Clinton Math

The radio guy John Batchelor followed me on twitter so I followed him back and tuned into his program a few times. I do not listen to a lot of talk radio and I have only listed to this program a handful of times. My sense is that he, like most pundits, is bearish on Donald Trump. I could be wrong here, but my sense is he is in tune with the conventional wisdom which says Trump has no chance to beat Clinton. Even though polls look good for Trump, the feeling is the deck is stacked against him.

One reason I think the conventional wisdom is wrong is they keep referring to the Red State/Blue State model as if it were written in stone and handed down by the gods. Batchelor keeps mentioning it in his analysis. It is a very weird thing about the modern age, but people struggle to remember anything past a decade or so. It is as if the present were permanent, never having changed and never changing. I am not that old and I remember when elections were nothing like the Red State/Blue State model.

The other odd thing, something that you see on the Left all the time, is the absolute belief that the future is now. Progressives have been dreaming of the demographic paradise when America is majority-minority for so long, they seem to think it has happened. Maybe it is just honkyphobia, but they carry on like blacks and Hispanics have a veto over our elections. America is still roughly 70% white and many Hispanics prefer to ID as white, when given the choice.

Of course, there’s the elephant in the room. Hillary Clinton is the most unappealing candidate to lead a party since Mike Dukakis. Frankly, I am probably being unfair to Dukakis, who was honest, but cursed with a dull personality. Hillary is a shrieking harpy, who makes your skin crawl. If you had her pop out of a closet in a haunted house, the authorities would shut it down for public safety reasons. To normal men, testicular cancer is more appealing than Clinton.

The bigger issue is the math problem. Here’s the back of the envelope demographic breakdown of the 2012 vote:

Demographic Group % of Vote Obama Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 73.7% 39.0% 28.7%
The Sacred People 13.4% 99.0% 13.3%
The New Sacred People 8.4% 75.0% 6.3%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.8% 71.0% 2.7%
Totals 99.3% 51.0%

I’m pulling this from census data and there are some rounding issues, but it is a good starting point when looking at this coming election. For starters, blacks came out in historic numbers, for obvious reasons. That’s not happening in 2016. Second, whites never warmed to Mittens. The white vote was down 2% from 2008 and that was down significantly from 2004. While Obama struggled with honkies, enough stayed home to allow the elevated black vote to carry him to victory.

Using current polling, we have a Clinton model like this:

Demographic Group % of Vote Clinton Share Vote Share
The Blue-Eyed Devil 74.70% 32.00% 23.90%
The Sacred People 12.00% 99.00% 11.88%
The New Sacred People 9.40% 75.00% 7.05%
Minorities That Get Into Stanford 3.00% 100.00% 3.00%
Totals 99.10% 45.83%

What I have done here is assume a slight uptick in the white vote, based on history and what we are seeing in the primaries. I am assuming the black vote returns to normal and I am giving the Hispanics a bit of boost, even though the data does not suggest it. Keep in mind that the white vote was 77% in 2004. I could be understating it here, but I am trying to be conservative and not sound like a Trump cheerleader. Even so, Hillary Clinton is looking at a ceiling of 46%, which matches up pretty well with the polling so far.

To make matters worse, recent polling has shown Trump doing much better with blacks than the typical Republican. He is in the 10% range which is unheard of and suggests the black vote will be very depressed. Similarly, Trump is polling better than Romney with Hispanics. Put another way, the model in that graphic is the rosy scenario for Clinton at the moment. Unless things change, she could be facing a Hubert Humphey sized defeat.

That does not mean Trump is a lock. He has a number of hurdles to overcome before people see him as a safe and plausible choice for President. There is also the Traitor Party Bill Kristol is trying to run as a straw to siphon votes from Trump. Even that nitwit Gary Johnson could become a home for the #nevertrump loons. These people are lackeys of the Custodial State and will do everything to help Clinton, someone they see as one of their own.

Even with all that, the math is terrible for Clinton. Counting on a straw in a presidential race is the very definition of desperation. John Anderson was not able to stop Reagan and Wallace could not stop Nixon. A candidate has to offer something more than disdain and a lecture. The Democrats are now the anti-white party and the anti-male party. In a country that is 70% white and 50% male, which is going to be a losing hand in the long run. Having a shriveled hag as your candidate makes the task impossible.

The Collapse Of The Old Order

In modern America, the mass media is controlled by adherents of the technocratic, neo-puritan religion we call modern liberalism. The simplest way to think of modern liberalism is as an identity cult where a relatively small group of whites look out at the rest of the country with contempt. As a result, public debate and public opinion exist within the context of liberalism. The terms, assumption, premises and boundaries of public discussion are determined by liberals in the media.

The point of bringing this up is to underline how easy it is to come away with a very warped view of what is happening in the world. In the recent Austrian election, for example, the Freedom Party was described as crypto-Nazi, despite being the opposite of National Socialists. If you read their party platform, they are more like the guys at Reason Magazine than anyone from Der Stürmer. From the perspective of the people writing the news stories, however, these rather bland libertarians of the Freedom Party feel like extremists.

The result of ceding control of public discourse to the cult of modern liberalism is that there is not a lot of discussion about what is happening to the Left. The coverage of the Austrian election is a great example. The press carried on like civilization just escaped an attack from Godzilla but breezed past the fact that Alexander Van der Bellen is a complete loon. The Austrian Green Party is nuts even by the standards of Austrian politics, which is no small thing.

