The End of Israel

Posted on August 7, 2024 by thezman

One of the myths of the 20th century that is slowly starting to wither away is the one about Israel just striving to exist. Since the wars of the 1960’s and 1970’s, the narrative has been that Israel is this plucky democracy fighting for its existence in the midst of savage not-democracies. The line, “Israel has a right to exist” has been the company slogan for Israel Inc. for close to fifty years now. Over the last year this official narrative, like so many others, has started to collapse.

It is clear at this point that Israel is not the victim of aggression, but the primary instigator of conflict in the region. The assassination of the Gaza leader in Tehran, on its face, is an unjustified act of war. Ismail Haniyeh was not just the lead negotiator for Gaza, but the most dovish of the Palestinian leaders with regards to making a deal with the Israeli government. The only reason to kill him was to foreclose further negotiations over Gaza and to bait the Iranians into war.

The Israelis, the Zionist and their supporters in the West will claim that there can be no peace as long as Hamas exists, so they are acting in self-defense when they assassinate the people on the other side of the peacemaking table. They also argue that there can be no peace as long as Iran exists as an Iranian state, so they are acting in self-defense when they attack Iran. Currently, they are arguing for Israel to pre-emptively attack Iran before Iran retaliates.

What we are seeing is an evolution of that myth from the 20th century. The original myth was that Israel just wanted to exist and it was the Arab world that refused to acknowledge Israeli’s right to exist. All the Arabs needed to do was not make war on Israel and there would be peace in the region. Now, the narrative is that Israel must make war on the region in order to secure peace. We have gone from supporting the plucky underdog to backing the savage master.

It is similar to an observation by Christopher Caldwell regarding the programs that sprouted from the civil rights revolution. It was first argued that these programs must be supported because their beneficiaries are too weak. Now it is argued that they must be supported because they are too strong. We see this with Israel. Fifty years ago, the Washington political class supported Israel because she was weak. Now they support Israel because the Israel lobby is too strong.

The thing is though, regimes in serious trouble often go on the offensive thinking it will lead to some breakthrough or change the situation in some way. Armies that are beaten will often stage one last great offensive. Ideological regimes will crack down on dissent, like we are seeing in the West. The Israel lobby is proudly intervening in American elections, because it fears support is faltering. Israel seeks war with Iran, because is it very unstable domestically.

There is no question that the ground has shifted over the last year with regards to support for Israel in the West, particularly America. In the United States, where it matters most, unconditional support for Israel is now limited to old white conservatives, primarily located in the Bible belt. Everyone else ranges from Israel fatigue to outright hostility to Israel. The actuarial tables tell us that support for Israel among American is in a death spiral that cannot be arrested.

This coincides with the decline of the American empire, especially in the Middle East, where decades of intervention have exhausted the military and exhausted the American people’s patience with the topic. The days of the American empire dictating policy to the region are drawing to a close. This is why Israel is desperate to start a regional war with the Iranians. They think it will bring their patron back into the region, even though it is clear that this is highly unrealistic.

On the domestic side, an area that gets little attention, Israel has some profoundly serious internal divisions. This post by Alastair Crooke describes some of it. The current Israeli government is caught in a vice. One jaw is the reality of the situation with regards to Israel and the Arabs and the other jaw is that “an eschatological Right-wing cult now holds the majority in cabinet – and wields a vigilante militia ready to attack the military establishment, and the Israeli state.”

The ideological cross currents within Israel reflect the demographic collapse that has been underway for a couple of generations. The once dominant Ashkenazi Jews, these are the Jews of the diaspora, are now in steep decline largely due to their low fertility rates and the relative high fertility rates of the other groups, particularly the ultra-orthodox and the Mizrahi Jews. These are the Jews who never left the Middle East, and who hold an expansive view of greater Israel.

The result of all of this is a hyper-aggressive Israel that is seeking a big war with all of its local enemies and a hyper-aggressive Israel lobby in the United States that is aggressively interfering in elections. One result is the collapse of the old narrative where Israel is the plucky democracy in a world of antagonistic not-democracies. In its place is a new narrative where Israel is instigating the final conflagration to settle all of these outstanding issues for good.

What all of this tells us is that Israel is in deep trouble. The underlying reason for it is the country was born in war. Countries that are the creation of war tend to end in war because they must always seek war. For Israel, “normal” is the endless state of emergency, the constant fear of another attack. This dovetailed well with the diaspora fear of you know who jumping out of the history books. It has evolved to the point where Project Israel cannot exist in peace, so it must seek war.

How this ends is not clear. The geezers currently running Israel must eventually give way to a new generation, but that new generation is more war-like and vastly less sophisticated about global matters. On the other hand, the Arab world is young and increasingly sophisticated about how the world is changing. Can the Israelis figure out how to live in the new world or will they seek to take the rest of the world with them into the abyss of the dying old world?

