As is tradition, the last post of the year is a review of and comment upon the predictions made in the first post of this year. Normally, the results are mixed, as even the most cautious prognosticator gets some things wrong. Caution is the key to being good at making predictions. Assume that nothing will happen, your dreams will be dashed, and everything will continue as before. You will be right ninety percent of the time, and you can pretend to be smart.
My biggest miss this year was the election. I did not think Trump could make it through the defensive lines of the system, but the guy not only beat the regime, he literally dodged bullets. This is an example of something no one could see coming, but a few people took a flyer on it and now walk around with their chest puffed out thinking they can see the future. The 2024 election is a good argument in favor of the idea we live in a simulation tinkered with by the people running it.
I also got the Democrat side wrong. Years of predicting Biden’s death by God or by the regime came up dry, so I finally capitulated and predicted Biden would continue but then he gets shoved aside. This gets overshadowed by the Trump drama but having a sitting president forced out of the race in the middle of the night is another one of those things that suggests we live in a simulation. Instead of just killing him off or having him retire gracefully, they staged a crazy weekend drama.
Another loser was my prediction on Argentina. I said the revolt would begin in the summer, but so far, no revolt. There were huge protests in the spring and summer, but no revolution. There are weird things turning up in the countryside, like a military base being sacked by an unknown guerilla group, but despite a lot of bad things happening in the economy, no revolt yet. This is one that you can keep betting, because history says it eventually ends in chaos.
I also got the whole Ozark Mountain Shark thing wrong. Paul did not have to start a cooking channel either, mostly due to the failure of Ozark Mountain Shark to make its appearance, but that was a risky call. Similarly, the Lagos sportsball squad did not win the Super Cup, The Dodgers won the Global Series, and the English Premier League escaped bankruptcy. There is money to be made betting the other way on my sports bets, as they are never right.
On the winning side of the ledger, I got the inflation story about as right as possible without being a genuine seer. The Fed has missed the mark, but they seem to have decided that it is easier to lie about the economic figures than to solve the problem of too much credit money in the system. The real inflation rate is probably double their target, but until the politicians start making noises, the Fed can live with it. Whether the rest of us can live with it is to be determined.
My Middle East predictions were spot on, even my call about the change in Saudi – American relations. The Saudis let the petrodollar agreement expire, which will be the thing to watch in 2025. In fact, the biggest mess Trump inherits in his second term is a Middle East that is bleeped up even by the standards of the Middle East. It is all bad options that are made worse by terrible relations with Russia and China. It could easily gobble up his term if he is not careful.
Another winner was the snapback on the antiwhite stuff. This was on display in the debate over Christmas regarding infinity Indians. The antiwhite pogroms have had one unintended effect and that is with regards to immigration, people are asking who is coming in, not just how many and how. People are now perfectly comfortable saying they do not want to live around Indians. This is a massive change that seems to have stunned the great and the good last week.
I was also right about the entertainment rackets. This is one where you bet the trend continuing as the safe play. The people who supposedly make a living on their ability to read the room seem to be the last to notice the change in white attitudes. This year was a string of stunning failures and laughable efforts. Hollywood is mostly about a few flashy films arbitraging the Asian market, so they are not going bankrupt, but that scam will not last for much longer.
The final prediction was on the Ukraine war. I got it about half right, but I underestimated the stupidity of Zelensky. They should have capitulated this year, but greed and madness can overcome anything for a while. The Russians have continued to grind up the Ukraine army as I predicted. What you hear from the Russians is they are looking to wrap up the war in the summer of 2025. Maybe they think Trump will do a deal or maybe they think they just win.
Overall, it was probably the worst year for picks since I have been doing this, primarily because I broke the golden rule of predictions. That and I bet against Trump, who has proven to be a world historical figure. People should probably keep that in mind when predicting what Trump will do in 2025. He is not only a once in a lifetime figure, but a guy who seems to have a destiny that defies explanation. Dismissing his claims about his next term is probably not wise.
Predictions aside, 2024 will go down as one of the most consequential years in history, simply for the elections. What comes as a result will be gravy. Add in the events around the world and holodeck developers in the next century will be offering a trip through 2024 in their premium package. It explains why it suddenly feels like the morning after a great storm. The calmness of nature is more intense, because the violence of the previous night is still fresh in our minds.
The coming year will initially feel like a year of nothing happening. It could also be the start of a great interregnum when the loonies go back into hibernation and normal people are once again able to speak freely. Either way, it will be tempting to think that the war is over, but we must resist this. The kooks are out there. They can’t be bargained with. They can’t be reasoned with. They feel no pity, or remorse, or fear and they absolutely will not stop… ever, until you are dead!
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