The Farce Of Europe

Posted on January 18, 2023 by thezman

Big events reveal things that may have been in plain sight for a while, but they remained hidden for cultural or political reasons. The mortgage crisis of 2008 is a good example of something that was hidden in plain sight. The sub-prime corruption should have been obvious, but few people saw it. When the system started to lock up, everyone suddenly noticed the massive corruption. The signs were there for a long time, but it was the fear of collapse that forced everyone to face it.

We are seeing an example of this with the war in Ukraine. Europe has been a land run by ridiculous people for a long time, but it was concealed by tradition and the Global American Empire pretending that European “leaders” are serious people. The war has revealed that Europe is a farce. It is not a collection of countries operating in concert for the common good. It is a collection of territories of the Global American Empire run by provincial clodhoppers with no real power.

Baiting the Russians into war served no European interests. It is obviously bad for the people of Europe. There is nothing to be gained for them by this war. It is wrecking the economy and reducing the standard of living. It is not good for European business, which now finds itself uncompetitive due to the costs of war. Germany is now on a short path to de-industrialization. Given that the German economy is the heart of the European economy, this will harm all of Europe.

The war is proving disastrous for the political class as well. Unlike the United States, there is no big sprawling military industrial complex in these countries. They have some boutique industries, but nothing like the American arms industry. That means there are not great profits to be had, which can be used to bribe the political class. Instead, the stockpiles of Europe are being stripped by NATO to supply Ukraine, while EU politicians pretend to be leading the effort.

If the European political class existed as anything more than a carnival act, they would have told Washington to pound sand and made a deal with the Russians long before this war in Ukraine could get started. In fairness, Angel Merkel pretended to be doing that in 2014, but that was just a con run by Washington. She has since admitted that she was lying to the Russians to buy time for Washington to arm and train the Ukrainian military for a war with the Russians.

Merkel was the most important “leader’ in Europe and she was nothing more than a toady for the Global American Empire. That right there speaks to the impotence of the European political class. This is why the Kremlin does not bother to take the calls of European “leaders” anymore. What is the point? A state governor in America has more sovereign authority that a European leader. If Ron DeSantis called Putin, Putin would take the call because DeSantis has real power.

The fact is “Europe” is just an economic zone heading for the abyss because the plans of Washington require it. American politicians are happy to get those checks from the oil and gas industry, which is getting fat selling LNG to Europe. The American war machine is happy to use Ukraine as a testing ground. If the Europeans have to reduce their lifestyle, well, that is tough luck for them. The people in charge have bigger issues than the welfare of the territory called Europe.

The fact is, Europe is dead and it has been dead for a long time. None of the EU states is a sovereign country. The national governments do not control their currency, which is a prerequisite for sovereignty. Their budgets must be approved by Brussels, which sets most regulatory policy for the bloc. These “countries” no longer control their borders in any meaningful way. The EU controls the flow of people by the farcical rules set up to deal with refugees from the global south.

A country that does not control its money, its laws or its borders is not a country, so it has no need for serious national leaders. This is why the political class of Europe has become increasingly comical over the last decades. It is the same reason that American mayors, especially in small cities, tend to be eccentric. A mayor has limited powers and mostly performs symbolic acts. That is the definition of a European leader. They have no real power, but they need to perform for the public.

It is not just the continent. Britain has become a floating carny act as well. Does anyone know the name of the current Prime Minister? Would anyone be shocked if the White House did not know his name? Why would they? That role has been reduced to an administrative post. The proof of that is Washington is planning to send Boris Johnson to Ukraine to deliver the latest instructions. Maybe they think Boris is still in charge or, most likely, they know who is really in charge.

The sad fact is the Global American Empire spent the last half century turning Europe into a giant outdoor theme park. It draws in tourists to gaze at its long lost glory and it soaks up American cultural items. Walk through a mall in Europe and you hear hip-hop music and see NBA jersey on display. The European culture that tourists want to see is locked up in museums, while the real European culture is as vulgar and degenerate as the rest of the Global American Empire.

In this excellent post by Gilbert Doctorow, he explains how this proxy war with the West is redefining Russia as a nation. Wars often define countries. The two industrial wars of the 20th century changed America from a republic to a global empire. Wars can also destroy countries. This is what happened with Europe. Those two wars plus the Cold War drained the vitality from Europe, reducing it to an economic zone, a dependency of the Global American Empire. That is obvious now.

The hope for Europe is that this reality is made so clear by Washington’s war on Russia that the farce can no longer be maintained. Perhaps some elements of the European political class grow tired of the humiliations they must endure and seek to regain their nations from the clutches of Washington. Perhaps the cost of war loosens the grip of Washington on the empire. Otherwise, that grip will squeeze what little life remains in Europe and the lights go out forever.

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War Lessons

Posted on January 11, 2023 by thezman

Most likely, the first war in human history was one group of guys rushing at another group of guys, swinging fists and anything they could use as a club. It did not take long before a man decided that it was a good idea to use his hunting weapons to ward off these attacks or compliment these attacks. After all, if a gang of men with spears could take down a large animal, the same tactics would work on humans. From there the arms race was on among the human species.

The club was probably the first weapon of war. The spear would be the first tool converted for use in war. The shield was the first tool of war created specifically for use in combat against other men. Unlike the club, the shield was not just lying around waiting for a man to use it in a fight. Unlike the spear, the shield was not something used for hunting. The shield was a practical response to men using their spears to poke at you in a fight. It was the dawn of the arms industry.

We have no way of knowing if any of that is true. The first men were not big on writing stuff down so we are left to speculate. Maybe the crazies are right and people are naturally peaceful until a weapon is introduced. Some guy brought his spear to the clan meeting and this caused the clans to break out into warfare. Perhaps humans were vegetarians, eating what they could find until one guy picked up a stick and then immediately decided to start beating people with it.