Granted, the election was symbolic in many ways and that tends to result in weirdos doing well. Small town mayors are often eccentric because they have so little power. Voters are free to indulge in the entertainment side of politics when there is little at risk. Still, a complete crackpot won a nationwide election in a modern Western country. The reason for it is the political Left in the West has snapped free of its connections to normal society and is now rocketing out to the fringe.

Another useful example of this is the British Labour Party. It was not so long ago that the party was led by dreary technocrats like Tony Blair. Despite all the rhetoric, Labour was not a bunch of communists. They were always a left of center party that was just as happy to curry favor with the rich and powerful as the Tories. Today they are led by a madman who thinks Stalin was a trimmer. Jeremy Corbyn is a lunatic who has spent his life in fringe politics. Today he is one election away from being Prime Minister.

In America, the Democrats have been drifting into lunacy for a while under Obama as they desperately try to hold their coalition of weirdos together. Bernie Sanders is an old communist in a competitive race with Hillary Clinton. Sanders is not just an academic commie. He deeply admired the Soviets and thought Albania was a good model for the world. Just a decade ago a guy like Sanders running as anything other than a no-hope third candidate was laughable.

The dynamic in America has always been that the Progressives yank the window toward some fringe issue. The normals would grudgingly go along, kicking and screaming, so that the Overton Window gradually shifted in the direction of the loonies. All of a sudden, the normals appear to have simply let go of it. Set loose of that tether, the American Left is rocketing off into madness. There’s really no other way to describe the trannies in the bathroom business. It is madness.

Comparing American politics to European politics is not always sound because Europe has lived in a consequence free bubble since World War II. The economic and territorial safety of Europe has been America’s problem for 70 years, leaving the Euros to indulge is a more provincial brand of politics. Still, the events in Greece last year and what we are starting to see in more stable countries like Austria, suggests a global trend. At least a trend in the Western world.

The old order is breaking down and our politics are pulling apart. The old Center-Left coalition that has dominated Western politics is collapsing. On one side we have crackpots and lunatics trying to fill the void. On the other side we have traditionalists and nationalists, long marginalized, trying to organize in order to get into the fight. The Austrian Freedom Party had that “happy to be invited” vibe to it because none of them expected to be competitive.

Austria is a good lesson. We live in uncertain times and it is not always clear to voters who is wearing the black hat and who is wearing the white hat. People tend to go for the safe choice, and the safe choice is more often than not the familiar choice. Hillary Clinton is the worst candidate since Mike Dukakis, but she is familiar, like that hairy wart on Aunt Zelda’s chin. It is gross and disgusting, but you are used to it. That is what keeps her in the race, despite her many defects.

In the larger context, citizens in the West have been familiarized with Lefty for generations. Even the crazy ones like Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn are stock figures on the political stage. The traditionalists and nationalists still feel alien and weird to many people and therefore face a bigger challenge. The result will be a period of derangement in politics where the fate of countries is placed in the hands of feckless nitwits like Justin Trudeau.

In short, things are probably going to get much worse before they get better.

Glenn Beck Is A Dangerous Nut-Job

There is a guy in my neighborhood who was always known as being the sort who went all in on things. If it was worth doing it was worth overdoing. Hobbies became obsessions to the point of distraction. When he discovered alcohol, it was the same pattern. Drinking quickly went from social to a lifestyle. Then came drugs and the party life was an all consuming thing for him. The gonzo party guy was the over the top drug and alcohol guy to the point where his life was at risk.

Just like with all of his obsessions, he suddenly stopped drinking and using drugs. He quit the lifestyle and quit drinking entirely. Unlike most people who struggle with quitting, sobriety became his obsession. He was not going to be just another former addict. He was going to be the ultimate former addict. In short order he went from gonzo party guy to gonzo sobriety guy, lecturing everyone about the ills of drugs and alcohol, preaching the good news of sobriety to everyone.

Like a lot of former drunks, he drifted into religion. Maybe its the obsessive compulsive behavior or something else, but former addicts often find Jesus. It could simply be that many therapy meetings are held in churches. This guy got into religion and soon became the most devout person possible. He talked about maybe becoming minister. Instead of preaching the good news of his sobriety, he was now preaching the Good News.

Since religion always bumps up against politics, his religion led him into various causes that brought him into contact with politics. The familiar pattern started all over again. He threw himself into the topic, reading and studying everything he could about history and ideology. Being a religious guy, he naturally gravitated to causes and politics that were anti-Progressive. The gonzo party guy was now the gonzo political guy. His life was now politics and everything that came along with it.

By now you can probably figure out that I am not talking about a guy in the neighborhood. I am describing Glenn Beck, the deranged radio and TV host. I describe him as deranged because he has always existed on the edge between over the top political commentary and Jim Jones People’s Temple madness. It was never said explicitly, but the reason he left Fox was that the people in charge were a bit worried that he was descending into madness. Despite his ratings, they were glad to see him go.

Beck, of course, has done a lot to prove that Ailes was right. Beck has gone off and created a little media empire of his own out in Texas. From time to time, he has claimed to have talked with God and claimed to have been struck down with a debilitating disease. Half a dozen years ago the Lord was taking his sight. A few years later he was claiming some sort of vocal cord issue. These maladies are highly dramatized and then disappear.

