White Authority

Posted on December 19, 2023 by thezman

Was the founding generation of America full of white nationalists? This is a claim popular with some white nationalists. They argue that North America was settled by white people who set out to create a new society for white people and once they achieved independence from England, they created a white society. They will point to statements and actions that suggest that early Americans consciously and deliberately planned a society exclusively for white people.

Oddly, this is the exact same claim made by anti-whites in support of the demands for reparations and what they call “restorative justice.” The starting point for understanding the anti-white argument is their take on the social contract. They claim that because civilization was created by white men, it must have been created to serve the interest of white men, which must have come at the expense of non-whites. In other words, they agree with the white nationalists on this point.

Putting aside the claims by the anti-whites, which are all ex post facto arguments to support their current thirst for vengeance, are the white nationalist correct when they claim the Framers as their own? There is no disputing the fact that the European people of the 17th and 18th century had little interest in other races. They certainly did not think the races should mingle. They thought it perfectly normal to own human beings, so their views on equality were, at best, narrow and rhetorical.

The best argument in favor of the white nationalist claim about the intention of the Framers is the preamble to the constitution. “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

The word “posterity” is critical. Then as now, this word means future generations of the current people and the people who chose that word were white. They chose to capitalize it, which in that age was a form of emphasis. They were making clear to the people of the states that the point of the new government was to protect and promote the people and their descendants. The Naturalization Act of 1790, one of the first acts passed by the new government, drives home this point.

The problem here is that Congress repealed this five years later in favor of the Naturalization Act of 1795. They kept much of the original bill, but then three years later they modified it again with the Naturalization Act of 1798. More changes followed as Congress wrestled with how best to solve the main problem, which was the lack of human capital to exploit the country’s natural resources. 18th century America was rich in natural resources, but short of people.

In other words, the point of these acts was not to protect white people or keep out non-whites, but to manage the problem of how to bring in new settlers – and that is what was needed – but to do so without undermining the current population. Race and ethnicity were not the primary reason for these acts. In fact, the people of this age could not image what we think of as a multi-racial society. Such a thing not only did not exist, but at the time it could not exist. It was simply not a consideration.

That brings us to the main problem with this line of reasoning. The people of this time had different conceptions of race. This is not to say race is a social construct, but that the meaning of words change over time. For 18th century man, words like “white”, and “race” were used differently from today. For the Framers, white often meant English, while race meant ethnicity. Our modern idea of “white”, meaning broadly European, would have seemed strange to Thomas Jefferson.

Further, the concept of white nationalism would have puzzled the people of this age because it is a solution to a problem they could not imagine. If you went back in time and told them that millions of non-whites would be flowing into the country every year, they would have thought you were insane. The movement of millions of people, regardless of race, was inconceivable. There were only four million people in America when the Constitution was being debated.

Now, the white nationalist would no doubt argue that if the Framers could understand the problems that modern Americans face, they would certainly embrace the concept of white nationalism as a solution. There is no way to prove or disprove it, so it is merely a gratuitous assertion. It is fair to assume that the Framers assumed and expected, therefore would have wanted, the country to look like them in terms of race and religion, long after they were gone. They wanted this for their posterity.

There is a deeper issue at work here. Like the anti-whites who claim original sin as justification for their present behavior, the white nationalists pointing to the Framers are looking for a moral authority. They think that the Framers are unassailable, in moral terms, so if the Framers were white nationalists, then it follows that white nationalism is a moral good. What are you going to do? Take down the statues of the Framers and strike their names from the history books?

That aside, the mistake is to assume a person can be a moral authority. The Framers were not gods or God’s representatives. They were just men sorting through the challenges of their age with the knowledge of their age. They were not moral authorities then and they cannot be moral authorities now. The challenges of this age will need to be sorted by the men of this age. Their moral authority is simply their collective will to create a safe and prosperous society for their posterity.

Maybe white nationalism, however it is defined, is the right answer. Pinning white nationalist down on what the term means is not always easy, but maybe in there is the right answer for the plight of white people in North America. That will be determined as all such things are determined. Can it actually meet the challenge and are the trade-offs acceptable to the people adopting it? This is not a question for the dead, but for the white people living in the here and now.

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Ukraine Intrigue

Posted on December 13, 2023 by thezman

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Determining what the regime is plotting is often a guessing game, as the regime has turned itself into the father of lies. The people in positions of authority lie even when the truth would serve their interests. As a result, we are left to look at what is going on around the regime, how various players are reacting, in order to guess at what may be happening inside the black box that is Washington. We just got a dose of that this week when Zelensky arrived rattling the tin cup.

Everything about the trip was weird, compared to what has been the norm regarding Ukraine over the last two years. His arrival was not met with a big ceremony and the media was not flooded with Ukrainian agit-prop. The closest we got on that score was a press release to C-level crazies in fringe media. Six months ago, these stories were regular features in regime media. Instead there were grim stories about Ukraine at a cross roads militarily and politically.

Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Zelensky was not invited to Washington, even though his trip was certainly arranged by the Kagan cult. They first had him show up in Argentina at the swearing in of their new ruler. Since he was in the neighborhood, he decided to swing by Washington just as the Biden administration is begging Congress for more money for Ukraine. This week is the last week to get a package passed as Congress goes on an extended break.

That is the other bit of weirdness. House Republicans suddenly grew a spine for the first time in generations and have refused to give Biden more money for Ukraine without getting significant concessions on immigration. In fact, they are holding up Israel money in the process, which is no doubt angering the usual suspects. The administration refuses to separate out Israel money from Ukraine money and the House refuses to consider a bill that combines the two.

The final bit of weirdness to the drama is they had Zelensky make the rounds in order to guilt Congress into relenting. The thing is, he only met with the Senate and reportedly the meeting did not go well. He did not meet with House members, presumably because they would be even more hostile. He closed his trip with what was expected to be a tongue bathing from Fox News zombie Brett Baier, but the producers gave Bair some real questions to ask, which ruined the effect.

