Ending Strength

Posted on June 20, 2024 by thezman

One of the consequences of youth culture is that there is not a lot of thought put into the fitness of old people. What little there is on the subject is either aimed at peddling drugs or peddling the crackpot idea that you are as young as you feel. The former looks at the swelling population of geezers the same way they looked at Covid. They are just looking for a way to steal more money. The latter tends to promote activities that have dubious fitness benefits and mostly sell good vibes.

The main reason for this is Americans are terrible at being old. The obsession with youth is a core part of the culture. Every political cycle, billions of words are wasted on what the youth have to say about things, as if being young makes you wise and smart, when in reality you are at your dumbest when young. Of course, young people are encouraged to set new trends and then old people are encouraged to adopt those trends so they can pretend to be young.

This was not always the way. For most of human history, youth was a thing humans were quickly ushered through so that they could become productive members of the family and community. Once children could do useful things, they were put on a course to learn to be an adult. In the modern age, it is the reverse. Once someone hits the age of majority, they are put on a course to maintain the illusion of perpetual youth in order to avoid thinking much about what comes after youth.

The thing is though, you will spend most of your life living outside of your physical prime, so preparing for it and maximizing that time should be important. The old Mickey Mantle joke about how if he knew he would live as long as he did, he would have taken better care of himself was funny because it is true. Good fitness habits in the twenties and thirties are what make for good health in the middle years possible. Good habits in the middle years are what set up productive later years.

Instead of a fitness culture aimed at maximizing fitness over the long arc of your life, the focus is on unrealistically preserving youth. Gyms profit from people hoping to attain a physique that they never had in their youth and probably never would have attained in their youth if they tried their best. In their post-youth they are struggling and failing to attain a goal that makes no sense. Worst of all are the weight trainers who strive to look like Greek statues, so they can post shirtless pics on Twitter.

Years ago, a smart guy named Mark Rippetoe wrote a book titled Starting Strength, in which he laid out his scheme for basic weight training. It remains a classic in the weight training world as it explains all of the important exercises and how they strengthen specific muscle groups. It made a lot of money for him, but it would have been better if it were called Ending Strength. The reason is the point of exercise in general is to extend the useful years of your body to the furthers possible limit.

The proposition with regards to fitness is quite simple. If you are thirty years old, would you trade a few years of looking buff right now for not being able to climb stairs in the final ten years of your life. Sadly, most thirty-year-olds would go with looking buff, but no fifty-year-old worried about such an outcome would take that deal. Yet, that is the way fitness culture is structured and the thumb is on the scale to encourage people to take the buff option, long after buff is plausible.

You can probably blame this on the boomers as the obsession with perpetual youth started with that generation. Prior to the post-war years, youth culture was limited to jazz clubs and the degenerates who frequented them. In fairness, boomers did not invent youth culture, but they embraced it, and they still embrace it. Every potion, product and promotion are sold to them as the fountain of youth. It will not be long before lifestyle companies are claiming eighty is the new thirty.

The thing is though, eighty can be a better eighty, if all along the arc of life the person is encouraged to do the things that pay those dividends in old age. Regular weight training in the middle years with the goal of maintaining muscle mass will mean climbing the stairs when you are eighty rather than buying a stair lift. Functional exercise aimed at maintaining cardiovascular capacity in your thirties will mean being able to walk the museum with your grandchildren.

Of course, the reason no one tries to sell a program like this to middle aged people is the target audience fears old age more than death, so anything that reminds them that they will one day be old is a no sale. Still, it seems like there could be some audience for a program that focuses on extended quality years. The typical white person in American is in his fifties. This is a guy thinking about how many quality years he has left and what he can do with them.

That is the warping power of youth culture and a good example of what happens when the wrong people gain cultural power. Peddling potions and programs that promise to make you look young and buff is good for the sort of people who work at card tables in temporary offices where all the cars in the parking lot are left running in case they have to make a quick escape. They do not care about the long-term health of the population, just the short-term profit to be gained from them.

In a way, fitness is a microcosm for the current crisis in that it focuses all of the attention on the here and now, usually on unattainable or pointless goals, without thinking about what comes around the next bend. Most of what ails present day America is the result of not thinking at all about the second order effects of present actions. Youth culture has created a population with no sense of time. Instead of building something to last, it aims for living fast and leaving behind a good-looking corpse.

What this suggests is that the antidote to what ails us in this age is the rejection of youth culture and the short-term thinking that comes with it. Instead of maximizing the moment, the focus must be on ending strength. The long arc of life, politics and the culture is to be the best at the end rather than the beginning. People who live with the end in mind have full lives and a culture full of such people is one that avoids the present troubles and endeavors to sustain itself for the long haul.

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Gradually And Then Suddenly

Posted on June 19, 2024 by thezman

The Brits are set to have an election on July 4th, ironically enough, and everyone expects it to be a terrible result for the ruling party. The Tories have been in power for a long time and have managed to break every promise they made when they gained power and make everything worse that they promised to improve. On top of that they have gone through a series of ridiculous people as Prime Minister. The current person in the job is an Indian little person who has never run for office.

The reason the Conservatives called what the Brits call “snap elections”, is the people who actually run Britain are worried about new right-wing parties. Snap elections are those called on short notice in some parliamentary systems. The logic behind it is that the ruling party can more easily rig an election when they are out of favor by limiting the time for the opposition to mount a campaign. Democracy depends on institutional skullduggery to maintain its legitimacy.

