When Prophecy Fails

Posted on June 5, 2024 by thezman

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the logic of the West has rested on the theory that the Russians cannot sustain a long war. In the winter of 2022 the argument was summed up by Francis Fukuyama in this legendarily wrong post. In that post he claimed the Russian army was about to collapse at any minute and maybe take the Putin government down with it. He then followed up on that claim with a similar post, in which he claimed to have been right, amazingly enough.

It is tempting to dismiss Fukuyama as just another brazen hustler that circulates around the managerial class, but he is one of the more successful ones. His famous book, The End of History and the Last Man, was a massive best seller primarily because he pushed all the right buttons for the post-Cold War elites. It was massively successful flattery because the people being flattered believed it. They continue to believe it, which is why they maintain a bellicose foreign policy.

Put another way, these grifters passing themselves off as intellectuals tell us something about the system that hosts them, but also the people they flatter. Fukuyama gets to travel around the empire passing as a sage, because the people hosting him think he is right and that is because they want him to be right. Meanwhile, a guy who has been consistently right, John Mearsheimer, gets called mean names, mostly because he is right and the people calling him names hate him for it.

This blinkered view is how we got the war in Ukraine. This almost religious belief that the triumph of the West in the Cold War was the beginning of the final journey into the promised land, the end of history, has shaped imperial policy, both foreign and domestic, for decades. Fukuyama wrote his book in 1992 and others have been building on it ever since. In his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski argued for the breaking up of Russia to finish the Cold War.

In other words, the war in Ukraine is not something that happened for no reason at all, but rather it is the product of a messianic outlook in the West that has existed since at least the end of the Cold War. In fact, the war looks like it comes right from the Western playbook to undermine and topple the Putin government. This study by the RAND Corporation, the most important think tank in the empire, talks specifically about this type of project as a tool to destabilize Russia.

The point of all this is to properly frame the war as part of the overall belief system of the West, rather than just something that happened for no reason at all. Washington expected this war because they had been planning for it for decades. Even though they were wrong in most of their assumptions, there is no reason to think that belief structure has changed. History shows that believers do not abandon their beliefs when faced with disconfirmation. They just believe harder.

That is important to understand when thinking about what comes next. The micro-countries of NATO are now yapping about war with Russia. Hilariously, tiny Estonia is offering security guarantees to Ukraine. The Estonia military is about the size of the Las Vegas police department and probably just as lethal. Lithuania is now inviting in the Germans to build defensive structures for the assumed Russian attack. Perhaps the Germans will bring their broomsticks with them.

The reason these small players are making these noises is the same reason Fukuyama wrote a book, calling the people he wished to flatter, the deliverers of mankind from the clutches of irrationality. These micro-countries organize their foreign affairs around flattering the powerful. Without NATO, Kaja Kallas is as well-known as the mayor of Wichita, but in NATO she can stand on the big stage, just as long as she tells Washington what they wish to hear.

This is what makes the moment so dangerous. Kallas is a simpleton, but an obsequious simpleton, so she often speaks the truth about her masters. Washington has no plan for ending the war other than the total defeat of Russia, something that can only happen if they launch nuclear weapons. The current debate about letting Ukraine use NATO weapons to attack inside Russia is mostly about normalizing the idea of NATO attacking inside Russia, something the Russians will never tolerate.

Compounding all of this is the fact that Ukraine is slowly being ground down by the Russian war machine. All of Ukraine is now forced to ration electricity. Major cities have long blackouts due to the lack of energy. The Ukraine army is desperate for soldiers, but all of the men have gone into hiding to avoid being grabbed off the streets and sent directly to the front. These raw “recruits” are being trained at the front, which means thrown into a trench with a rifle and a few grenades.

The point is we will soon see something like what Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter described in their study of a UFO cult. Western political leaders have been assured for decades that the promised land lies just after the final disillusion of Russia, which will come any day now. Like the people waiting for the space aliens, they have been waiting for regime change in Russia. Instead, they may be facing angry mobs outside their own palaces as the project collapses.

We live in an age of wonders, but the greatest wonder to be revealed will be when the regime realizes that the future promised to them by the neocons and their fellow travelers was never going to be reality. When the Ukraine army starts to buckle and the politics in Kiev become violent, how will the West react? Will reality suddenly descend upon Washington, or will they do like the cult members in When Prophesy Fails and find some way to internalize it and keep the faith?

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The Use And Abuse of History

Posted on June 4, 2024 by thezman

In the 1976 election, there was a scene at the Republican National Convention that turned out to be a vision of things to come. President Gerald Ford had successfully fended off the primary challenge of Ronald Reagan, but at the convention it was clear that Reagan was the more popular man with the people. The institutional party took the safe route and backed Ford, but at the convention it became clear that the voters were ready to move on from the old guard.

This was largely true of the managerial class in America. Corporate America was pushing for reform against an intransigent old liberal guard. Wall Street wanted changes to the financial system in preparation for the emerging global economy and the looming microprocessor revolution. This book, written in 1976 coincidentally, talked about the looming revolution in economics that was coming with computers. Of course, a sizable chunk of the political class was ready for change.

What the convention revealed was that the public was also ready to move on from the cultural revolution of the 1960’s and the general political and economic stagnation that defined the 1970’s. On other words, the public was in a mood for reform, and they would be willing to take some tough medicine if the right man was put forth to sell them on it. That man was Ronald Reagan, who won the 1980’s election and ushered in the reforms that came to be known as the Reagan Revolution.

There were elements of the institutional left that opposed Reagan. The media called him Hitler, of course, and spent his entire time lying about everything. They invented the concept of homelessness as a counter to the booming economy. The academy was also opposed to Reagan and responded by diving head long into the antecedents of what we now call the woke religion. The Democratic Party remained trapped in the past throughout the decade.

The point of this walk down memory lane is that reform is always a top-down process that begins with elements of the elite either looking around and sensing danger or growing restless with the prior generation of elites. In the 1970’s, there was a little of both as some elites feared the country was headed to a crackup, while others sensed a new day was dawning and the old bulls needed to step aside. Once they found a champion, the reform effort took off.