Taken in total, it was a disaster for Zelensky. It is not just being cut off by Congress but the way it was done. He now has to go back to Kiev empty handed and with the impression that Washington no longer loves him. His main card in Ukrainian politics right now is he keeps the money flowing. If he is not keeping the money flowing and he is not on good terms with Washington, then what is his point? Why keep him around if all he does is strut around in gym clothes?

That may have been the point of this trip. Back in Kiev there is a power struggle between the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, head of the secret police Kyrylo Budanov and Zelensky. Some generals are siding with Zelensky, and no one really knows where Budanov stands, but the bulk of the officer corps backs Zaluzhnyi. What really matters, of course, is which faction is backed by Washington and that is why this trip matters.

It is possible that the Kagan cult has determined that Zelensky is a liability, and they need to find a replacement. If it appears that Zelensky has fallen out of favor and that is slowing the flow of cash to Kiev, then there is a good chance that the anti-Zelensky factions will come together and topple the government. In this context, a military junta run by Zaluzhnyi makes some sense. He is on good terms with the Western war machine, and he has credibility with regards to conducting the war.

On the other hand, this may be a bit of 2-D chess. By now everyone in the White House has to know that Ukraine is lost. The question now is how to manage the endgame, especially in light of an election in eleven months. The last thing the regime wants is scenes of Russian tanks entering Ukrainian cities this summer. If the army overthrows Zelensky, the administration can claim the failure is due to Republicans cutting off funding which resulted in a coup and then collapse.

This sounds a bit farfetched, but keep in mind that Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government in 2014. Everyone in Kiev knows this. That is why stories like this one in a CIA front operation are important. The Kiev Post is not in Kiev. It is one of the many nodes of disinformation operated by the regime. Stories about a third coup in Kiev coming from such a source are intended to send a message. Zelensky’s palace could soon be the closing scenes of the movie Scarface.

One always has to consider ineptitude in these matters. It could simply be that the Biden people have poorly managed all of this and the botched trip to Washington was just one more self-own. Mike Johnson is as green as grass, so he is trying to earn some street cred by holding the line on Ukraine money. The Biden people handed him this gift of trying to tie Ukraine money to Israel money, so he is using this impasse to make pleasant noises about immigration.

Taken as a whole, the best we can say for certain is some elements of the regime are now moving into the endgame phase of project Ukraine. Whether or not they have internalized how this will end is hard to know, but clearly some elements are thinking about how to manage the inevitable defeat of Ukraine. Given the implacability of the Kagan cult, this suggests Zelensky brought the gift of palace intrigue to Washington, as the tribes duke it out over how to manage Ukraine.

In the end, none of it really matters. Moscow has ruled out negotiations with Kiev and is in no mood to do Washington any favors. For the Russians, Ukraine is one part of a larger war against the Global American Empire. That means they will continue to manage the Ukraine war in light of that larger conflict. The fate of Ukraine is no longer in the hands of Washington. Once important people in Kiev understand this, the war ends along with the current Kiev regime.

Belief And Democracy

Posted on December 12, 2023 by thezman

The willingness to accept something as true, without evidence to support it, is the essence of belief. Someone tells you something and you can either accept what is said as true or reject it, without having much to go on because people rarely layout factual cases for the things they say. Your buddy at the office tells you he heard layoffs are coming, but his only proof is where he heard it. You have to decide whether to accept what he says or reject it, based on other factors.

Belief is the thing at the center of religion, culture, and ideology. You grow up learning about Wotan and his wandering. You accept it as true, even though there is never any evidence to support the existence of Wotan. You became a communist because you learned about historical materialism, and it explained everything. You continue to celebrate Christmas, despite being a pagan communist, because you were told it is what your people do regardless of their religion.

Biologically, belief is assumed to be one of modern man’s oldest traits. Belief, which is often confused with religion, probably co-evolved with language. Taken together it allows for humans to pass along complex and abstract ideas from one place to another and one generation to another. You can read the Epic of Gilgamesh today, in your native language, and learn something about the people who produced it. The abstract concepts traveled over time and place to you.

To get a better sense of the power of belief, think about a race of humans that is devoid of belief so all claims must be backed by proof. Children grow up demanding proof of everything said by their parents. School children demand proof of every assertion made by their teachers. The boss of the corporation is required to prove that diversity is the company’s greatest strength. Humans would never have made it out of the trees without a willingness to believe what they are told.

Like most human traits, belief seems to operate on a spectrum. Everyone knows a gullible person who trusts everyone. Then you have the devout person who accepts everything about her particular religion. On the other hand, we have the skeptic who is willing to question claims that seem a bit over the top. This person is different from the cynic, who assumes everything is a lie. The bulk of people lie between the serious skeptic and the generally trusting.

Belief is probably why democracy ends in disaster. The point of democracy is to have policies that reflect the general will of the people. In theory this means figuring out what most people will accept. You cannot make everyone happy, even in a small group ordering in lunch, but you can make most people happy and those outliers happy enough so they do not revolt. In theory, democracy is ordering pizza for lunch because no one hates it and most people like it.

In reality, democracy quickly turns into a game of convincing the majority to go along with whatever benefits the few. If you and your conspirators can get fifty percent plus one to agree to your scheme, it will be very good for you. Of course, others have their schemes so that democracy quickly moves from understanding the will of the people to persuading the majority. In reality, democracy is ordering Chinese after having convinced the majority that it is the right choice.

That phrase “right choice” is critical. It is never about facts and reason, but about the morally correct choice. Democracy rests on the assertion that the morally correct choice is that which satisfies the needs and demands of most people. Therefore, the way to persuade someone is to convince them that the majority already believes whatever it is you are pitching. In practice, democracy is telling each person that everyone really wants Chinese, except those troublemakers in the pizza party.

This is where belief comes into the room. In such conditions, the true believer will always have an advantage over the skeptic and especially the cynic because the fanatic shares the language and thought processes of the typical believer. Since most people are generally willing to believe what is told to them, as long as the source has some trust capital, the fanatic shares with the typical person that willingness to believe, even if it is in the extreme. The fanatic speaks the common language.