Putting that aside, the history of war has been one side finding new ways to get around opposing defenses, while the other side finds new ways to block or reduce the weapons the other side is using. We are seeing this in Ukraine as the Russians work through the puzzle that is the Ukrainian defense network. For close to a decade the United States worked with Ukraine on their tactics, defenses and training. The Ukrainians were as ready as they could be for this war.

One of the first problems the Russians faced was the well designed Ukrainian air defense system. This was a carry over from the Soviet days. During the Cold War, the Russians planned to defend themselves against superior American airplanes, so they designed advanced air defense systems. These things are always hotly debated, but the consensus is that the Russians are the best in the world at building surface-to-air missile systems for defending against planes and missiles.

Of course, this was the same problem presented to NATO. The Russians have even better air defense systems than the Ukrainians. They can take out the best aircraft from great distances. This is why the Pentagon was adamantly against imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine. Losing billion dollar aircraft on a daily basis is a good way to lose popular support for a proxy war. It is also why there was never any thought about training Ukrainian pilots on the F-35.

That is the first lesson of this war. Outside of asymmetric wars, like America attacking a weak country, manned combat aircraft is becoming obsolete. Surface-to-air missile systems are reaching the stage where they can defeat the best manned aircraft at pennies on the dollar. If you can take out a billion dollar plane with a million dollar missile, it is not going to take long before the other side stops using their billion dollar planes to attack you.

That is another lesson of the war. Wars between peers are about economics, not flashy displays of technological prowess. Each side must try to reduce the per unit cost of destroying the opponents assets and defending its own assets. Assuming equal number of assets at the start, the game becomes a contest of efficiency. The side that can run the war most cost effectively wins. We are seeing that in Ukraine as the frugal Russians grind down the extravagantly financed Ukrainians.

That brings up another lesson of this war. The vaunted American military industrial complex is being revealed to be a bigger fraud than suspected. Last summer, Alex Vershinin pointed out the problems in the Western military industrial capacity versus that of the Russians. He concluded that the West simply lacked the industrial capacity to wage this war. In December Brian Berletic did a similar post on this topic, which had been covered in the Washington Post and Financial Times.

The United States has spent roughly a trillion dollars per year on weapons but there is not enough stock to last a year in a real war. Even if there is a shift toward ramping up production, it will take years to match the Russians and Chinese. In some cases, the ability to make the stuff has been lost. Once the contract with the military was fulfilled, the men and facilities to make the stuff was repurposed. For those cases it means starting production from scratch.

It actually is worse than anyone is letting on. The Pentagon refuses to consider supplying Ukraine with Abrams tanks. One reason is it takes a year to train a crew to competently operate the thing. The main reason, however, is these tanks are extremely fragile outside of optimum environments. Their size and complexity require a massive supply chain to keep the things running. That is great for the contractors, but it is an enormous liability for an army at war.

Probably the biggest lesson thus far is that drones are changing the battlefield in ways no one anticipated. Faced with massive defense works, the Russians were reduced to using their artillery advantage to pound the Ukrainians. Cheap drone technology has allowed them to efficiently target enemy positions and selectively hunt for opposing machines using inexpensive weapons. The cheap drone is not only a new weapon on the battlefield it is a force multiplier.

Of course, the biggest lesson is that fighting in your backyard is much easier than fighting across the sea. The Russians have short tight supply lines because Ukraine is right on her border. The Ukrainians, reliant on American money and material, have supply lines stretched thin. Those donated tanks and artillery pieces have to be shipped to Poland to be repaired. Another lesson of this war is that supply chain is as important as the weapons and ammunition it supplies.

Whether anyone in the West is learning anything from this is hard to know, but most likely the corruption is so thick that none of this is making sense to them. Making billion dollar jet fighters is much more fun and profitable than producing cheap drone technology or building better field artillery. If these lessons will be learned at all it will be in a colossal failure in the Pacific. That seems to be where the military industrial complex is determined to meet its fate.

An Orgy Of Self-Satisfaction

Posted on December 22, 2022 by thezman

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A common theme on this side of the great divide is the growing perception gap between the people in the regime that rules over the Global American Empire and the people who are trapped inside that empire. The relationship between the ruled and their rulers is becoming two black boxes. The people see their rulers perform, but why they are doing what they are doing makes little sense. The rulers look over the walls and see nothing but monsters lying in wait for them.

This growing disconnect was on display in the Imperial Capital, when the dictator of Ukraine arrived to a hero’s welcome. Dictator is not a word the regime members use, even though it is the correct title. Zelensky rules with an iron fist, throwing critics into dungeons and terrorizing the people into submission. The excuse is the war, but democratic countries still hold elections in times of crisis. Tyrants suspend the rule of law when it suits their interests.

For most Americans, Ukraine is a weird place far away that has no bearing on their lives, because it should have no bearing on their lives. Most Americans feel for the common people whose lives are ruined by the war. Most American would prefer it if their government did something to end the conflict. In fact, it is safe to say that Americans wish their government were the global peacemaker. That would be something that could genuinely unite a very divided country.

Otherwise, the typical American has no interest in this war. If provided the facts, they would be appalled at the actions of their government. The Ukrainians took delivery of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) from American and immediately used them to target residential areas of the Donbas. War is always an ugly business and brother wars are the worst in this regard. Even so, the typical American would want nothing to do with the deliberate targeting of civilians.

The fact is, the typical American, regardless of political affiliation, would wholeheartedly agree with John Quincy Adams when he said “Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions, and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”

Anyone living in the world of normal Americans knows this. Despite this, the regime put on a prime time show in which the dictator of Ukraine, dressed like an extra from bad war movie, gave a weird speech to Congress. In that speech he demanded more money from the average American and gave the strong impression that he thinks the average American is not pulling his weight in terms of sacrificing for a country he cannot locate on a map.