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Regime Games

Posted on August 6, 2024 by thezman

Today is supposed to be the big day when the world learns who the regime has selected to be the running mate of kamala Harris. Last week, the Mayor of Philadelphia tweeted out that it was to be Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, but regime media ignored it. In fact, they continue to ignore the story. As of now they are “reporting” that the choice is down to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Harris is scheduled to be cackling in Philadelphia today, so would make sense if it were Shapiro, but regime media says the plan is to do the reveal game show style like they did when Biden “picked” Harris. They will stage a video of Harris calling the condemned man over Zoom, because you know strong diverse female loves to use the latest technology like a big girl. She will cackle, he will make the soy face and accept his role as the loyal aid to girl boss.

One clue is this item posted on Twitter, now stupidly called X, showing a fleet of black SUV’s at the home of the Minnesota governor. A similar thing happened at the home of J.D. Vance once he was notified. Once the pick is made, the Secret Service is dispatched to explain how things will work as far as security. It is possible that this is some sort of ruse, but that would be dumb even by Harris standards. On the other hand, she is a remarkably stupid woman.

Regardless, you can get a sense of how the regime really thinks about the race by the final three contestants. The fact that two are white men and one is a Jewish man is what everyone will notice. More important is that all three look old and therefore can be passed off as a steadying force. They did this with Obama when they picked Biden to be his running mate. The claim was that Biden was a longtime Washington insider and he would help steady the Obama ship.

Of course, Biden was both an olive branch and an insurance policy. Team Obama ruffled a lot of feathers in official Washington during the primary and they made enemies of the Clinton crime family. Adding Biden was a signal to permanent Washington that Obama was a team player. For similar reasons he made Clinton Secretary of State and turned a blind eye to her selling access. Biden was also an insurance policy, as no one could imagine him being president.

Harris is completely controlled by the regime, as they selected her for Biden and now have selected her to replace Biden. Her only base of support is the regime, so there is no need to pick a running mate for her that is regime friendly. Instead, they need someone that can make her more plausible as a candidate. That is why they obviously cast around for an old white guy. It is an admission that Harris comes off as a bumbling simpleton that could frighten many white voters.

The fact that they have settled on three unknowns is also telling. Shapiro is the only name with any recognition and that is only regional. Walz and Kelly are complete unknowns outside their respective states. Presumably all three can help win their respective states, which is interesting given that Walz is the governor of Minnesota, a state everyone thinks is safe. Trump lost there by 200,000 votes in 2020, but only by 50,000 in 2016, so maybe it is not that safe.

Another thing about these three options is that none of them have been mentioned as serious 2028 candidates. The big names like Gavin Newsom and Karen Whitmer were not interested, as they probably think they can win the nomination in 2028, even if the regime finagles Harris to a general election win. Despite the regime media campaign the last two weeks, the general consensus is that Harris is so terrible that once the action starts her balloon deflates quickly.

Of the three, Shapiro is the best option, as he brings the massive vote rigging machine to deliver the state to Harris. There are basically five states that decide the presidency at the moment. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. There is some possibility that Minnesota adds itself to the list. If we take Pennsylvania off the board that leaves the four states and a 251-to-245 electoral college score in favor of Trump, so Harris is within striking distance.

The problem with Shapiro is his biography makes clear that his primary loyalty is to his people and his people are not Americans. He volunteered to serve in the IDF, rather than the American military. Imagine him explaining this while on stage with Vance, who served his people in the Marines. A Harris – Shapiro ticket is so alien and weird that even the dullest normie will notice it. A ticket that looks like every television ad, rather than America is not a good look right now.

Kelly is probably the second-best option, mostly because he has a good biography, but otherwise he adds nothing to the ticket. He is not the most likable guy, which is not a great thing for a ticket already short on charisma. Walz is the safest choice as he has carefully cultivated the “aw shucks” hick-lib act and he is a true believer. Walz is Bernie Sanders without the grating New York personality. He is Trotsky reimagined as a character from the television series Fargo.

What all of this tells us is the regime continues to struggle keeping all of the plates spinning, so they keep dashing about creating new narratives. Week one was the “weird” nonsense and now they are going with the claim that Trump is in a panic over Harris having such a good honeymoon. Like everything else we are seeing with the regime, there is no thinking past the first move. As a result, they rush from one fire to the next, claiming victory after avoiding disaster.

The Beginning Of The End

Posted on August 5, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door on the great stone of truth I have a post about the difference between work and exercise, a post about the alienness of the Democratic ticket and the Sunday podcast. Subscribe here or here.

The Nikkei 225 opened the week by plunging 12%, its worst day since the infamous Black Monday in 1987. European markets followed, but due to their controls on the markets ever going too far down, they declined just over two percent. The American markets are expected to open down as well. As with Europe, there are controls in place to prevent the markets from sliding too far too fast. This is determined by the Plunge Protection Team who protect the bankers.