The skeptic, on the other hand, lacks the ability to naturally communicate with the typical person because he questions what is asserted. The skeptic is not trafficking in alternative beliefs but in the lack of belief. This naturally means the audience willing to hear his questions is smaller than that of the fanatic. The cynic is trafficking in the denial of belief, so his market is the smallest. It is why the word cynic has a negative connotation in our democratic societies.

In the game of persuasion, the true believer starts with an enormous advantage because the majority is tuned to believe. There are enough skeptics to force the fanatics to make their case, but they get to make their case in moral terms, rather than factual ones, which is why they so often carry the day. Humans would rather do the morally right thing than the empirically right thing. This reality of the human condition is why democracy falls prey to fanatics and charlatans.

There is another piece to this. Humans in the main are believing machines so they will believe in something. This provides another advantage for the fanatic. In the absence of a better belief, the typical person will still listen to the fanatic, despite his many factual errors, until a better set of beliefs come along. Since the skeptic is never selling belief, but merely questioning it, he never reaps the rewards of his successful questioning of the fanatic. A new fanatic always steps into that breech.

It is why fanatics and charlatans have come to dominate Western countries. Since the Cold War, the West has embraced the idea of democracy, which has unleashed the fanatics and charlatans, who in turn promote democracy as the only moral choice, because it is the manure that fertilizes them. The death spiral of the West is the death spiral of every democracy. Without hard limits, the people will follow fanatics promising salvation until there is nothing left to save.

Justified Paranoia

Posted on December 11, 2023 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door I have a post about the wackiness of the real estate rackets, a post about the classic western High Noon, which is probably both overrated and underrated as a film. Then there is the Sunday podcast. You can sign up for a green door account at SubscribeStar or Substack.

If someone says something that is wrong or crazy about a topic in which you have no interest, you are most likely going to ignore them. Similarly, if the person saying these wacky things is someone you do not think has any credibility, you will not bother rebutting what they have to say. It is when someone says something incorrect or inaccurate about a topic you think is important that you respond. If you think that person has influence, you want to make sure to rebut them.

Politics in the age of the internet violates this rule as people engage with anonymous weirdos online over abstract topics all the time. There is an old meme where a guy is up late at night and his wife asks him why he is not in bed. He says, “There is a guy on the internet saying things I don’t like.” Most people are not like this, but the weirdness of this new thing depends on that reality at the start. You are not supposed to care about the words of anonymous weirdos.

That is the place to start with yet another example of the regime losing its mind over people holding the wrong opinion about the 2020 election. Here is a breakdown of the charges the Biden administration is bringing against Trump over the peaceful protests on January 6. The first thing to note is the prosecutor is using the crackpot idea of stochastic violence, which was cooked up by mentally unstable people on Twitter who thought mean tweets would cause them physical harm.

Note also that the core of the case against Trump here and in all of the January 6th persecutions is that the offenders are election denier. In many of these cases, the judge, as a part of the punishment, makes the accused say in open court that he now believes Biden won fair and square. You can be sure that the main goal of these charges against Trump is to get him to do the same. The regime and its volunteer army of toadies is obsessed with this idea.

The question is why? Since Trump came down the escalator these people have told us that Trump is a clown and his supporters are lunatics. If they genuinely believe it, then they should not care what they say. Granted, politics causes people to lose their minds, but the allegedly serious people in positions of power should not be going Daffy Duck over politics like they are a blue-haired harridans on Twitter. Yet it is important people in the regime that are berserk about this issue.

The other angle here is that if you think Biden won fair and square, then you have no reason to care about the fraud claims. Lots of far-left people swore Karl Rover rigged Ohio in 2004. They wrote books about it. No one took them seriously because their case was obvious nonsense, and they are nutters. Normal people spent five years laughing at the Russian collusion hoax for the same reason. In other words, normal people do not care about nutty claims from nutty people.

The most obvious and likely reason for this obsession by the regime and its toadies is that they think the election was rigged too. We have the hoary chestnut, “the laddie doth protest too much” for a reason. We suspect that when someone goes to great lengths to disprove an accusation that they are motivated by a fear that people will see that there is some truth in the accusation. The response should always be proportional to the accusation and the person making the accusation.

That means the root of all of this is the regime knows they went too far in the 2020 election they have now put the credibility of the system in question. They now feel the need to hunt down anyone who casts doubt on the results. This would also explain why you can still get banned from YouTube for mentioning this. Until Musk came along, Twitter was aggressively hunting down election skeptics. Three years on and the regime is still hunting people down for election skepticism.

This does not quite explain it all. By now they could have dropped it as we are deep into the next election. The trouble is, they are plotting to repeat the 2020 shenanigans, but this time they want to put Trump in jail in advance. If people were skeptical of the midnight vote counting the last time, they are going to see through any scheme to remove Trump from the ballot in 2024. Perhaps they think ending 2020 skepticism will somehow inoculate them this time.

A better answer or perhaps a companion answer is one that also explains the inappropriate response to January 6. Not only did the regime wildly overreact in the aftermath, but they have also been conducting what now looks like an elaborate coverup of wrongdoing before, during and after the event. These missing tapes have that Watergate feel to them. We could be in one of those times when the aluminum foil hat guys are the reasonable people in the room.

What explains January 6 and the kooky election denial stuff is the genuine fear that the system is far more fragile than the public knows. The people inside the black box that is Washington fear that they are sitting atop a house of cards. If the public really knew what they know, January 6 would be a day at the beach. The reason they are hunting down skeptics is they think any questioning of any aspect of the official narrative could cause the whole thing to unravel.

Another hoary chestnut that applies here is “just because you are paranoid it does not follow that no one is out to get you.” The people, including the election skeptics, may think the system is sound. It is the people running it. The people running it, however, may see it the exact opposite way. They may think they are fine, but the system itself is about to tip over and if it does, there will be hell to pay. That could be why they saw January 6 as something like Bloody Sunday.

Add to this that the people running the regime view themselves as revolutionaries in the line of the Jacobins and Bolsheviks. They were nursed on revolutionary talk and committed their lives to the slogans of the Left. They may run everything, but they still see themselves as plucky underdogs fighting the man. They know every revolution is a near run thing, so they are always in fear that their project will go sideways, and they will end up on the gallows or in the gulag.