What made the spectacle grotesque was the fawning over this belligerent midget by the regime leaders. It was a vulgar display of the disconnect that now exists between the regime and the people. Mitch McConnell came out and said that his number one priority, to the exclusion of all else, is shoveling untold billions into the rat hole that is the war in Ukraine. Imagine being a guy struggling to pay his rent in Kentucky having to listen to that lecture.

What makes the whole thing revolting to the average person is that everyone knows much of the money is being stolen. Even though the FBI has been working long hours to suppress the facts of the Hunter Biden laptop, the typical American knows the Biden family is as crooked as a ram’s horn. They know all of these people are corrupt, yet they have to watch these people celebrate their alleged moral purity over shoveling more cash into the Ukraine money laundering machine.

In other words, the growing gap between the regime and the people is not simply a gap in understanding or a gap in priorities. It is a moral gap. Every day the people inside the regime imagine themselves on higher moral ground than the day before, while the people looking on see their leaders sinking into a swamp of moral depravity. It is not just that there is a gap, but that the gap is rapidly widening. Each new outrage by the freaks of the regime lowers their standing with the people.

Few commentators have noticed the parallel between Washington’s support for Ukraine and the support for Vietnam sixty years ago. It is a good comparison because the cause is the same. The people running Vietnam policy were every bit as deluded about their intelligence as the people running Ukraine policy. In fact, Victoria Nuland and the rest of the Kagan cult are setting new standards for Dunning-Kruger. Mx. Nuland is an unfathomably stupid woman.

The important parallel is deeper than just shared stupidity. Vietnam undermined the trust people had in their rulers to the point where serious people became concerned that the country was headed for a breakup. That was in a relatively homogenous and prosperous country. Today’s America is an irreconcilable collection of fractious and deracinated people with no reason to hang together other than convenience and fear of an increasingly hostile ruling class.

If the economic chickens come home to roost in 2023 as the economic experts tell us, this erosion of trust and respect for the regime will quickly become a crisis. People may look back at this shameful orgy of self-satisfaction, at the expense of the people, as a tipping point in the relationship between the regime and the people. Watching that show, it would take a heart of stone not to hate these people. It was the point when even the most faithful civic nationalist began to hate.

The Murder Itself Phase

Posted on December 14, 2022 by thezman

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A year ago, when the Russians began to assemble forces along the Russia – Ukraine border, Western planners were sure that whatever the Russians were planning could only last a few months. They simply lacked the resources to put an army in the field, especially against a heavily defended opponent, for a long time. The Western response to the Russian advance into Ukraine was predicated on this. By now, the war should have been over due to a Russian withdrawal.

This short time frame thinking is clear in the economic sanctions that were levied against Russia when the war started. It did not require an advanced degree in economics to see that these sanctions would hurt the West. Cutting off a critical vendor has to have a negative impact. Western countries basically went to war with their most important supplier of energy. They were willing to do this because the war would be short and Russia would surrender to the West.

On its face this always looked like a crazy decision, but it was based on two assumptions that have turned out to be even nuttier. The first assumption was that Russia was nothing but a giant gas station run by drunken peasants. Western economic sanctions would send the country into economic turmoil and those drunken peasants would quickly revolt against their stupid rulers. Back in the spring, predictions like this were placed all over Western media.

The second assumption was that China and India would eagerly jump aboard the sanctions train. This has turned out to be the biggest error. China and India have not only refused to join the sanctions regime, but they have also moved closer to Russia and are now integral partners in the anti-Western bloc. More critically, OPEC+ has also moved closer to both Russia and China. Saudi Arabia recently signed critical deals with China, despite Western pressure to the contrary.

These horrible blunders by Western planners have resulted in a long brutal war on the doorstep of Europe. The Russians have slowly reconfigured their systems for a long war, both economic and military. On the battlefield, they are relentlessly pounding Ukrainian positions while minimizing their casualties. The battle for Bakhmut, for example, is being called a meat grinder. The Ukrainians are losing a thousand men a day defending this one place in the Donbas.

No one in the West cares at all about the lives of Ukrainians, but they have to care about the growing economic cost to the West. In parts of Europe, energy costs are five times higher now than before the war. An economic system based on cheap energy is not going to hold for long when the energy costs start to rise. Europe is just at the beginning of this energy crisis, with 2023 promising even bigger price hikes. How much longer before this spills into the political arena?

People who have seen the battle space in this war have described it as something like the trench warfare of the Great War. The Ukrainian army is dug into massive fortifications, surrounded by trench systems. In places like Bakhmut, two thousand artillery shells a day will fall on the defenders. The defenders fire back, but their artillery lacks the range of Russian systems. Even so, much of the fighting is the sort of artillery duels that were common in the Great War.

There is another parallel between the two wars. There is no path forward for a negotiated end to the fighting. In the Great War, both sides were locked into a mode of thought that prevented the necessary compromises. For both sides, the war became an end in itself. Something similar seems to have gripped the West, which has categorically ruled out a negotiated settlement. Repeatedly, Western leaders have declared there can only be one result – total victory.

As if to make sure the Russians also forgo all hope of a negotiated settlement, the West sent former German chancellor Angela Merkel out to tell the world that her prior dealings with Russia were a trick to buy the Ukrainians time. Until that interview, Merkel was one of a few Western leaders Russia thought she could trust. Now they must assume that they can trust nothing from the West. Therefore, Russia can never expect to get a deal from the West at the bargaining table.

All of this leads to another important comparison between this global conflict and the Great War a century ago. A century ago, the British Empire was effectively destroyed by the totally unnecessary war in Europe. Something similar may be waiting for the Global American Empire in this war. Instead of surrounding Russia with enemies, the war will end with the West being surrounded by a league of regional powers committed to defending themselves from color revolutions.