All of this got going last week when markets began to decline and then it was revealed that the world’s most bullish investor, Warren Buffet, was dumping stocks at an unprecedented rate over the last quarter. Berkshire Hathaway dumped 58% of its Apple stock, which has been viewed as a signal that Buffett thinks the American economy is headed for a recession. In lean times, the companies hardest hit are those who make frivolous items like high end mobile devices.

Even setting aside the economic issues, the market was long overdue for a correction, and they often happen around elections. When Trump left office the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 31,000. It peaked this year at around 40,000, which is roughly a thirty percent climb in three years. If one wants an example of irrational exuberance, there is a perfect example. The American stock market is a speculative bubble that was due to burst.

The speculation mainly rested on the assumption that the Federal Reserve would once again start handing out free money to its friends. The inflation reports had been manipulated to the point where the only people still worried about prices are the people buying things. The jobs reports and GDP numbers have similarly been set to look as if the economy could use a jolt of free money. The trouble is Jerome Powell is not in a rate cutting mood and has made this clear.

The other assumption has been that the American economy is fundamentally sound and all the bad stuff since Covid has been resolved. That has turned out to be wrong, as new bad stuff has emerged since Covid. The new Cold War launched against China and Russia is accelerating changes in the global economy, which is already putting downward pressure on Western economies. It seems that investors are now starting to understand that we are on the cusp of a new world order.

Of course, equities markets are supposed to reflect the general investor sentiment about the underlying economy. You buy a stock because you think the company will be better tomorrow than today. You sell the stock for the opposite reason. The markets are supposed to be about the future of the underlying economy, but that has not been true for close to forty years now. Instead, it has been about where to put all the extra cash the central bank creates in its role as global banker.

What happened to the American stock markets over the last half century is they went from being a place to bet on the economy and individual companies to a place to bet on the Global American Empire being the sole superpower. As long as the dollar remained the global currency and Washington controlled the rules of the global economy, there was only one bet to make. Everyone did the rational think and bet on this not changing, so over time the line went up at a steady pace.

The last two years have revealed this to be old thinking. The sanctions war against Russia has been a disaster for the empire. The Russian economy has outpaced Western economies during this time. Similarly, BRICS, which was just a worthless acronym, has now become a legitimate alternative to the Western model. Their alternative to SWIFT, the default banking transaction system, is slowly emerging as a viable and perhaps superior option for the rest of the world.

The main reason for this is the chaos at the top of the imperial order. While the endless political drama out of Washington entertains the people of the West, to those outside it looks like chaos and instability. The world’s largest economies have no idea who is in charge of imperial policy, as Joe Biden is clearly a vegetable. Further, Washington is not on speaking terms with the two most important countries at the moment. They have Russia and Iran on mute.

What we may be about to see is the canary in the coal mine fall off his perch, thus signaling the great reordering. Western economies evolved over the last half century on the assumption that Washington would control the global money supply. Over the last thirty years the assumption has been that the days of national economies were over, as all economies would be integrated. The rules based global economy using the dollar would be run from the imperial capital.

That is not going to be the future. This presents a massive problem for the West, as industrial policy, economic policy, government policy and demographic policy has all been based on the assumption that the Western managerial elite would sit atop this global system like Mustapha Mond, the world controller in Aldous Huxley’s novel Brave New World. Of course, that is the reason the dream is unraveling, as Mustapha Mond was both corrupt and cynical.

As is usually the case, the great transition will take time. It took forty years for the West to evolve down this cul-de-sac. It will take time for the world to adapt to the decline of the West and for the West to regain itself. The collapse of the Soviet system was followed by two decades of disorder. The difference is the West has further to fall, as the Russians were already poor. Americans are about to get poor because they no longer deserve to be otherwise.

Lessons From VDare

Posted on August 2, 2024 by thezman

The show is a bit rambling today as I was pressed for time due to the day job, but the topic is a good one. Failure is always a better teacher than success, so the failure of VDare has some good lessons for us. I say failure in that it lost the fight with the oogily-googily people in the state of New York. It had a twenty-five-year run and helped make immigration a central issue.

Probably the most important lesson to come out of the VDare story is that the old America that operated by rules is gone. If you want to join the fight, the first thing you need to understand is we no longer live in a rules-based society. The bad guys talk about the rules, but that is because they change the rules to fit their needs. They want you to follow their rules, while they do what they want.

That is probably the biggest psychological barrier for people. You see it with the young guys who think they are the forefront of radical. In reality they are Zoomer-Boomers, young guys who think they can roll back the clock to the time when the people they criticize were their age. They still think they can vote their way out of this mess and back to the old America of their grandparents.

That America is gone and it is never coming back. You see that with VDare. The people who lawfared them out of existence had no place in old America, other than sweeping floors, but in new America they set the rules. Once you reach the point where such people have access to power, the rules-based society is finished. In fact, society is finished and waiting for the death blow.