In the end, what all this tells us is that the system and the people running it are probably not as stable as most want to believe. The system itself is no longer functioning as the users expect and the people running it are increasingly paranoid. The American political system is software that is full of bugs, run by a support staff that is shooting users who register complaints about the software. At some point you run out of users, or the users demand a new system.

The Night Of The Cobra

Posted on December 7, 2023 by thezman

The fourth and allegedly final Republican debate was held last night, featuring the final four contestants for the right to be the party nominee. The plot of these shows is to showcase the alternatives to Trump. The subtext is the not-so-secret plot by Washington to have the party remove Trump from the ballot, so one of these losers will get selected to fill the slot. What we have been getting instead is a fairly good example of systemic incompetence by the political class.

Last night’s show is a perfect example. To this point, Vivek Ramaswamy, the King Cobra, has been the glib youngster, making fun of the old squares on stage. He is glib and smart, but most importantly, he is plugged into the on-line criticism of the Republicans Party and official conservatism. He pithily says on stage what people say on Facebook and Twitter about the party. He has been the Hindu Muhammed Ali mocking the party at its own shows.

Last night was a perfect example of the staggering incompetence that has come to define not just the party by the political class. No one, including the moderator, was prepared for what the Cobra unleashed on the other three people. At the last debate he gave War Karen, Nikki Haley, the Sean Connery treatment. It was the story of the debate, but this time no one was prepared, so the Cobra rhetorically gave her a good paddling while she purred like a kitten,

The whole point of having War Karen on the stage was to make her the spokes-zombie of the Kagan Cult and thereby re-legitimize their madness as a feature of the Republican Party establishment. Instead, the Cobra has used her as a prop in his general critique of neoconservatism. Most Republican voters never heard the word “neocon” but now they know they are bad people. Like their other project, the War Karen scheme blew up in the neocon’s face.

Another character in this theater of the absurd is Fat Ann Coulter, Chris Christie, who sounds like every man’s ex-wife. His reason to exist in these shows was to be the fat loudmouth from New Jersey who could out-crude Trump, while repeating everything Ann Coulter posts about Trump on Twitter. He came into the show assuming he could fat guy bully the Cobra, but instead he got the Ned Beatty treatment. The only thing the Cobra did not do was make him squeal like a pig.

Where you really see the systemic incompetence is in the campaign of Ron “Bootsy” DeSantis, who was supposed to be Trump’s mini-me. Everything about his campaign has been terrible, because he made the decision to hand his campaign over to party hacks and Washington insiders. As a result, he has spent this year transitioning from the mouthy Italian from Florida into Mike Dukakis. He is so boring dust forms on your monitor whenever someone mentions him on-line.

Last night was a perfect example. DeSantis was programmed to attack Haley, who the dullards think is “surging in the polls.” This gave the green light to the Cobra to unleash his most furious attacks yet on the field and the party itself. His challenge to them to name a single providence in Ukraine, after they chanted the neocon lines about the war, was a thing of beauty. War Karen and Fat Ann Coulter were poleaxed, while Bootsy looked like he was about to poo himself.

The point here is this should never have been allowed to happen. A modestly competent party would have never allowed the Cobra on the stage, much less allowed him to eviscerate their candidates. Of course, even the Stupid Party would have turned Trump 2016 into an asset. The party of Reagan would have co-opted Trump and had him sign off on all of their pet projects. The modern party is run by girls and homosexuals so it is getting shredded by a call center supervisor.

To this point the Cobra has been an amusing warmup act to the big show featuring Trump as the main attraction in 2024. Until these last two debates it was inconceivable that the Cobra could win the nomination. His thorough humiliation of the other actors on the stage suggests anything is possible. Imagine the party eliminating Trump only to get out played by the Cobra at the convention. In a world run by increasingly stupid people, the safe bet is the dumbest idea you can imagine.

From the dissident perspective, we have to hope that Trump remembers why he had urinals installed at his villa in Florida and picks the Cobra to be his running mate after the first few primaries. This would be the ultimate mind rape of the Borg we call the mass media, and it would make for a great show. Trump would unleash some boomer jibes and the Cobra would amplify them with millennial online jargon. It would be like 4Chan became a pollical party and ran for office.

It is a terrible way to run an empire, but given the collection of sissies, entitled women and simpletons that is the alternative, having a collection of shit-posters run things will at least provide some laughs as we careen into the void. Otherwise, it means the collapse is managed by the same people who thought it was a good idea to promote a ball-shriveling shrew like War Karen as an alternative to Trump. Everyone will be praying for sweet death as the empire collapses.

Sadly, that is not the way to bet. There is a reason our literature is not filled with amusing tales of the end of prior empires. The end of the established order is never a good time for the people living it. Collapse is never fun, and the collapse of the American empire will be no exception. It will be War Karen, Fat Ann Coulter, and the rest until the men of the West have had enough, spit on their hands, raise the black flag and begin splitting throats.

Orphan Child

Posted on December 5, 2023 by thezman

After the Bay of Pigs debacle, John F. Kennedy supposedly said, “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” Whether or not he actually said it is unknown, but the expression has been with us ever since. Supposedly it was an updated version of the Tacitus line, “It is the singularly unfair peculiarity of war that the credit of success is claimed by all, while a disaster is attributed to one alone.” Kennedy was pithier but Tactus captures the truth of the matter.

We are seeing this with the Ukraine war. The news from the battlefields is uniformly bad for the Ukrainian army. The West is slowly coming to terms with the reality of the much publicized counter-offensive, which ended in disaster soon after it was launched, but the West spent the last few months in denial. Ukraine does not publish numbers as far as casualties, but independent guessing suggests they lost between seventy and one hundred thousand men in the counter-offensive.

As the overall condition of the Ukraine military comes into focus, the recriminations are beginning to turn up in Western media. This long story in the Washington Post is a good example of the general tone. Washington is looking to place the blame on the Ukrainians, while the Ukrainians are placing the blame on their Western backers or on one another as the situation warrants. Europe has yet to join the blame game, but in time they will no doubt blame the Ukrainians.