According to current polling, which is as fraudulent as everything else in the West these days, the Conservatives are at 21%, which is their lowest rating ever. This is why there is a campaign called Zero Seats. The argument is that the only way to break the corrupt system is to eliminate one of the two main parties. Since the Tories are as popular as rectal cancer, they are the best target. While unlikely, it is possible to see a scenario in which they become a fringe party.

It is not all bad news for the Conservatives. Their historic dance partner, Labour, is polling at just 41%, which is terrible given the status of the Tories. Like America, the game of see-saw the parties play says that when one face of the ruling class is unpopular, the other face is popular. Right now, in the UK, both faces of the ruling class are unpopular, which is why they forced snap elections. No respectable person wants to see a new party rise up and challenge the system.

Just in case, the regime has brought Nigel Farage back from America where he was committed to stumping for Donald Trump. Farage is now the leader of the Reform Party, which is the heir to the Brexit Party. He created that after he successfully led the winning side in the Brexit referendum. The party was created to force the regime to follow through on the referendum, which they did not do. It is one of the reasons UK politics are such a mess now.

The only reason any of this matters is it is a good way to see how the system adjusts to defend itself from public discontent. The British regime is just the mini-me of the American regime, so it is a microcosm of what happens in America. The scale is smaller, and the system is slightly different, but we see all the same tricks used by the regime to make sure it is always heads they win and tails you lose. One of those tricks is to co-opt discontent into an acceptably pointless channel.

You can see how it works in the program the Reform Party posted on Twitter, now stupidly called X, the other day. They put immigration at the top because this is one of the top issues that is rustling the voters. To the untrained eye it all looks good, but to the trained eye the fraud is quite clear. The point of their program is to not question the moral claims behind immigration, but to put a fence around that morality so the question is how to best manage mass immigration.

Look at the first point. “Freeze non-essential Immigration.” The only reason to have the term “non-essential Immigration” is if you have “essential Immigration”, which is a moral claim held by the people Farage claims to oppose. Who decided that any immigration is essential and essential to whom? Was it the bankers who actually run the country or was it the managerial elite who adopted it as a luxury belief? Who decides what is and what is not essential about immigration?

Here is another example. “All asylum seekers that arrive illegally from safe countries will be processed rapidly, offshore if necessary.” Logically, the UK should never receive any asylum seekers as by law and logic, asylum seekers go to the nearest safe country for temporary refuge while the home country is in turmoil. The UK is a set of islands bordered by countries that are stable “democracies” so there can never be a case where anyone seeks asylum in the UK.

The point of this weaselly language is two-fold. One is it is the natural obsequiousness that infests all Western right-wing parties. They have the slave mentality, which means they are always bowing and scraping before the people they pretend to oppose with regards to the moral claims of the ruling elite. The other reason is it tend to work as people just see the headlines and never think about the qualifiers. Owning the libs is a universal concept in Western democracies.

Of course, putting an entertaining clown like Farage up as the front man is a great way to distract from this reality. People are mad and lack the sophistication to understand the issues in detail, so Farage provides a vent for their frustration by pretending to be on their side, when in reality he fully supports the moral framework that is the root cause of their frustration. Farage and his Reform Party are what James Carville once called “boob bit for the bubbas.”

The genius of the trick is it will work. Reform is now polling within a few points of the Tories at 16% in the government polls. In other polls they are in a statistical dead heat with the Tories. If they overtake them, then the people angry at the system will claim victory for having knocked out the Tories. Meanwhile, gangs of Muslims are chasing their daughters through the streets. If Reform flops, then they can focus their energy on being angry at Labour for a few years.

For Americans, this should sound familiar. The usual suspects co-opted the Tea Party to become a subsidiary of the Republican Party. What could have been a threat to the system was quickly neutralized. The current populist groundswell has been slowly co-opted by oleaginous grifters who run around wearing red caps and talking about Trump like he is Orange Jesus. Meanwhile, Trump’s platform is now no different from what Jeb Bush was offering in 2016.

This may sound black-pilling and depressing, but the white pill in what is happening with populist parties all around the West is they are gnawing away at the legitimacy of the system by forcing these reactions. The dullards in the UK fall for Farage, but there are lots of people who have gotten wise to this stuff by watching him work. In the U.S., the Trump phenomenon has opened the eyes of many to the reality of the system, simply by seeing the system react to Trump.

In other words, the process by which a system loses its legitimacy is through its various mutations to defend itself from challenges. The number of people wondering if the system should be saved is a measurable number now, thanks to the struggle the system has undergone to defend against even mild reform. The same is true all over as people increasingly notice the unwillingness of the system to give an inch on critical issues like immigration and culture.

The old line from Hemingway about bankruptcy being gradually then suddenly applies to all complex systems. Failed populist uprisings and Potemkin opposition movements are the gradually portion of the show. With every failure to get even a tiny concession from the system, the system loses legitimacy. At some point, and no one ever knows when it will happen, the suddenly part of the show begins. In order to get there, you have to work through the gradually part first.

The White Fortress

Posted on June 18, 2024 by thezman

It is fair to say that Detroit was one of the first victims of the civil rights revolution, given what happened to it relative to where it was pre-revolution. After the war, Detroit was the most prosperous city in the country. In 1950 the city had 1.8 million people and the highest per capita income in the country. Then the civil rights revolution unleashed hell on the city, leading to a collapse of its economy and population. Motown is now roughly a third of its peak size and gripped by urban poverty.