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This Week’s Show

Contents

Introduction
Address Your Priors
The Best Ability
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The Bad Guys
Reform Ain’t Possible
Strength & Weakness
You Will Get No Help
Be Realistic
Guerillas

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The Eighth Decade Curse

Posted on August 1, 2024 by thezman

Israel’s efforts to start a regional war in the Middle East took a big step forward when they murdered a Hamas official in Tehran and another in Beirut. The murder of Fuad Shukr in Lebanon is something the Israelis have been doing for a long time, but the missile attack killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is both a clear violation of international law and a provocative escalation. Taken together it suggests that the Israelis want a war with Iran and are doing everything they can to provoke it.

The puzzle is why are they are doing this, especially now when it is clear that Washington is in turmoil and the American empire is stretched thin. Joe Biden is at best a caretaker at the moment. Netanyahu met with him last week, so he must know that Biden is a vegetable. He also has to know that it is not clear who will be in the White House six months from now. The only thing certain is it will be a new team running foreign policy, regardless of the results.

It may be that Netanyahu calculates that if the next administration inherits a regional war in the Middle East, they will have little choice but to continue whatever policy they inherit, so it is best to get everything in place now. It is not as if the Israelis do not have control of both parties. The neocons may think Trump wins the election, so leaving him with a regional war will cripple his term before it gets started. As a result, they are telling the Israelis to start the war.

Another theory floating around is that the Israelis have determined that Iran does not want a war right now, so their response to these moves will be limited. The Israelis can literally get away with murder, as long as the people they are targeting are not Iranian officials or important Iranian citizens. The two people they just murdered have been on their kill list for a long time. Targeted assassinations have always been a part of the Israeli toolkit, despite the civilized world’s protests.

Along the same lines, the Israelis may be looking at the way things are shaping up in the neighborhood and think they have to flip over the board with a war. Russia and Iran have close ties. China is now building relations with Iran. This has led the Saudis to end the petro-dollar agreement and begin to normalize relations with Iran now that they are both in BRICS. A new regional order is forming up where Russia and China supplant the American empire as the patron.

From the Israeli perspective, this is a catastrophe. Both Russia and China are wise to how the Israelis operates, and they have no Israel lobby in their countries. While both countries have always tried to maintain good relations with Israel, they both see Israel as part of the Global American Empire. It is not all that clear if they understand how the neocons use Zionism as a cover, but they certainly understand that Israel is a launching pad for American shenanigans in the region.

Instability has always been part of the Israel playbook too. Whether it is exploiting rivalries between its neighbors or rivalries inside its neighbors, the game has always been to maximize regional instability. This not only keeps the Arab countries on shaky ground, but it keeps the American empire involved. A war with Iran that draws in other Arab countries, thus forcing the American empire to get directly involved maximizes uncertainty and instability in the region.

One final possibility here is that the neocons may have decided that the Ukraine project is hopeless, so it is time to open a new front. Russia has strong relations with Iran, so war between the American empire and Iran would inevitably force the Russians to provide support to Iran. This would fit with the overall strategy laid out by the Rand Corporation five years ago and the philosophical outlook of the neocons going back to the end of the Cold War.

The question no one asks is if the American empire could wage a war against Iran and whether it could survive it. For decades it has just been assumed that the empire will win any war with any nation if it so chooses. A big part of the mythos of the American war machine is the assertion that the only wars the empire has “lost” are those it chose not to fight to win. This started with Vietnam and has been a fog that rests over any analysis of American war capacity.

The Ukraine war revealed this to be a myth. American wonder weapons either failed to live up to their promise or were quickly neutralized by the Russians. More importantly, NATO has been exposed as a paper tiger with regards to its ability to manufacture the sorts of weapons necessary for a long war. You can also throw in the failure to suppress the Houthis with expensive bombing campaigns. Clearly, the rest of the world learned something from thirty years of American war making.

Iran does not have the military industrial capacity of Russia, but it does have the support of Russia and China. Iran can also count on Syria and Iraq to help deliver weapons and men to the border of Israel. She can also count on OPEC not coming to the rescue when oil prices double overnight. In other words, whatever the motivations, a regional war that drags in the American empire to fight Iran could very well be a catastrophe for the American empire.

What all of this points to is exhaustion. The Israeli political culture is a chaotic mess that shows all the signs of being a spent force. It is a bunch of old guys living in the past, trying to cling onto life and power. This is not much different from the state of play in Washington, where it is a political class trapped in the last century. The flailing about that now defines imperial foreign policy is the result of yesterday men unable to come to terms with the reality of current age.

If this comes to pass, the American empire would not be the first to face its mortality in the Middle East. The Romans eventually learned that the Middle East was more trouble than it was worth. Perhaps it also spells the end of the Zionist project. It has been eighty years since the birth of the Zionist state, so maybe they are about to succumb to the curse of the eight decade. Of course, the Global American Empire is in its eighth decade as well, so maybe there is something to it.

