against small arms if Russian troops go street by street to capture Kiev and other cities.

“What we saw and what was dangled in front of the West was a clear indication that Putin is on a roll,” retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales said. “It just seems to me from watching the films that their arrows are pointing up and ours are sadly pointing down.”Weapons specialists such as Gen. Scales have been studying images of Spetsnaz, Russia’s ubiquitous special forces, and airborne troops since they conquered the Crimea region and mobilized to strike eastern Ukraine.

What they see are the fruits of a modernization plan begun in 2008, not just in tanks and vehicles but all the way down to the individual warrior. Russia now has the world’s third-highest defense budget, at over $70 billion.

“They’ve got better equipment than they had five years ago,” said Scott Traudt, an executive with Green Mountain, a Vermont gun manufacturer. “They’ve got new grenade launchers that are awesome. The helmets are better than our helmets. The body armor is better than our body armor. They’re doing a lot of things right. I’m pretty amazed at it.”

The Russians watched how American forces were able to overcome insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Superior equipment allowed for superior tactics. Instead of hunting bad guys from choppers as the Russians did in Afghanistan, the Americans could get up close and personal. Having body armor, advanced electronics and coordinated assets, the superior warrior could go right at the insurgents, without getting into a war of attrition. In Fallujah the kill ratio was 50:1.

Russian military tactics have always been a reflection of their history. The deep battle philosophy developed by the Soviets was a sort of punch-counter-punch approach to war. Big sweeping victories were not the aim. Rather, the premium was on holding territory, while putting pressure on the enemy. For a country that always looked at their people as a surplus, it made some sense. In modern mobile warfare where holding strategic assets is the key to victory, this is not a useful strategy.

Mr. Traudt is paying special attention to the body armor because it presents a big challenge to rifle and munition makers. It might be able to deflect NATO’s basic 5.56 mm rifle round. If so, Ukrainian soldiers face a daunting task because their AK-74 assault rifles fire a similar munition.

The Russians, in their new 6B43 model body armor, issued chest and back plates made of titanium and hard carbide boron ceramics.

“The stuff they have is impervious to 5.56, whereas our body armor is not completely proven against their weapons,” Gen. Scales said.Gen. Scales said the Russians carry AK-74s whose magazine is loaded with 5.45 “steel core” ammunition — a round that on April 8 the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives banned from importation because the agency deemed it armor-piercing.

Gen. Scales described the 5.45 as “extremely lethal against any kind of body armor.”

While some national leaders focus on big defense issues, Mr. Putin has taken a personal interest in one of the smallest: the rifle. Last year, his government consolidated rifle manufacturing into one new firm, the Kalashnikov Corp., named after the AK’s famous inventor, Mikhail Kalashnikov.

Putin actually goes out and shoots these things,” Gen. Scales said.

U.S. soldiers have complained that their main rifle and round, the M4 carbine and its 5.56, lacked lethality in Afghanistan against a Taliban enemy that does not often wear body armor. Without a shot to the head, the enemy could take several 5.56 hits and keep going, soldiers said in surveys.

“If the Russians are coming across mechanized, with airborne and infantry units wearing their body armor, it basically means the Ukrainian rifles have no ability to penetrate the body armor worn by the Russian troops, meaning you’re talking about having to shoot somebody six, seven, eight times, in the chest,” Mr. Traudt said. “They’re going to get bumped, but there’s no lethality involved.”

I think it is far to assume Ivan has been watching the Americans and learning for the last decade. Instead of rolling in tanks and blowing stuff up to intimidate the enemy, they will be looking to seize strategic assets and neutralize the enemy fighters. Given the ideological drift, the goal will not be the conquest of Ukraine, but neutralization. If they can provoke a conflict, they can seize the Russian speaking regions and then gut the Ukrainian military. That effectively ends this drama.

The New Russia

This is a very interesting post on Russia and what’s going on in Eurasia. It is one of the rare times an intellectual makes mention of the peculiar American habit of assuming everyone is just like America. Despite the yapping about diversity and vibrancy, American elites see the world as a reflection of their idealized selves. When they look out at the world they think, “They want what we want, they hate what we hate and they will be just like us if give the chance.”

I’ll elaborate what Putinism actually is, but before I do, it’s important to understand why President Obama and countless other Westerners cannot see what is right before them. Putin and the Kremlin actively parrot their propaganda, they are doing anything but hide it, yet we still cannot make it out.