Despite remaining the symbol of the urban decline unleashed by the civil rights revolution, Detroit is not the worst city in America. St. Louis continues to sport the highest murder rate in the country at 66 per 100,000. Baltimore is always the bridesmaid in the murder Olympics at a respectable 56 per 100,000. Detroit is third, but the murder rate is 40 per 100,000. That is still ten times worse than the most dangerous European cities, but well off the pace in America.

Detroit has also stabilized to some degree. A few super wealthy men have tried to rescue parts of the city from the locals. The billionaire Dan Gilbert spearheaded the revitalization efforts in the city that have carved out some green zones that host business and the sports and entertainment areas. The Ford family continues to play an outsized role in the city. The result of these billionaire efforts has been to arrest the collapse of the city and slowly claw back some civilization.

It was not just the generosity of some oligarchs that saved Detroit from total collapse but also the recognition that the locals cannot be trusted. The state of Michigan stepped in and suspended the lunacy of democracy in the city. The city was ushered through Chapter 9 bankruptcy and an administrator was appointed. Many local politicians were arrested so they could not interfere in the repair efforts. Ten percent white Detroit continues to have a white mayor.

When you walk around Detroit now, you can get a glimpse of what lies ahead for majority-minority America. Like Brazil, Detroit is three cities. There is the war zone that has been cordoned off as best they can. Then there is the area where the more stable black population lives and then you have the economic zone. A weird balance has been struck where the more stable black population works in the economic zone and does not get rustled by the measures required to maintain it.

Walk around Greek Town on a Friday night and the thing you cannot help but notice is the lack of local color. This is the tourist part of the city located near the big sports arenas and the large office towers. It is called Greek Town because it was populated by Greeks before the savages were unleashed by the civil rights revolution. Like everything created in America over the last half century, Greek Town is named after what was destroyed in order to make the new thing.

The reason for the lack of local color is the police presence. It is not just cops milling about like you see in less violent cities. This is the sort of policing that is intended to be an unwelcome mat for a specific group. At all of the entrances to the area are cops who man metal detectors. They select who must go through the detector and then get the pat down once it inevitably sounds the alarm. One can guess as to who they select for this special form of inspection.

In fairness, Detroit is not the first city to take this approach. Baltimore was a trail blazer in this regard, having condemned the area around the harbor and then handing it to developers and urban pioneers in the 1980’s. The deal was that pioneers and developers would build a white fortress to serve as an entertainment and tourist zone, while the city would provide security. This meant aggressively policing the border between the green zone and the black zone.

Detroit appears to have used Baltimore as a template, but also learned from Baltimore how not to screw it up. Got to Baltimore today and it is a mess. The Inner Harbor is vacant and the former tourist areas are overrun by locals. Nature is reclaiming that which was carved out of the urban jungle decades ago. Detroit, in contrast, is holding the line and that is mostly due to elite support. The oligarchs are not going to let their investment be swallowed up by the jungle.

It is too soon to know if Detroit can survive with this model. The upper middle-class white population escaped the city and refuse to return, unless it is for a ball game, concert or for work. On a Friday night when there is no major event, Greek Town is a well-guarded ghost town. You can walk into the best restaurants and get a seat at what is usually their prime hours. The pricing reflects the fact that the entertainment industry is built around the major events.

That is the trade-off to politely working around the problem instead of rudely going after the roots of the problem. There is a lack of authenticity to Greek Town. It feels like the Potemkin “town centers” that are now part of the suburban white fortress that is getting attention from the kooks. They do all the things that you expect from the organic urban centers of old, but they lack that hard to describe sense that can only come from the produce of an authentic community.

It is tempting to think that maybe that is the compromise that will define the future, but these transactional communities have a poor record. The reason is the cost of maintaining them is much higher due to the lack of social capital. People in a new development have only the investment in their home. They have no investment in their neighbors, who come and go. Eventually, everyone finds a newer, cleaner white fortress because the old white fortress is beginning to crumble.

That is what makes Detroit worth watching. It was the first victim of the civil rights revolution, and it may be the last chance to figure out how to maintain an urban area within the moral construct of civil rights. If like Baltimore it collapses under the pressure of diversity, then there are no arguments left for maintaining the moral framework of civil rights, but if it survives as a post-modern apartheid city, then it can be the model for how to maintain civilization in a majority-minority America.

Modern Youth Politics Inc.

Posted on June 17, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is a post about my experiments with time travel and a series of daily travelogues about my time in Motown for AFPAC, which was much more interesting than I expected. Subscribe here or here.

Symbolism is one of the aspects of all politics, regardless of political system, which tends to get missed by political people. This is especially true of those we call the right, who are often deep in the weeds of ideology or theory. They are like experts on paint who are more concerned with the type of paint used by the great artist than the actual painting he created and its larger meaning. You see this with the reaction to the Nick Fuentes movement that just had its big party this past weekend.

Since he started to gain a following, critics have struggled to find a good way to attack him, as they often get tangled up in the symbolism. He became a national figure during the 2016 MAGA movement, but shot to the top with the 2020 election, where he toured the country holding rallies in the “stop the steal” days. He would gather up young fans and give speeches via bullhorn outside of state capitols. It was reminiscent of the radical protests of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

That was the point, more than the actual content of the protests. It is a form of guerilla marketing in which the counter to the well-financed and carefully choregraphed messaging from the regime is the apparently organic rejection of that message and the people behind the messaging. In other words, the point was not what they were saying at these events. The whole point of the event was to tell the world they exist, despite the mass propaganda from the regime.