Our Code Death

Posted on July 31, 2024 by thezman

Simulation theory is the hypothesis that says what people perceive as reality is actually an advanced, hyper-realistic computer simulation. It sounds like the basis for a cheesy science fiction story, but serious people think seriously about it. This post in Scientific American covers the basics. The very short version is something similar to what was presented in The Matrix series of films, just without the killer computer programs hunting humans who have managed to escape the simulation.

This idea is not new. In fact, it may be one of our oldest weird ideas, if you think of Plato’s allegory of the cave as a stab at simulation theory. It seems that humans have always known that at the minimum we are of two minds. There is the mind that attempts to comprehend objective reality and the other mind that contextualizes reality into things like social order, culture, history, and tradition. Culture is an artificial reality of sorts, but it is often more real to us than objective reality.

The obvious question is how could we tell if we are in a simulation? If the beings running the simulation have fooled us for this long, then surely, they have the ability to hide evidence of their handiwork. On the other hand, maybe there is evidence all around us, but we were initially coded to not be good at noticing it. As we have evolved, we have gotten better at noticing, so perhaps our evolutionary arc is that we finally reach the point where we notice the simulation.

Some people suggest that the drive toward creating artificial intelligence and virtual reality is evidence that we live in a simulation. If humans can create a reality with conscious beings inside of it, then it stands to reason that other intelligence species have reached the same point and we are their creation. That would mean they are a creation of some other species and so on and so on. In other words, “reality” is simulations all the way down.

That still leaves us with the problem of knowing we live in a simulation. One bit of evidence would be limits or shortcuts in the universe. There is some process, for example, that works, despite violating the laws of physics that prevent other similar processes from working. Maybe we find some part of the universe that seems to be off-limits to our observations. We build a super powerful telescope and finally see that door with the sign on it that reads, “No Entry.”

The thing is though, this approach assumes we have correctly noticed everything to this point and have not yet found the evidence we seek. Another way of looking at it is that maybe we have not reached the level of noticing to see the evidence that is all around us in our daily lives. The Mandela Effect is the observed phenomena where large numbers of people believe something false to be true. There are dozens of examples where lots of people collectively share a false memory.

Maybe our brains have been coded to contextualize reality in such a way that anomalies are filtered out along with other useless junk. For example, millions of Trump haters are slowly coming around to the idea that the Trump assassination attempt is a false memory. Facebook is removing the iconic images of Trump raising his fist on stage with blood running down his face. It will not be long before these people are sure it never happened and call it a conspiracy theory.

Along the same lines, we have the Russia Collusion Hoax, which these same people swore was real, but now they swear it never happened at all. The same people who made up that hoax have convinced most of the world that Hunter Biden never owned a laptop and if he did, it was planted in that computer shop by the same people who rigged the 2016 election for Trump. Remember Covid? Of course not, as it never happened, and only crazy people think otherwise.

The Covid event is rather good evidence of one of those systemic shortcuts that point to this being a simulation. For months much of the world literally stopped going to work and yet the economy did not collapse. Everything we thought we knew about the workings of a modern economy said such a thing would plunge the world into a dark age, yet nothing changed all that much. Food got more expensive, but it somehow managed to get on the shelves.

Probably the biggest anomaly that has been at the center of politics for twenty years is the election of Barak Obama. To this day no one can say with confidence that he was born in the United States. In addition to his murky backstory, his total lack of qualifications to do anything, much less be president, should have relegated him to obscurity, but in violation of two hundred years of past practice, it was an asset in his campaign for the White House.

We are seeing another one of these political paradoxes. In 2020 Kamala Harris was as popular as rectal cancer. Despite having more money than any other candidate, she was never able to get any interest. Now, all of a sudden, she is anointed as the favorite to win the November election. As with Obama, we are seeing a violation of rules that have been predictive for many generations. Perhaps what we are really seeing is one of those shortcuts used by the programmers.

The larger point here is that what we are seeing makes no sense in the context of the rules we think govern human society. The reason no one talks about the economy anymore is it no longer makes any sense. The lunacy of the political media that has become the norm is not an effort to warp our sense of reality, but a reflection of the spaghetti code that is generating political media. The simulation is shaking itself to bits because of an accumulation of bugs and bug fixes.

Of course, we know what happens when a software system becomes so buggy that it can no longer be trusted. At least we think we know. You wipe the system and begin with a new code base. When a business reaches a point where it can no longer be reorganized, it is wiped out in what we call bankruptcy. A human society that reaches the point where the bugs are too numerous to fix, like the bad software, it is wiped out in what we call a revolution. We may be at that point.

The Last Atheist

Posted on July 30, 2024 by thezman

There was a time when the so-called New Atheists were getting a lot of attention online and in the media. The main reason for the interest was famous people with claims to empiricism, people like Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris, leading the charge for the New Atheists. Famous people can focus public attention on just about anything and when those famous people have credentials people are conditioned to respect, then those famous people can lead public debate.

