Some Regimeology

Posted on October 26, 2022 by thezman

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Regimeology is a concept that needs much broader interest, as it is becoming an essential tool to understanding the current age. As the regime blacks out its windows and boards up the exits, the only way to understand what is happening inside the black box that is the ruling elite is to analyze the actions and media statements to then tease out some explanation for what we can observe. Like Kremlinology, it is the only tool we have to understand what is happening inside the system.

We have something new to analyze. The so-called progressive caucus sent a letter to the White House and the senior members of the inner party suggesting they were not onboard with the Ukraine war. They were careful to not break with official dogma on the war, but they were signaling to their supporters that they may at some point begin to question Ukraine policy. It was a very tepid bit of pushback, but they made the letter public so their fans could see it.

The reason they did this is the antiwar left is freaking out about the war and the fact that no one in the party they support is opposing it. The Bernie Sanders wing is supposed to be opposed to these wars and the machine behind them. Yet in this case they are silently nodding along with the warmongers. A group of antiwar people ambushed Sandy Cortez at an event where she was spouting neocon lines about the war and the resulting video was a huge embarrassment for her.

It was a nice little peak inside how the regime uses the far left to manipulate the various tribes that make up the Democratic coalition. They let these people speak against regime policy as a pressure release, but the unwritten rule is they can never threaten to block regime policy. It is the same theater the outer party uses to keep conservatives showing up to the polls. The guys at Trump rallies wearing tricorn hats are not the only chumps exploited by this system.

The interesting bit here is how quickly the hammer came down. The Biden White House and senior party members held an emergency meeting and then threatened the progressive caucus with death if they did not recant. We do not know the exact nature of the threats, but the speed with which the apostates recanted and their groveling tone suggest genuine fear. Whatever was said to them was serious enough to have them groveling in public within hours.

Just in case anyone missed the point, the regime then sent Bernie Sanders out to chastise the progressives for being wrong. Sanders has spent his life railing against the military industrial complex. He has opposed every military action, even those sponsored by his party. Now he sounds like Bill Kristol after a few too many drinks. Bernie is not just supporting the war; he is supporting the war dogma behind it. He felt he needed to get that out into the public domain.

The old internet meme about knowing who is in charge by thinking about who you are not allowed to criticize works here. If you want to know what it is important to the regime, think about what cannot be questioned. It is clear that they will tolerate no dissent on Ukraine policy, not even from the people they use to manipulate the left-wing activist class. In other words, they are willing to lose the support of their activist base in order to defend their Ukraine policy.

This is why the outer party has been silent on the war. There is no support for the Ukraine war policy, so the opposition party should be waving this around as part of the argument against their opponents. Most Americans would like to see a negotiated settlement to a problem they do not think is our problem. Despite the overwhelming support for a moderate position, everyone in the outer party is just as extreme as everyone in the inner party.

The question is why has the ruling class pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table on this issue? Objectively it is a bad bet. Ukraine is a backward and deeply corrupt country with no real chance of winning this war. The only reason it has gone this far is some version of why Bolshevism succeeded. The old line was that communism was the result of Jewish brains, Latvian swords and Russian stupidity. This war is the product of neocon paranoia, American arms and Russian stupidity.

That may be one clue as to why Washington is obsessed with this war. It is the last stand for the post-Cold War consensus and the neocon place within it. A settlement with the Russians on Ukraine would lead to a settlement on many other issues, like the wars against Syria and Iran. If you can make a deal with the Russians in one area, then there is no reason to not make a deal in other areas. In other words, the neocons need Russia as the eternal enemy in order to exist.

Another possible reason is the general paranoia of the aging leadership. Old people in power naturally get suspicious of the next generation. Look around Washington and across the board you see ossified geezers locked in place. Rather than the paranoia of one or two fossils it is a culture of paranoia among a gerontocracy. The Ukraine war just happens to be the issue through which they are exercising their intolerance of dissent, but it could be any issue.

Of course, there is always graft. Hundreds of billions are flowing into what is now a giant money laundering operation. This is the bust out of all bust outs and every serious player in Washington is getting a taste. The only place more dangerous than the area between a principled conservative and money is the area between a committed progressive and the same pile of money. As the saying goes, never mess with a man’s money or his women. Got that Jack?

Regardless, it suggests that the regime sees this war as one they cannot afford to lose, much in the same way Washington viewed Vietnam fifty years ago. Back then, that worthless backwater was the hill to die on for reasons no one could explain, but no one was allowed to question until it was too late. It is ironic that a generation that was born in the protests against the Vietnam war is closing the show by making the same errors policy makers made with regards to Vietnam policy.

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The Great Mistake

Posted on October 24, 2022 by thezman

Note: The Monday Taki post is up and this week I decided to change gears and write about a past hero of the cause. Sunday Thoughts was on break while I was away at a secret handshake meeting, but I have posted some travelogues. I will be posting some more detailed information about the event this week so if you do not have a subscription, get one. SubscribeStar and Substack.

Over the weekend news began to leak out about a series of calls between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his counterparts in Turkey, The United States, France and Great Britain. The purpose of these calls, reportedly initiated by the Russians, was to warn of the possible Ukrainian use of a radioactive bomb, a dirty, bomb, in the coming days or weeks. The point of the bomb was to escalate the war in order to force NATO to directly intervene in the conflict.

The Russians also reportedly said they had intelligence that the Ukrainians were getting help on this project from the British. It is largely assumed that it was the British that provided the intelligence and logistics to smuggle the truck bomb onto the Kerch Bridge two weeks ago. It is also assumed that the British helped the assassin with the murder of Alexander Dugin’s daughter. The British have been intimately involved with the war since the very beginning.