This has always had another function for Fuentes. It tells the disaffected youth that there is a place they can go to be with other likeminded people. They see these things happening on their preferred platforms. They get talked up in the online spaces these young people frequent and most importantly, they get criticized by the sorts of people who make good foils for Fuentes. Like all good political animals, Fuentes tends to attract the sorts of critics he needs to make his points.

It is important to note that it has been a long time since someone has come along with the skill of Fuentes in terms of generating excitement. There is an electricity around his events that you never see at other political events. He understands his audience because in reality, Fuentes is his audience. He is trying to create the sort of excitement he and they learned about in history class. He is building a youth movement that mirrors what he thinks it was like in the Reagan or Kennedy years.

This is why the marketing of Nick Fuentes and American First looks like it is put together by profession marketing people. He and his entourage arrive at their impromptu rallies wearing the American First gear, which you can buy at the AF store and the crowd always has the same look at feel. He is always surrounded by guys holding up their mobile device who are surrounded by young men in blue blazers chanting the familiar chants that have become a defining feature of this thing.

While it looks like great marketing, it is genuinely organic. Much has been said about the fact that this generation is the first to be socialized online, but they are also the first generation to be saturated in and socialized by marketing. To old people, the thoroughly commercialized culture of today feels alien and weird. To the young people raised in it, it feels normal. It is simply a habit of mind. The people you see at a Fuentes rally are just falling into the role that fits them best.

In a way, it is as if life has become a video game. They play the character that they feel comfortable playing. Instead of being the barbarian character in the online game, they are the guy holding the cell phone up next to Nick. The archers fall into the role of standing in the back yelling the familiar slogans at Nick. Of course, there are the Leroy Jenkins characters at these things. That would be the black guy dressed as Playa Maga or the has-been grifters like David Duke.

This is what trips up his “right-wing” critics. They see the assorted kooks and weirdos that turn up at these events and then fashion an argument against Fuentes and his followers that often reduces to petty jealousy. Fuentes is doing what many of them said was impossible, mostly because they lacked the skill and courage to try and do the things that Fuentes is doing in terms of public demonstration. Calling Fuentes a grifter is a way to feel good about losing.

When you talk to the people at a Fuentes event, and in Detroit they were everywhere Saturday evening, they will tell you that people like Sneako are not really part of the movement but something like the court jester. They lack the sophistication to explain it, but they sense that the point of these colorful characters is to decorate the public face of the movement as something like an inside joke. The critics do not get it, which is why they are not in it.

Therein lies the genuine problem for this thing. It is like everything else in the modern mass media age in that it is just a thing you do until the next thing comes along. It is why Fuentes has had to keep shifting the focus and changing the characters in what is more like a long running reality television show than a political movement. Every season you get a new character and some new issues. It is not that it is a grift or he is not serious, but rather this is what this generation thinks is serious.

Another way to think of it is the films from twenty years ago where the walls between virtual reality and reality break down and you have a character from the digital world enter the real world or vice versa. This is what is happening for a generation raised on mass media, mass marketing within the context of virtual reality where the worst thing that can happen to you is your character dies. The politics of this generation are the politics of the internet, not the meat space.

Politics as professional wrestling is fun for the twenty-somethings who are naturally drawn to it, but in time they will have to have real lives. You see this transition in some of the older young people who are now working and on their own. Standing outside a Nick rally yelling those slogans feels foolish to them. That is the most likely way this thing unfolds over the next few years. The youthful excitement and superficiality will give way to more mature and serious politics.

This raises the question of the expiry date for Nick Fuentes. All pop stars who court the youth audience run into the same problem. There comes a point where their act goes from opportunistic to weird. They get too old for their market. Fuentes looks like he is a teenager, so he has time, but at some point, he will have to follow his older audience into a more mature form of politics. The question that remains unasked and unanswered is whether he will lead them or follow them.

The Conservative Industrial Complex

Posted on June 14, 2024 by thezman

One of the many frustrations of people in outsider politics is that the people inside conventional politics, especially in the conservative wing, never respond to what is going on outside of Washington. After every election, regardless of the result, they continue doing what they were doing before the election. We saw this most clearly after 2016 where Conservative Inc rallied against Trump.

The reason for that is conservatism is not just an institution or even a collection of institutions, but rather an ecosystem that provides total care for the people who are allowed to take up a place in it. If you manage to slither inside one of the institutions, you no longer live outside of your political existence. To the contrary, your entire life is now defined by your place in the political ecosystem.

The reason for that is the enormity of institutional conservatism. What it lacks in popular support it more than makes up for in financial support. That money is used to build a network of institutions that are linked together to provide a lifestyle to the people inside them that they could never achieve in the dreaded private sector. As a result, everyone inside is deeply loyal to the system.

That is the show this week. In order to provide some perspective on the size and scale of the Conservative Industrial Complex, I go through the leading organizations and explain their size and scope. This is just a sample as the system is composed of hundreds of nodes and is well over a billion dollars in revenue, before you start looking at their purely political activities.