Those familiar with radio preachers recognize this act. Back in the old days, radio and TV preachers would claim God was going to take them if the audience did not raise money for the new school or the new Mercedes or whatever the preacher wanted. In Beck’s case, it is possibly just attention seeking, but there is a strong case to be made that he is as nutty as a fruitcake. He never attaches a money making effort to his mystery diseases so it appears he really thinks he is Job.

In this election, Beck has eliminated any doubt about his mental fitness. He was telling audiences that Ted Cruz, of all people, was the Lord’s messenger sent to save humanity. Even more absurdly, he claims Donald Trump is the Anti-Christ. Presumably, the Ted Cruz – Donald Trump campaign in the primary was some sort of post-modern version of the final battle between good and evil. The final battle would happen in a TV studio rather than a hilltop in Israel.

Beck has now been suspended from his radio show for teaming up with another howling lunatic to encourage the assassination of Trump. I am unfamiliar with Brad Thor, but my guess is he is a dickhead. I’ve yet to meet anyone named Brad who was not an asshole. I am told he is a popular pulp fiction writer, but I do not read thrillers so I cannot comment on his work. He stalked me on twitter for a few days for some reason, but I do not use twitter enough to care.

One of the problems that fringe movements always suffer is that they attract a lot of nuts. The reason is the nuts are free to join a cause that will have them. The mass movement that is just getting started needs people so it welcomes all comers. The result is a fat naked guy doing the boogie at your big convention. It is why all successful mass movements enter a period where they deal with their loons. This is either a purge or a marginalization. Take note alt-right.

In the mass media age, a similar problem infects the media outlets. There is the gaping maw demanding to be filled with content. There is a finite number of sensible writers, speakers, performs and so forth. The demand quickly outstrips the supply so that means weirdos and lunatics are invited into fill the space. Technology now makes it easy for every nut-job in America to reach a broad audience. An obsessive nut-job can mange to get quite good at it.

Glenn Beck should not have easy access to a large audience. He should be broadcasting over short wave or handing out handwritten flyers on street corners, but satellite radio needs content. Media investors want a vehicle to exploit the audience a Beck attracts. Cable shows need a reason for people to watch so inviting an unhinged loon is a quick way to create content that creates interest. Unlike the political movement, there has been no way to purge the dangerous loonies from mass media.

I mentioned the other day that intolerance is wildly underrated. Much of what ails the West is due to the people in charge failing in their basic duties. Instead of enforcing the codes and customs that keep society on an even keel, they have found excuses to tolerate all sorts of bad behavior. It is how we ended up with hip-hop music and talking hemorrhoids like Al Sharpton celebrated in popular culture. That may seem harmless, but it is also how you end up with nutters like Beck and Thor encouraging people to shoot Donald Trump.

This will not end well.

Bodymore, Murderville

I saw on-line that Chicago rang in the start of the summer murder season with their 60th homicide of the year. In the ghetto, Memorial Day is the traditional start of crime season. The weather is nice so everyone is outside, making them easier to shoot. Chicago gets a lot of attention because it is a big city so the crime numbers are gaudy. That and the mayor is a former Obama and Clinton rumpswab. Here is a handy website that logs all the crime in the Windy City if you have an interest in the details.

The thing is, Chicago is a city of 2.7 million people. For a city that size, sixty murders is a great start to the season. Last year they finished with 507 murders. Doing a little math, they are on pace for an all-time low, if current trends hold, which is unlikely. Even so, Chicago is not in the top-10 list of most violent cities. The last look had them in the 30’s and that was after their record setting 2015. The apparent drop in homicide so far will drop them down the per capital homicide rankings.

[edit] I misread the Chicago murder stats. That is 60 for the month of may, not year to date. I will not have the editor killed for this horrible error.

That is what makes Baltimore an interesting place. The city is not excessively big. The census puts the population at 600,000, but the flight from the city has surely lowered that number. Even so, they managed 344 murders last year. That is a homicide rate three times that of Chicago. This year the body count is at 108 so they are a little off the 2015 pace, but not by much. The late spring in the Mid-Atlantic has probably tamped down the numbers a bit. Gunning down Trayvon over his sneakers is not so much fun in the wind and rain.

When you look at the details, the pattern is obvious. Murder in towns like Baltimore is nothing like you see on television and it sure as hell is not like the libertarian scolds imagine. It is not well-organized street gangs in territorial wars over the drug trade. Instead, it is low-IQ knuckleheads shooting each other over petty slights. The drug trade is real, but it is ad hoc and disorganized at the streets level. The beefs that lead to murder are just as likely to be over sneakers as drug deals.

It is what drug legalizers never understand. The drug game in America’s urban reservations is not what drives crime and social dysfunction. Libertarians imagine that legalizing drugs will lead to young black males throwing down their guns and heading off to community college. Legalize drugs and they will find something else to fill the void in their lives. Murder and mayhem in the ghetto are about the most basic of human attributes – status.

Talk to a cop that works the ghetto and he will be the most cynical guy you will meet. The reason is he spends his days working cases that have no rational explanation. Ray-Ray pops Darius one night not because of a business beef. No, Ray-Ray did not like the way Darius looked at him at a cookout so he walked up on him and started blasting. Sometimes, there is simply no reason at all. Ray-Ray just decided to kill Darius “cause he got to go.”