Interestingly, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace denied the claims but then quickly added that the Russians should not use this thing they deny is happening as a pretext for escalating the war. The American version of this bit of double-speak was almost identical, suggesting some level of cooperation. Given that various Biden administration officials have been claiming the Russians will use nukes on Ukraine, this has the look of the kid caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

Another clue about what is really going on is the fact that former CIA director General Petraeus has been sent on a public relations tour to prepare the media for the entry of American troops into Ukraine. Here he is three weeks ago talking about a hypothetical that no one considered plausible at the time. Here is a story about the 101st Airborne training in Poland for the purpose of joining the fighting in Ukraine. In other words, the narrative makers in the West have been hard at work.

Interestingly, the Ukrainians were not ready for their usual story telling and had to scramble in response to the Russian calls to the West. Zelensky does not do anything without permission from his Western advisors who are always in the room with him, so it would seem the Russians caught everyone by surprise, not only with the calls but with making sure they got into Western media. Zelensky then came out with the claim that the Russians planned to nuke themselves as a false flag.

One cannot help but detect a pattern with the false flag business. The Ukrainians claimed the Russians killed Dugin’s daughter as a false flag. They claimed the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines was a Russian false flag. They made the same claim about the Kerch Bridge and the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan, which is held by the Russians. Someone in the Zelensky media team has a bizarre obsession with this particular narrative structure.

Putting that aside, we have two competing stories. The Russians, who have repeatedly ruled out using nuclear weapons, but have been warning that this war could easily escalate to nuclear conflict, are saying that the Ukrainians are planning to use a dirty bomb and blame it on Russia. The West is saying they are totally innocent and it is the Russians who are planning to use a dirty bomb on themselves and then use that as an excuse to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

If you are inclined to believe what you hear from Washington and their media organs, you will want to accept their version of this story. If you are skeptical of the people who lie to you every day about the most trivial matters, then you are probably thinking that the Russians are telling the truth. It is impossible to know the truth at this point, but one should always leave open the possibility of a third option. Both sides could simply be psyoping one another on this issue.

Regardless of the truth, it reveals a serious problem for the West. They have pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table, betting on the prospects of a deeply corrupt country run by a narcissistic sociopath. The one thing everyone can agree upon is Zelensky is just an actor hired to play the role of president. This is the role of a lifetime for him and he has thrown himself into completely. Much now depends on the mood of an actor high on the attention of a global audience.

Tucker Carlson touched on this last week when he highlighted the absurd demands being made by Zelensky. This pint-sized potentate is calling Western media demanding that he be supplied hundreds of billions in aid. If an American mayor or governor made a tiny fraction of these demands he would be pilloried. It has somehow become completely normal for this nut to demand massive sacrifices from Western people in order to perpetuate a war with Russia.

This is not without president. America’s unconditional commitment to Israel has led to several disastrous wars against Islam. Officially, the Afghan war cost $2.3 trillion and the total bill for the neocon wars is $5.8 trillion. Not all of this can be laid at the feet of the Israelis, or the Saudis, who also played a role in these wars, but it is the danger that comes when large countries make open ended commitments to defend small countries in their wars with other countries.

The Founders strongly opposed these sorts of foreign commitments. Washington explained the danger of “entangling alliances” in his farewell address. John Quincy Adams echoed those same sentiments a generation later. When a nation considers another nation a friend, it inevitably takes on the friends and enemies of that nation, which inevitably warps the decision making of the country, putting the interests of foreigners ahead of the people.

It is important to remember that the last two European wars were due in large part to great powers aligning with minor powers. It is fair to argue that war with German was inevitable, but the British commitment to the Poles certainly guaranteed it. Western commitments to Ukraine look a lot like the same error. Nuclear war now hinges on the mood of an emotionally unstable circus performer. The so called great powers are now led around by a tiny corrupt backwater.

This will not end well.

The Political Vice

Posted on October 20, 2022 by thezman

The British oddsmakers are not giving new prime minister Liz Truss much of a chance to survive the year, putting the odds at 1-in-8. They are posting wagers on her probable replacement, which is a good sign they are confident they will have plenty of action in the near term. You can wager on just about anything in Britain but the point of posting odds is to attract action. If the oddsmakers are posting odds on the next prime minister it means there is a demand for it.

From an American perspective it is a bit amusing because of the over-the-top way in which the media talks about these things. It is like how British sports announcers turn a mundane sport like soccer into life and death drama. Every player heroically passes the ball to some other hero, who courageously passes it back. They are doing the same thing with the political squabbles within the Tory party. They are carrying on as if the island will flip over if they pick the wrong person.

The British are in political crisis because the people who actually run the country never forgave Boris Johnson for supporting Brexit. The fact is, the elites in Britain all wanted to be fully integrated into Europe. They loathed the very idea of Brexit and detested the people who supported it, which is the majority of the people. Just as everywhere else, British elites, and those who think they are elites, define themselves by the degree to which they hate the average subject.

The elites shoved old Boris over the side without thinking much about who would replace him because of another quirk of modern Western elites. They never think more than once move ahead when on the attack. When scheming to line their own pockets, they are masters of eight dimensional chess. When they get their feelings hurt, they tend to blindly and maliciously strike out while howling in pain. They never think about what happens after they get their revenge.

This is what is happening in Britain. They got revenge on old Boris, but then they had no suitable replacement, so they were stuck with Liz Truss. She is a simpleton, so this has quickly blown up on them. Now they have to find a way to push her over the edge and find a different empty suit to play the role of PM. The odds are the next person will be terrible and this will force new elections. The other party will be declared the winner and then the drama comes to an end.

The only reason this is interesting is that it will be a story we see all over the West in the coming months, even in America. The midterms are shaping up to be a disaster for the Democrats, so they will be forced to address their Joe Biden problem. He is not going to go quietly, because his handlers need him to stay. Joe Biden is a shuffling husk, but the people holding important jobs in the administration need him in the job so they can hold onto those important jobs. Dementia Joe is useful.

Regardless, the people who actually run Washington will conclude that they have a Joe Biden problem after the election. The trouble is the next in line makes Liz Truss sound like Cicero, so pushing Biden over the edge will just create new problems, but wounded animals do not think that far ahead. We could very well see a replay in Washington of what is happening in London. Biden is forced out for health reasons, then Harris is forced out because everyone remembers that she is an idiot.