The question that must follow is can the economic and political model of the Global American Empire survive when it is confined to a minority of the world? The West is a little more than a tenth of the global population. How will the GAE function if the EU is in economic ruins? Can the petrodollar survive if the largest energy producers are comfortable dealing in alternative currencies? These are questions that get to the core logic of the American empire.

Perhaps what we are seeing is the same thing that happened to the British Empire at the start of the last century. The Global American Empire is not dying because it has run its course, but because it is run by stupid people who keep making critical errors in vitally important areas of imperial business. Adams famously said of democracy that it “wastes, exhausts, and murders itself.” Perhaps this is true of democratic empires and America is now in the murder itself phase.

The Diem Option

Posted on November 30, 2022 by thezman

In the autumn of 1963, the Kennedy administration was made aware of a plot against the president of South Vietnam, Ngo Dinh Diem. There had been growing unhappiness within the elite of South Vietnam over his handling of the Buddhist crisis and the Viet Cong insurgency. Earlier in the year a plot had been hatched by junior officers, but it had been suppressed. This new plot had the support of the generals.

Unhappy with Diem’s leadership, the Kennedy administration, upon learning of the pending coup, sent a cable to the American ambassador in Vietnam, Henry Cabot Lodge, instructing him to inform Diem of their unhappiness with him and to let the generals know that they would not intervene in a coup attempt. This, in effect, gave Washington’s stamp of approval to the plot.

On November 1, 1963, the coup was launched, led by General Duong Van Minh, the senior general in the army and the main coup plotter. Diem’s loyalists were quickly scooped up by the army and then Diem and his brother were arrested. Instead of just deposing him, which was the plan communicated to the American government, both were executed in the back of an America armored personnel carrier.

The reason that this long forgotten bit of 20th century trivial still matters is it led directly to what Americans refer to as the Vietnam War. Instead of realizing that they had no idea what they were doing in that part of the world, the Kennedy administration plunged the country into a guerilla war in Asia. The result was a calamity for both the military and the political class of the United States.

In one of life’s great ironies, the people who cut their political teeth in the domestic revolts over the Vietnam War now find themselves in the same situation. This time they are the people in charge and the client state is Ukraine. Similar to 60 years ago, the American government has to deal with an erratic and reckless leader who may not be long for this world. That leader is Volodymyr Zelensky.

Contrary to all of the happy talk in Western media, the proxy war against Russia is not going well for the West. On the battlefield, the Russians are slowly grinding down the Ukrainian army, which has become a blackhole for Western arms. Everyone is waiting for the winter offensive that the Russians have been planning for months. This promises to put the Ukrainian army in an even more difficult position.

The Russians are also systematically dismantling the infrastructure of Ukraine with waves of missile and drone strikes. The Ukrainians have no way to defend against these attacks and contrary to the predictions of Western planners, the Russians are no where near running out of missiles. If anything, it appears they have ramped up their production of missiles and drones.

This promises to unleash a humanitarian disaster on the rest of Europe as Ukrainians flee the collapse of their country. Current estimates say that as many as eight million Ukrainians could make their way to Europe this winter. Europe is teetering on the abyss economically because of soaring energy and food costs, so waves of migrants from Ukraine could not come at a worse time.

This is where the Zelensky – Diem comparison comes into play. Like Diem, Zelensky is becoming a serious problem for Washington. They built him into a folk hero who must be supported at all costs. The trouble is Zelensky is a loose cannon who seems to be hell bent on escalating the war. The most recent example is the Ukrainian missile that landed in Poland. Zelensky still insists it was the Russians.

To make matters worse, Zelensky has surrounded himself with ultranationalist and Bandera fanatics. Even if Washington could find a way to have him agree to negotiations, the fanatics would probably kill him. Zelensky understands this perfectly well, which is why he continues with the overheated rhetoric. There is only one way out for him and that is getting NATO directly involved in the war.

This is an impossibility for Washington. The military sees that the foreign policy establishment badly miscalculated. There is zero appetite for getting involved in a war for which NATO is clearly not prepared. Compounding it is a growing Ukraine fatigue around the West, as the cost of this debacle begins to bite. Not only is there no appetite for escalation, but everyone is also growing tired of Zelensky and Ukraine.

This is where the Diem solution could become an attractive option. If something unfortunate were to happen to Zelensky, then that would solve a lot of problems for Washington and the collective West. They would be free of this folk hero they created and maybe have a villain on whom they could blame the defeat. Those nationalists around Zelensky would be easy to characterize as the bad guys.

It may seem a bit farfetched given the way in which the collective West has behaved over the last year, but they have no better options. Russian public opinion has shifted steadily against negotiations. The pressure on Putin to unleash the full fury of the Russian war machine on Ukraine grows daily. The destruction of the Ukraine energy grid is just the beginning of what lies ahead this winter.

This means the West has two options at this point. One is to find a way to keep Ukraine going as a civil society, which will cost hundreds of billions. This may not even be possible, given the complexity of the problem. The other is to accept the inevitable collapse of Ukraine, millions of refugees flooding into Europe and a total defeat of the Ukrainian army. In other words, the West can bleed to death or commit suicide.

That is why Zelensky will have to go and go soon. It offers a third way out of this problem that allows everyone to save face. Washington can blame the fanatics for his demise and the collapse of Ukraine. The Europeans will be free to abandon the ruinous sanctions regime. Worst case scenario Russia installs a new government. Best case scenario Russia is stuck with a failed state and thousands of armed lunatics.

Whether or not there is anyone in Washington smart enough to understand what is happening is hard to know. It may be left to the Europeans to save Washington from itself or maybe the Ukrainians make the same error as the Vietnamese. At some point someone with the power to make it happen is going to figure out that the way out of this quagmire is to get rid of Zelensky.