Another pithy expression that is useful regarding the Ukraine debacle is “You learn more from your failures than your successes.” Washington never learns from its failures, which is why they have the Ukraine debacle, but the rest of us can gain some insight into how our pollical leaders stumble into these disasters by looking at some of the major blunders in this war. How they managed to reach this point speaks to how they view the world and their role in it.

The first major blunder was getting into a land war with Russia. This is right up there with “Never getting into a land war in Asia” and the slightly less well-known “Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.” The Russians are bad at many things but when it comes to fighting a land war, they are exceptional. When they view the land war as an existential threat it quickly becomes a great patriotic war and the whole of Russia organizes to defeat the enemy.

This is what the West managed to do in what should have been a low-grade border conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The West made this into a game of the world against Russia and the Russians accepted the challenge. The sanctions regime was clearly intended to hurt average Russians, which made it easy for the Russian leadership to recast this conflict as this generations great patriotic war. That war is with the West, not just the Ukrainians.

The question is why did the West do this? The reason is they assumed Russia was too weak to fight an actual war. They came to this conclusion not based on observable facts but on the power of their own rhetoric. They kept saying that Russia was a “gas station masquerading as a country” so often that they believed it. Instead of looking at what was happening in Russia, the West told themselves appealing stories about what would happen if they blew hard enough on the Russian house of cards.

This gets to the second colossal error of the West. The Russians crossed into Ukraine with a force of about one hundred thousand men with the assumption the West would demand a peace meeting. They were not prepared for an actual war. Ukraine, on the other hand, had an army of over three hundred thousand regular army troops and another three hundred thousand reserves. Russia, the attacker, was outnumbered three-to-one one by Ukraine, the defender.

In the spring of 2022, the Ukrainians had a chance to smash the Russian army if they went on the offensive. It would have come at a price, but they could have pushed the Russian back into the Donbas and maybe out completely. Instead, the Ukrainians dug into defensive positions along the line of contact. This gave the Russians time to reorganize their lines into more defendable positions and begin the process of building a much larger force to take on the Ukrainians.

The reason Ukraine did this is they were repeatedly told by their Western backers that Russia could never sustain an army in the field for long. The best people ran to their favorite media outlets predicting an imminent Russian collapse. The intellectual everyone in the West considers a seer claimed early on that Russia would not just lose but disintegrate as a result of the war. The fact that Fukuyama has not been right about anything in his career has not lowered his status in the West.

Here again we see that the West blundered into a catastrophic mistake not because they misread the evidence but because they confused their own magical thinking about the world and their role in it with reality. People with what passes for impressive credentials in the managerial class spun fabulous tales about the imminent collapse of Russia and those tales became reality for the war machine. Meanwhile, the Russian army used this time to prepare for what we see happening now.

This brings up the third colossal error. Having figured out that Russia was not going to disintegrate in the face of what amounted to an internet cancel campaign, the West prepared Ukraine for a big arrow offensive. They conscripted close to one hundred thousand fresh troops, trained them in NATO tactics and supplied them with NATO weapons for the purpose to driving the Russians out of the Donbas. This was the great spring counter-offensive that kicked off in the summer.

In the early hours of the offensive, columns of Western armor barreled into the Russia outer defensive lines in the south with the aim of driving to the Sea of Azov. Instead, they bogged down in massive minefields. The mine clearing equipment provided by the West turned out to be useless for the task, so the armored columns were trapped in the minefields and obliterated by Russian artillery. A large area in the south is called Bradley Park because it is full of destroyed Bradley fighting vehicles.

It is impossible to overstate the failure here. The Ukrainians not only lost the entire army assembled for the task, but they stripped their lines in order to supplement this army on the expectation that it would smash through the Russian defenses and those reserves would then flood into the breech. Instead, these reserves were thrown into what was called a meatgrinder. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians were killed and maimed in order to capture one tiny village in the south.

What is even more stunning than the enormity of the failure is the fact that Western military planners were so slow to accept reality. Even as it was clear that the Russian defenses were too strong, General Milley was talking like it was just a matter of time before they collapsed and Ukraine rolled to victory. Even after thousands of videos appeared online of burning Western tanks, Western generals kept saying that things were on schedule for a glorious victory.

The result of this catastrophe is Ukraine no longer has offensive capabilities and is struggling to maintain its defensive positions in key areas. The massive losses of men and material cannot be replaced. Ukraine is running out of men to conscript for the war and the West is out of equipment to send them. This is why we are seeing reports in Western media talking about who is to blame. No one wants to be the father of what is going to be a collapse of Ukraine in 2024.

The theme throughout this two-year debacle is that the people making the decisions have substituted a preferred reality for actual reality. These are the type of people John Derbyshire once described in another context as those who are “awfully good at creating elaborate, plausible, and intellectually very challenging systems that do not, in fact, have any truth content.” For the last two years their version of reality has crashed into a reality that rests on the truth, not narrative.

The Ukraine debacle is a microcosm of what plagues the West. The people in charge are long on credentials that are meaningful only within the artificial reality that is the managerial class. The result is an echo chamber populated with credentialed idiots who compete with one another to produce the most pleasing sounding narrative to describe what they imagine lies outside their reality. They live in a simulation but seek to impose what they experience on the world around them.

These are the same people now operating the court system based on their paranoid fantasies about invisible enemies and staffing the air traffic control system to match their image of the inclusive society. What lies ahead for the West is what we are seeing in Ukraine which is the fantasies of a delusional and deranged ruling class smashing into the reality of the world, all paid for by the common man. Reality is that thing that does not go away when you stop believing in it.

The Argentine Question

Posted on November 30, 2023 by thezman

The subtext to the improbable election of Javier Milei revolves around a question that has haunted Argentina for generations. Why is this country such a mess? For as long as anyone can recall, Argentina has been synonymous with South American disfunction, to the point where the name of the country is often used as an epithet to criticize first world countries. There was even a Broadway play based on the life of a famous Argentine lunatic named Eva Perón.

The first place to start is the ruling elite. If you do an image search of “Argentine leaders” you get a collection of images that would answers the same question if you replaced Argentina with Italy or Spain. Like most South American countries, the ruling elite looks like the colonial elite that founded these countries. In some of these countries, they have been ruled by a small set of families since the 16th century when their ancestors arrived from Spain.