Of course, as the political turmoil in the West heats up over the next year, the popular explanation will be that it is due to bad economics. Inflation, shortages, recession and energy prices will get the blame. You see this happening in Britain where inflation is getting blamed for the crisis. It is complete nonsense. The Bank of England is undermining the Tory government, not popular unrest. The Tories have no reason to care about public opinion. They do care about elite opinion.

That is the real source of the crisis that is slowly spreading in the West. In theory, government exists to exercise the will of the people. The “general will” is defined though the democratic process. The parties compete for support by offering up policies to address the issues the voters think are important. The Tories are in power because they supported Brexit and they implied they would do something about the problems that naturally stem from post-national cosmopolitan globalism.

There was never any chance of this happening because the people who actually run Britain never wanted those things. Those people are not subject to elections and have no concern for public opinion. That is the cause of the crisis. The political process and its results lie between public opinion and elite opinion. The two sides are natural opposites that operate like the jaws of a vice. As they close, the political process is squeezed until it eventually bursts.

The fact is the West has reached a point where we cannot have both an avaricious ruling elite and a prosperous middleclass. Either the elites are brought to heel and are subject to the political process or the middleclass collapses. The new world order is an effort to consolidate power and impoverish the population. Populism and various forms of nationalism are middleclass efforts to fight back against elites. The West is now entering the survival stage of liberal democracy.

It is tempting to think that numbers matter and the people will eventually win out and bring their elites under control. Covid should disabuse anyone of that notion, as it is clear that most people would rather die than speak out against the most humiliating abuses of the elites. If you can make people wear their underwear around their heads, you can make them do anything. Of course, an elite willing to mutilate children is never going to be susceptible to appeals to their humanity.

On the other hand, no one was really at risk during Covid. People got sick but people always get stick from something. Covid policies did not put the general wellbeing in danger, at least not right away. When people are worried about paying their rent or keeping the doors of their business open, they stop worrying so much about offending the sensibilities of rich people. Western people seem to accept no limits on their humiliation, but maybe there is a limit.

Regardless, the West is clearly entering a crisis phase. Unlike past crises in Greece, Spain or Italy, this one is occurring in the heart of the West. People expect political turmoil in Italy, but not in Britain. People expect the Spanish economy to be on the edge of the abyss, but not the German economy. Washington is supposed to be the same regardless of the party in power. This crisis is in the core of what made the post-Cold War order possible. Soon, all of it will be up for debate.

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Surf & Turf

Posted on October 18, 2022 by thezman

Since ancient times, the great civilizations have been divided into two distinct categories, land powers and sea powers. The best example is the rivalry between Athens and Sparta that culminated in the Peloponnesian wars. The Peloponnesian League was led by Sparta, the dominant land power. The Delian League was led by Athens, the dominant sea power. The great ancient conflict still casts a shadow over the West because the dynamic is still with us.

To be a great sea power requires different human capital than what is required of a land power, which makes them cultural opposites. As a result, they look at war differently and they fight their wars for different reasons. Sea powers tend to be driven by profit while land powers tend to be driven by cultural forces. Culture and economics play a role for both, but the priorities tend to be reversed. The sea power is moved to act by money while the land power is moved by cultural issues.

The Athenians were arguably the first financial empire. They built their power through shrewd business relations with the other city-states. The alliances that were established to fight the Persians quickly became a business for Athens. They provided security while their “allies” provided money and men for the ships. Their aggression toward the other city-states was driven by opportunities for trade and profit. The Athenian empire was as much about business as Athenian culture.

The Spartans, on the other hand, were not driven by profit. Their willingness to join the rest of Greece against the Persians was purely in defense. When the Athenians wanted to take the fight to the Persians after the Greeks had successfully driven the Persians back across the sea, the Spartans were not interested. Their eventual war with the Athenians was purely defensive from their point of view. It is probably why they chose not to obliterate Athens after they won the war.

We see the same dynamic today. The Global American Empire is the new Delian League, spreading democracy to the world at gun point. The Russian Federation is the new Peloponnesian League. The Cold War was often cast the same way, but it did not work as an analogy. The communists were just as obsessed with spreading their form of utopian politics as the West. This time it works as the Russians are at war with an ideological and financial empire.

The clash of cultures is clear. The GAE just assumed the Russians would do what the GAE always does in war, which is systematically destroy the civilization of the opposing culture with air power. The West is still puzzled as to why the Russians never unleashed shock and awe at the start of the war. Further, the West concluded that the incremental approach was due to a lack of resources. The GAE is a sea power so it thinks like a sea power and fights like one as well.

The Russian Federation is a land power, so putting on a big symbolic light show to start a war makes no sense to them. Sea powers move like the sea, while land powers move like the land, slowly and incrementally. This is why the Russians had not bothered to put together a public relations campaign for the West. They saw no point in it as their purpose was to force the Ukrainians to submit. That happens at the bargaining table and on the battlefield, not on Twitter.

Another contrast in the two sides is in the weapons. The Russian have the best air defenses in the world. They have the best artillery in the world. The GAE has the best air force in the world and the best navy in the world. This contrast is due to the assumptions of both sides. The Russians assume their great wars will be defensive while the GAE assumes its great wars will be offensive. The two contrasting worldviews results in two entirely different military postures.

This contrast in warfighting is turning up in the weapons. Land powers assume long wars of attrition so they plan accordingly. That means squeezing the maximum from the resources available. The Russians are famous for making cheap, reliable weapons that can be used by anyone. The Kalashnikov is the prime example. The new drones the Russians are now using follow the same pattern. They are cheap, easy to operate and extremely effective against enemy targets.

Sea powers have to assume short wars. You can only keep a fleet at sea for so long so you have to inflict maximum damage up front. A naval battle is not going to last months like a land battle, so you need to prepare for the short haul. In the old days, ships were expensive, complex weapons. Today, the jet fighter is the cutting edge of technology and human organization. All of America’s best weapons are complex systems that require lots of training to utilize.

