In the old days, people used to preserve food by “putting it up” in various ways, which meant storing it in a way that prevented spoiling. It also meant storing it in such a way that rats and mice could not get to it. In modern times homeowners make sure their house is safe from mice and squirrels. In both cases, there is a lot of time to think about the strategy of rodents. This is the same sort of thinking we must use when looking at the results of the Iowa caucuses last night.
None of the players in the drama were operating entirely on the level. Trump was the big winner; however, his game is not about the conventional winning of delegates, but of outflanking the lawfare system. The bigger the wins, the more difficult it will be for the system to remove him. At least that is the thinking. He assumes, perhaps foolishly, that a runaway win in the primaries will force the party to abandon its scheme to remove him from the ballot and appoint someone as the nominee.
Similarly, the minor candidates were using the six-month run up to this event for reasons that had nothing to do with winning. Christie ran to earn some good will from the party by saying mean things about Trump in the debates. Hutchinson ran so they will mention it in his obituary. Ramaswamy is playing the long game, hoping to become the heir to Trump. He is hoping to be the burnt orange version of Charlie Kirk so he can run in the future or have a media career.
These sorts of rodents scurry around every presidential primary, but we have some unusual vermin this time. Nikki Haley is running as a standard issue regime Democrat in the Republican primary. The base assumptions of her campaign are that Trump will be removed from the ticket and the party is ready to throw in the towel and merge with the Democrats like you see in most Democrat states. In those states, the Republicans run lighter versions of the Democrats in statewide elections.
What she hoped for in Iowa was a clear second place finish. This would have knocked DeSantis out of the race. She would then be the sole anti-Trump option for the next few months, establishing herself as the logical alternative for when the party removes Trump from the ballot. Instead, she came in third place, with her support coming mostly from Democrats crossing over to vote for the most virulent anti-Trump option. She was close enough to DeSantis, however, to stay in the race.
Her strategy is to look for a big night in New Hampshire next week. The way to look at this New Hampshire primary is as a general election. It is an open primary so anyone can vote on the Republican side. The Democrats and Republicans have been running massive get out the vote drives in order to have as many far left crackpots from Massachusetts take a GOP ballot. That is another thing about the state. People from Massachusetts regularly drive over and vote in the primary.
DeSantis has all but abandoned New Hampshire, as in a general election style format there is no room for a candidate trying to stake out the middle ground. Instead, he is now focused on South Carolina and Nevada. He has no chance to win either contest, but his people think he can beat Haley in both. If he bests her in her own state, then he can argue that he is the better choice for when Trump is removed. Currently he is behind Haley by a factor of four in South Carolina.
The more likely path for DeSantis is to do well enough in South Carolina to argue that Haley is unelectable and then conserve money to run a minimum campaign into Super Tuesday when things get interesting on the lawfare side. It is the longest of longshots, but it is what he has at the moment. The party and its financiers prefer Haley as their Trump alternative and Trump voters have come to despise DeSantis. That leaves him with few voters to collect in these primaries.
Of course, one of the biggest rats gnawing away at things is the media. Clearly, the word has gone forth that they are to invest in Nikki Haley. The reason they called the race so soon was so the campaigns could have a coping strategy and therefore a narrative to use in the media. This will help Haley as she can plausibly claim that she barely lost to DeSantis due to the early call. She did win one county, which is something DeSantis did not accomplish.
Through the media, we can see that the regime has determined that Haley is a good replacement for Biden, even if she is in the wrong party. In a way, they are trying to engineer the primary into a version of Hillary versus Trump in 2016. This may be why Haley is running around praising Hillary Clinton. This is the narrative framing that the regime is conjuring, so Haley is leaning into it. After all, from her perspective, the real nominating process is in Washington.
The biggest rat in the room is the regime. It is an open secret that they want Trump removed from the ballot, but even a regime as evil and sterile as this one has some fear of the peasant revolt. If Trump is plowing through these primaries and people are wise to Haley being a Democrat catspaw, executing their scheme could turn out to be their Samson option, so there may be some hesitance in some circles. Last night’s result was another setback in their scheme.
Much will depend on what happens in the courts. The first shoe to drop will be the 14th amendment case. The court has agreed to take this on an expedited basis, which means a decision may come in February. If the court comes down hard in favor of Trump, which is a possibility, then it could signal to the rest of the legal system that lawfare will face an uphill battle. If the court is open to the claim, then it will be read by the lower court judges that they can do their worst.
All of the study of rat behavior obscures the fact that the only reason any of this is happening is Trump dared to speak for normal white people in 2016. Whites are about seventy percent of the voters right now. Twenty percent of them are insane, leaving about half the voters with no representation in the system. The Democrats explicitly hate these voters, and the Republicans implicitly hate them. Elections are about who gets to spit in these people’s faces first.
That is the subtext of this election. The regime is debating with itself whether now is the time to close the door entirely on the white voter. They believe the time is near when national elections will be like we see in Democrat controlled states. There is a permanent majority called Democrats, a ceremonial opposition called Republican and the goal is to prevent the majority of citizens from getting any say. The results last night suggest they still have some work to do.
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