This is simply because we are WEIRD. That’s social science shorthand for Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic – and nobody is WEIRDer than Americans. In the last several decades many Americans, and essentially all our elites, have internalized a worldview based on affluence, individualism, and secularism that makes us unique, globally speaking. So much so that we seem unable to comprehend that there actually are opposing viewpoints out there.

Barack Obama, by virtue of his diverse ethnic and religious background and elite education, is almost an ideal stand-in for the WEIRD demographic, as he embodies so many things WEIRDos admire: education, affluence, diversity, progressive social views, etc. He comes close to being almost the perfect post-modern American, which perhaps is why so many Americans of that bent adore him deeply. Thus when President Obama says he detects no ideological rivalry with Putin’s Russia, he undoubtedly speaks the truth as he sees it.

Americans of all stripes have a well-honed ability to ignore inconvenient facts, and our better educated citizens seem particularly prone to this (as I noted with our “expert” inability to see what North Korea believes, even though they aren’t shy about it). At root, I suspect Obama and many Americans refuse to accept the in-our-face reality of Putin and his regime because they represent a past version of ourselves, caught up in retrograde views that are entirely unacceptable to our elites, therefore they pretend they do not exist, because they don’t actually exist in their world.

Simply put, Vladimir Putin is the stuff of Western progressive nightmares because he’s what they thought they’d gotten past. He’s a traditional male with “outmoded” views on, well, everything: gender relations, race, sexual identity, faith, the use of violence, the whole retrograde package. Putin at some level is the Old White Guy that post-moderns fear and loathe, except this one happens to control the largest country on earth plus several thousand nuclear weapons – and he hates us.

Steve Sailer has pointed out quite a few times that American elites seem to have the biggest problem with Putin over homosexuals. Over the last two decades, having a homosexual on your piety bracelet has been the hallmark of Progressive fashion. It is so well established now that it is inconceivable to them that any civilized person would have a contrary opinion on homosexual marriage, homosexual rights and so forth.

Of course, this also happens to explain why some Westerners who loathe post-modernism positively love Putin, at least from a safe distance. Some far-right Westerners – the accurate term is paleoconservatives – have been saying for years that the West, led very much by America, has become hopelessly decadent and they’ve been looking for a leader to counter all this, and – lo and behold – here he is, the new “leader of global conservatism.” Some paleocons have stated that, with the end of the Cold War, America has become the global revolutionary power, seeking to foist its post-modern views on the whole planet, by force if necessary, and now Putin’s Russia has emerged as the counterrevolutionary element. Cold War 2.0, in this telling, has the sides reversed.

I’m skeptical of all that, but it is important to note that the post-modernism about cultural and social matters that has become the default setting in the West in the last couple decades has had a hard time putting down roots in Eastern Europe. It’s an odd fact that living under the Old Left (i.e. Marxism-Leninism) inoculated Eastern Europeans from much of the New Left of the 1960s and after, with its emphasis on gender, sexuality, and race. “Critical Studies” didn’t get far with people who had to live under the KGB; indeed, East Bloc secret police in the 1980s viewed all this – the feminism and the gay rights stuff especially – as bourgeois deviance and a subversive Western import. Since 1990, Western countries have made actual efforts to import that, but it’s met a lot of resistance, and doesn’t make much of an impression outside educated circles; which is why when educated Westerners meet, say, educated Poles, “they seem just like us” – because they have accepted, verbatim, what we’ve told them is normative in a “developed” society.

Since as far back as we have records, “religion” and “culture” have been tangled up together. The Vikings, for example, lacked a word for religion. They had two words that roughly meant “cult” but did not carry the connotation they do today. The word “custom” is more accurate. People had private customs for how they appeased the gods. These were limited the family, the clan and the village.

Public customs were how everyone participated in worship of the gods. These customs were intimately tangled up in the identity of the people. It is how they defined themselves and gave meaning and purpose to their lives. It was why they got up in the morning, so to speak. It is also what bound them together, despite their private rituals and customs. It was a reflection of their blood ties as people.

The Russians had a perfectly good set of customs that defined who they were as people. Bolshevism came along and obliterated much of it, but replaced it with a new religion, Marxist-Leninism. Here we are two decades after the fall of communism and the Russians seem to be settling on a set of replacements.