Fast forward half a century to our time and we can see some of the elements that existed in the middle of the 1970’s. The world is at some sort of inflexion point economically due to the underlying currency arrangements. In the 1970’s the dollar’s status was under assault due to Western incompetence. Today the dollar is under pressure mostly due to Washington perfidy. There are serious efforts to reduce the dollar’s role in the global economy.

You also have a looming demographic change. In the 1970’s the baby boomers were hitting the labor market and the adult economy like a tidal wave. Much of what drove the economic revival was the loosening of the rules so this massive wave of young adults could earn and spend. Today we are at the other end of that long cycle as the baby boomers exit the work force. They are not being replaced. Instead, we have diversity which must be overcome to maintain the economy.

There are a lot of parallels like this. It is the reason that old paleos like Steve Sailer often compare the present to their salad days. Not only does it help explain the present, but it is comforting to think that like the 1970’s, this period of tumult will give way to another great interregnum, a time of relative peace and prosperity where politics gives way to practical pursuits. That certainly sounds comforting but there are some obvious problems with taking the comparison that far.

The first problem, and the main problem, is the country of today is nothing like it was half a century ago in terms of demographics. Instead of having a massive wave of young, smart people ready to build their future about to enter the system, we have a vibrant tide ready to wash away the white middle-class. Demographically, America is like the film World War Z where the new vibrancy is scaling the walls. No one knows what to do about it, other than build the walls higher.

Then you have the fact that there are no signs that any element of the ruling elite is interested in reform. Instead, they look like toadies of a rock band after a long weekend of partying in a fancy hotel. Theirs is a life of self-indulgence and their highest goal is to maintain the system that lets them self-indulge. What passes for an opposition in elite circles is just geezers and their dim-witted acolytes chanting catch phrases that ceased to resonate half a century ago.

Now, not all things are discussed openly. It is possible that behind closed doors in the elite institutions there are top men working the problem. Perhaps they think AI is the analog to the microprocessor. Maybe it is genetics that will be the revolutionizing force of this coming epoch of reform. It is also possible that those are just more overhyped items in an economy that has been running on hype for decades. Elon Musk is the world’s richest man because he is the biggest hype man.

Even if there is something happening behind the scenes with the revolutionary potential of the microprocessor, where is the Ronald Reagan in the political system to sell the changes that must come with it? Where is the socio-political movement that could produce a salesman like Reagan? The political class now looks like that expensive hotel room the elites partied in all weekend. It is a scene full of sadness and memories of better days that now seem long gone.

You can probably take this a bit further and suggest that Trump was the elites vehicle to make the needed changes to stave off crisis. Despite his faults, he is an oddly charismatic figure, who has wanted nothing more than to be embraced by the ruling elite of his country. He would have been a great pitchman for a renewal, but the system has treated him like an alien virus. Imagine if Reagan had been arrested at the 1976 convention instead of cheered.

Historical parallels are often used to inspire a pursuit of future greatness and sometimes they are used to command a return to past habits. We see both in this age as old men like Joe Biden feebly mumble about the glorious future. We see slightly less feeble old men chanting about a return to past principles. There is a third way to use history and that is to show that the present does not have a comforting analog in the past and therefore we are on our own to sort our future.

That is where the West finds itself now. Those who will make the future will first have to close the door on the past. The challenges of the demographic age have no corollary in the past, so the solution, if one exists, does not live in the past. Put another way, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and John Paul II are not walking through that door, so there is no point in leaving it open. The only reason for understanding the past is to know that it is not the future.

The Revelatory State

Posted on June 3, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is the final review of and commented upon the Planet of the Apes franchise, a post about roots and leaves and the Sunday podcast, which was all about the Trump trial. Subscribe here or here.

Political science claims to have sorted the various types of political systems that have existed and could exist in the world. As a practical matter this means reducing Aristotle’s list of regimes down to “our democracy” and “fascism.” What is called “our democracy” looks nothing like democracy and it has long ago lost its liberalism. As Paul Gottfried noted many years ago, we now live in post-liberal societies. The trouble is, we lack a label that seems to fit what we are seeing.

The reason we lack a label is our socio-political system is amazingly good at disguising itself by shifting focus away from how it acts onto something else. Every month brings the official celebration of some designated victim group. There are many remembrance days for bad things that may or may not have happened. Of course, there is the perpetual foreign bogeyman who threatens our democracy. Russia is currently the bogeyman, but China is warming in the bullpen.

One way of thinking about our socio-political system is to imagine a Protestant minister who had a vision of some sort. Maybe he got a glimpse of a dreadful future or perhaps a new path to enlightenment. He then sets about telling everyone he can find about his vision and what he thinks it means. Of course, he just assumes his vision requires him to tell the world about that vision and what it means. No one ever has a vision that requires them to keep quiet about it.

Now, imagine hundreds of such people working in the institutions having hundreds of these visions. Instead of one eccentric minister claiming to have received a message from God, it is hundreds of mediocrities working in offices around the country claiming to have found some new bogeyman or maybe some new path to the assumed end point of human existence. Every day is spent hashing out these visions in the marketplace of visions and visionaries.

This sounds a bit wacky but consider the fact that it is rare to see a product sold on its features and benefits. Even the most mundane products are sold based on their alleged benefit to some cause or your moral benefit. No event is just presented as it is, but instead it is cast as part of a morality tale. A person cannot simply be famous for something like kicking a ball around or singing a song. Instead, he must claim that his fame is in service to a cause.

In all of this is the turmoil of competing revelations. June is now called “pride month” for things that up until recently did not exist. There have always been male and female homosexuals, of course, but their private acts were kept private. The concept of “coming out” is a novelty that brings with it normative claims. Somewhere, someone had a vision that said the path to the promised land is through elevating this tiny minority to the top of the social order.

The market for visions and visionaries is like all other markets, so it did not take long before imitators were on the scene. Lesbian and gay, the L and G of the now famous initialism has been joined by Bisexual, Transgender, Intersex, Queer/Questioning, Asexual and other, which gets the plus sign for some reason. It turns out that the commodification of sexual deviance has its limits. The next guy or gal with a sexual vision will be stuck with the plus sign.