The movement ran out of steam for a few reasons. One is Richard Dawkins found out that he could bash Christians as much as he liked, but when he moved onto other religions the priests of the New Religion took exception. In Britain, you cannot mock Islam and nowhere are you allowed to mock Judaism. Although it is unlikely that he ever figured it out, the truth is Christianity in the English-speaking world has come to mean “white” and the New Religion is antiwhite.

Sam Harris, the another famous New Atheist, was largely undone by his own weirdness, which you can see in this old debate. He looks like someone you would see in a documentary about serial killers. Persuasion is as much about how the arguments are presented, as about the facts and reason, and Harris presents as a psychopath who you would not buy a car from much less an argument about God. It turned out that Harris was the best argument against atheism.

The main problem for atheists, of course, is that they do not have an affirmative argument to make in support of their claims. You cannot prove a negative, which means there is no way to prove God does not exist. The best they can do is attack the arguments in favor of the existence of God. This not only makes them sound like jerks, but it can never work for the simple reason that people do not abandon their beliefs when they stop making sense, only when they find a better belief.

The other problem for atheists is that they engage in a form of argument that is inherently dishonest in its form. They start with the assertion that their claim is one of however many valid claims. Therefore, if they disprove the other claims, that means their claim is the right one by default. It is why atheists spend all of their time attacking what they claim are the arguments in favor of God, rather than putting together an argument in favor of their godless universe.

This is the Intelligent Design argument in a nutshell. Since there is no way to prove that God got drunk one night and created the platypus, they spend all of their time “disproving” evolution or asserting that “Darwinism” is a religion. It is entirely possible everyone is wrong, and we live in a simulation and the ID’ers are mistaking what they see for the hand of providence, for what is really just the work of bored child of a race of superbeings in another dimension.

That aside, the biggest problem for atheists, however, is that our moral framework as a civilization rests on the assumption that right and wrong, ought and ought not, are backstopped by something that lies outside the reach of man. This has always meant God, the gods or the shaman who communicates with the spirit world. Often, this supernatural element is bound up in tradition, which is just a handy word for agreed upon ways of acting over a long period of time.

If you rip out God from the equation, then all things are permitted unless you can find a reasonable argument against it. You can see the problem here in this video of Harris being interrogated by a young YouTuber. It quickly becomes clear that the new moral framework Harris proposes makes no sense, not even to Harris. He is reduced to endless equivocation and restatement. Depending upon your perspective it is either sad or amusing to watch him struggle.

Of course, the main problem for Harris in his quest to create a new reason-based morality is that such a thing is not possible. Every human society has a morale code, a list of things you ought and ought not do. These collective beliefs in what is and is not ethical are either based on tradition or in the supernatural. One of the cornerstone beliefs must be that there are bits of this code that are off-limits to questioning, as they are too important to put to a vote.

This is the problem for late-empire America and the West in general. Once the medieval Christian conception of God was removed, the entire moral superstructure of the West began to faulter. Liberalism itself rests on a priori beliefs that are rooted in the Western Christian tradition. The reason liberal democracy looks like despotic anarchy is that the thing it requires to remain rational has been removed. The result is a Hobbesian moral universe that often appears suicidal.

This brings us back to the atheists. The main reason their project has always failed is that you cannot replace a set of beliefs with nothing. People will believe in something similar until a better option is found. Belief in the supernatural solves a problem, which is why humans share this one quality. For Western man, the zenith of belief was late-medieval Christianity. The long arc of the West that has reached the current state is the struggle to replace that belief with nothing.

In a way, the rise and fall of New Atheism gives us an insight into what lies ahead for the Godless world we have created for ourselves in the West. It is the image of the last atheist stammering his way through basic questions which he cannot answer because how we ought and ought not live lies in the thing he seeks to destroy. Ironically, it means the reality of belief will once against reassert itself because reality is the thing that does not go away when you stop believing in it.

Christianity Versus Democracy

Posted on July 29, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door on the great stone of truth I have a post about a good new Western called Old Henry, a post about the Olympics and the Sunday podcast. Subscribe here or here.

A question that does not get asked very much, especially in public, is if Christianity is compatible with democracy. Organized Christians in this age make a point of supporting “democracy” because the people in charge cannot stop talking about it, but that speaks to the sorts of people running organized Christianity. They want to be in good standing with the rulers, an irony that never gets mentioned. The thing they claim to profess evolved in opposition to secular rule.

Putting that aside, the issue of whether democracy, as in the consent of the governed through direct participation in governance by the governed, is compatible with Christianity is an important one. It is clear that as the West has become more democratic, it has become less Christian. Open hostility to Christianity is a feature of the class of people who talk about democracy the most. It certainly seems like the fans of democracy are not fans of Christianity.