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Some Regimeology

Posted on October 26, 2022 by thezman

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Regimeology is a concept that needs much broader interest, as it is becoming an essential tool to understanding the current age. As the regime blacks out its windows and boards up the exits, the only way to understand what is happening inside the black box that is the ruling elite is to analyze the actions and media statements to then tease out some explanation for what we can observe. Like Kremlinology, it is the only tool we have to understand what is happening inside the system.

We have something new to analyze. The so-called progressive caucus sent a letter to the White House and the senior members of the inner party suggesting they were not onboard with the Ukraine war. They were careful to not break with official dogma on the war, but they were signaling to their supporters that they may at some point begin to question Ukraine policy. It was a very tepid bit of pushback, but they made the letter public so their fans could see it.

The reason they did this is the antiwar left is freaking out about the war and the fact that no one in the party they support is opposing it. The Bernie Sanders wing is supposed to be opposed to these wars and the machine behind them. Yet in this case they are silently nodding along with the warmongers. A group of antiwar people ambushed Sandy Cortez at an event where she was spouting neocon lines about the war and the resulting video was a huge embarrassment for her.

It was a nice little peak inside how the regime uses the far left to manipulate the various tribes that make up the Democratic coalition. They let these people speak against regime policy as a pressure release, but the unwritten rule is they can never threaten to block regime policy. It is the same theater the outer party uses to keep conservatives showing up to the polls. The guys at Trump rallies wearing tricorn hats are not the only chumps exploited by this system.

The interesting bit here is how quickly the hammer came down. The Biden White House and senior party members held an emergency meeting and then threatened the progressive caucus with death if they did not recant. We do not know the exact nature of the threats, but the speed with which the apostates recanted and their groveling tone suggest genuine fear. Whatever was said to them was serious enough to have them groveling in public within hours.

Just in case anyone missed the point, the regime then sent Bernie Sanders out to chastise the progressives for being wrong. Sanders has spent his life railing against the military industrial complex. He has opposed every military action, even those sponsored by his party. Now he sounds like Bill Kristol after a few too many drinks. Bernie is not just supporting the war; he is supporting the war dogma behind it. He felt he needed to get that out into the public domain.

The old internet meme about knowing who is in charge by thinking about who you are not allowed to criticize works here. If you want to know what it is important to the regime, think about what cannot be questioned. It is clear that they will tolerate no dissent on Ukraine policy, not even from the people they use to manipulate the left-wing activist class. In other words, they are willing to lose the support of their activist base in order to defend their Ukraine policy.

This is why the outer party has been silent on the war. There is no support for the Ukraine war policy, so the opposition party should be waving this around as part of the argument against their opponents. Most Americans would like to see a negotiated settlement to a problem they do not think is our problem. Despite the overwhelming support for a moderate position, everyone in the outer party is just as extreme as everyone in the inner party.

The question is why has the ruling class pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table on this issue? Objectively it is a bad bet. Ukraine is a backward and deeply corrupt country with no real chance of winning this war. The only reason it has gone this far is some version of why Bolshevism succeeded. The old line was that communism was the result of Jewish brains, Latvian swords and Russian stupidity. This war is the product of neocon paranoia, American arms and Russian stupidity.

That may be one clue as to why Washington is obsessed with this war. It is the last stand for the post-Cold War consensus and the neocon place within it. A settlement with the Russians on Ukraine would lead to a settlement on many other issues, like the wars against Syria and Iran. If you can make a deal with the Russians in one area, then there is no reason to not make a deal in other areas. In other words, the neocons need Russia as the eternal enemy in order to exist.

Another possible reason is the general paranoia of the aging leadership. Old people in power naturally get suspicious of the next generation. Look around Washington and across the board you see ossified geezers locked in place. Rather than the paranoia of one or two fossils it is a culture of paranoia among a gerontocracy. The Ukraine war just happens to be the issue through which they are exercising their intolerance of dissent, but it could be any issue.

Of course, there is always graft. Hundreds of billions are flowing into what is now a giant money laundering operation. This is the bust out of all bust outs and every serious player in Washington is getting a taste. The only place more dangerous than the area between a principled conservative and money is the area between a committed progressive and the same pile of money. As the saying goes, never mess with a man’s money or his women. Got that Jack?

Regardless, it suggests that the regime sees this war as one they cannot afford to lose, much in the same way Washington viewed Vietnam fifty years ago. Back then, that worthless backwater was the hill to die on for reasons no one could explain, but no one was allowed to question until it was too late. It is ironic that a generation that was born in the protests against the Vietnam war is closing the show by making the same errors policy makers made with regards to Vietnam policy.

The Great Mistake

Posted on October 24, 2022 by thezman

Note: The Monday Taki post is up and this week I decided to change gears and write about a past hero of the cause. Sunday Thoughts was on break while I was away at a secret handshake meeting, but I have posted some travelogues. I will be posting some more detailed information about the event this week so if you do not have a subscription, get one. SubscribeStar and Substack.

Over the weekend news began to leak out about a series of calls between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his counterparts in Turkey, The United States, France and Great Britain. The purpose of these calls, reportedly initiated by the Russians, was to warn of the possible Ukrainian use of a radioactive bomb, a dirty, bomb, in the coming days or weeks. The point of the bomb was to escalate the war in order to force NATO to directly intervene in the conflict.

The Russians also reportedly said they had intelligence that the Ukrainians were getting help on this project from the British. It is largely assumed that it was the British that provided the intelligence and logistics to smuggle the truck bomb onto the Kerch Bridge two weeks ago. It is also assumed that the British helped the assassin with the murder of Alexander Dugin’s daughter. The British have been intimately involved with the war since the very beginning.