While much of this stuff seems novel, and much of it is recently invented, the practice of inventing new normative claims is not new. We see it with the various alien bogeymen conjured over the last three decades. The Muslims could not be left to be Muslims in their own lands. They had to submit to this thing called liberal democracy, a thing that does not exist, but when it did exist, it prohibited the imposition of alien socio-political forms on people who rejected them.

Think back to the Bush years and the crusades against the Muslims sounded like Protestant ministers talking about converting the savages. As if my magic, everyone in Washington got it into their heads that the world was at risk unless the Muslims accepted liberal democracy. Put another way, someone, or a group of someone’s, had this revelation and convinced the rest that it was true. Those who did not accept it as a revelation were packed off to the outer darkness.

We now hear the same sorts of sermons about the Russians, except this time the doubters are accused of cavorting with Old Scratch. Suddenly, all the best people are filled with righteous anger at Russia and determined to defeat this enemy in a holy crusade called Project Ukraine. Next up is China, a country all of these people admired until they started having visions about China doing bad things. The gods have spoken and now it is time to act.

The origin of this crusader mindset can be dated to the abolitionist movement when all of a sudden, northern Protestants decided that slavery was a sin, even though Scripture seems to be fine with slavery. Not only was slavery a sin, but the slaver was an irredeemable sinner, and he must be destroyed. Why all of a sudden did masses of people have this shared vision? No one knows because no one asks, just as no one asks why all the best people now say “Keev.”

That is the other feature of the revelation state. Once the vision finds a market, no one bothers to question it. In the revelation state, novel moral claims go from inconceivably strange to irrefutably true in the blink of an eye. Homosexual marriage is the best example of how a joke became holy writ overnight. No one ever asked how this happened as to do so could suggest it does not belong in the catechism, which is a good way to get hurled into the void.

That is another feature of our socio-political system. It demands total, unconditional submission to its moral claims. It is never enough to agree on most things or be indifferent to some things. You are either one hundred percent in tune with the prevailing morality or you face annihilation. The sinners are forced to confess their sins, but always face punishment, no matter how much they grovel. Absolution is arbitrary, but confession is mandatory.

This revelatory aspect of the American ruling class does not explain everything, but it is one aspect of the system. The socio-political system that emerged after Gettysburg was built on the pre-ideological fanaticism that animated abolitionism. In time it seems to have become an ideology all its own. For most of the 20th century it was held in check by practical necessity, but now it has been unleashed and the result is decades of increasingly deranged revelations.

What we may be seeing is the end of a long sociological arc that began in the 19th century with the Great Awakening. Lots of pundits have compared the present to past Protestant fervors, but they snicker in their sleeve and move on. Instead, what we may be witnessing is not echoes of the past but the final end point of a trend that started in that period, mutated along the way into the final virus we see today. The revelatory state may be the logical end point of the Great Awakening.

Peaceful Separation

Posted on May 29, 2024 by thezman

How best to govern a diverse population is a part of the subtext of public political debates in America, mostly because no one is permitted to debate the orthodoxy on immigration, so America gets more diverse every day. This is treated as a novelty that only the best minds in the managerial elite can tackle. In reality, humans have been dealing with diversity since the first human settlements. It turns out that there are only five solutions to the problem posed by diversity.

The most common way of dealing with the problem of diversity is also the oldest way of dealing with diversity. That is for the dominant tribe to subjugate or even eradicate the alien tribes from their land. The people of one place finally get the upper hand over the people adjacent to them and wipe them out. Alternatively, the main identity group in the newly formed society compels the minorities to adopt their identity. Wiping out diversity is the oldest cure for diversity.

The trouble is it rarely works, especially when you are dealing with large numbers of people in tight communities. The Israelis are trying to drive off the Arabs in Gaza, even going so far as to deliberately massacre civilians, but they are no closer to pushing out the Arabs than when they started their genocidal campaign against them. Even with modern tools, it is extremely hard to remove a large population. It is possible, but in this age, even the Israelis cannot get away with it.

That leaves the four more civilized options. One is to simply keep the various identity groups apart to reduce friction. This was common in the northern cities of the United States into the 20th century. The old neighborhood system that is romanticized today used to be rigorously policed by the authorities to make sure blacks were not going into Italian areas and vice-versa. Keeping the peace meant keeping the groups as separate as possible from one another.

In the South there was a soft version of segregation. Diversity primarily meant blacks, who were systematically segregated from whites in largely symbolic ways. Blacks and whites could share public spaces, but had to maintain separation, even if it were mostly symbolic like riding in the back of the bus. This performative segregation was to reinforce the notion that the two races could never mix. Segregation became a habit of mind, rather than physical separation.

Both of those effective and popular systems were overthrown by the managerial elite in favor of the chaos of the present. This system does not have a catchy name, like segregation or Jim Crow, but proportionalism will do. The system of rights that had been the basis of America society was abandoned in favor of egalitarian ideals to which the elites make exceptions in order to achieve what they arbitrarily see as a proportional outcome among the various tribes of America.

The growing tyranny that must come from such a system is what is driving the academic debates about the civil rights revolution and the rear guard action to hold the line against DIE programs in the institutions. Of course, the people responsible for this disaster are not interested in altering course. They are especially uninterested in the fourth option which is to not manage the diversity at all. This was the way America managed diversity through most of the 19th century.

A good example of this is in this interesting post about an old house by one of the professors in that linked video. He bought an old farmhouse and got curious about its history, so he did the research. It turns out that his house has a diverse history that reflects the way diversity was managed in early America. Basically, people were left to sort themselves out as best they could, which generally meant peaceful separation when peaceful cohabitation was not possible.

As pointed out in that post, who people are, in terms of their primary identity, is how they live, and no amount of downward force can change it. This is why the path of proportionalism as practiced by our tyrants must lead to that first and oldest option for dealing with diversity. They are trying to wipe out whiteness, by which they mean white people, through a campaign of cultural genocide, along with the importation of nonwhites in numbers no society can sustain.