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This Week’s Show

Contents

Introduction
How Politics Works
The Conservative Industrial
What Do These Groups Do?
The Conservative Ecosystem

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The Euros And Ukraine

Posted on June 13, 2024 by thezman

During Covid, one of the questions that kicked around was how would the public react when they found out the government was lying? The answer is we do not know as the whole thing has been thrown down the memory hole for the most part. The truth about Covid has slowly seeped into the public consciousness, but no one asks them about it and no media outlet discusses it. The best anyone can tell is that the Covid lies have become a part of the general cynicism.

We will soon get another case to see how the public will respond when the truth is nothing like what they have been told by the media. In the case of Project Ukraine, this test will happen in Europe where the local media talks about the war in Ukraine in terms that have always been fanciful. It was European media that gave us the “Ghost of Kiev” and the babushkas knocking down fighter jets with canned goods. They continue to feed their public outlandish stories about the war.

Those with an interest in the war and access to the internet can find out what is actually happening on the battlefield. The facts are often blurred by the fog of war and the bias of the people doing the reporting, but with some patience you can get a good picture of what is happening in Ukraine. It is even possible to get a sense of what is happening outside the war zone as there are still plenty of Ukrainians posting stuff to popular apps like Telegram and Instagram.

Very little of this reality gets into Europeans media. Instead, they produce content like this from the UK Telegraph, which is supposed to be a serious media platform, not the typical British tabloid. Not only are they “reporting” that Ukrainian “wonder weapons are decimating the Russians”, but they also have a special section with high production quality explanations of those wonder weapons. In other words, this is a highly choregraphed bit of propaganda designed to deceive the public.

The wonder weapon stuff is mild compared to some of the other posts you will find about Ukraine in the Telegraph. This one claims the Ukrainians are about to seize Crimea because their squadrons of unicorns are showering the place with magical fairy dust they shoot from their ass. That is not an exaggeration, as magical farting unicorns would be more plausible than the contents of the actual post. The whole thing is a fantasy with no basis in reality.

It is not just the UK media that is gaslighting the public. The German media is full of similarly nonsensical stories. Here is the Ukraine page for Bild, which you can use Google to translate into English. Die Zeit is probably the most respected news site in Germany, and it just copies and pastes whatever Kiev, or the neocons send them about what is happening in the war. While not as ridiculous as the UK media, the continental media is gaslighting its public just as hard.

The problem is the war is going horribly for Ukraine. The Russian army is slowly and methodically grinding the Ukraine army into bits. Every month the Ukrainians are forced to fall back at some point along the line of contact. The Russians have knocked out the power grid of the country, which means there is no electric for up to twenty hours per day in some areas. The Ukrainian army is literally snatching men off the streets and sending them to the front due to a lack of manpower.

What Ukraine war watchers have known for a long time is that at some point, the Ukraine army will not be able to keep fighting. At some point, the Russians will decide it is time to end the war on its terms. Given that this is a proxy war between Washington and Moscow, the assumption is the fall is when things come to a head, just in time for the presidential election. Maybe it will happen sooner or maybe later, but at some point, reality will burst through those European headlines.

From a distance, it is hard to know if the firehose of nonsense about the war is fooling the European public. The recent elections suggest that at the minimum the public is tired of the ruling parties putting the welfare of Ukraine ahead of the welfare of the European people. It is possible that the Euros have been wise to the media nonsense about Ukraine, but simply care more about other things. Like Covid, it is hard to know as no one bothers to find out what the public thinks.

Unlike Covid, the collapse of Project Ukraine is not going to be easy to sweep under the rug by ignoring it. With Covid, the liars scurried off with their bags of cash and the pols declared victory as they let their foot off the neck of the public. The general public was simply happy to get back to normal. That is probably not going to work with Ukraine as there is no benefit to putting the topic in the past. There will simply be what the media claimed to be true and the truth, which is the opposite.

Compounding the problem in Europe is the fact that the leading politicians have made Ukraine their signature issue. In the U.S., the pols have been giving it a good leaving alone for a year now, other than the big funding push in February. Note that as soon as that bill passed, they changed the subject. In Europe, the political class has made Ukraine a test of their legitimacy. Therefore, when the Ukraine army surrenders, they cannot shrug and move on to other issues.

One of the lessons of the Soviet era was that the accumulation of lies eventually saps even the most repressive regime of legitimacy. The Soviet system fell apart when no one could think of a reason to support it, not even the people at the top of the system who benefitted from it the most. In this way, Ukraine and Covid may be analogous to Afghanistan and Chernobyl. These are events that delegitimize the system by making clear that nothing it says or does is on the level.

Death In Dollars

Posted on June 12, 2024 by thezman

Without much fanfare and no coverage in Western media, one of the most important agreements of the 20th century was allowed to expire last week. That agreement is the deal made between the United States and Saudi Arabia in 1974 that established what has been known ever since as the petro-dollar. Saudi Arabia would price its oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars and invest its surplus oil revenues in U.S. Treasury bonds while the U.S. provided military protection to the kingdom.

The importance of this deal cannot be overstated. The demand for dollars has kept the currency strong and thus kept imports cheap. It also allowed the Federal Reserve to “export excess dollars” to developing countries with a need for dollars. The institutional demand for treasuries as a result of this agreement allowed for the low interest rate environment we have seen for decades. This has made it possible for the United States to build up massive debts both publicly and privately.

Another way to think about this deal is by pricing energy in dollars, the dollar became the default global currency because the dollar was a proxy for energy units. This made the Saudis the head of the mint and the Federal Reserve the global bank. The Saudis could control the flow of energy units around the world, a very profitable position, and the United States could skim from every transaction denominated in dollars, which was every transaction across national borders.