Of course, no one in the neighborhood talks to the cops. Again, the white romantics get it all wrong. The “community” is not hostile to the cops because of race. They are hostile because they are hostile to everyone. The ghetto is not a community. It is just a bunch of people who live in close quarters. One neighbor will steal from another and then shamelessly be seen on the street with the neighbor’s property. It is the one place where Hobbes was right.

All of the sentimental explanations for the ghetto are to avoid the reality of the situation. More important, they allow good whites to avoid facing up to doing what has proven to work. You did not see this level of dysfunction and violence in the black neighborhoods in the 50’s and 60’s. Every metric for blacks has gone the wrong way since desegregation. Literacy, crime, drugs, illegitimacy, etc. are all worse for blacks today than they were in the bad old days of segregation.

That is not to say integration magically turned some blacks into savages. It is that intolerance of bad behavior was an essential element of segregation. Whites had a “zero tolerance policy” for certain types of behavior from blacks. Black leaders, not wanting trouble, would police their ranks more ruthlessly than those imaginary bad whites the good whites are endlessly telling us are the cause of all bad things. Segregation made black leaders responsible for their people and therefore intolerant of misbehavior.

Over the last forty years, every black person with a clue has gotten as far away from the black neighborhoods as possible. The result is the ghetto is now a concentrated population of the worst black America has to offer. There is no one inside to police the ranks, so we end up with a blue wall around the reservation that maintains the border. When a body turns up, there is some effort to find the killer, but most times the crime goes unsolved.

There is no going back to segregation even if there was the will to do so, but there are lessons to be learned. The one lesson from the bad old days is that intolerance is under appreciated. Celebrating the dysfunction and general lunacy of the underclass not only encourages it, but it also gives people, who should know better, a reason to ignore it. The music company executives, for example, who promoted hip-hop in the 80’s, should have been keelhauled. Instead, they were made extraordinarily rich from the promotion of murder and mayhem.

Intolerance is why stop and frisk worked so well in New York. It took the status out of thug life. If you went out with your pants around your ankles and your hat on sideways, the cops would humiliate you on the street. No one looks hard when they have their hands against the wall and a cop has pulled their pants down, looking for weapons and drugs. Remove the status from thug life and you get less of it. Ban the public display of “black culture” in West Baltimore and crime drops quickly.

My Advice to the Broads

If you go over to the neighborhood google machine and enter “women less happy” you get 284 million results. When you enter “men less happy” you get 246 million results, but it quickly becomes apparent that most of the results are the same as the first search. Scanning through the first dozen or so pages of both queries reveals that the result sets are almost exclusively about women being less happy than men and less happy today than at some point in the dark past.

There was a big study on this half a dozen years ago. This being the modern age, researchers are required to first eliminate the most obvious answers and instead focus on those causes that reinforce the tenets of the One True Faith. These days, the social justice warrior phenomenon where angry young women make a nuisance of themselves, is explained away as the fault of the pale penis people. The fat, blue-haired girl with the face full of fishing tackle may have been born that way, but it is still your fault.

The truth is feminism is and was toxic nonsense. A century ago, feminism could make some claims to rationality. After all, women in the West did have a strong position in society. Encoding that into the social and political institutions made some sense. By the 1950’s, the happiest period for women in modern history, feminism was at best a stupid fad and at worst, what we have experienced, a suicide cult promising to immiserate women at a scale the Muslims could never imagine.

That is a good thing to keep in mind. If a woman wants to maximize her happiness, looking back to the 50’s and 60’s is a good place to start. Women in that age got married early. By early, I mean young adulthood, either after high school or after college. Instead of waiting until their life was full of restraints and complexity, they found a husband, with whom they could develop those restraints and complexity.

It turns out that married women are twice as happy as single women. This is a biological fact of life. The females of our species are wired to seek out a high status male, with whom they build a life-long bond. From the point of view of nature, this guarantees the greatest chance of reproductive success. Since it is vastly easier for a young adult female to land a suitable mate than it is for a middle-aged female, getting married early makes the most sense. Sure, the man could be a dud, but there are no guarantees in life.

Similarly, women should try to have their babies by the time they reach thirty. Childbearing is tough on the woman’s body so getting it done in peak physical years makes the most sense. There is also the fact that chasing around after a ten year old is easier at 30 than it is at 40 or 50. Kids will wear out even the most fit person so having them when you are at your most fit means you get the most out of being a mom.

That is the other thing. I have met so many women who seem to think they should not enjoy being a mom. They race off to work as soon as they can drop the kids off to daycare and they carry on like their kids are a burden. A woman’s reason for being on earth is to be a mother. That is pretty much their only reason to be alive. A smart and happy woman will enjoy it as much as possible as life will not be any better than those years as a mother.

Now, the reality of life is that many marriages end in divorce. This is why getting married early makes sense. Finding a replacement man at 35 is easier than at 45 or 55. It is going to be even easier if you are not fat. It is easy to develop bad habits when married, but a woman is going to be happier if she works to keep her figure and look as close to her wedding picture as possible. Letting yourself go is a good way to end up a divorced, bitter middle-aged hen.

This is not just about planning for being a swinging divorcee. Your job as a woman is to make your man happy. Part of that is keeping yourself sexually attractive. This is ground floor biology. By trying to look as close to your wedding photo as possible, you will remind your husband every day why he married you. The main reason men cheat on their wives is sex so a good way to keep your man around is remove that problem from the mix.