The trouble is that wiping out even a small minority is difficult. Purging America of “whiteness” when most of the population is white and determined to live as they prefer, in the teeth of the cultural pogroms, is impossible. This brings us to the irreconcilable contradiction that lies at the heart of the current crisis. For the ruling elite to remain the currently constructed ruling elite they must continue with proportionalism, even though it must fail and lead to their eventual overthrow.

What all of this points to is both a solution to the current tyrannical regime and the challenge of diversity. Because whites will remain the largest population and will increase their self-segregation in response to their shrinking majority and the cultural assault on them from the elites, the racial tyranny must collapse. Put another way, the old solution of self-sorting, the habit of frontier America, will be the rocks upon which the racial tyrants will be destroyed.

This may seem overly optimistic, but the reality is the current regime is fighting human nature, which is undefeated in fights of this sort. Ideology, and the racialized politics of this age are ideological, is hostile to human nature. Communism did not fail due to technical errors. It failed because it was inhuman. The same is true of the racial ideology of the managerial class. Peaceful separation is the natural state of Americans, and it will be it natural order again.

Trump The Elephant

Posted on May 28, 2024 by thezman

Mary was a five-ton Asian elephant that performed at a circus, until she went berserk and killed one of her handlers. For some reason, the otherwise gentle beast attacked the handler on his second day of work. She picked him up with her trunk, hurled him against a wall and then stepped on his head. The circus owner decided that the right thing to do was to hold a public execution of the elephant for the crime of having murdered the elephant handler. The elephant was then hanged.

This strange story happened in 1916 in rural Tennessee, and it is a good way to think about what is about to happen in a New York City courtroom. This week the jury will get the Trump case with instructions by the judge to convict. This trial and the behavior of the people running it is like the execution of a circus elephant. It is about vengeance, rather than justice. The circus owner hanged Mary the elephant to satisfy the lust for vengeance and the conviction of Trump is for the same purpose.

The trial of Trump has nothing to do with the law. He paid a lawyer to make a problem go away, which happens all the time in America. The claim here is that it was booked incorrectly by his accounting department. The trial was never about the alleged accounting error. It was an excuse to humiliate a man that the judge, the prosecutors, the media and most likely the jury think deserves to be punished just as the locals thought Mary the elephant needed to be punished.

There have always been two sides to punishment. The one we like to think is our motivation is side that seeks to discourage future bad behavior. We want the criminal punished so he and others will not commit future crimes. That is a pleasant thought, but in reality, most of the time punishment is about vengeance. The person who harmed us and is causing harm is what the masses detest the most. Low morality revolves around those things that harm people, society, and our beliefs.

Ironically, this is why the “best” people have relished the seedy details of this trial and now prepare to celebrate the guilty verdict. Joe Biden is set to give an Oval Office speech once the verdict is read. The reason for this is the managerial class has the morality of a servant, despite their control of the institutions of power. They look at Trump as someone who harmed them, their system of rule and their beliefs, so as far as they are concerned, he is evil and must be punished.

The Trump phenomenon has provided an interesting insight into the psychology of the managerial elite. Despite their pretensions and their control of the institutions, they are still motivated by a low form of morality. That starts with what the weak always fear, which is harm done to them by those with power. Theirs is the slave morality which is rooted in paranoia, distrust, and fear. Being a good person, therefore, means not causing those reactions among the servant class.

It makes sense as the managerial elite are not powerful in the convention way in which we think of power in a society. They are the product of a system that empowers the servant of the owner, rather than their own accomplishments. You rise in this system by pleasing those above you and managing your horizontal relations. No can ever reach a place of independence within the system as the system is built upon interlocking relationships within the institutions.

This is the difference between an owner and a manager. The CEO of a company is not truly powerful because he must answer to the owners. The power he wields is on behalf of the people who granted him that power. Those people have power due to their own deeds, so their source of power is internal rather than external. Further, that CEO must always fear being replaced by someone below him. The manager must always be paranoid and fearful of everyone around him.

Trump, of course, is not a product of the managerial system. He is in many respects the abnegation of that system. Rather than getting rich and famous through a system of interlocking dependencies, he got rich building big, complicated buildings and famous by being good on television. Trump, for all his faults, is his own man and this is the not just the opposite of managerial man, it is the nullification of him. It is the existence of Trump that terrifies the managerial class, not his ideas.

This is the other cause for managerial rage over Trump. He has choices because his power is internal. He did not have to run in 2016 and he does not have to run in 2024, but he chose to for his own reasons. Everyone involved in the case against Trump depends to a great degree on the decisions of others. They have bosses or they have a career that comes with normative demands. The judge has to act in a certain way in order to remain in good standing.

That is a key difference between the owner and the manager. The owner can separate himself from the manager, but the manager can never separate from the owner without losing all of his status. The owner makes choices based on what he thinks is best, while the manager makes choices based on that fear of losing his position. The reason the slave resents the master is the same reason the manager resents the owner. It is why the managerial class despises Trump.

There is a related motivation here. The managerial class does not just see themselves as functionaries managing the system. They see themselves as something like a priestly class that dictates the happiness of the people. This is especially true in the media which has the greatest loathing for Trump and his fans. These are people whose power rests solely on dictating what is morally right and wrong. They sit in the judgment of everyone, even the truly powerful.

The reason for this is the power of priestly class rests on their framing of good and evil, which always places them on the side of the good. They prove this by pretending to live the purest of lives according to the morality they impose. Note how our managerial elite is always preaching about things like the climate, race, our democracy, and other parts of the progressive catechism. Our managerial class is the clergy, and the elites see themselves as the high priests.

There is no one who enjoys vengeance more than the priest. The suffering of the wicked is the greatest joy to the truly righteous. For the managerial class, punishing those who transgress and seeing them suffer is their reward. It is why the media love ruining people. It makes them feel like Aquinas relishing the image of the damned writhing in the pits of hell. This is why this case matters so much. The managerial priests will get to see a wicked man suffer.

This returns us to Mary the elephant. The people who wanted to see the elephant hanged were not demanding it for practical reasons. They were weak people who lived in fear and the elephant came to represent that fear. Killing the animal by public hanging was an act of piety. It represented the triumph of their sense of justice, which is always expressed as vengeance by those who see themselves as weak. They killed the elephant as an act of revenge.