The reason for the lack of coverage of this historic event is two-fold. One is the mass media is now populated by zombies with no agency of their own, so until the regime hands them copy, they have nothing to say. The other is the financial world has no idea where this is going. Five years ago, no one imagined this deal would be allowed to expire, but years of mismanagement by the Biden administration has made a hash of things all over the world.

There is speculation that the Saudis are simply bargaining hard knowing that the Biden admin is desperate. Anthony Blinken is supposedly prepared to offer the Saudis a generous nuclear package, in addition to more military support, in order to continue the relationship, but of course it comes with a catch. The Saudis will have to normalize relations with Israel, something they are loath to do. There is no upside to them making a deal with a regime that routinely slaughters Arabs.

Now, the expiry of this deal does not mean much at the present. Half a century of pricing everything important in dollars will not be unraveled quickly. Tens of trillions in assets are priced in dollars, so the dollar remains the default currency, but it does open the door to alternatives. The Saudis will now accept other currencies for their energy products, which means OPEC will follow their lead. China can now buy oil in yuan, rather than swap yuan for dollars.

In the short-term this will not change much of anything, but over time it will result in a decrease in the demand for dollars. For example, if you trade with China for manufactured goods, it makes sense to trade in the yuan for energy products as it simplifies trade with China. The same is true for the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, and the Brazilian real. Of course, it also means bypassing the American controlled banking system for settling these transactions.

The next shoe to drop in this process is a settlement system that operates outside the control of Washington. Project mBridge is a scheme for creating a digital currency to facilitate cross border transactions. The Saudis have recently joined this project, which is mainly supported by China. The Russians have recently shown interest in the project, despite years of resistance. The trade war launched by Washington has changed opinion in Moscow about dealing with the West.

That is another aspect to this. The Russian economy not only absorbed the sanctions blow, but it has also grown faster than the Western economies. Russia now has the fourth largest economy in the world. Sanctions forced the Russians to do thigs like replace the retail credit card system with their own system. They cleaned up their banking system to root out fraud and corruption. It was an inadvertent test case for creating financial systems outside of Western control.

Again, none of this signal the collapse of the dollar. The people screaming such things have no idea how the world actually works. What we are seeing is the slow decline of the American financial order. The countries that make things, fix things, dig things from the ground and invent things are starting to see that they do not need the countries that merely count things. This is especially true when the people doing the counting have a history of stealing from their customers.

What comes next is the slow decline in the demand for dollars and euros, which will make inflation a feature of Western economies. It will also mean the slow rise in borrowing rates in the West. If the rest of the world needs fewer dollars and euros it means they need fewer bonds denominated in dollars and euros. That leaves Western governments with the choice of cutting spending or printing money, which is the same thing but only less honest.

None of this was inevitable. After the Cold War, the United States could have remained the world’s banker and honest broker. Instead, the economic elites of America allowed the world’s most dishonest people to gain control of foreign policy. They used that power to launch a decades long crusade against their ancient enemies and in the process, they squandered the good name of the American people and destroyed global trust in the United States. Decline is now what must follow.

The Empire Of Lies

Posted on June 11, 2024 by thezman

One of the defining features of this age is the collapse in respect for the spirit of the laws through the reinterpretation of the letter of the law. In every aspect of life, clever schemers are either crafting documents that conceal their intent or they are reinterpreting commonly understood words and phrases so they can claim some new intent behind the words. This is driven not just by a disrespect for the intent behind the words, but a disregard for the very idea of rules.

The spirit of the law, of course, is the intent behind the rule, while the letter of the law is the almost always imperfect implementation of that motivating spirit. Originalism, for example, rests on the assumption that we can know the intent of the Framers when they wrote the Constitution, even if the result is not always clear. Debates over the Second Amendment are a good example. We know what the framers meant by “well-regulated militia” even if it is a vague term today.

Now, the Second Amendment issue is a good reminder that clever tricksters have always been trying to nibble away at the fabric of American society. Disrespect for the spirit of the law is not a new thing. Since the first written laws there have been people trying to twist the written words to get around the intent behind them. It is an argument against having a written constitution. It gives the tricksters an opportunity to play their word games on the trusting public.

The 2A topic, however, shows the limits of such games until recently. Despite their best efforts, the intent behind the Second Amendment has prevailed because the people and the bulk of the ruling class continued to respect the spirit of the law. Even something like abortion rights, which was invented by the court fifty years ago, tried to tie the new entitlement to the prevailing spirit behind the Constitution. Respect for the spirit of the laws is the cornerstone of a civilized society.

That respect has largely vanished over the last few decades. You can probably date it to when Bill Clinton famously tried to claim there was some ambiguity in the word “is” during his famous deposition over the intern business. A decade prior he would have been run out of town for such outlandish behavior, but in the new age where anything goes, the finest people cheered his willingness to find a loophole in the vocabulary in order to slither free of the net.

Of course, the arrival of these grifters from the Ozarks coincided with the arrival of the new managerial man. This is the highly credentialed expert with no practical knowledge, who slithered up the social system by making the right connections, belonging to the right groups, and flattering the right people. These are people who traffic is word play in a world where genuine accomplishment is a liability. Therefore, the better you are at escaping the restraints of the language, the higher you rise.