They tried liberal democracy in the 1990’s and into the 2000’s. That resulted in falling birth rates, drug abuse, Americans adopting what few children they had and humiliation on the world stage. Whatever you want to call this new organizing faith, it clearly is a rejection of American Progressivism.

Resisting Western post-modernism on a cultural level is but one component of Putinism, albeit an important one. What comes first, however, is an emphasis on national sovereignty, meaning a more traditional, indeed Westphalian, view of state power and non-interference in others’ affairs. That Putin has stolen Crimea indicates that Moscow’s views on this are highly conditional. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Putin’s regular incantations of the need for respect for sovereignty, which are of course aimed directly at the United States, which Russia views as a hypocrite of the highest order in international affairs, are popular among other regional powers who fear U.S. military might, especially China and India. Moreover, Putin would no doubt argue that his seizing Crimea is in no way a violation of sovereignty since Ukraine is not a legitimate country in the first place (an interview last year where Putin referred to Ukraine as a mere “territory” did not get the attention abroad that it merited). For most Russians, all this falls under the need to restore national honor after the disasters of the 1990s, and is to be applauded heartily. Additionally, there are plenty of people in the world who don’t like Putin or Russia, yet who are happy that someone, somewhere is standing up to American hegemony.

Nationalism matters too. This is a tricky issue in Russia, which possesses some 185 recognized ethnic groups and many religions, with ethnic Russians making up but four-fifths of the population, and that figure is declining. Until recently, Putin had done a good job of promoting state patriotism and a Muscovite sort of multiculturalism that celebrates citizens of the Russian Federation, of any ethnicity or religion, as long as they accept Kremlin rule; that this bears little resemblance to post-modern Western notions of “tolerance” and “diversity” should be obvious. All the same, hardline Russian ethno-nationalists, local equivalents of David Duke, have regularly faced arrest in Putin’s Russia, which has feared setting off ethnic disputes that could turn explosive quickly.

Yet the reconquest of Crimea has caused a clear change of tone in Moscow, with celebration of old fashioned Russian nationalism coming into fashion. In his speech to the Duma announcing the triumphant annexation of Crimea, when speaking of Russians, Putin specifically used the ethnic term – russkiy –  not the more inclusive rossiyskiy, which applies to all citizens of the Russian Federation. This came among incantations to the full Great Russian program, with a Moscow-centric view of Eastern Europe seemingly endorsed by mentions of great Orthodox saints. Unstated yet clearly, this was all of a piece with “Third Rome” ideology, a powerful admixture of Orthodoxy, ethnic mysticism, and Slavophile tendencies that has deep resonance in Russian history.

Westerners seemed shocked by this “Holy Russia” stuff, but Putin has been dropping unsubtle hints for years that his state ideology includes a good amount of this back-to-the-future thinking, cloaked in piety and nationalism. Western “experts”  continue to state that a major influence here is Aleksandr Dugin, an eccentric philosopher who espouses “Eurasianism,” an odd blend of geopolitical theory and neo-fascism. While Dugin is not irrelevant, his star at the Kremlin actually faded a decade ago, though he gets some Kremlin attention because his father was a GRU general. Far more important to divining Putin’s worldview, however, is Ivan Ilyin, a Russian political and religious thinker who fled the Bolsheviks and died an emigre in Switzerland in 1953. In exile, Ilyin espoused ethnic-religious neo-traditionalism, amidst much talk about a unique “Russian soul.” Germanely, he believed that Russia would recover from the Bolshevik nightmare and rediscover itself, first spiritually then politically, thereby saving the world. Putin’s admiration for Ilyin is unconcealed: he has mentioned him in several major speeches and he had his body repatriated and buried at the famous Donskoy monastery with fanfare in 2005; Putin personally paid for a new headstone. Yet despite the fact that even Kremlin outlets note the importance of Ilyin to Putin’s worldview, not many Westerners have noticed.

This is fundamentally why Obama has been repeatedly humiliated by Putin. It is not simply that Obama is a klutz. While it is true that American foreign policy is run by rather foolish people with little going for them other than useless credentials, the real reason is Putin needs to do it. His NYTimes piece after outfoxing Obama over Syria was more than a victory lap. It was a signal to his people that he is not just smarter than the American leader. it’s that he is leading a special people, the Russian people.