That is the point of this trial. The managerial class wants revenge on Trump for violating their taboos and holding a mirror up to their system. Vengeance is the product of revenge and revenge is the result of resentment. The managerial class resents men like Trump as a part of their organizing ethos. By running for president, he became the slave owner who came down to party with the slaves in the slave quarters. His actions remind them of their status as slaves.

In the end, that is the point of the Trump phenomenon. Despite his populist rhetoric, Trump is an aristocrat of the old sort. He is a self-made man. The question he poses is will we and can we be ruled by the servants of aristocrats or will they fail and be replaced by the natural aristocracy. Can you have a society ruled by people controlled by resentment for the natural elite? That is the question Trump poses. Whether they hang him or not, the question must be answered.

The Total State

Posted on May 27, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is a series of posts on the original Planet of the Apes films, which I watched and reviewed. There was no Sunday podcast due to the holiday, but it will return next week. Subscribe here or here.

If you are of a certain age and inclination, reading The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies, a new book by Auron MacIntyre, feels like a trip down memory lane to a time when you were discovering the major figures of what would eventually be called paleoconservatism. The text is filled with references to Carl Schmidt, Machiavelli, Vilfredo Pareto, James Burnham, Paul Gottfried, Sam Francis, and other figures who feature prominently in the paleo subculture.

That is the first way to approach this book as the writer was by his own account a garden variety conservative until a few years ago. That means he accepted the neoconservative foreign policy claims, the libertarian economics, and the civic nationalism of the Buckley crowd. The Trump years, the 2020 election and Covid forced him to reevaluate that way of framing politics. Working in the media, he also witnessed firsthand the corruption and mendacity of the fifth estate.

Judging from the number of references to Covid and how often it is used as an example in making points about what he calls the Total State, it is fair to assume that the mass panic and group think within the managerial class during Covid is what sent the writer on his journey out of civic nationalism. The state’s willingness and ability to trample the idea of a rights-based society in the name of public health, along with the media cheerleading, broke the spell of civic nationalism.

What followed was a crash course in the ideas of the “alternative right” as Paul Gottfried used to call it before that term was anathematized. The result is this book which can be read as an intellectual journey. Ideas common in dissident circles were new and amazing in their ability to explain what was happening during Covid. The enthusiasm MacIntyre has for the material will surely bring back memories for older readers who recall experiencing this material in their youth.

Another way of reading this book is as a summary, a Cliff Notes version, of managerialism and the managerial state. MacIntyre borrows the title of the book from Carl Schmidt, who called this form of government der Totalstaat, which translates into English as the Total State. He could also have used the term Sam Francis used, Leviathan, or simply the managerial state. All roughly mean the same thing, which is the all-encompassing corporate state.

Read this way, this book is an excellent primer for the person who is embarking on a journey out of civic nationalism. MacIntyre covers all the important bits using accessible language and recent examples, like the Covid panic. He makes good use of references to the pantheon of stars that make up the paleo constellation but does so in a way that does not require the reader to know about these people. It is an introduction to other modes of conservative thought and the topic of managerialism.

Still another way to approach this book is as the down payment on the long overdue project of building an alternative intellectual framework. What passes for the right in America was not much more complicated than saying, “not so fast” to the schemes dreamed up by the people we call the left. The closest anyone came to building an alternative moral framework was Sam Francis who died before he could finish is magnum opus, Leviathan and Its Enemies.

In his review of The Total State, Greg Hood suggests this might be the start or a restart of that project as MacIntyre is not just a nobody on the internet. He is a member of the so-called conservative media with access to influencers allowed to operate unmolested on the public stage. He regularly turns up on television during elections and has mainstream guests on his show. MacIntyre dusting off these ideas from a perch within mainstream media could be the start of the project.

There could be something to this as there is a gold rush right now to find something to replace Buckley-style conservatism. There are formal efforts like Yoram Hazony’s National Conservatism project and the Claremont Institute. There are informal efforts among online content creators, the sort of people I called Cosmos and those Dave Green calls the LinkedIn Right. There are lots of people searching for a New Right and perhaps they discover a new ideological framework.

The book is not without its flaws, of course. MacIntyre mentions Curtis Yarvin too many times and one is counted as one too many. Yarvin simply has no place in a serious discussion about politics or political theory. Maybe his name was dropped because he is reportedly Peter Theil’s court jester or maybe MacIntyre thinks this is a useful reference point for his intended audience. Regardless, seeing Yarvin’s name turn up in anything is like discovering a hair in your soup.

That aside, another quibble is one it inherits from paleoconservatism and that is it cannot explain why managerialism exists. Burnham noticed that it first appeared in fascist systems. Later writers observed that communism was also good soil for the growth of managerialism. Now we see American-style liberal democracy has also been overtaken by bourgeois managers. This is hardly an accident, but paleos have never produced an explanation for it.

That leads to another quibble that also comes from the paleo space. MacIntyre cannot provide an answer for what to do about it. He finished his book with three possible ends for The Total State. One is it staggers on due to a monopoly of power. Another is it is replaced by a strong man of some sort. The final option, the one MacIntyre prefers, is that it slowly dies from its own internal contradictions. Note that none of these lead to any action against the managerial system.

That was always the flaw of paleoconservatism. It was a call to inaction in the face of perpetual revolution from the top. You cannot build a political movement on a foundation that calls for hiding out in the basement until the storm passes. Even if the storm passes, what comes next will not be the work of those who choose inaction in the face of danger, but by those who have a platform that calls for action in pursuit of something different and better than hoping for nicer weather.

In the end, the judgment of any book is whether it did what it set out to do, not what could have or should have done according to the critics. When approached by any of the angles above, The Total State accomplishes the goal of the author. It is a book for those who would like a fuller understanding of the terms commonly used in dissident circles and for the people looking for a path out of the banality of what passes for conventional conservatism.