The flip side of the time preference aspect is that sea powers can take a loss and bounce back quickly, while land powers take time to recover. The GAE suffered a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, but quickly shook it off. The loss in Vietnam stung for a few years, but then the war machine was back in business. In contrast, the Russians needed decades to overcome the failure in Afghanistan. It has only been in the last decade that they have moved past it.

What that means for the Ukraine is that barring a collapse of the EU or the global financial system, the GAE will shake of this failure too. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be ignored and the GAE will turn its sights to some new opponent. Land powers must always be on defense, because it is their nature. Sea power must always be on offense, because it is their nature. That means when one war ends a new war must start, regardless of how the prior war ended.

Dr. Strange Biden

Posted on October 17, 2022 by thezman

Note: In case you missed it, the long awaited release of my talk with Greg Hood of American Renaissance has finally arrived. You can listen to it here. The Monday Taki post is up and the topic is clowns. Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door along with other postings. SubscribeStar and Substack.

Is the Biden administration planning to use tactical nuclear weapons against the Russians in defense of Ukraine? It should be unthinkable but we live in an age in which the most offensive and absurd is celebrated, so we can no longer assume anything, no matter how monstrous, is beyond the pale. The bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines was an outlandish act of provocation, so we cannot assume there is anyone in the admiration on the side of restraint.

The first clue that the Biden people are talking about the use of nuclear weapons is their endless talking about the use of nuclear weapons. For months they have been talking about it, in the context of the Russians threatening to use nukes. The trouble is, the Russians have never threatened to use nuclear weapons. Western media keeps making this claim, but an examination of the record shows that Russian officials have repeatedly said the exact opposite.

It is a well known aspect of regime psychology to project what they are doing or plotting onto some enemy of the regime. In 2016 we got the Russian collusion hoax in which Trump was accused of plotting with foreigners to rig the election. What we eventually learned is that it was the regime that was working with foreign intelligence services to not only rig the election but undermine the Trump administration. The opposite rule is an iron law of understanding regime behavior.

There is also the fact that Russian nuclear doctrine does not include tactical use of nuclear weapons in the battlefield. They have tactical nuclear weapons, but Russian nuclear doctrine has always been rooted in deterrence. Their nuclear arsenal is designed as a deterrent against any use of nuclear weapons. In the Cold War they took mutually assured destruction seriously. It is the West that has the weapons and doctrine for the limited nuclear war scenario.

Recent actions in the Ukraine make clear that the Russian plan is to rely on conventional forces to finish off the Ukrainian army. Despite Covid-like narratives in Western media, the Ukrainians have not been winning. Their army has been slowly and methodically depleted. This next phase aimed at making it more difficult for Ukraine to function at all will be followed by fresh offensives. This time there will be a quarter million fresh Russian troops, rather than militias.

It is clear that the Russians see a path to victory using their conventional army and the facts on the ground support that view. The Ukrainians are acknowledging this, which is why Zelensky has been sounding the alarm in calls to Western media. The point is, there is no reason to think the Russians are even thinking about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but the Biden administration keeps talking about it as if it is something they think about all the time.

There is another bit of projection at work. The West has said from the start that Putin cannot afford to change course in Ukraine. Even while the Russians were negotiating with the Ukrainians at the start of the war, the claim from the Biden administration was that Putin had no reverse gear. Again, the opposite rule seems to be at work here as the Biden administration has repeatedly said that they will never make a deal with Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Further, the Biden administration has been repeatedly asked about the limits on supporting Ukraine and the answer is there are no limits. Hundreds of billions have been spent on this project already. Biden was given a blank check to send weapons, contractors and support. The administration has repeatedly said that they are willing to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. In other words, the only option they will accept is the total defeat of Russia.

This leaves the administration little room to maneuver. If their goal in this war is the total defeat of Russia and they will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to accomplish it, then it is the regime that has no reverse gear. If the fortunes of Ukraine continue on the current path, Zelensky will be faced with surrender or abdication. The West is quickly approaching a crossroads with Ukraine. Do they continue to throw good money after bad or do they find some other option?

As it stands, there are three options. One is to strike a deal with the Russians, which will be on their terms as far as Ukraine is concerned. The second is to abandon Ukraine entirely and let the Russians sort it out after their victory. The third is some sort of game changer that resets the war in favor of the West. Something like a small nuclear bomb smuggled into the Crimea could be such an answer. After all, the West did smuggle a truck bomb onto the Kerch bridge.

When you reduce it all down, the West has given itself just three options, nuclear war, forever war and capitulation. If the third option is off the table and the second option is failing, then the nuclear option is what we have left. Perhaps the reason Joe Biden keeps babbling about nuclear Armageddon is that the people running this war keep talking about using nuclear weapons in his presence. Past regime practice suggests this it at least a possibility.

From the perspective of the people running this war, the nuclear option may make more sense now than a year ago. They have poured massive amounts of arms into Ukraine and launched an unprecedented economic war on Russia. The response from the Russians has been pretty much nothing. Then you have the assassination of Dugin’s daughter, the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines and the bombing of the Kerch bridge in the Crimea. Russia did nothing in response.

The regime may look at this and conclude they can roll the dice with a tactical nuke into the Russian lines or maybe aimed at the Black Sea fleet. Maybe this would be another red line that was not a red line after all. Alternatively, the use of a nuke would cause the Russians to mobilize their nuclear arsenal and that would be the pretext for a first strike on Russia by the West. This is a well known tactic of the West. They cry out in pain as they strike and use that as a reason to strike again.

Again, it sounds insane, but giving the government the right to mutilate children in the name of transgenderism is just as insane. A regime that is willing to torture children is not going to draw the line at launching nukes. Just as they can spin tales about the ghost of Kiev, they can create a scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons only kills Russians and Europeans. After all, that would then be a tremendous opportunity to build back better and begin the post-post-Cold War era.

