One of the funny things about history is we have the benefit of hindsight and a good idea of how we want to shape it to fit our current needs, so we can choose who we like to be the great men of history. We also get to choose clever labels for certain periods that elevate them over other periods. The Age of Enlightenment sounds better than the Dark Ages and it flatters us to think we are the product of people who struggled from the muck of latter to create the former.
Of course, the people who lived in these times had a different view. The most famous example is the life of Jesus. Few people at the time cared at all about this man or even knew he existed. His followers, if anyone bothered to notice them, were just a number of such troublemakers kicking around at the time. Even after Christianity started catching on, most people saw it as another cult in an age of cults. Men of the first century would be shocked to learn they lived in the first century.
This is why we get our own age wrong. We want to think it is important, so we look for people and events to elevate, often not noticing men and events that will one day be considered the important bits of our age. Those old enough to remember the 1980’s marvel a bit at the changing fortunes of Ronald Reagan. At the time, it certainly seemed like he was a seminal figure. Now, he is looking like part of a transitional period from the Cold War to the ultimate decline of the American empire.
Probably the best example of this form of recency bias is Barak Obama. His fans at the time thought he was black Jesus. He was not just the first black president, but all the three letter heroes rolled into one swarthy savior. He was FDR, JFK, RFK and MLK with a dash of Lincoln thrown in due to having lived in Illinois. Less than a decade since he left office, he is a fading memory. His stumping for Kamala Harris in the election drew little media attention and had zero impact.
The truth is the great men of history are usually the epitome of some inflection point in the affairs of man. The communists are wrong to say that there are no great men, just great times that produce the necessary men. If someone bought one of Adolph’s paintings our past and present is very different. If Alfred the Great did not exist this post is written in runes rather than the English language. On the other hand, momentous times call forth the great man. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
It is hard to know if we are living in a momentous time. It certainly feels like it, but these are relative things. Again, the 1980’s felt like the hinge of history. The Cold War and thus the fate of the world would be decided. It is now looking like the Cold War will not be viewed as all that important in the grand scheme of things. Maybe the convulsions of this age will similarly be viewed as a ripple in the timeline. On the other hand, last night could be a date people recall generations from now.
On the surface, it certainly looks like Trump is an important figure. Only one other president came back after a defeat to regain the White House. Grover Cleveland lost in 1888 and came back to win in 1892. Only a few former presidents have bothered to run again for anything, and their luck was all bad. This means Trump is now a “one of two” which is the second rarest of things in history. He is also the one of one in other things like impeachments and getting shot in the ear.
The Grover Cleveland example is a good reminder that being the first at something or even the only of something does not make for a great man. If Trump’s next term is quiet, then he could just as easily be forgotten. Given the circumstances around his political career, that seems unlikely. That is where the other part of the great man versus great times debate comes into the picture. This is a changing age. The world is changing, and the American civilization is changing with it.
That means future historians will no doubt pick some date or presidency to mark as the beginning of the change and then one as the end. Somewhere in that range will be Donald Trump or possibly, he is both ends of that range. We may look back at the Trump Era as the great transition from the post-Cold War America to whatever we call the period that comes next. Maybe it is called the multipolar age. It could also be the break from old America to the new, majority-minority America.
Again, it is hard to know about these things, but one thing we can be sure about is that we will not see another Donald Trump. Like the civilization that produced him, he has his faults, but those faults do not lie in anything sinister. No one has seen or will ever see a force of nature like this man. He is a Nietzschean figure in that he has fully embraced his destiny and lived it. He probably started his political career for superficial reasons, but in the end, he is the great man of his age.
As is always the case there will be plenty of people rending their garments and gnashing their teeth today. The “fascists” have won they will tell us, as they enjoy their luxurious lives of comfort. Others will seek to immiserate you by pulling forward their expected unhappiness so they can be miserable today. The rest will soak in the moment of having seen something no one will see again. It has been a dark and dangerous time but, well, e quindi uscimmo a riveder le stelle.
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