The Real Idiocracy

Posted on May 22, 2024 by thezman

There has been a lot written and said about the decline of intelligence in the Western world, mostly focused on the Idiocracy side of it. Everyday life is getting dumber, compounded by the demographic collapse. Basic processes can easily turn into an ordeal due to stupid people tasked with operating systems that were designed for operators a standard deviation smarter than the current crop. What no one thinks too much about is how this collapse in IQ is impacting the elites.

The dream of the managerial class is to establish themselves as an unassailable aristocracy that rules over a docile population of workers. It is why they favor open borders and mass migration as it provides an unlimited supply of what they imagine to be their ideal helot class. Even if there are pockets of smart challengers out there among the teaming masses, they will be too busy dealing with diversity to organize an opposition to the managerial elite.

This is a good place to start with the decline of elite intelligence. It is not as if we lack data on this sort of arrangement. The end of colonialism in Africa, for example, is a great example of how quantity has a quality of its own. Millions of 80-IQ Africans were able to overthrow thousands of high-IQ Europeans. Today we see something similar as the Mizrahi slowly push aside the Ashkenazim in Israel. They are not as smart as their European tribesman, but they have numbers.

Israel is another good example of what happens to a society when the intelligence of the ruling elite begins to fade. For a couple of generations Israel has skillfully manipulated regional politics and controlled Washington so as to dictate results throughout the Middle East. With the Gaza operation they have shown themselves to be suddenly thumbless. The Israeli government has turned a tragic event into a crisis that threatens its existence.

Of course, we see the other side of this in America. The people running foreign policy used to know how to keep Israel on a leash. The Israeli lobby was constrained by the Jewish economic elite that largely controls the imperial economy and the neocons who control imperial foreign policy. The former cared primarily about controlling the global economy from their perch in New York and the latter cared primarily about their ancient blood feud with Russia from their perch in Washington.

The Biden administration has managed to make Israeli incompetence and obstreperousness worse by failing to deal firmly with Netanyahu. The result is the pathetic scene of the American military building a dock to supply Gaza with food and water while the IDF blows up schools and hospitals. Add in the bungling of diplomacy in the region, primarily with the Saudis, and the American empire is on the cusp of losing all of its influence in the region.

The clueless bungling with regards to Israel is not confined to the realm of geopolitics, but also turns up domestically. The Jewish lobby used to operate in the shadows, nudging key figures behind the scenes to influence policy. Now it sends out simpletons like Ben Shapiro to demand the genocide of Palestinians. The actors hired to play the role of office holders are marched out to read ham-fisted scripts about Israel and propose laws that manage to offend decent Americans.

It is not just with regards to Israel where things are going sideways. There used to be a time when the Anglo side of the imperial ruling class understood the reality of the neocons and kept them under control. The last gasp of this, ironically, was during the Obama years. Maybe it was that Anglo blood running through the veins of the mulatto mafia that ran the Obama White House, but they did manage to broker a deal with Iran and avoid getting sucked into any new wars.

That barrier to neocon excess has collapsed, along with whatever intelligence that remained within the neocon cult. The result is foreign policy is now run by a pair of slovenly imbeciles who sit atop the Kagan cult. One reason for the Israel debacle is the commitment to Project Ukraine, which itself is becoming a catastrophe that promises to overwhelm the European part of the American empire. It is impossible to overstate the stupidity required to think Project Ukraine was a good idea.

The people who think open borders and mass migration are going to lock in their position also think Project Ukraine is a winner and marching the political actors out on stage to swear allegiance to Israel is a good idea. They also thought it was a good idea to fling open the prisons so black criminals can run wild in the streets. They thought the proper response to general unrest among the white population was to unleash demographic hell on the white middle-class.

It is debatable as to just how much of the general decline in intelligence is attributable to the decline in the European population and how much of it is a consequence of the demographic collapse. This is a big, complicated subject, but what matters most is the general intelligence of the ruling class. If the ruling class is dominated by and controlled by the smart fraction and that smart fraction is rooted in the overall population then society can survive a drop in IQ.

If on the other hand, as we are seeing, the ruling class prides itself on being alien and hostile to the population and begins to exclude the smart fraction, even its own smart fraction, then the consequences for society will be catastrophic. It turns out that the real idiocracy is not with the general population but among the people who control the institutions of society. When the people in charge hire people like this to play the role of elected representative, the end is near.

Digital Man

Posted on May 20, 2024 by thezman

Note: Behind the green door is a post about the farcical nature of the young online right, a post about the looming summer of hate that is upon us and the Sunday podcast. Subscribe here or here.

Since the dawn of the digital age there has been commentary about the impact the digital age will have on society. Mostly it comes from how we will do things as technology seeps into every nook and cranny of life. Little attention has been paid to who will be controlling things. It has always been assumed that the social structures and selection pressures within them will remain the same, so the new technology will simply be a new tool for the old ruling class.

In the most general sense this is clearly not true. The oligarchs that rose up out of Silicon Valley are a different breed of oligarch from those who rose up in the last decades of the industrial revolution. The latter were the product of an American empire on the rise while the former were the product of an empire at its peak. The industrial age oligarchs were a part of creating the American empire while the tech oligarchs were taking advantage of an existing empire.

Putting aside the nature of the new oligarchs, the nature of the managerial class that actually runs the empire has changed as well. The type of person who slithers his way up into senior positions is different from the old managerial elite. The top officials in government a generation ago, for example, were the product of different selection pressures than those of today. A generation ago, deeds still counted for something in the competition for status within the meritocracy.

Look around at the people running foreign policy now and you cannot help but notice that they are not exceptional at anything. It is one of the things that makes a guy like John Mearsheimer jump off the screen in the geopolitical debate. In addition to having been right about most things over the last twenty years, he is an immensely talented, intelligent, and confident man. By comparison, Anthony Blinken and Victoria Nuland come off as dull and confused.

As technology has changed society, the selection pressure for the managerial elite has also changed. The legacy pressures that produced a guy like Mearsheimer have been replaced with new mechanisms that produce men like Blinken. These pressures start much further down the development cycle than the institutions. It reflects the changes in the culture brought about by technology. All along the way, technology plays a role in how men acquire status within the social system.