Interestingly, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace denied the claims but then quickly added that the Russians should not use this thing they deny is happening as a pretext for escalating the war. The American version of this bit of double-speak was almost identical, suggesting some level of cooperation. Given that various Biden administration officials have been claiming the Russians will use nukes on Ukraine, this has the look of the kid caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

Another clue about what is really going on is the fact that former CIA director General Petraeus has been sent on a public relations tour to prepare the media for the entry of American troops into Ukraine. Here he is three weeks ago talking about a hypothetical that no one considered plausible at the time. Here is a story about the 101st Airborne training in Poland for the purpose of joining the fighting in Ukraine. In other words, the narrative makers in the West have been hard at work.

Interestingly, the Ukrainians were not ready for their usual story telling and had to scramble in response to the Russian calls to the West. Zelensky does not do anything without permission from his Western advisors who are always in the room with him, so it would seem the Russians caught everyone by surprise, not only with the calls but with making sure they got into Western media. Zelensky then came out with the claim that the Russians planned to nuke themselves as a false flag.

One cannot help but detect a pattern with the false flag business. The Ukrainians claimed the Russians killed Dugin’s daughter as a false flag. They claimed the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines was a Russian false flag. They made the same claim about the Kerch Bridge and the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan, which is held by the Russians. Someone in the Zelensky media team has a bizarre obsession with this particular narrative structure.

Putting that aside, we have two competing stories. The Russians, who have repeatedly ruled out using nuclear weapons, but have been warning that this war could easily escalate to nuclear conflict, are saying that the Ukrainians are planning to use a dirty bomb and blame it on Russia. The West is saying they are totally innocent and it is the Russians who are planning to use a dirty bomb on themselves and then use that as an excuse to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

If you are inclined to believe what you hear from Washington and their media organs, you will want to accept their version of this story. If you are skeptical of the people who lie to you every day about the most trivial matters, then you are probably thinking that the Russians are telling the truth. It is impossible to know the truth at this point, but one should always leave open the possibility of a third option. Both sides could simply be psyoping one another on this issue.

Regardless of the truth, it reveals a serious problem for the West. They have pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table, betting on the prospects of a deeply corrupt country run by a narcissistic sociopath. The one thing everyone can agree upon is Zelensky is just an actor hired to play the role of president. This is the role of a lifetime for him and he has thrown himself into completely. Much now depends on the mood of an actor high on the attention of a global audience.

Tucker Carlson touched on this last week when he highlighted the absurd demands being made by Zelensky. This pint-sized potentate is calling Western media demanding that he be supplied hundreds of billions in aid. If an American mayor or governor made a tiny fraction of these demands he would be pilloried. It has somehow become completely normal for this nut to demand massive sacrifices from Western people in order to perpetuate a war with Russia.

This is not without president. America’s unconditional commitment to Israel has led to several disastrous wars against Islam. Officially, the Afghan war cost $2.3 trillion and the total bill for the neocon wars is $5.8 trillion. Not all of this can be laid at the feet of the Israelis, or the Saudis, who also played a role in these wars, but it is the danger that comes when large countries make open ended commitments to defend small countries in their wars with other countries.

The Founders strongly opposed these sorts of foreign commitments. Washington explained the danger of “entangling alliances” in his farewell address. John Quincy Adams echoed those same sentiments a generation later. When a nation considers another nation a friend, it inevitably takes on the friends and enemies of that nation, which inevitably warps the decision making of the country, putting the interests of foreigners ahead of the people.

It is important to remember that the last two European wars were due in large part to great powers aligning with minor powers. It is fair to argue that war with German was inevitable, but the British commitment to the Poles certainly guaranteed it. Western commitments to Ukraine look a lot like the same error. Nuclear war now hinges on the mood of an emotionally unstable circus performer. The so called great powers are now led around by a tiny corrupt backwater.

This will not end well.

The Political Vice

Posted on October 20, 2022 by thezman

The British oddsmakers are not giving new prime minister Liz Truss much of a chance to survive the year, putting the odds at 1-in-8. They are posting wagers on her probable replacement, which is a good sign they are confident they will have plenty of action in the near term. You can wager on just about anything in Britain but the point of posting odds is to attract action. If the oddsmakers are posting odds on the next prime minister it means there is a demand for it.

From an American perspective it is a bit amusing because of the over-the-top way in which the media talks about these things. It is like how British sports announcers turn a mundane sport like soccer into life and death drama. Every player heroically passes the ball to some other hero, who courageously passes it back. They are doing the same thing with the political squabbles within the Tory party. They are carrying on as if the island will flip over if they pick the wrong person.

The British are in political crisis because the people who actually run the country never forgave Boris Johnson for supporting Brexit. The fact is, the elites in Britain all wanted to be fully integrated into Europe. They loathed the very idea of Brexit and detested the people who supported it, which is the majority of the people. Just as everywhere else, British elites, and those who think they are elites, define themselves by the degree to which they hate the average subject.

The elites shoved old Boris over the side without thinking much about who would replace him because of another quirk of modern Western elites. They never think more than once move ahead when on the attack. When scheming to line their own pockets, they are masters of eight dimensional chess. When they get their feelings hurt, they tend to blindly and maliciously strike out while howling in pain. They never think about what happens after they get their revenge.

This is what is happening in Britain. They got revenge on old Boris, but then they had no suitable replacement, so they were stuck with Liz Truss. She is a simpleton, so this has quickly blown up on them. Now they have to find a way to push her over the edge and find a different empty suit to play the role of PM. The odds are the next person will be terrible and this will force new elections. The other party will be declared the winner and then the drama comes to an end.

The only reason this is interesting is that it will be a story we see all over the West in the coming months, even in America. The midterms are shaping up to be a disaster for the Democrats, so they will be forced to address their Joe Biden problem. He is not going to go quietly, because his handlers need him to stay. Joe Biden is a shuffling husk, but the people holding important jobs in the administration need him in the job so they can hold onto those important jobs. Dementia Joe is useful.