In other words, you do not see the Venezuela problem. In some of the more dysfunctional countries in the region, you have indigenous leaders rising up to claim some power, which always ends in disaster. They tend to be Marxists, but the illiterate sort that just understand the theft and violence parts. Venezuela is a rich country in terms of natural resources and location, but the smart fraction was chased off long ago by indigenous lunatics, so it is a basket case.

On the surface, Argentina does not have this problem. The most notorious ruler of the place was the Latin fascist Juan Perón. Anyone who has been around international organizations like the IMF or World Bank knows the sort. Perón was a populist and demagogue, but he was also highly educated and sophisticated. His politics were a populist suit her wore to garner support, but he was a man of the European elite that has run the country since forever.

The point is the ruling class of Argentina is not a lot different from the ruling elites you see in better functioning countries. Perón is typical of the ruling class in that his family tree has Spanish, French and English ancestry. Go through the long list of Argentine rulers and all of them trace their roots to the old country. You never see any references to Africans or Amerindian ancestry. The rulers always look like the sort of people who spend their career at places like the UN or now the EU.

In other words, Argentina is a country rich in natural resources, has a prime location on global trade routes and has an educated and sophisticated ruling class. On paper, it should be one of the more prosperous countries in the New World. Instead, it has been defined by government incompetence, corruption, and some of the most outlandishly terrible economic policies on the planet. Argentina has become synonymous with every failed economic policy to come out of the academy.

One clue as to why Argentina is a mess is the people. The average IQ of the population is 87 according to the most recent data. People will quibble about this score, but it is best to think of these numbers comparatively. Japan clocks in at 106, so that means the Japanese are more than a full standard deviation smarter than Argentines. Even if the measures themselves are not precise, which is surely the case, the margin of error will be similar for every country.

To give this gap some clarity, imagine a population full of people who could test into law school or business school. Assume they have not actually attended college or graduate school, but their test scores indicate they could do it. Now take a population of high school dropouts whose test scores indicate they are going to struggle getting their GED while in prison. That sounds a bit extreme, but the typical prisoner in the United States is going to have an IQ similar to the typical Argentine.

Now, take that collection of smart people and make them the talented two percent of the population and the collection of dumb guys is the population. For starters, the average IQ of the population will not change much. The average IQ of the population jumps about one point with this new smart fraction. Make it the talented ten percent and the average IQ jumps three points. In other words, in our experiment, that smart fraction is not going to change things very much.

The way to think of every human organization is to imagine a man carrying a sack full of ro9cks up an incline. The steeper the incline, the slower his pace. The more rocks in the sack, the slower the pace. The smaller the man, the slower the pace. The man is the smart fraction, while the sack in society. The incline will be the natural resources available to that society. The greater the resources, the softer the incline, while fewer resources gets a steeper incline.

Japan is a big man with a small sack, but facing a relatively steep incline due to Japan being an island nation. Even so, Japan is a rich and modern place due to the large smart fraction and the relatively small dumb fraction. On the other hand, Somalia is a tiny man dragging a boulder up a cliff wall. The smart fraction, such as it was, now lives in Minnesota leaving the rest to make what they can from very little. No amount of clever political theory is fixing Somalia.

This explains why Argentina remains an ungovernable mess. Of course, the good times in the country have often been under non-democratic rule. When you combine democracy with a low-IQ voting base, the result is populist demagogues who promise to use their power to overcome nature. The pattern in Argentina is authoritarianism, followed by democracy, followed by populism, which leads to collapse and the return of the authoritarian to restore order.

Javier Milei is toward the collapse portion of the cycle. This enigmatic weirdo, whose first act after winning election was to convert to Judaism and make a pilgrimage to the Hassidic community of New York, is in the populist tradition. He has decorated his populism with libertarian slogans, but what the voters heard was that he will take from the elites and give to the people. Given the IQ of the population, most could probably not be able to tell a libertarian from a rhinoceros.

Given his backers, there is a good chance that Milei will succeed in pushing through his changes, as they have been done before. He will put the economy on the dollar, and this will stabilize prices for a spell. Then the shortage of dollars will lead to borrowing from his backers in dollars. Those bonds will then be passed off onto American pension funds and other institutional investors. This will continue until the Argentine government can no longer make its interest payments.

What Argentina tells us is what every ball coach knows. It is not about the X’s and O’s, but the Jimmy’s and Joe’s. In the realm of sport, a great coach can only do so much with bad players. His great coaching and brilliant strategy will always run into the limits of his players. In the realm of human society, the political and economic systems will always be limited by the available human capital. it is why the Nordic countries made socialism work, while Argentina cannot make anything work.

There is another useful lesson here for people in the West. The people running Argentina have always known the math of their human capital. This is a truth that is spoken about openly in the homes and offices of the ruling class. Despite the limits it puts on their ambitions, this gap between them and the masses is what keeps them in the elite, ruling over those masses. It turns out that being a smart fish in dumb pond is a pretty good path to the good life.

This is one reason Western elites love low-IQ immigration. It is like an acid on the middle-class, diluting the layer just below them. Sure, mass migration means the subways are unusable and much of the cities are too dangerous for cafe life, but it beats having to compete with smart strivers from the middle ranks. Western elites look at Argentina and envy their rulers. No matter how stupid they are, they never have to worry about being displaced by people with genuine talent.

The Israel Problem

Posted on November 22, 2023 by thezman

The founding of Israel seventy-five years ago brought with it a problem that has never been resolved, one that is at the heart of the current troubles. In fact, times of trouble operate as a reprieve from the hard work of ignoring that central issue. Israeli leaders can stimulate Western leaders into worrying about what Israel means to them, rather than what it is. The current war in Gaza lets the American Right forget its troubles and cheer blindly for its favorite country.

That central problem at the heart of it all is the definition of Israel itself. The “Jewish state” is a label used by Israelis, especially those on the Zionist side, and one that should raise some question. No one uses the term “Irish state” or the “German state” when describing those countries. No one would dare call Germany the home of the German people, but Western commentators disposed to Israel comfortably say that Israel is the home of the Jewish people.