Never Trust A Neocon

Posted on October 11, 2022 by thezman

One of the great tricks of the neoconservatives was to reshape opposition to radical causes into support for their own radical projects. In the early days, this allowed normal people to strongly oppose limits on corporate power, in the name of fighting the communist threat from the Soviets. Alternatively, working class people could support the military industrial complex as their patriotic duty. Their own interests and genuine opposition to the Left was always secondary.

After the Cold War, this game rapidly evolved so that so-called conservatives supported a massive expansion of government, as well as a massive expansion of foreign policy entanglements, all in the name of freedom. Most conservative people assumed the end of the Cold War meant America could go back to being a normal country again, but those feelings were quickly channeled into new causes. The old tricksters were up to their old tricks, turning virtues into vices.

This is why conservatism never conserved anything. In the Reagan years, the conservatives were too busy fighting the Soviets to roll back the cultural revolution or clean up the welfare state. In the Bush years they were too busy spreading freedom and smart bombs to address domestic concerns. Despite promising to promote conservative causes, conservatives instead found some war to fight. Meanwhile, the bad guys got to run riot in the culture.

You can see the same game emerging with the war against Russia. The deception here is another version of the big lie. This time the villain is Putin, who for no reason at all, attacked Ukraine. All that opposition to perverts in sundresses and bigots spewing antiwhite propaganda in the classroom is being channeled into opposing Putin in order to defend our democracy. Normal people are supposed to be mad at Putin rather than the sorry state of their own country and its leaders.

You see how this works in this Victor Davis Hanson post. The goal of the post is to divert opposition to the regime’s foreign policy into a Republican brand of the same policies toward Russia. You see, the reason that dude in a dress is chasing your daughter around the classroom is Obama was soft on Russia. Biden is following the same policies, which is why things are so bad. He uses some form the word “appeasement” nine times, because, you know.

Of course, the column is also an attempt to whitewash the neoconservative involvement in the current crisis. You see, it is not the people who started this war with Russia who are to blame for the fallout. No, it is some guy off stage who is turned into the Emmanuel Goldstein of this show. He is the one who set the wheels in motion and all the people currently running foreign policy, all members of the same Trotsky cult, coincidentally enough, are just victims like you.

The truth is this war has its roots much further back than Obama. If you want to point to an incident as a starting place, it would be American involvement in the Balkan war during the Clinton years. American support for Kosovo against Serbia was the start of a new conflict with Russia. At the time, it was viewed in Moscow as a deliberate offense to the Russians. In the years that followed, this affair has become a warning for the Russians about what Washington plans for them.

There are other capers that could be a starting point. Washington supporting Georgia against South Ossetia in the Bush years is a good example. The neocons wanted to add Georgia to NATO. The Russians made clear that they saw this as a provocation, as well as another broken promise. Washington had promised Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand to the Russian border. In other words, the neocons have been at this for a long time.

Of course, one does not have to go back that far to see the grimy fingerprints of the Trotskyites in the current crisis. Victoria Nuland, who is running Russia policy for Biden, was the person running Ukraine policy for Obama. She was right there on the ground when Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government in 2014. She is pals with Ihor Kolomoyskyi, the Ukrainian oligarch who backed Zelensky. The point is this is another neocon war that runs against American interests.

It also needs to be pointed out that Hanson supported all of the neocon misadventures going back to the Clinton years. He wanted Clinton to take an even tougher stance in the Balkan conflict. You will note that the neocons used the same language against Clinton as they are using now against Biden. He was not tough enough against this new Hitler from the hinterlands. Hanson, of course, supported the Bush wars. He also supported the Georgia – South Ossetia caper.

The point of Hanson’s post is to make sure no one turns over any of these rocks with regards to the neocons and Russia policy. Instead, the game is to channel general opposition to the Biden administration into an even more deranged hatred of Russia and Vladimir Putin. All your troubles will go away conservatives, if you just hate the Russians more and vote harder this November. It is a clever trick that works on a gullible but trusting population.

This is why foreign policy must become a litmus test. There are no American interests in the Ukraine, South Ossetia or Tajikistan. Not only does meddling in these areas invite trouble, but it also diverts attention from important matters. Building superhighways in Afghanistan did not shorten a single commute in America. “Standing with Ukraine” does not stop the flood of invaders over the southern border. What these foreign adventures do is divert attention from America’s real problems.

Given that all of these foreign escapades over the last thirty years trace back to the same Trotsky cult, the real litmus test is neoconservatism. Back before most people were born, they hollowed out conservatism and have used to as a Trojan horse to trick decent people into supporting that which is against their interests. A genuine conservative policy with regards to Russia would oppose Biden for meddling in the affairs of Russia, not demand more meddling.

Two Wars, Two Visions

Posted on October 10, 2022 by thezman

Notes: The Monday Taki post is up. This week is a post about the mistakes Russia has made in the war thus far. Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door, covering some news items of the day. SubscribeStar and Substack.

All wars have their unique character, but the war in the Ukraine is probably one of the strangest in the history of the West. Its strangeness is due to the two sides operating from a different set of facts and a different framework for those facts. It is as if the two sides are fighting entirely different wars. In point of fact, the two sides are fighting different wars, despite doing so on a common battlefield. That reality is about to become clearer as the war moves into winter.

The first main difference in the war is that the Russians are fighting it from a highly legalistic and bureaucratic perspective. The West does not seem to grasp this and keeps treating it like a cartoonish war of conquest. They frame Putin as a version of Hitler, who is now a cartoon villain in the Western imagination. Putin is attacking Ukraine for no reason at all and has no real plan other than war. It is just some irrational land grab, like when Hitler conquered Poland¹.

In reality the Russians have conducted this war like a group of lawyers engaged in complex civil litigation. They spend a lot of time on legalistic points like the official legal status of the disputed territory. Before the start of the war, the Russians put a lot of time into legally recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk as independent territories. The ongoing attacks on these areas by Ukraine was the legal pretext for the Special Military Operation that started eight months ago.