Finally, one thing every man in middle-aged and older knows is that women often go bonkers in their middle years. The kids gain independence and suddenly mom has no purpose. The mid-life crisis is far more common for woman than men and it is due to simple biology. The female is here to bear and raise children. Once that is done, finding a suitable reason to get up every morning is not always obvious. Plan for this reality.

Being Wrong

When I read the founding texts of Western Liberalism, I’m often struck by how right they were about some things. Read Rousseau and you see that the men of the Enlightenment were figuring out evolution long before Darwin came along. They did not call it evolution and they were not approaching it from a biological perspective, but they understood there was a period before human settlement. They knew that period of human organization required different men than the world at that time produced.

That said, they got some big stuff wrong too. The “state of nature” was nothing like Hobbes imagined. It was not men in a constant state of warfare against one another. Of course, the blank slate stuff upon which Rousseau built his moral philosophy is, we now know, complete nonsense. We are what our DNA instructs, for the most part. There’s not only variation between people, there’s diversity between groups of people due to generations of inherited traits, within isolated groups of humans.

There are two things to learn from that. One is that tens of millions of people were murdered because Rousseau was completely wrong about the nature of man. That’s a big mistake. The other take away is that even when a theory seems to explain what we observe, it could still be wildly wrong. For instance, the ruins at Gobekli Tepe are forcing archaeologists and historians to rethink the civilization timeline.

On the day I visit, a bespectacled Belgian man sits at one end of a long table in front of a pile of bones. Joris Peters, an archaeozoologist from the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, specializes in the analysis of animal remains. Since 1998, he has examined more than 100,000 bone fragments from Gobekli Tepe. Peters has often found cut marks and splintered edges on them—signs that the animals from which they came were butchered and cooked. The bones, stored in dozens of plastic crates stacked in a storeroom at the house, are the best clue to how people who created Gobekli Tepe lived. Peters has identified tens of thousands of gazelle bones, which make up more than 60 percent of the total, plus those of other wild game such as boar, sheep and red deer. He’s also found bones of a dozen different bird species, including vultures, cranes, ducks and geese. “The first year, we went through 15,000 pieces of animal bone, all of them wild. It was pretty clear we were dealing with a hunter-gatherer site,” Peters says. “It’s been the same every year since.” The abundant remnants of wild game indicate that the people who lived here had not yet domesticated animals or farmed.

But, Peters and Schmidt say, Gobekli Tepe’s builders were on the verge of a major change in how they lived, thanks to an environment that held the raw materials for farming. “They had wild sheep, wild grains that could be domesticated—and the people with the potential to do it,” Schmidt says. In fact, research at other sites in the region has shown that within 1,000 years of Gobekli Tepe’s construction, settlers had corralled sheep, cattle and pigs. And, at a prehistoric village just 20 miles away, geneticists found evidence of the world’s oldest domesticated strains of wheat; radiocarbon dating indicates agriculture developed there around 10,500 years ago, or just five centuries after Gobekli Tepe’s construction.

To Schmidt and others, these new findings suggest a novel theory of civilization. Scholars have long believed that only after people learned to farm and live in settled communities did they have the time, organization and resources to construct temples and support complicated social structures. But Schmidt argues it was the other way around: the extensive, coordinated effort to build the monoliths literally laid the groundwork for the development of complex societies.

The model of human development has been based on the idea that humans began to learn how to farm and domesticate animals while living as hunter gatherers. Groups of humans figured out that they could improve their prospects by cultivating wild crops, thus providing a hedge against the bad times. This led to the slow development of cooperative societies and eventually settled agriculture-based communities. Large scale social organization beyond blood relations happened after agriculture, not before.

The existence of large structures requiring lots of people working together over a long period of time, perhaps across generations, before the advent of agriculture is a big deal. It means cooperation is the result of something other than economic necessity. In other words, people started cooperating for some reason other than it made for better living conditions. The theory presented in the linked story suggest the motivation was spiritual. The people who built Gobekli Tepe did it to please the gods in some way.

This may not sound like a big deal, but consider that the last 300 or so years of Western political debate has been between Team homo economicus and Team homo reciprocans. If both are just manifestations of a basic human drive for spiritual salvation, then basing economic and political systems on either is only going to end in tears, which would be a good way to describe the 100 million or so dead trying to prove Rousseau was right. It means our self-interest and cooperation are bound by something else.

I’ve written a lot about how our ideological impulses are just channels through which our natural religious impulse flows. Those of us less inclined to believe, tend toward political skepticism. Those more inclined to believe, tend towards mass movements like socialism, communism, libertarianism, etc. Much of what vexes the modern West is the deluded belief that we have evolved past our superstitions and spiritual impulses. Maybe that’s all wrong and maybe it is important.

Reality 7, Fantasy 0

One reason to be optimistic about the current madness is that reality does not go away when you stop believing in it. Eventually, all of this crackpottery we see from our rulers will crash into the jagged rocks of reality. Now, a lot of us may get thrown over the rails or go down with the ship, but eventually this spasm of insanity in the West will end. This story from the land down under, as reported by the Mail Online is a nice little pick me up.

Australia’s national women’s soccer team have suffered a devastating defeat in the lead up to the Rio Olympics – going down 7-0 to the Newcastle Jets under-15 boys side.

What is particularly concerning for the Matildas is that despite resting some regulars, they were still able to field experienced international stars including former AFC player of the year Katrina Gorry.