Israel is by design, an ethnostate. It is the only self-declared and self-defined ethnostate in the modern world. From the very beginning, the point of Israel was to be the homeland of ethnic Jews. This is the central problem for Israel. To be a citizen of an ethnostate requires one to be accepted into as a member of that ethnicity. You cannot just one day decide to be a Jew and emigrate to Israel. Unlike Western countries, Israel is not an idea. It is a genetic threshold.

This is the problem Israel faced on day one. At its founding, the newly minted Israelites found themselves with lots of non-Jews in their lands. Those non-Jews could never be citizens, as that would violate the logic of the ethnostate. Those non-Jews were not going to voluntarily evacuate for new lands, so it meant Israel had a population of aliens in its midst that could never be assimilated. Like a pebble in your shoe, this non-Jewish population would be an irritant to the Jewish state.

Israel could extend most of the rights and privileges of citizenship to this non-Jewish population in an effort to pacify them, but they could never extend all of the rights and privileges to them. The non-Jews are not citizens and can never be citizens, so therefore they must always be suspect. In any two-tiered status system one class must be superior and the other inferior and this must lead to conflict. From the start, Israel was saddled with a hostile alien population.

Of course, the logic of the ethnostate demands that Israel do what it must to expel this non-Jewish population from its midst. Again, the whole point of the ethnostate is to create a homeland exclusive to your people. The reason Israel exists is to clear and hold the land of Israel for the Jews and only the Jews. Add in the natural hostility of the dispossessed minority population and conflict was inevitable. By definition, Jews can never be at peace with the minority population.

If that minority population were Mongols or Bantus, people with no natural connection to anyone in the region, this would have been an easily solved problem. Obviously, that was never the case, so this inevitable and necessary conflict with the non-Jewish population has defined Israel’s relationship with the Arab world. If Israel were, as Ben Shapiro is fond of saying, a nation of ideas, this would not be the case, but Israel is an ethnostate which sets it apart from all other nations.

This would be true even if the surrounding nations were ethnostates. The logic of the ethnostate starts with the assumption that the people of the proposed ethnostate are superior to other people. A people cannot demand a land of their own unless they think they deserve it. That can only come if those people, at some level, see themselves as superior to others, at least with regards to their claims for a homeland. Exclusivity begins with the claim of superiority in some critical respect.

Compounding things for Israel is the fact that their definition of a homeland includes territories now currently occupied by others. This has been true from the founding of Israel in 1948. Just look at old maps and it is easy to see. Israel is the only country in the modern era to expand its borders at the expense of its neighbors. It does this because the logic of its existence requires it. It is why the first response to the Hamas attack was the call to expel the people from Gaza.

This is the crux of the “Israel’s right to exist” debate. The Arabs understand the logic of the Israeli ethnostate and what that must mean for them. Israel’s right to exist means her right to expel non-Jews from the lands claimed by Israel. It also means using whatever means necessary against those defending those non-Jews. The non-Jews living in those lands can never agree to those terms. Therefore, they can never accept Israel’s right to exists, at least not as an ethnostate.

This also explains the ruthlessness of Israel’s response to Hamas. The unspoken truth of the Israeli – Gaza relationship is the people in Gaza must go away to that this land can be absorbed into greater Israel. Any resistance to that is viewed as a threat to the very idea of Israel, which warrants a maximum response. From the perspective of the Zionists, genocide of the Palestinians is a proportional response to the terrorist raid perpetrated by Gaza last month.

Obviously, this flies in the face of Western political morality, but money can buy a lot of political blinders. That and there is a strong Christian Zionist subculture in the United States that provides easy cover for the political class. Washington can pretend they are catering to public support for Israel, while cashing checks from the Israel lobby on the condition they never mention the reality of the Israel ethnostate. Meanwhile, Palestinian refugees prepare to emigrate to your town.

Send In The Clowns

Posted on November 21, 2023 by thezman

Note: Thinking about doing a mailbag show for Friday. If anyone has an interesting question, post it up here or on Gab.

President Harry S. Truman famously said is a speech at the end of his career that if it is a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article. He was giving a pre-election pep talk to his fellow Democrats who were downcast at their prospects in 1952. His point was that if you proudly give the voters an alternative to the other option, they will at least consider what you have to say and may even vote for you.

It is interesting to note that the two parties were having a uniparty problem way back in the middle of the last century, but it is the nature of democratic systems. Like all markets, they eventually converge on one dominant market player. It is why we have one operating system maker, two mobile phone makers and so on. In the marketplace, people seek safety, which is a form of protection. As Robert Nozick noted, protection must always lead to a monopoly or something close to it.

Like consumers in a grocery store staring at rows of the same product, people will flock to novelty, even if the market prefers predictability. We are seeing this in Argentina where the voters elected what can best be described as an autistic Austin Powers character as their next president. Javier Milei won Sunday’s run-off against Peronist former Minister of Economy Sergio Massa. It was a stunning victory for a man who promises to radically change the Argentine economy.

Javier Milei is the next in line in what has become a tradition that started with Beppe Grillo a dozen years ago in Italy. He was the former television comic who formed a joke party to run for office, which quickly turned into a social phenomenon. Getting back to what Truman said, given the choice between people acting like clowns, the voters in democracies have repeatedly picked the genuine clowns. Trump, Bolsonaro, Meloni and now Milei have come to power this way.

That is not to say that these eccentric candidates have not come with a real platform and a genuine list of issues. It is that their primary appeal is their eccentricity. A more traditional presentation would have failed, even if the issues were popular, because part of the problem for voters is the dreadful sameness of the candidates. One of the ironies of “our democracy” is it produces gold-plated phonies. The least relatable people on the planet are popular political figures.

Of course, it goes deeper than just a desire for authenticity. The unspoken truth of politics for the last thirty years is the sense that something is deeply wrong, despite the relative material prosperity. One reason so many were so quick to embrace the Covid madness is the sense that we were about to get what we deserved. Mother Nature was about to balance the scales with a great plague. These eccentric candidates are something of a search for absolution by the voters.