This legalistic mindset is turning up in the response to the terrorist attack on the Kerch bridge in the Crimea. The facts were quickly established. Ukraine took credit for the attack and promised more. Once the Russian investigators confirmed the essentials of the attack, that it was terrorism and sponsored by Ukraine, the Russians could then conduct anti-terrorism activity. Again, this an important legal distinction for the Russians, as it permits specific activities.

Russia launched one hundred missiles at key Ukrainian facilities overnight as a response to the attack and as a warning. Much of the internet is down in Ukraine and parts of various cities are without power and water. You see, Russia can legally attack civilian infrastructure in response to terror attacks. The warning here is that if the terrorism continues, the Russians have the legal right to take out all of Ukraine’s power, water and communications systems.

Contrast this with how the West is fighting the war. At the start, Western governments seized the property of Russian companies and individuals. There was no court case or legal arguments about it. They just did it. They filled Western media with gleeful stories about stealing the yachts of Russian oligarchs. The owner of the Chelsea football club was forced to sell the team. Germany seized the assets of Gazprom, the Russian energy firm that supplies its natural gas.

Then you have the sanctions war. Much of what has been imposed on Russia has been done outside the normal channels. The whole point of the New World Order is that it is a rules based world and those rules are administered though global entities like the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. The point of these groups is to hash out difference between countries. All of those were bypassed. Even the legislatures of the respective countries were bypassed.

When you put the two ways of waging the war side-by-side, you get a picture that is the opposite of what is presented. The one side is bogging itself down in paperwork and legalism while the other side is cutting through the red tape and the rule of law to implement the latest polices. In a way, it is like this war is being waged between the bureaucracy of the post office and the leadership of the Mafia. It is a war between two entirely alien ways of viewing the world.

Another place you see the contrast is in public relations. The Russians have abandoned the field when it comes to the meme war. They have invested no effort in winning the daily news cycle or spinning events into clever narratives. Instead, they provide daily updates on the granular details of the war. If you care about how many flat tires were fixed by Russian forces every day, the Ministry of Defense is your source. Their reports are a dry accounting of the basic facts.

On the other hand, the Western side of the war is a carnival of creative stories that are splashed across Western media. The occupation of abandoned territory in the north was treated like the Battle of the Bulge. The terror attack on the Kerch bridge was a great blow to the Russian army. Once it was clear the bridge was not destroyed and was back in service, it was off to the next narrative. The West has been waging this war on the internet as if it is actually taking place there.

Probably the biggest difference between the two sides is how they explain their respective involvement in the war. The Russians see it as a defense of the Russian people and the Russian homeland. The people in the Donbas are Russians and therefore must be defended by Russia. Further, Western activity in Ukraine is portrayed as part of a larger American effort to destroy Russia. The Russian people are once again being called upon to defend the motherland.

In the West, the war is an abstract thing. It is a defense of democracy, which is a thing no one bothers to explain. In fact, if you ask what it means you get shouted down as a threat to our democracy. Like so much of what has happened in the West over the last three decades, this war is a moral signifier. If you support it, you are a good person, but if you have doubts, it means you are a bad person. Even thinking about why this is true is a sign you may be a bad person.

All wars have consequences but it is never easy to see what they are until they finally arrive, usually long after the fighting has ended. No one at the end of the Great War imagined the events of the 1930’s. In this case, the West is sure that what lies ahead is their New World Order. The Russians think what lies ahead is a multipolar world of which they are an important part. Two powers, fighting two wars with two visions of what comes next and both cannot be right.

¹We know. Everyone knows.

The Energy War

Posted on October 6, 2022 by thezman

The golden rule states that the man with the gold makes the rules. In this age, gold is energy in its various forms. The world as we understand it runs on electricity, which comes from fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. If you happen to sit upon a lot of these things, you get to be important and have a lot of money. If you do not have these things, then you are dependent upon others for your welfare. There simply is no way to have a modern society without cheap energy.

In case the West forgot this reality, OPEC+ sent a gentle reminder this week by committing to a large cut in production. Over the next two months they will reduce supplies of crude to the market by two million barrels per day. The stated reason is to bring market prices back in line with the target of $100 per barrel. The unstated reason was to remind Washington that they are not the only voice in the room. The Saudis were sending a message to Washington.

Since Biden took office, there has been a sharp decline in relations with Saudi Arabia, due, in part, to Biden’s reckless language regarding the Khashoggi affair. He was the CIA operative pretending to be a Washington Post reporter. The Saudis decided to have him chopped up at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. This became a major scandal, as the events were leaked to the press, most likely by Washington. Biden has called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a murderer.

There are also the recent efforts by the Biden administration to manipulate the energy markets through various means. It is clear that the administration has been faking gasoline demand numbers to suppress the futures market. Then there was the promise to buy 200 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia at $80 a barrel in exchange for OPEC not cutting production. The Biden admin has reneged on that deal. The Saudis have good reason to not want to play ball with Team Biden.

The larger issue for the Saudis and every other country outside the collective West is the issue of regime change, which has become a fetish for Washington. MBS looks at Biden’s reckless words regarding the Khashoggi affair and sees it as a potential first step on the regime change escalator. Whenever Washington decides they want to blow up a country, they anathematize the leader, by claiming he is in violation of the moral consensus and thus fair game.

The Saudis have become closer with the Russian over the last year and the main driver is the regime change issue. The OPEC countries, Russia, China and even India are coming to understand that Washington sees them as lackeys. As long as they do what they are told they can keep some of their stuff but get out of line and Washington will install someone new. The willingness of Washington to try regime change on a nuclear power says that no one is safe from this policy.

Of course, the Russians are a member of OPEC+ and they have their reasons for supporting a production cut. The EU is still plotting an oil price cap on Russian oil, which is mostly a face saving measure. They will set the cap at a price well above what Russia will find acceptable, so they can act tough while importing as much Russian oil as they can handle. This announcement by OPEC will make sure that the Europeans do not get creative with their math.