A simple way to think about how this works may be to think about the broad categories of young males that existed in the analog age versus the digital age. The three buckets for young males were the gymnasium, the library, and the playground. The first was for the jocks who were attracted to structure and competition. The second was for the bookish who were attracted to learning and knowledge. The final category was for the typical young male who generally like socializing.

In the analog age, the managerial elite drew from the gymnasium and the library, the doers, and the thinkers. The American empire was the product of men who produced new ideas and those who found a way to make those ideas into reality. The oligarchs who rose up in the industrial age used their wealth to underwrite the scholarly and cultural side of the house. Libraries, universities, and cultural centers naturally attracted investment from the new oligarchs.

The digital age changed how young males live and as a result it changed how the social systems selected for talented young males. That playground group suddenly had new toys to use in their socialization. Instead of kicking a ball around, they participated in highly structured and highly complex digital gameplay. Instead of sorting social standing on the playground, it was done in the virtual world of gaming, online chat rooms and social media. Most important, these became valuable skills.

Look around at the public square and the biggest influencers are not old smart guys or highly accomplished guys, but young guys raised online. None of them were jocks or even played sports. Many have no accomplishments at all in the meat space. They are not experts in a cognitive field. On the other hand, they are not the basement dwelling weirdos their critics claim. They enjoy competition, just the online version. They know things that are important to success online.

The new generation of social influencers are an extreme example of a process that has been going on since the dawn of the microprocessor revolution. Technology changed the value relationship between these three male roles. The skills useful on the playground, now the virtual playground, have become more important than the skills acquired in the gymnasium or the library. The critics in the 1970’s were correct when they said it was the nerds who would eventually rule.

Now, some will say it is the longhouse, the feminization of society that is the root of this transformation, but it looks more like it was technology that made the longhouse possible by changing the selection pressure away from knowledge and deeds to the social skills of the digital space. Because so much of what makes up digital society is useful only because we pretend it is so, it means it is not subjected to the crucible of practical necessity, so convincing everyone it matters is what counts.

Social media is a great example of something that people think is important only because everyone they know thinks it is important. Imagine you refuse to go on these platforms and just live your life in meat space. Then someone starts a viral campaign against you on Twitter. What happens to you? Nothing happens because you will remain blissfully unaware of it. In other words, Twitter matters to the people on Twitter because they pretend it matters.

From childhood on up, the skills that are the most useful in the digital world are not those acquired in the library or the gymnasium. It is the weird, androgynous social skills learned in the digital playground. These define teenage social status and then professional status. Now we are seeing them define managerial class status structures, including the managerial elite. What powers the longhouse is the microprocessor that changed the people in the longhouse.

Not only are the skills from the gymnasium and the library falling in status, but the playground skills have changed as well. The digital playground is not like the analog playground where you can get punched in the nose for violating the rules or challenging the wrong guy. On the digital playground your character dies and you respawn at a lower level or maybe you have to create a new character. There is never any real consequence to failure on the digital playground.

This is where feminization comes into the discussion. It has been assumed that the feminization of society is the product of the feminist movement, the explosion of women in the workplace or the number of single mother households. In other words, generations of men raised by women made men soft. In reality, it is at least one and maybe two generations of men socialized like girls on the digital playground that has made the longhouse a natural home for the new man.

In fairness, not all males have been raised on the digital playground. Young men still play organized sports and they still read books. The real playground still exists where young boys learn how to be young men. Elite culture, however, no longer selects for the traits learned in these areas. Instead, it is the traits acquired on the digital playground that offer the pathway to the higher reaches. By the standards of the digital age, Nick Fuentes is the quintessential digital man.

The New Jew Thing

Posted on May 16, 2024 by thezman

The one thing the critics of Elon Musk have right is that after his takeover of Twitter, now stupidly called X, the amount of anti-Jewish material has increased. Not all of it should be called antisemitic, as much of it is anti-Israel and anti-Zionist, but the antisemites have been given far more room to operate. Musk restored the man who has to be the current frontrunner for the Jerusalem Post’s antisemite of the year award, Nick Fuentes, to the platform recently, which has had the predictable results.

No doubt, Elon Musk simply thinks these things will sort themselves over time and there is no reason to stifle speech in the name of guarding the feelings of those who are always on alert for a discouraging word, but it is also true that it has resulted in far more genuinely antisemitic content on the platform. The question is whether this is just a burst of energy due to newfound freedom or does it reflect a change in attitude regarding Jews and their place in American society.

The place to start is this post by someone calling himself Will Chamberlain and the response from someone calling himself Aaron Renn. The former is a Jewish political activist, and the latter is a Protestant involved in religious activism. The topic of the exchange is something the great John Derbyshire observed a million years ago when he wrote a review of Kevin MacDonald’s infamous book. Derb introduced the idea of the “Jew Thing”, which afflicts right-wing people.

It is true that for some reason a certain segment of the right is susceptible to the Jew Thing and when exposed to it they go crazy with it. For most it is a short fever that eventually breaks leaving them with an additional set of tools to help understand what is happening in the world. For others it becomes a lifelong obsession that takes over their life in the same way that drug dependency can take over a life. They wake up thinking about Jews and go to bed thinking about Jews.

That may be what is happening with the volume of anti-Jewish material we see on Twitter, now stupidly called X. This subculture has some room to breathe on a big public platform, so it is party time. This happened in the olden times when social media was called Usenet and there was little moderation. In fact, this subculture was a pioneer in building online communities. Don Black built one of the first genuine online communities back in the early 1990’s and it is still going.

What happened in the old days is self-segregation. People with narrow interests, built communities around those interests because they did not want to interact with people who did not share their interests. It also meant that people dedicated to opposing certain topics, built walls and fences around their communities to keep out the people they claimed to oppose. That is probably what will happen with Twitter, now stupidly called X, once the harpies discover the block option.

There is another option. One obvious difference between this wave of the Jew Thing and prior waves is this one is much younger and simplistic. In the old days, people afflicted with the Jew Thing would spend much of their time working out the details of the Jew Thing, often by reading books written by fellow sufferers or by interacting inside those narrow online communities. They spent only a small portion of their time proselytizing to the masses about the Jew Thing.