Despite the embarrassing defeat on Wednesday night at Valentine Sports Park in Newcastle, the Australian team will travel to Brazil as one of the gold medal favourites.

While the Matildas played with a rotating squad, there is no denying losing to a team of school boys is far from ideal preparation for the world’s fifth ranked team in their quest for Olympic gold at Rio.

Assistant Matildas coach Gary van Egmond was as surprised as anyone about the result admitting his side were outplayed.

‘To be honest we didn’t expect that,’ Egmond told the Huffington Post Australia.

I suppose the coach could be forgiven for this. Maybe he has been so immersed in girls soccer he can no longer compare the girls to the boys. It’s also possible he is just telling a white lie in order to avoid embarrassing his players. They can pretend they did not take the match seriously and the boys team was better than they expected. It’s a lame excuse, but it avoids facing reality.

‘The Jets boys were very good, all credit to them, they moved the ball around very well and were excellent all night.’

Egmond said that the Matildas are often forced to play against boys teams as trying to find quality female opposition can be difficult.

It may not be the first time that the Australian team have suffered a heavy defeat against school boys with claims that they were ‘smashed’ by an under 16 Sydney FC team last year circulating.

The social media reaction to the defeat has been condemning with many claiming that the result is not good enough for a team that is expected to challenge for a medal at the Olympics.

Maybe that’s true, but it would be amazing to me if that many humans were walking the earth unaware of the stark differences between male and female athletes. A woman in her prime years has the cardiovascular capacity of a man in his 50’s. It’s why girls cannot pass the same physical tests as males in the military. Many male recruits also fail early on, but a month or two of training and even the least fit males are well beyond the female recruits. Imagine the differences when we’re talking years of training.

Of course, the difference between boys and girls are no limited to physiology. All the stuff that makes up personality and intelligence is rooted in the same stuff as physiology. We are what our DNA says we are and human DNA makes boys difference from girls cognitively, physically and emotionally, etc. These differences cannot be wished away or hectored away. Most of what we call liberalism is at odds with biological reality and that can only end one way.

Summer of Scandal

I have long thought that Team Obama was going to work to destroy the campaign of Hillary Clinton, not by having her indicted or backing an alternative in the primary. That would be too obvious and it would risk splitting the cult of personality Obama created within the Democratic Party. Part of the plan to make Obama a billionaire after he leaves office is to cash in all the favors he has in the bank, so that means not spending them now in a political fight.

Instead, the better play is to let her twist in the wind on the scandals and let surrogates on the Left take turns whacking Clinton around in public. Unlike Bill, Hillary lacks the nimble political instincts to dodge and weave in public. Bill could easily swat away whatever was hurled at him and he always looked like he was not worried in the slightest. That was the creepy thing about him in the Lewinsky scandal. He seemed to enjoy the scandal more than he enjoyed the cause of the scandal.

In contrast, Hillary always looks like she is lying. The woman could be ordering lunch and she gives off the vibe that she is plotting to kill the waiter. The reason for it is she is always lying and she is not exceptionally good at lying. Bill is a sociopath. For him, lying is his nature. He enjoys the game. Hillary is just a crook and she is always worried about being caught, which is why she looks so calculating in public. This is a woman who knows she is a crook.

Anyway, that is what this latest revelation tells me. Team Obama is just letting this stuff drip out a little here and little there so the pressure is always on Team Hillary to deal with scandal. The more times she and her people are asked about it, the more chance there are to lie and get caught lying. For a generation, the NYTimes has been carrying water for the Clintons, but even they have to admit the truth when the State Department concludes Clinton has repeatedly lied about her e-mail.

Team Obama could have shut this down or had State exonerate Clinton a long time ago, but they did not. That is how you bury someone without making it obvious. You let others do it in a plodding, bureaucratic fashion so it just looks like procedure. That is what this Terry McAuliffe scandal looks like right now. The FBI was probably sitting on this for years, but then they decided to fold it into the Clinton investigation, because it opens up another front in the trap they are slowly building for Hillary.

It also points to the next phase of this slow torture of Clinton. The McAuliffe issue is a money scandal. He took donations from the Chinese, which is a favorite gag of Team Clinton going back 25 years. He also appears to have gotten his personal funds confused with campaign funds. Coincidentally, those campaign funds have links back to the Clinton Foundation. This lets the FBI open a case against the Foundation and that means examining the finances of what everyone knows is a money laundering operation.

Politicians understand scandal better than the press and the public. The one thing they know is that sex and money are the two scandals that get you tossed out of office. The reason is people can easily relate to those types of failings. Using campaign funds to buy gifts for your girlfriend is the sort of thing that makes great copy and it requires no explanation. The public gets it because we all understand the temptations involved. Everyone likes money and getting laid.

That is why I suspect this McAullife stuff has surfaced. The FBI is probably not going to get the DOJ to indict Clinton before the election, at least not on the e-mail stuff. That would actually play in Clinton’s favor as she could then play the victim card. She would come out and claim it is a right-wing conspiracy to keep a woman out of the White House. The liberal media would turn the FBI head into Ken Starr because that is the easy sell. It fits the narrative of the good liberal fighting the evil man.

That sort of narrative reporting does not work when the dramatis personae are Chinese bagmen, the oleaginous Terry McAuliffe and the parade of unsavory characters around the Clinton Foundation.  Every reporter in Washington will now be on the prowl for a piece of the puzzle connecting all the players in a web of financial shenanigans. Proper e-mail procedures are boring. Financial scandals are juicy and they are really juicy when they involve exotic weirdos carrying satchels full of cash.