We have a practical example of this in Ukraine. The Russians have made clear that if NATO forces attack Russian forces from bases in NATO countries, the Russians are then free to attack those NATO bases. By all reasonable measures Russia could treat NATO as a belligerent just for supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine, but they have drawn the line a bit further back. If NATO attacks Russian forces from NATO countries, then Russia will hit these bases.

This presents a problem for NATO, which would like to supply fighter jets to Ukraine, but Ukrainian pilots cannot fly the F-16 and Ukrainian airports cannot host of the planes, due to logistics and the threat of Russian missiles. That means the only way to put the F-16’s into service is to fly them with Western contractors out of NATO bases, but that runs into that Russian red line. So, the tricksters that now dominate the West have set to work on a workaround to this problem.

The solution is this. They will give the planes to Ukraine and then the Ukrainians will decide on their own to keep the planes at NATO bases. When they use these planes, the mercenaries wearing Ukraine patches will then fly the planes to a Ukraine base to be loaded with missiles, then take off from that Ukraine base to attack Russian forces with those missiles. You see, according to the letter of the law, this is not NATO attacking Russia with NATO weapons. It is Ukraine doing it!

Obviously, the Russians are not going to be tricked by such nonsense, but it reveals the thinking of the moral nullities who now dominate the West. Only people with no concept of right and wrong can think such a scheme is acceptable. These are people who always look for a way to slither around the rules by playing word games to evade the spirit behind the written rules. These are people who can talk themselves into anything because they are sure they can talk their way out of anything.

In a high trust society, there is less of a need for putting things in writing as the parties to an agreement come to that agreement trusting that the other party will respect the spirit of the agreement. A handshake agreement works when the men shaking hands trust one another to keep their word and they live in a society that respects the spirit of the law even when the letter of the law is confusing. In that society, writing things down serves only as a reminder to the honest.

In a world dominated by tricksters, who profit from finding ways around the words in order to undermine the sprit those words attempt to capture, the language becomes a weapon wielded by the guilty against the innocent. Notice that the lawfare campaigns all rest on the novel interpretation of the law, in direct contradiction to the spirit behind the laws, or the imaginative use of language to redefine common practices into violations of those newly reimagined laws.

This seems to be an end point of managerialism. In the accelerated lifecycle of fascism, they quickly arrived at a point where clever tricksters like Albert Speer were able to rise to senior positions. After the death of Stalin, the foxes came to dominate the party system to the point where even the people benefitting from it joked about the profound dishonesty of Soviet life. America seems to have arrived at a similar point, where only the naive are shocked by the rampant perfidy.

On the other hand, maybe all empires succumb to the liars who see empire as an opportunity to do their worst. A society held together by force, or the fear of the alternatives is not one that can respect the spirit of the law. As a result, empires may simply select for the sorts of people who eventually subvert the host. Maybe that is what we are seeing with the collapse of social trust. The empire of lies is the final stop for every empire on its way to the dustbin of history.

America Inc.

Posted on June 10, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is a post about grammar robots, a post the general weirdness of dissident politics and the Sunday podcast, which thankfully had nothing to do about Trump or the anti-Trump kooks. Subscribe here or here.

One of the criticisms of the paleoconservatives is that they never got around to formulating an explanation for why the managerial state emerged. They did a good job describing it and how it differed from the straightforward administrative bureaucracies that have been a part of society since Diocletian. How the bureaucracy transitioned from instrument of the ruling elite into a ruling elite itself has remained a bit of mystery, with only some stabs here and there at an explanation.

The fault probably lies with Burnham, who was the first guy to create a political theory from observing the emergence of the managerial system. He wrote his most famous book, The Managerial Revolution, during the Second World War when the Nazis were at the peak of their power. Therefore, his understanding of managerialism was shaped by the militant authoritarianism of it. Burnham was still a communist, so this no doubt played a role in his understanding of managerialism.

The emergence of managerialism in interwar Europe is easy to explain simply by pointing to the conditions that prevailed after the Great War. Fascism emerged on the losing side of the war because of the chaos that emerged as a result of the collapse of the old order and the general lunacy of liberalism and communism as they fought to fill the void left by the old order. Fascism rode the popular demand for a return of order to power in places like German and Italy.

Once in power, the fascists had to actually govern. The existing institutions they inherited were either badly damaged by the war and the post-war chaos or antiquated holdovers from the prior era. Managerialism provided both a blueprint for governing but also a source of authority. Gather up the best people and set them to work rebuilding infrastructure, the economy, and the state. Once they began to make progress, public support for the system provided the necessary legitimacy.

This model for managerialism being a modern, industrial response to both the collapse of the old order and the chaos of the present works pretty well for the emergence of it in communist Russia. The collapse of the tsarist system and the Russian civil war left Russia as a chaotic mess. Into that void flowed Stalin first inside the party and then as something of an industrial age tsar. He gathered up and developed an army of people to manage, govern and control the new Soviet society.

That same process does not work for America, where managerialism emerged at the same time as it did in Europe. Many have noted the parallels between FDR’s New Deal revolution and the emergence of fascism in Europe. Until the war, many New Deal progressives were fans of Mussolini. They never liked Hitler, due to his crudeness and antisemitism, but they liked Mussolini. There was in the 1930’s a great deal of cross pollination between the two systems.

