Every society is held together by a number of forces. Trust, tradition, blood, fear, force and convenience work in combination to keep a society whole. Until recent, trust was the strong force in Scandinavian societies. Tradition and blood played a large role, but those have been diluted with diversity. North Korea, in contrast, relies on the threat of state violence to keep society together. Tradition and blood still play a role, but it is mostly fear of being sent to a camp that keeps society together.
In America, trust was always the force that kept local community together, while tradition kept regional identity together. America was always a big country with lots of room, so self-segregation smoothed over the rough spots. With the elimination of free association and the importation of millions of foreigners, social trust is rapidly breaking down and being replaced with state force. For now, trouble makers are sent to diversity training, rather than a labor camp, but the idea is the same.
The thing is, America still remains a big place with lots of room, so the North Korean model is not going to hold it together. Even the Scandinavian model of soft authoritarianism, run by mentally disturbed women, is unlikely to hold the country together in a crisis. In fact, that model is probably the least plausible in a crisis, as the women in this sort of system are crisis actors, not crisis managers. Politics gives them the attention that normal life does not afford them.
That’s something to keep in mind when thinking about what comes next. The soft, feminine authoritarianism we see in the West is a free rider. It is possible because of the inertia from the old high trust societies that came before it. If Finland faced a real crisis, one that threatened its existed, the first thing that happens is their pixie of prime minister is replaced with a serious person. The same would be true in Canada, where their gender fluid prime minister is mostly a luxury item.
Putting that aside, the question for Americans is where would trust be placed in a crisis, enough trust to wield the force necessary to mobilize the country. For a long time, Gallup has been polling people about confidence in various institutions. For example, in 1973, 65% of the America public said they had a great deal or quite a lot of trust in religious institutions. Today it is 36%. The change in the no trust column has gone from single digits to 25%, more than the great deal of trust column.
A similar decline in trust has occurred with the political institutions. The Supreme Court still enjoys the trust of 38% of the public. Those court trusters are probably the Baby Boom generation, as they have always had the highest trust in the courts. Even today, they will argue that the courts will protect the constitution. This is why they support Trump, despite his problems. He’s going to nominate good judges, so the argument goes, and those judges will follow the constitution.
Congress, on the other hand, is down to 11%. That seems amazingly high, but maybe that number reflects the public work force. Even crazier, 45% of the public trusted Congress in 1973. That right there is a great metric when trying to understand the relationship between diversity and social trust. The flood gates of diversity opened in the 1960’s. As the hordes poured into your cities and towns, social trust began to collapse, showing up in the people’s house of government.
Another area where the cancer of diversity reveals itself is in the schools. Trust in the public schools is at 29% from 59% in 1973. A half century ago, Americans could send their kids off to the local school, knowing their classmates would be neighbors and the teacher would be someone they knew. Today, the grammar school classes look like the bar scene from Star Wars and the teachers are dangerous weirdos. The kids pass through metal detectors and they wear Kevlar book bags.
Trust in newspapers has not changed much. That’s probably not a very good metric when trying to figure out what’s happening. The only people consuming newspapers these days are old white people. Within a decade, most cities in America will no longer have a newspaper. The big media sites are megaphones for the managerial state, so comparing them to newspapers is not accurate. Still, the numbers suggest that white people have always been skeptical of the news media.
The two institutions that jump out are the military and police. Today, 53% of Americans say they trust the police a great deal or quite a lot. Even more impressive, 73% of the people trust the military. The only other “institution” with this degree of trust is small business, and that’s not really an institution. Instead, that’s residual trust in community that has carried over in spite of diversity. People still have a high opinion of the local business man who contributes to his community.
That brings us back to those forces that hold society together. In modern America, diversity is destroying trust in the civic institutions. The long culture war has destroyed trust in religion. The two most trusted institutions are the two given the right to use deadly force in defense of society. Like the executioner, the warrior, is permitted to spill blood, thus elevating him to the highest rank of every society. In a crisis, it is always the executioner and the soldier, who rise to the top.
There is a difference between the warrior and the executioner. The latter is the last line of defense, something tolerated, not celebrated. The former is a forward deployed defender, celebrated for his spilling of blood. No society throws a parade for its famous executioner. The soldier, on the other hand, is a hero to his people for spilling the blood of the enemy, real or imagined. Unlike any other citizen, if there is doubt about his actions, he gets the benefit of the doubt.
It is tempting to assume from this that the next step to the diverse multicultural paradise is a world run by cops and soldiers. Most likely, it will be the custodial state that incorporates both institutions. Instead of the military seizing control of the government, it will be corporations seizing control of the military and police. That’s what you see with tech companies helping local police install surveillance equipment in the homes of suburbanites and cameras on the streets of the ghetto.
Over the next year, Americans will be forced to stand in line at their local motor vehicle department to get a “real ID.” This will be required to enter a government building or travel on an airplane. Soon, it will be required for banking, travel from one zone to another, and all government and corporate services. To have a social media account, will require you provide your real ID. To have phone service or e-mail will require you to show your papers to an officer of the corporate state.
The role of cops and soldiers will be the same as in the prior arrangements. Instead of these institutions defending the civil institutions, they will be deployed to defend the new custodial state. They will get awards for capturing twitter trolls, instead of capturing bank robbers. Social trust will be replaced with fear of ostracism, the force of the corporate state and the convenience of weekend drone delivery. These are the forces that will hold together the post-national custodial state.
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