Ironically, it is now following the same path as Watergate. The old line about that scandal was that it was not the crime it was the cover-up. That was half true. The real story was the deep, long standing hatred of Nixon by the liberal ruling elite. They hated him for his red hunting and they hated him for his decidedly plebeian style. Watergate and the related scandals were standard issue politics in those days, but they became weapons for the beautiful people to use against the usurper.

That is the way this is looking to me. The Left never really liked Hillary. She was always seen as the Yoko Ono of the Clinton Team. Her disastrous handling of health care made her a loser and there is nothing worse in liberal circles than losing. The way that Team Clinton opposed Obama in 2008 forever placed Hillary outside the in-crowd. Now, the beautiful people are using all of these small crimes to shred her candidacy. The summer of scandal is upon us.

The Wimpening

When I was a young man, my grandfather would tease us boys by telling us “In my day it was wooden ships and iron men. You boys will be lucky if you are wooden men in iron ships.” I’m not so old that my grandfather lived in the age of sail, so it was just a way for an old man to have some fun teasing his grandkids.

That said, he had a point. A boy coming of age a century ago was facing a much tougher world and would have to be tougher to live in it.  There’s little doubt in my mind that men of my generation are softer than the men of father’s or grandfather’s generation. It’s not just the material excess we have today. When I was a little kid, I had it much easier than the prior generations. My grandfather, for example, quit school at 13 and went to work in a coal mine.

Steve Pinker has made a strong case that men have grown decreasingly violent over each generation. His data corresponds with the historical record, which is what makes it such a strong argument. We know, for example, that banditry was a serious issue in the Middle Ages. Traveling from one town to the next was dangerous. Today, we travel from town to town without thinking about bandits, other than cops running speed traps. The only danger there is to your wallet.

One of the reasons he points to for the decline in violence is the feminization of men, which he defines as a growing awareness of and respect for the interests of women by men. I’ve always paused on that one simply because it runs counter to what we know of history. Women have often been the cause of violence and I don’t just mean men fighting one another for women. I mean women instigating wholesale and particular violence. Roman history is littered with women who killed a lot of men.

That said, you can argue that women are less tolerant of wholesale violence, on average, than men so as women increased their influence over western society, violence dropped. At the same time, as the value of violence dropped, men less inclined to violent solutions rose in status, while the tough guys fell in status. The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance plays on this theme. In a civilized world, the tough guys are marginalized and the smart guys rise to the top of the social hierarchy.

To circle back to where I started with this post, the pop heroes of my grandfather’s generations were gangsters and cowboys. In my generation, we still had some of that, but the male leads were more contemplative, using their wits and charm more than their brawn. Watch a current movie and the male lead is a small, wimpy guy, who cowers to women. The alternatives are cartoon tough guys that resemble video game characters, more than real males.

I’ve always wanted to think this is just Hollywood being overrun by social justice warriors and liberal fanatics. Fifty years ago, Hollywood cared about making money so they made movies to please the audience. Today they care more about making commentary so they make films that lecture the audience. That and the drop in skill means they are less adept at using subtlety to make their propaganda.

Still, events do make me wonder if there’s been a collapse of manliness and Western men have gone full Eloi.

A respected violence researcher has declared that the Cologne sex attacks show German men have forgotten how to fight, and it’s a good thing.
Jörg Baberowski gave a speech recently at the Philosophy Festival  in Cologne on Thursday night saying that the New Years Eve sex attacks in Cologne prove that German males have forgotten how to stand up for themselves. He said the fact that the German men had not come to the aid of the women being sexually assaulted by large gangs of migrants showed a reluctance to be violent and commented: “We see that men in Germany no longer know how to deal with violence,” Stern reports.

However, immediately following the remark Baberowski, who is a historian at the Humboldt University in Berlin, said “thank god” that German men no longer know how to stand up for themselves or face violent conflict. He claimed that is was good that German men relied solely on the state to take care of them and protect them. He claimed that the New Years’ attacks were a failure of the state to protect its citizens and that if the government can’t guarantee that safety then the confidence the citizens have it it will be shaken.

Thinking back to my youth, I recall hearing lectures about the importance of letting the authorities handle whatever trouble was brewing. Lecturing boys about using their wits versus their fists was common enough to stick in my memory. There was also the idea of “being the bigger man” and not responding to physical challenges. I was reminded of that watching this from Milo Yiannopoulos’s event at DePaul University.

One of the things that men my age will talk about with one another is how young white males never get into fights. I’ve had interns tell me they have never been in a physical confrontation with another male. I’ve never considered myself a fighter, yet I was in a scrape every week growing up. That was just what boys did. Even into my teen years, things we often settled physically, even if it was quickly broken up.

Getting back to the Milo event, I keep wondering what would happen if someone popped one of these BLM cunts in the mouth. If Milo had knocked her cold, I’m thinking that would be the last of these confrontations. The risk assessment by these people would change overnight. Taking on the honky would suddenly come with real danger. Whatever benefits there are, assuming there are any, of refusing to fight, there’s no doubt it encourages troublemakers like that woman to get increasingly aggressive.