There is something else here. It is the first sign in the Middle East that the major players are thinking about a post-America world. The Saudi – Russia relationship has grown stronger over the last year to the point where the Saudis have been circulating a Ukraine peace plan in Europe. They have agreed to join BRIC’s, which is the political alliance formed around Brazil, Russia, India and China. Interestingly, Iran has also said they wish to join, despite their relationship with the Saudis.

Some observers suggest that Russia is playing peacemaker between Iran and the Saudis, with China and India supporting the effort. Getting these two regional rivals on the same team would be a sea change in regional politics. It is the sort of thinking that imagines a world where America is not a major force. It is also the sort of thinking that comes when all involved fear the same enemy. The sign outside their clubhouse will read, “No Regime Change Allowed.”

All of this is a reminder that while ideology plays a huge role in the current crisis, it is energy that has been the driving force. America’s presence in the Middle East has always been premised on the claim they are guarding the oil supply. The long war on Iran has been as much about keeping the Persians out of the energy markets as it has been about containing Islamic radicalism. The Iranians will not play ball with the West over energy, so they must be isolated.

This brings us back to the golden rule. Washington’s power lies solely in the power of the dollar, which is pegged to energy. The real reserve currency of the world is the BTU and the dollar is the physical manifestation of it. The war on Russia, like the war on Iran, is as much about protecting the control of energy as it is ideology. What we are seeing is that the countries with vast energy wealth are starting to figure out that they are better off as partners rather than as competitors.

Where all of this leads is hard to know. Washington is sure they can win a war of attrition against Russia, a people famous for their endurance. A lot will depend upon how much suffering Western Europe is willing to absorb. Washington is willing to fight the war in Ukraine to the last Ukrainian. Maybe they are willing to fight the energy war to the last European. As winter approaches, we will soon learn who is better equipped to survive the first energy war of the 21st century.

A Medieval Desire For Revenge

Posted on October 3, 2022 by thezman

Notes: The Monday Taki post is up. This week is a post about the natural coercion that takes place in any democratic system. Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door, covering some news items of the day. SubscribeStar and Substack.

Toward the end of the Second World War, the “Allies”, which by this point was a polite fiction, were thinking about what comes after the war. The three big powers of Europe, France, Italy and Germany, were in ruins. The British were bankrupt. Then you had the Russians, who were clearly looking past the war. The big item on the agenda was what to do about the Germans. Within living memory, they had been blamed for two monstrous wars that crippled the West.

United States Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau produced a plan in 1944 that called for the annihilation of Germany as a country. The central argument was that there was something defective about German people that causes them for no reason at all to do the things they were doing. The only solution was to make it so these people could never do those things again. Morgenthau did not blame politics or ideology for the wars, but the German character.

The plan called for the de-industrialization of Germany. This would have been done by partitioning Germany into various bits. Some portion would go to Poland, while another portion would go to France. The Ruhr Area, the main industrial area of Germany at the time, would be stripped and occupied. What remained of Germany would be divided into two areas with no industry. Basically, the country known as German would cease to exist and its people would soon follow.

That last part is key. Even after it was made clear to Morgenthau and his supporters that his plan would result in wide-scale starvation, he pressed forward. Optimistic analysis at the time said that 40% of Germans would starve to death if the Morgenthau plan was implemented. Of course, the number would be much higher due to the inevitable revolts by the Germans, which would be met with force. The goal of the Morgenthau was the genocide of the German people.

From the point of view of this age, it sounds like madness, but war does funny things to people, especially long wars. The Russians had lost tens of millions of people fighting the Germans, so left to their own sensibilities at the time, they probably would have exterminated most of the Germans and reduced the country to rubble. What was left would have become a slave state in the Soviet Union. Of course, Morgenthau had similar motivations for destroying Germany.

The chief supporter of the Morgenthau plan in Britain was Churchill’s assistant Frederick Alexander Lindemann, 1st Viscount Cherwell. Besides having a great name, Lord Cherwell was described as having “a medieval desire for revenge” not just on Germans but on anyone he disliked. Naturally, the Morgenthau plan for Germany tickled his natural desire to see opponents suffer. This bit of trivial reinforces the fact that the plan was purely retributive, rather than remedial.

The Morgenthau plan has a curious history. It was published in the closing days of the war, but it became a rallying point for the Germans. All of sudden, the very real prospect of extinction was on the table. Allied commanders said the plan had made their job much more difficult. After the war, there was an effort to memory hole the idea because of the Cold War. Recently the plan has gained attention because it draws attention to certain subjects that are bad for current narratives.

Interestingly, the plan was quickly deemed impractical by the people who would be charged with implementing it. This happened before anyone stopped to consider the morality of committing genocide on the Germans. Genocide is the right word, as that includes erasing the culture of a people. Despite the obvious impossibility of the plan, the backers never gave up on it. It was only the clever machinations of people around Roosevelt and Churchill that prevented the genocide.

Today it would be nothing more than a side note to the history of the war, but it seems as if that old “medieval desire for revenge” still casts a shadow. The events in modern Europe look like an updated version of the Morgenthau plan. The Germans are slowly being reduced to peonage by Anglo-American policy. The pretext this time is not fear of German militarism, but fear of German independence. Ukraine policy makes sense when the goal is the destruction of Germany.

That is what is on tap unless something changes. German industry cannot survive if energy conditions persist much longer. Their primary advantage in Europe and the world has been easy access to cheap energy. The energy crisis not only deprives them of cheap energy but may deprive them of energy. The Germans are now facing the prospect of blackouts and periodic shutdowns due to gas shortages. This is just the start of what could be a long crisis.

Then there is the knock-on effect. Energy is not just about making things like cars and chemicals, but about growing food. All of Western Europe will be facing a serious fertilizer crisis in 2023. Germany has relied on imports for all of its commercial fertilizer, so cuts in those imports will wipe out German food production. A country that cannot make anything, heat its homes or feed itself looks a lot like what the people behind the Morgenthau plan had in mind eighty years ago.