Most people today who call themselves Christian or one of the sects of what we think of as Christianity are well aware of the hostility, but they blame secularism or various names for radicalism, rather than democracy. Christians embrace democracy as much as the opponents of Christianity, even if their particular brand of Christianity has no democratic elements. Catholicism, for example, is anti-democratic in structure, but American Catholics love democracy.

There are, however, Christian sects that do embrace democracy. Baptists churches, for example, hire their pastors. If the pastor finds a bigger church willing to hire him and pay him more money, he is free to leave the old church and join the new one. On the other hand, if the church congregation or the deacons decide the pastor is not to the liking they can fire him. Here is a video from a Baptist minister giving the background on why he was recently fired by his church.

The short version of the video is the pastor gave a sermon on marriage and the role of women that was based in a traditional interpretation of Scripture. The wife of the youth pastor, a more modern woman, was offended by the sermon. She and her husband organized a campaign within the church against the pastor in the video and eventually got him fired from his post. In the end, they got a majority of the congregation to agree that either he goes, or they go.

This is a very democratic result. After all, the starting point for democracy is the assertion that the majority must prevail. While there is nothing in Scripture that says this is how things must be, most Christians accept this assertion. In fact, one could argue that the most important victim of majority rule was Christ. If instead of demanding Barabbas they demanded Jesus, the world would be quite different. The point is this congregation and others like it are not organized according to Scripture.

More important, the way they are organized contradicts a basic assumption of all religions, not just Christianity. That basic assumption is that there are some things too important to be left to man. These are things that are true because the gods or God have declared them to be true. Scripture does not say adultery, for example, has to be sorted through a show of hands. For Christians, adultery is a sin, and it is not up for debate

Without knowing the content of the sermon that the pastor in the video says was the source of the conflict, it cannot be judged dogmatically. What matters is the pastor preached in a way that offended the congregation, or at least a majority of them, so the rest went along with firing him. If his sermon was theologically and scripturally correct, then it means the congregation decided they did not like that part of the Bible, so they avoid it and those who preach it.

The point here is that for Christianity to work, or any religion for that matter, the main body of its beliefs must be beyond the collective judgement of man. The collection of oughts and ought nots that make up every religion are rooted in an authority beyond the ability of man to question. Otherwise, the oughts and ought nots are rooted in the collective will of the people. The word we have for this is democracy. In other words, democracy replaces God or the gods as the moral authority.

This is why the radicals of the French Revolution firts set their eyers on the Catholic Church when they gained power. Popular consent could not coexist with an alternative moral authority or its representative on earth, so it had to go. The same logic was at work when they eradicated the aristocracy. Hierarchy is an alternative moral authority to popular sovereignty, so it cannot coexist with it. The thrown and the altar have always been the enemy of popular consent.

You see that in the story of the video pastor. The people who engineered his termination feel justified not because they find support in Scripture, but because they think they have the support of the majority. The God they truly worship is not on the Bible but in the show of hands and their sense of being in the majority. It is not hard to see how this can lead to what you see with the Episcopal Church. It is rainbows and sodomites because the god they worship is the god of democracy.

What the evidence leads to is that the enemy of Christianity is not liberalism or even secularism, but the concept of democracy. Once people of any faith embrace the idea that truth is the result of consent, there is no room for God. Any religion that tries to exist in a society that embraces democracy, will come under pressure to replace its God with the god of the people. As a matter of survival, Christians should see democracy as their primary enemy, externally and internally.

This raises an important question. Can Christianity survive in a democracy. Even if the Church rejects democracy and all its works, can it survive in a society which is governed by the principles of democracy? Is there some limit on the democratic impulse that must be in place and be viewed as unassailable in order for Christian to live in democratic society. If not, then are Christians obligated to fight democracy or simply acquiesce to their own destruction?

Forgotten Fakery

Posted on July 26, 2024 by thezman

I was unsure what to do for a show this week. The nonstop firehose of craziness from the political class has fried my brain a bit. That and the events of the last week have broken the gauge on my clown meter. The absurdity of the Kamala Harris campaign on the heels of Nursing Home Joe getting bumped off in a midnight coup highlights the utter fakeness of our politics.

Instead of trying to make any sense of it, I just turned the mic on and started talking for an hour in a drug fueled stream of consciousness. Okay, there were no drugs involved, even though drugs would make it easier to follow the election. Instead, I meandered around from one topic to another, all revolving around the fact that our politics have been fake and gay for a long time.

In fact, I was going to call the show “Fake & Gay” but that ran into problems with the platforms I post this to, so I went with something less salty. That is, however, the prevailing sentiment of the show. It is not just that things are fake now, but they have been fake for a long time. What we are seeing now is the approach to peak fakeness, which most likely comes just before collapse.