Watching the reaction from his fans on-line, I feel like I’m from another planet. Frankly, I cringed watching that video. Yet, the reaction on twitter suggests most people think he was the winner in that exchange. If that’s “winning” then I don’t want to see losing. To my old eyes, that looked like a white guy being dominated by a scrawny black bitch and then slinking away. I get that he is a gay guy and maybe the rules are different, but still, it was hard to watch, much less cheer.

Maybe the great wimpening has reached the point of no return. Traditional forms of masculinity are dead in the West and will not be revived until sometime after the Caliphate is established. Those dusky fellows rampaging through the streets of European cities are unlikely to sit there and take a lecture from a mouthy twat from Black Lives Matter. If Western men can’t stand up to mouthy college twats, they stand no chance against the Mohammedan.

The Muslims are not wrong about everything.

The End of Left and Right

Some of my posts, of late, have elicited shock and horror from people, who probably think I am a fellow traveler. The post on inequality is the most obvious example. As I mentioned at the start of that post, people outside the Progressive fever swamps have been trained for generations to run screaming from the room whenever the topic of inequality is raised. After all, that is what commies talk about and being conservative has always meant not being a commie.

The interesting bit from my perspective is the assumption that when it comes to inequality, there can only be two positions. One is the Randian view that the high achievers should get everything and the low achievers should die. Concerns about merit and social comity are for losers. The other view is that a dictatorship of the proletariat should rise up and murder the rich and turn the country into a version of Harrison Bergeron. In other words, equality is a stalking horse for communism.

In my post, I offered no policy proposals. I just pointed out that concentrations of wealth are lethal to self-government and social stability. That is the lesson of history. The New Right or whatever we are calling it these days, should be willing to discuss this reality. Otherwise, you cede the field to retrograde loons, who simultaneously demand higher wages and the importation of cheap helot labor from cultures antithetical to Western values. In other words, the game has changed.

You see it in the recent election in Hitler Land. The loser is described as “far extreme right” while the winner is described as a lovable teddy bear. OK, I made up that last part, but that is not the point. The “right” in this case is simply the guy who wants to keep Austria an on-going concern as a separate country. His economic and social positions are irrelevant. What brought him and his party to prominence was opposition to immigration and globalism.

Similarly, his opponent is best known for wanting to liquidate the country’s borders and dissolving it into the amorphous blob that is Europe. Alexander Van der Bellen was the head of the Green Party for a long time and once said, “Anyone who loves Austria must be shit.” His positions on economics and other matters are a muddle, but no one really cares. He is not a Nazi and he is a globalist. That is all that matters and it is the reason he was able to squeak out a victory.

In America, the old Left-Right paradigm no longer makes any sense. The Buckley Conservatives have no meaningful proposals to roll back the welfare state. The Left has no plans to level the playing field by seizing the wealth of the rich and distributing it to the poor. Both sides wave their hands around for old times sake, but they are both open-borders globalists, funded by the buccaneer class of donors.

Calling Ted Cruz a right-winger, for example, misses the point. Sure, he would like to tinker with the tax code in a slightly different way than Hillary Clinton and he has slightly different views on how to bomb the muzzies, but on the defining issues of our age, they are pretty much in agreement. Both the Buckley Right and the Left embrace globalism, open borders and the ceding of popular sovereignty to un-elected international bodies controlled by global corporations.

The New Right that is emerging is not defined by tax policy, endless yapping about the constitution or its principled losing. It is a cultural movement, first and foremost. The technocratic managerialism that defines the Modern Left and Buckley Conservatives is not a part of the New Right. Instead, it is opposition to open borders and globalism based on citizenism. Being a citizen is not just location. It is language, customs and historical perspective.

The striking difference between my view on equality, for example, and some of my critics is that I place great value on social stability. I am willing to use the power of the state, if necessary, to prevent global buccaneers from destroying national culture. Libertarians and Buckley Conservatives faint when hearing those words because they place theoretical limits on government, and their symbolic loyalty to those limits, above all else.

There is the great new dividing line in politics. One side is concerned solely with stability and comity at the top. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times argue endlessly about how best to organize global governance, because that is what matters to them. They are not just indifferent to what happens in your neighborhood. They see such concern as a fault, a mental defect that should exclude you from the halls of power. As far as they are concerned, you are no more important than the Malaysian sweatshop worker. You are just an economic unit.

On the other side of the dividing line are the localists, the people who focus their attention on their neighborhood, their town, their city and their country. The Super Duper Global Trade Pact may be great for Mega Corp, but if it means all the jobs in your town get shipped to Malaysia, then it is not good for you. Cheap stuff at Walmart is not much good to a man without a job. Generous welfare benefits are not much good when everyone spends it on liquor and meth.

That is the new line in politics. Are you concerned about what you see out of your window or are you concerned about what you see through your telescope. Hillary Clinton thinks of the US government as the local interface of the emerging global state. It is one facet of the managerial class. You, as a “citizen” have no control of it, you interact with it like an ATM machine. That is exactly the way they see national governments. They are just nodes on the network. All of the company approved GOP options held the same views until Trump came calling.

Left and Right are dead. It is globalist versus localist and everyone is going to have to pick sides, even the libertarians for a change. The #nevertrump loons are picking sides, even if they do not fully understand it. They are the toadies and rumpswabs that are in the baggage train of every ruling elite. They are the folks who rush into the street to greet the invaders. They do not understand any of this, but they are men who believe in nothing but self-preservation so it really does not matter. Everyone else will pick sides, based on their perceived self-interest.