There is also an end of time issue with many of them. Italy has been convulsed with populism since Beppe Grillo because no one is able to answer the big question that hangs over every human society. Why does it exist? Italians no longer have a reason to exist, which is why they have stopped having children. People like Grillo and now Meloni offer some hope for a purpose. Their anger and eccentricity are a little bit of light in the gathering darkness of their civilization.

This may be the case in Argentina where they have been ruled by a combination of kleptocrats and maniacs for generations. One party steals the nation’s resources on behalf of international interests in the name of fiscal discipline until the people grow weary of it and replace them with the maniacs. These are the socialists who then start printing money to buy happiness until inflation gets out of control and the banks stop lending them money or accepting pesos for debts.

This is where Argentina is now. They currently have inflation at 120%, a swelling debt crisis and a stagnant economy. In addition to being an entertaining weirdo during the campaign, Milei promised to dollarize the economy, de-unionize the private sector, cut taxes, and restore private property rights. He calls himself a libertarian, but he has not promised to give free weed and porn to children or convert to Bitcoin. Perhaps he is saving that for his second act.

This is where Milei will turn out to be like the other eccentrics that have paraded across the stage of democracies over the last decade. There is little chance he will get any of his agenda implemented. The two main parties still control all of the important institutions, so they will collude to block his initiatives. Another feature of democracy is the controlling parties are incentivized to not address genuine problems. The metastasizing social ills are the systems’ defense mechanism.

In the end, that may be the function of these eccentric populist characters that are turning up in democratic politics. They gain support mostly because they are a break from the dreary reality of the system. If voting is not going to lead to good public policy, then at least it can lead to amusing failure. If food prices rise faster than you can count pesos, then maybe having autistic Austin Powers staring back at you through the television will take your mind off things.

So far that has been the result. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement accomplished nothing, other than helping the EU sidetrack genuine reform. Trump and Bolsonaro, of course, were stymied by the system. Meloni’s angry housewife act remains popular, but her administration is the same as her predecessor. What all of these eccentric characters are, in the end, is proof that there is no voting your way out of the problems of liberal democracy.

The Emerging Uniparty

Posted on November 16, 2023 by thezman

Note: I contracted German Ebola on my trip to the Fatherland so in addition to having a rocket high fever, I have also lost my voice. I may post something tomorrow, but it is not looking good right now.

The concept of the uniparty has been around a long time, long before political hucksters started using it as catchphrase. The fear of the major parties conspiring with one another to shortcut the will of the people goes back to the 19th century. On the one hand, the two parties should compromise, but on the other hand they should be competing for the approval of the voters. The line between cooperation and conspiracy is not easy to define, but it is assumed to exist.

In the modern age, the uniparty idea has mostly circulated on the Right, because conservatives keep voting harder but always get more of the same. When the Republicans win, they immediately fink on their voters. When they are in the minority, they bend over backwards to help the Democrats. The uniparty in this context is a way of saying that both parties serve the same master. The master can be whatever you like, but it is not the American people.

The truth is the uniparty has been in control since the end of the Second World War when America emerged as a global empire. The “Cold War consensus” was an agreed upon moral framework in which both parties operated. They could tolerate the eccentric oddball here and there for color, but the two parties made sure the people in important position were fully onboard with the consensus. The disputes within the consensus were about how to reach the shared goals.

This is why Ronald Reagan was so worrisome at first. The consensus on the Soviets had evolved to be a choice between detente and appeasement. Reagan and his team were looking to go back to the hawkish approach of the Kennedy years. It was not just foreign policy that worried Washington. Reagan and his team were full of big talk about rolling back the welfare state. In the end, Reagan and the conservatives agreed to operate within the consensus on everything.

That was not the same thing as the uniparty though. Today it feels like the parties not only collude with one another, but they laugh about it. The new tough talking Speaker of the House just pushed through a continuing resolution to keep funding government at current rates with the help of the Democrats. In fact, more Democrats voted for the bill than Republicans. The GOP went through all that drama about picking a Speaker only to get one who prefers working with the other party.

This is becoming more common. It is not just that the Republicans fink on their conservative voters and the Democrats fink on their crazies. It is that they collude with one another in the finking and do so in the open. Twenty years ago, they put on a big show about this stuff, but now it is as if they are tired of pretending. In a world where incumbents win 95% of the time, why bother with the show? We may be about to see Washington embrace the uniparty concept.

Look at what the neocons are plotting on the Republican side. They are positioning Nikki Haley as the last shrew standing, so that when Trump is disqualified from the ballot, she will be the party nominee. Haley would fit much better in the other party as she agrees with them on the important issues. The only difference between Haley and Biden is Haley is shriller. The Republican Party is plotting to run an orange version of Hillary Clinton and no one in the party thinks this is weird.

Of course, the reason this will happen is both parties locked shields after the 2016 election to block Trump. If the Republicans had provided Trump with the support he needed to get his agenda passed, it would have been a mostly normal presidency and he probably would have won in 2020. Instead, both parties went berserk and what followed was four years of mayhem and now four years of a doddering old simpleton that routinely makes a fool of himself in public.

What we are about to see is the uniparty emerge in full to both end the Biden madness and wall off politics from the bulk of the voters. Both parties will celebrate the election of the first hostile alien as president. Meanwhile, most voters want something entirely different, but that will never be on offer, so you can vote for any candidate you like as long as she is approved by the uniparty. If you complain then War Karen will have the tech companies hand your name to the usual suspects.

The next step from here is to just get rid of the party labels entirely. Not too long ago they meant something, but that is no longer the case. It is not just the disgruntled who think this but the parties themselves. Again, with the system rigged so it is close to impossible to get voted out of office, why would the parties need to keep up this charade of the two-party system? When you think about it, it is insulting. Not insulting to you but to them. No one cares about you.

One party states are common, so a one-party country is not a stretch. Most Latin American countries are one party systems. There are opposition parties, but they rarely win power and when they do, they are soon deposed. France has become a one-party system along with Germany. They have multiple parties, but the main parties all collude with one another to keep power to themselves. For America to follow the same path, but more explicitly, is not hard to imagine.

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