This new wave is the opposite. It is not an intellectual movement. These are not people reading and discussing Kevin MacDonald. They are not writing long rebuttals to Nathan Cofnas, as they have never heard of him. Instead, they spend their time posting the early life of everyone they think may be Jewish in the timeline of everyone they think needs to hear the news about the Jew Thing. In other words, this wave may not be bigger, but it may be much louder.

Again, most people who catch the Jew Thing recover and simply come away with an understanding of how group loyalty works inside a pluralistic society. In a way, the Jew Thing is like Covid, in that those who recover, and most do, come away knowing that it will not kill you but the people warning about it certainly will, so it is best to be on your guard at all times. This may be what happens with the people currently caught up in the current epidemic of the Jew Thing.

Of course, this could be another symptom of late phase empire. The most famous outbreak of the Jew Thing was in the last century when the old imperial order in Europe collapsed in the wake of the Great War. Once the old mental frameworks collapsed, people could look around and see things they never saw in the past. This stunning emergence of reality and the chaos brought about by the collapse of the old order led people to embrace new narratives.

That could be what is happening now. The American empire is in decline and people feel that things are no longer in good order. Young people, as is always the case in societal decline, feel the tremors of collapse first. That could explain why this new epidemic of the Jew Thing is hitting the Zoomers. The world is not as they were trained up to expect and this disconfirmation is resulting in a disassociation with the old ways, opening the mind to the Jew Thing as an alternative framework.

Another thing that supports that last possibility is that the regime seems to be struggling to contain this outbreak. In the past, they would have pressured Musk into cracking down on this material and we would have seen a coordinated campaign to purge the afflicted from the public square. The ADL forced Musk to visit the pile of shoes, but it did not take, which suggests something has changed. Maybe this epidemic is more than just a replay of the past and something new is happening.

The Cosmo Right

Posted on May 15, 2024 by thezman

A regular feature of the internet age is the emergence of what is called a “new right” that is supposed to supplant the “old right.” This is largely due to the collapse of Buckley-style conservatism over the last twenty years. The assumption is that the failures of mainstream conservatism and its dwindling demographic must lead to its demise and its replacement by a new, more contemporary right. As a result, there have been a lot of hats thrown into the ring from alternative rights.

What may be emerging as the real threat to win the competition is something that has yet to name itself. The recent hit piece on the publisher of Passage Press, the group responsible for rehabilitating Steve Sailer, led to a gathering of online friends and acquaintances in support of the publisher. This is the online character known as Lomez, who has written for Claremont sites and has a big following on Twitter. He is part of a loose network of influencers that could be called the Cosmo Right.

That is the first place to start with understanding this collection of people emerging into a movement of sorts. They are cosmopolitan in the old bourgeois sense of the word, as they often live in or around the trendy cities. Maybe they went to a college that is near a trendy city or they worked at a company in a hipsterville. Maybe they just like to hang out in places like Austin. It is not so much about location when it comes to their cosmopolitanism, but their attitude.

These are people comfortable in and around the people David Brooks called bourgeois bohemians or Bobo’s. Brooks described them as highly educated people who enjoy the aesthetic of the creative world but pay for it by successfully maintaining a position in the competitive modern economy. Twenty years ago, when he wrote his book about these people, the Bobo’s were a white couple who lived in a gentrified part of the Five Burroughs but had jobs in Manhattan.

This potential new right that is forming up seems to be mostly people who have drifted in and out of that world. They come from generally upper middle-class backgrounds, went to college, and entered a profession. Finding the meritocratic world stifling and sterile, they have been looking around for something more fulfilling and that is not limited to their lifestyle. Their politics are the result of waking up from neoliberalism and then searching about for alternatives.

A representative example is the Blaze writer and commentator Auron MacIntyre, whose book The Total State reads like a personal journey out of the world of conventional politics into the wilderness of dissident politics. Instead of going down the usual rabbit holes which is so common when people get red-pilled on politics, he has maintained a foot in the world of conventional politics, often normalizing ideas that first gained traction in the shadows of dissident discourse.

This gets to the natural trendiness with this new scene. This new right is composed of people comfortable in a world that is often defined by trends, so they do not get swept up in whatever is happening at the moment. In other words, this is a conservatism of disposition, rather than of ideology. Scan the posts of the site IM1776 and you get a Russel Kirk vibe from it. The focus is not on a political agenda, but more on analysis and the proper positioning of politics with the personal.

This is also a millennial demographic. Zoomers get a lot of attention due to their shenanigans online and their skillful use of digital media, but this new scene is almost exclusive to people from the millennial cohort. Like the Zoomers, they come from the suburban middle-class, but unlike the Zoomers they went onto college and got jobs in the above ground economy. Their politics are the result of that experience in the world of practical things, rather than the internet fever swamps.

Another interesting and novel aspect is that this ad hoc collection of people can be described as post-national, post-racial and post-regional. They are all what Leonard Jeffries would call “ice people” but there is no emphasis on it. It is a lot like the old paleo-conservatism in that there are a lot of secular Jews and conservative Christians from mainstream sects. You also see a mix of people from different regions with a regional focus, but not exclusively so.

This is the new cosmopolitanism that may be the result of the demographic changes sweeping the Western world. The old racial categories no longer work because it is no longer a world of black and white. The majoritarian outlook no longer works as there is no longer a natural majority. The response to multiracial neoliberalism may be a cosmopolitan conservatism rooted in classical Western attitudes. The answer to the new Mercurians will be new Apollonians.

There is also the fact that it is young and educated. These are not people with warmed over political agendas from the past, but young, educated men reexamining the past for the foundations of a new political foundation. That means it is less a political agenda than a cultural movement. There is a cool factor growing up around these people on social media, which brings in new voices and new ideas. That gives this new scene a vitality missing from prior new right initiatives.

Of course, this could just be another ripple in the river that is the political in the mass media age. This is not the first effort at creating an alternative to the shuffling husk that is Buckley-style conservatism. The difference here is that this emerging new subculture is not a deliberate creation. Unlike Hazony’s newfangled nationalism, the Cosmo-Right is an organic thing that is emerging gradually. Therefore, it may have more staying power because it is not built to replace anything.

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