Regardless, the people who actually run Washington will conclude that they have a Joe Biden problem after the election. The trouble is the next in line makes Liz Truss sound like Cicero, so pushing Biden over the edge will just create new problems, but wounded animals do not think that far ahead. We could very well see a replay in Washington of what is happening in London. Biden is forced out for health reasons, then Harris is forced out because everyone remembers that she is an idiot.

Of course, as the political turmoil in the West heats up over the next year, the popular explanation will be that it is due to bad economics. Inflation, shortages, recession and energy prices will get the blame. You see this happening in Britain where inflation is getting blamed for the crisis. It is complete nonsense. The Bank of England is undermining the Tory government, not popular unrest. The Tories have no reason to care about public opinion. They do care about elite opinion.

That is the real source of the crisis that is slowly spreading in the West. In theory, government exists to exercise the will of the people. The “general will” is defined though the democratic process. The parties compete for support by offering up policies to address the issues the voters think are important. The Tories are in power because they supported Brexit and they implied they would do something about the problems that naturally stem from post-national cosmopolitan globalism.

There was never any chance of this happening because the people who actually run Britain never wanted those things. Those people are not subject to elections and have no concern for public opinion. That is the cause of the crisis. The political process and its results lie between public opinion and elite opinion. The two sides are natural opposites that operate like the jaws of a vice. As they close, the political process is squeezed until it eventually bursts.

The fact is the West has reached a point where we cannot have both an avaricious ruling elite and a prosperous middleclass. Either the elites are brought to heel and are subject to the political process or the middleclass collapses. The new world order is an effort to consolidate power and impoverish the population. Populism and various forms of nationalism are middleclass efforts to fight back against elites. The West is now entering the survival stage of liberal democracy.

It is tempting to think that numbers matter and the people will eventually win out and bring their elites under control. Covid should disabuse anyone of that notion, as it is clear that most people would rather die than speak out against the most humiliating abuses of the elites. If you can make people wear their underwear around their heads, you can make them do anything. Of course, an elite willing to mutilate children is never going to be susceptible to appeals to their humanity.

On the other hand, no one was really at risk during Covid. People got sick but people always get stick from something. Covid policies did not put the general wellbeing in danger, at least not right away. When people are worried about paying their rent or keeping the doors of their business open, they stop worrying so much about offending the sensibilities of rich people. Western people seem to accept no limits on their humiliation, but maybe there is a limit.

Regardless, the West is clearly entering a crisis phase. Unlike past crises in Greece, Spain or Italy, this one is occurring in the heart of the West. People expect political turmoil in Italy, but not in Britain. People expect the Spanish economy to be on the edge of the abyss, but not the German economy. Washington is supposed to be the same regardless of the party in power. This crisis is in the core of what made the post-Cold War order possible. Soon, all of it will be up for debate.

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Surf & Turf

Posted on October 18, 2022 by thezman

Since ancient times, the great civilizations have been divided into two distinct categories, land powers and sea powers. The best example is the rivalry between Athens and Sparta that culminated in the Peloponnesian wars. The Peloponnesian League was led by Sparta, the dominant land power. The Delian League was led by Athens, the dominant sea power. The great ancient conflict still casts a shadow over the West because the dynamic is still with us.

To be a great sea power requires different human capital than what is required of a land power, which makes them cultural opposites. As a result, they look at war differently and they fight their wars for different reasons. Sea powers tend to be driven by profit while land powers tend to be driven by cultural forces. Culture and economics play a role for both, but the priorities tend to be reversed. The sea power is moved to act by money while the land power is moved by cultural issues.

The Athenians were arguably the first financial empire. They built their power through shrewd business relations with the other city-states. The alliances that were established to fight the Persians quickly became a business for Athens. They provided security while their “allies” provided money and men for the ships. Their aggression toward the other city-states was driven by opportunities for trade and profit. The Athenian empire was as much about business as Athenian culture.

The Spartans, on the other hand, were not driven by profit. Their willingness to join the rest of Greece against the Persians was purely in defense. When the Athenians wanted to take the fight to the Persians after the Greeks had successfully driven the Persians back across the sea, the Spartans were not interested. Their eventual war with the Athenians was purely defensive from their point of view. It is probably why they chose not to obliterate Athens after they won the war.

We see the same dynamic today. The Global American Empire is the new Delian League, spreading democracy to the world at gun point. The Russian Federation is the new Peloponnesian League. The Cold War was often cast the same way, but it did not work as an analogy. The communists were just as obsessed with spreading their form of utopian politics as the West. This time it works as the Russians are at war with an ideological and financial empire.

The clash of cultures is clear. The GAE just assumed the Russians would do what the GAE always does in war, which is systematically destroy the civilization of the opposing culture with air power. The West is still puzzled as to why the Russians never unleashed shock and awe at the start of the war. Further, the West concluded that the incremental approach was due to a lack of resources. The GAE is a sea power so it thinks like a sea power and fights like one as well.

The Russian Federation is a land power, so putting on a big symbolic light show to start a war makes no sense to them. Sea powers move like the sea, while land powers move like the land, slowly and incrementally. This is why the Russians had not bothered to put together a public relations campaign for the West. They saw no point in it as their purpose was to force the Ukrainians to submit. That happens at the bargaining table and on the battlefield, not on Twitter.

Another contrast in the two sides is in the weapons. The Russian have the best air defenses in the world. They have the best artillery in the world. The GAE has the best air force in the world and the best navy in the world. This contrast is due to the assumptions of both sides. The Russians assume their great wars will be defensive while the GAE assumes its great wars will be offensive. The two contrasting worldviews results in two entirely different military postures.