Of course, there is another element to this. The first Secretary General of NATO was Brit named Hastings Lionel Ismay, also known as First Baron Ismay. He is credited with having said the purpose of NATO was “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” In retrospect, the sole purpose may have been to keep Germany down. Germany is the key to Russian involvement in Europe, so controlling Germany is a way to control Russia.

That is what we see in the current crisis. Washington blew up those gas lines because those gas lines primarily served the Germans. It allowed them to do business with Russia and could perhaps allow the Germans to be an honest broker in the war between Washington and Moscow. It speaks to that “medieval desire for revenge” that Washington would rather risk a nuclear war with Russia than let the ancient enemy get even a hint of independence and self-respect.

Perhaps the way to read this crisis in Europe is as the final chapter in a long story with roots into the 19th century. The cutting off of cheap energy to Germany will finally reduce the Germans to poverty. They will be dependent on Washington and the rest of Europe for survival. This may strike modern ears as insane as the original Morgenthau plan, but like that old plan, the new plan, maybe it should be called the Kagan Plan, is about a “medieval desire for revenge.”

The Next Phase Of The War

Posted on September 21, 2022 by thezman

When the Russians launched what they call a special military operation in the Ukraine, the window for a negotiated settlement was wide open. The Russians were prepared to go back to the Minsk accords and work out a deal with Ukraine. In fact, such a deal was close to happening in April, but then London, at the behest of Washington, stepped in and convinced Zelensky to end negotiations. The collective West was now fully behind Ukraine and they would accept no deal with Russia.

The Russians left open the possibility for a deal. Despite the sanctions and the flow of weapons into the Ukraine from the West, the Russians kept playing for a negotiated settlement to the conflict. The main reason is a deal signed by Zelensky would prevent future shenanigans from Washington. Liberating the disputed areas and degrading the Ukrainian military would leave open the possibility of more fighting. Ukraine would become like the Korean peninsula.

Yesterday the door for a negotiated settlement has closed completely. In an address to the nation, Putin announced that Russia would accept the results of the referendums planned in the Donbas. When these areas vote to join the Russian Federation, they will become sovereign Russian territory. The second thing he announced is the call up of roughly 300,000 reservists to defend Russian lands in the Donbas. An attack on Donetsk or Luhansk is now an attack on Russia.

This change will be lost in the Western media because they are assigned the task of selling the Western war on Russia. They describe Russia as a large outdoor gas station run by vodka-swilling peasants. Putin is described as a tyrant with absolute and undisputed control of the country. This is complete nonsense, but most of what appears in the Western media is nonsense. They make the old communist propaganda organs look like objective observers.

Reality in Russia is quite different. For starters, Putin is not a dictator and he has to worry about his constituents. Like every other country, Russia is ruled by a coalition of forces that have real power. Putin leads this coalition and he has to respect the interests of the coalition members. Russia is also a bureaucratic country. Things are done a certain way, through certain processes. Russians like rules and the Russian bureaucracy is nothing if not a playground for those who love rules.

The other important thing about Russia is that Putin is the most dovish, pro-Western voice in the ruling coalition. There were voices calling for military action in the Ukraine going back to the 2014 coup that toppled the Ukrainian government. There are voices today that want full mobilization and total war on the Ukraine. Putin has preferred to work the diplomatic angle. He saw signed deals with the West as a way to hold the collective West to their commitments.

In announcing the next phase of the war, Putin is signaling that he has moved in the direction of the hawks. This means the rules of engagement that up to now have prevented the Russian military from targeting civilian infrastructure and command centers have been removed. That means damns, power plants, water treatment plants and other essential structures will be attacked. It also means the Russian army can now take the lead in fighting the Ukrainians.

This is another thing lost in the Western media. The rules the Russians placed on themselves in this fight were to limit contact between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army. This means the militias did the bulk of the fighting with air and artillery support from the Russians. Private military contractors were also brought in to assist the militias with weapons and logistics. That changes now. The Russian military will take the lead in the war going forward.

Presumably, the Ukrainians will not respect the referendums and keep attacking these areas, which means Russia will now be at war with Ukraine. This may sound like a distinction without a difference, but it is a big change. From the Russian perspective, they are following international law. The Western powers supporting Ukraine are now parties to the war between Russia and Ukraine. In other words, it is no longer a proxy war but a direct conflict between West and East.

What does that mean? For starters, the Russians can now cut off all energy supplies to NATO countries and be on firm legal ground. They can also point to Kosovo as a precedent for their actions. Kosovo elected to break away from Serbia. The West recognized it and then bombed Serbia. Putin has mentioned this precedent in the past and will no doubt point to it after the referendum. The point is to show the rest of the world that the Russians are operating by the rules.

That is another piece of the puzzle. Prior to this announcement, Putin has been meeting with his counterparts in Asia. It is clear that China and India are onboard with what the Russians are doing. That is the point of these self-imposed rules. It makes the point to other countries that one side is following the rules and the other side is not. If you are worried about being regime changed, this is important. Every leader outside the collective West is now worried about regime change.

All wars have a moral component. No one wants to see themselves as the bad guy, so the parties to a conflict seek to claim the moral high ground. This is what the Russians have been doing since the war started. These limitations they have placed on themselves were about establishing their moral position. This next phase of the war was not what they wanted, but the other side left them no choice. Whether you accept that or not, the Russians accept it and that is what matters.

What all of this means is that the war has now entered a much more dangerous phase and it will only end militarily. The West is pledged to fighting until the last Ukrainian and now Russia is accepting the challenge. In addition, Russia will now make it much more difficult for Ukraine to function as a country, much less provide the necessary support for its army in the field. That also means direct targeting of Western assets in Ukraine by the Russian military.

Sadly, the only hope for a peaceful solution to the war now lies with Washington getting its wish and reaching the point of the last Ukrainian. The Russians drive up Ukrainian losses quickly over the next few months. The military loses its fighting ability and the civilian population is put under terrible stress. The combination of the two forces a settlement, despite Washington’s desire to keep fighting. In other words, the hope for peace lies in a tragedy for the Ukraine.

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