America, however, was not emerging from a failed war and its political order was not destroyed as a result of it. On the contrary, America was remarkably stable in the aftermath of the economic collapse in the 1930’s and the political system seemed to be working very well. There is no doubt that FDR revolutionized the relationship between the citizen and the state during this period, but he did not do so in response to the loss of legitimacy of the old arrangements.

It should also be noted that the managerialism that emerged in America was different from the militaristic version that emerged in the fascist countries, which built upon trench socialism. Similarly, Stalin’s managerialism was a way to recapture the collective spirit of the revolutionary years in which the Bolsheviks finally seized power and won the civil war. The managerial revolution of FDR was softer and an outgrowth of volunteerism of early America.

Therein lies a clue as to why managerialism emerged in America. Through the 19th century, Americans were largely governed by local association. Other than the post office and military service, the typical American had little reason to think about the federal government. It was an abstraction. Even state government played a limited role in his life compared to local government and the community associations that defined the life of most Americans.

The industrial revolution changed America by urbanizing large chunks of the population, thus destroying rule by association for large numbers of people. The shift from industrial work also changed the relationship between the man and his work by making it individualistic rather than communal. The failure of a farmer impacts many more people than the farmer and his family. The failure of a factory worker is a burden only on the worker and his family. Work became a solitary pursuit.

Like the rise of managerialism, the rise of individualism is one of those things that many recognize as a problem, but no can explain. Why all of a sudden did Europeans stop thinking collectively and start thinking individually? Racial solidarity among Europeans was so natural it did not require a vocabulary to describe. Today we have a vast array of labels to describe white ethnic and racial solidarity, despite the fact that it barely exists and only in the virtual reality of the internet.

As work isolated men from one another, the natural response was to think individually and see the man next you as competition. This was obviously good for the factory owner, so work in many cases became a competitive arena, a Hobbesian existence where the owner harnessed this war of all against all to increase productivity, reduce costs and maximize profits. The result was a class of citizen who was no longer defined by community but by alienation from community.

This alienation inevitably led to unhappiness as man is a social animal and evolved to be so within small groups. The emergence of masses of Americans living in big cities fighting one another for wages lead to a disenchantment of the world. The rise of urban political machines was one consequence. Another consequence was a looking inward for spiritual happiness. When community can no longer provide a larger purpose to life, the only option is to seek it individually.

The shift from community man to individual man naturally leads to the individual abandoning his duties to the community. Self-government rests on the assumption that the bulk of the citizens have a moral duty to the whole. Who they are is not just what they have or even what they contribute to the whole. A big part of what defines the community man’s sense of self is the success of his community. Individual man lacks this entirely, so he has no reason to participate.

This is the same void of order into which managerialism flowed in interwar Europe and post-tsarist Russia. The tutelary state that emerged in America in the 20th century was not imposed on an unwilling populace, but simply filled the void left by a growing population of people uninterested in anything outside their window. Urban and now suburban peasants needed the protection of the state because as atomized individuals, they were no longer willing to participate in their own protection.

This is why the state has also become a church of sorts. Much of what the managerial state does is moral guidance. Painting rainbows on crosswalks and then daring anyone to defile them is intended to create sinners so the priests of the system can punish those sinners thus providing the needed moral instruction. What used to be done by community pressure and the local minister is now done by credentialled members of a faceless and remorseless managerial class.

Managerialism is the natural form of government for an industrial people as it mimics the life of the industrial worker. Republican government and aristocratic government reflected the reality of the people, who were primarily organized around communal activities like farming and trade. Twentieth century America turned into a continent-sized business park occupied by one business, American Inc. Like every business, America Inc. needed a management class, so it got one.

The question is can this model survive the post-industrial age? America began to deindustrialize fifty years ago. The old industrial model of governance has tried to adapt to the transition to the information economy, but managing information is vastly more difficult than managing capital and labor. In fact, it may not even be possible to manage information without poisoning the minds of the managers. The current crisis may simply be due to this problem.

On the other hand, it may be that you cannot have a society organized around marshaling data and data frameworks. Perhaps America Inc. is simply a legacy business parasiting off the societies that continue to make things, fix things, dig things from the ground and invent things. Perhaps the end point of managerialism is the same for all antiquated business models. The current crisis is the struggle to avoid the inevitable bankruptcy of the managerial system.

Summer Surprise

Posted on June 7, 2024 by thezman

The real power of the media is the power to ignore, so noticing what they ignore is a good way to get a sense of what is happening in the regime. Sometimes they ignore something because it has no interest to the rulers and sometimes it is just to prevent anyone from discussing it. There are times when the media gives something a good leaving alone because the regime does not know how to respond.

The Trump verdict may be the last option. We had the usual stuff on the day it happened, but then the story sort of just disappeared. There were a few conservative cucks doing their normal cuckery, but otherwise the conservatives followed the crowd, which laughed and jeered the verdict. The kooks even had to accept that this was not going to be the winner they imagined. As a result, the story just died.

One possible reason is the verdict has created more problems for the regime, as no one has any idea what to do about it. The whole point of the lawfare gambit was to scare away Trump’s support or bully him out of the race. Instead, he has bulled his way forward to the nomination and he has more support than ever. Like Project Ukraine, the prophesies have not come true and there is no plan B.

There may be other things going on behind the scenes. There are signs that the people with real power are worried about what is going on and this Trump verdict may simply be another log on the fire. That is the show this week. It is a bit of thinking out loud about what could be going on with our rulers and what sort of surprises they may have for us this summer.