That said, whenever we think we have reach to limit of absurdity in our politics, our rulers find another gear. That seems to be true with the fakery. Obama seemed like the ultimate model of the banal, superficial politician. Now here we have Harris who is nothing but a cackle and pantsuit. She is the DEI version of Hilary, which means a cheap replica of the real thing, but in brown.

This Week’s Show

Contents

Introduction
Fakeness Of Our Politics
Mentacide
Kurt Schmoke
Obama
Pitchmen & Carnies
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
The Coming Election

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DEI Another Day

Posted on July 25, 2024 by thezman

The ongoing saga over who is actually running the White House and who will be the opponent of Donald Trump in the fall is a good example of how the political class lacks second order thinking. When they bumped off Biden, they did not think about what comes next, so they are now stuck with Harris. It also reveals that these people have no institutional memory, so they repeat past errors. In the case of Harris, they seem to have learned nothing from the Obama experience.

Back during the great interregnum, when issues like race, affirmative action, and demographics could be discussed, it was obvious that the main failure of affirmative action programs was not that they did not result in more blacks in the targeted area, but that the blacks themselves often resented it. Everyone just assumed that these people got where they were through affirmative action, rather than merit, so those who thought they earned it hated the stigma that came with affirmative action.

It is an important and overlooked part of race politics. The white saviors who create and implement these race programs are not counting heads looking for the correct number of brown people. They are looking for salvation. That comes, they assume, when the black recipients of their programs are grateful to the people behind them. The “failure” of affirmative action was that it created black resentment, the exact opposite of what the white saviors were expecting.

That aside, there were second and third order effects that no one thought to consider, and they also contained an internal contradiction that could not be covered up with moral language. You cannot have a meritocratic, egalitarian society and at the same time have special rights for certain people based on dubious claims about the suffering of their ancestors. Good intentions and righteous indignation could not obscure this reality nor stop people from acting on it.

Not only do our betters not think past their first move, but they also never learn from their past errors, so affirmative action was rebranded. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, no matter how they frame it, is just another set of lectures about how whites must overlook merit in order to fill the ranks with nonwhites. The libraries full of books soaked in emotive language on this topic delight and confuse the promoters of DIE projects, but the fundamental facts remain. It is affirmative action.

This is why people like Christopher Rufo have found it so easy to anathematize the term DEI and use it as a club to beat the managerial class. The fact that this new branding easily converts to DIE made it even easier. When a company CEO proudly states that his company will replace whites with nonwhites in order to meet the goals of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, in the minds of white people, the “great replacement” move from abstraction to a direct threat.

In other words, the whole DEI program that evolved in response to the moral failure of affirmative action pleased the people behind it, but they never thought about how it would play outside the hothouse of the academy. They never pondered the contradiction between mandatory association and the internal logic of a society that strives to be an egalitarian meritocracy. All they could see was the wonderfulness of their first trick and the assumed ends that must come after it.

This is all coming together with the Kamala Harris campaign. Apparently, not one remembers her 2020 primary run. No one remembers why they carefully groomed and insulated Barak Obama. Instead, they just bumped off Biden and assumed all their dreams would fall into place. Instead, they have the face of DEI as the default option for the Democratic nomination. Kamala Harris is the embodiment of everything the critics of DEI have been saying for a decade.

This is why her polling is terrible, worse than Biden’s, and why she may have to be replaced before the convention. White people see in Kamala Harris the face behind those dreadful diversity seminars at the office. Black people see the patronizing white women behind those same programs. For both races, Harris is what middle-aged cat ladies imagine is the ideal black woman. It is not that she is inauthentic, which is certainly true, but that she is genuinely offensive.

Of course, the people who created this mess are now tasked with finding a remedy to it, which means more obtuse shortsightedness. Reportedly the Obama faction is unhappy with Harris, a member of the Clinton faction, so they are floating the idea of Senator Mark Kelly as her running mate. The problem there is it underscores the fact that Harris is a DEI candidate. Fitting her with a competent white man not only highlights her ineptitude, but confirms what critics say about DEI.

This is why there is a good chance that this scheme falls apart entirely and the Democrats are left with a chaotic scramble at their convention. The thing they hoped to avoid would be made possible by their thumbless attempts to engineer a result that prevents an open convention. They keep stepping on these rakes, because they never think past the first move, and they learn nothing from past errors. The Democrats are now a collection of high time preference amnesiacs.

All of this brings up a larger issue, one that will not go away when this present fiasco has gone down the memory hole. Popular government can only work in an orderly society, and you get an orderly society when the people who make up that society agree that following the rules is of paramount importance. This is not possible in a diverse society, which must devolve into tribal factionalism. This is why the Framers warned about the threat of factionalism to the republic.

The ongoing demographic collapse of America, and the West in general, means the underlying requirement of Western style government is collapsing. The chaotic, big man government we see evolving with the Democrats is simply a product of the people who make up that party’s coalition. In time, this will be the reality of American society, if the demographic trends continue. The real choice behind these election dramas is between order and diversity. You cannot have both.

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