This contrast in warfighting is turning up in the weapons. Land powers assume long wars of attrition so they plan accordingly. That means squeezing the maximum from the resources available. The Russians are famous for making cheap, reliable weapons that can be used by anyone. The Kalashnikov is the prime example. The new drones the Russians are now using follow the same pattern. They are cheap, easy to operate and extremely effective against enemy targets.

Sea powers have to assume short wars. You can only keep a fleet at sea for so long so you have to inflict maximum damage up front. A naval battle is not going to last months like a land battle, so you need to prepare for the short haul. In the old days, ships were expensive, complex weapons. Today, the jet fighter is the cutting edge of technology and human organization. All of America’s best weapons are complex systems that require lots of training to utilize.

The flip side of the time preference aspect is that sea powers can take a loss and bounce back quickly, while land powers take time to recover. The GAE suffered a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, but quickly shook it off. The loss in Vietnam stung for a few years, but then the war machine was back in business. In contrast, the Russians needed decades to overcome the failure in Afghanistan. It has only been in the last decade that they have moved past it.

What that means for the Ukraine is that barring a collapse of the EU or the global financial system, the GAE will shake of this failure too. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be ignored and the GAE will turn its sights to some new opponent. Land powers must always be on defense, because it is their nature. Sea power must always be on offense, because it is their nature. That means when one war ends a new war must start, regardless of how the prior war ended.

Dr. Strange Biden

Posted on October 17, 2022 by thezman

Note: In case you missed it, the long awaited release of my talk with Greg Hood of American Renaissance has finally arrived. You can listen to it here. The Monday Taki post is up and the topic is clowns. Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door along with other postings. SubscribeStar and Substack.

Is the Biden administration planning to use tactical nuclear weapons against the Russians in defense of Ukraine? It should be unthinkable but we live in an age in which the most offensive and absurd is celebrated, so we can no longer assume anything, no matter how monstrous, is beyond the pale. The bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines was an outlandish act of provocation, so we cannot assume there is anyone in the admiration on the side of restraint.

The first clue that the Biden people are talking about the use of nuclear weapons is their endless talking about the use of nuclear weapons. For months they have been talking about it, in the context of the Russians threatening to use nukes. The trouble is, the Russians have never threatened to use nuclear weapons. Western media keeps making this claim, but an examination of the record shows that Russian officials have repeatedly said the exact opposite.

It is a well known aspect of regime psychology to project what they are doing or plotting onto some enemy of the regime. In 2016 we got the Russian collusion hoax in which Trump was accused of plotting with foreigners to rig the election. What we eventually learned is that it was the regime that was working with foreign intelligence services to not only rig the election but undermine the Trump administration. The opposite rule is an iron law of understanding regime behavior.

There is also the fact that Russian nuclear doctrine does not include tactical use of nuclear weapons in the battlefield. They have tactical nuclear weapons, but Russian nuclear doctrine has always been rooted in deterrence. Their nuclear arsenal is designed as a deterrent against any use of nuclear weapons. In the Cold War they took mutually assured destruction seriously. It is the West that has the weapons and doctrine for the limited nuclear war scenario.

Recent actions in the Ukraine make clear that the Russian plan is to rely on conventional forces to finish off the Ukrainian army. Despite Covid-like narratives in Western media, the Ukrainians have not been winning. Their army has been slowly and methodically depleted. This next phase aimed at making it more difficult for Ukraine to function at all will be followed by fresh offensives. This time there will be a quarter million fresh Russian troops, rather than militias.

It is clear that the Russians see a path to victory using their conventional army and the facts on the ground support that view. The Ukrainians are acknowledging this, which is why Zelensky has been sounding the alarm in calls to Western media. The point is, there is no reason to think the Russians are even thinking about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but the Biden administration keeps talking about it as if it is something they think about all the time.

There is another bit of projection at work. The West has said from the start that Putin cannot afford to change course in Ukraine. Even while the Russians were negotiating with the Ukrainians at the start of the war, the claim from the Biden administration was that Putin had no reverse gear. Again, the opposite rule seems to be at work here as the Biden administration has repeatedly said that they will never make a deal with Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Further, the Biden administration has been repeatedly asked about the limits on supporting Ukraine and the answer is there are no limits. Hundreds of billions have been spent on this project already. Biden was given a blank check to send weapons, contractors and support. The administration has repeatedly said that they are willing to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. In other words, the only option they will accept is the total defeat of Russia.

This leaves the administration little room to maneuver. If their goal in this war is the total defeat of Russia and they will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to accomplish it, then it is the regime that has no reverse gear. If the fortunes of Ukraine continue on the current path, Zelensky will be faced with surrender or abdication. The West is quickly approaching a crossroads with Ukraine. Do they continue to throw good money after bad or do they find some other option?

As it stands, there are three options. One is to strike a deal with the Russians, which will be on their terms as far as Ukraine is concerned. The second is to abandon Ukraine entirely and let the Russians sort it out after their victory. The third is some sort of game changer that resets the war in favor of the West. Something like a small nuclear bomb smuggled into the Crimea could be such an answer. After all, the West did smuggle a truck bomb onto the Kerch bridge.

When you reduce it all down, the West has given itself just three options, nuclear war, forever war and capitulation. If the third option is off the table and the second option is failing, then the nuclear option is what we have left. Perhaps the reason Joe Biden keeps babbling about nuclear Armageddon is that the people running this war keep talking about using nuclear weapons in his presence. Past regime practice suggests this it at least a possibility.

From the perspective of the people running this war, the nuclear option may make more sense now than a year ago. They have poured massive amounts of arms into Ukraine and launched an unprecedented economic war on Russia. The response from the Russians has been pretty much nothing. Then you have the assassination of Dugin’s daughter, the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines and the bombing of the Kerch bridge in the Crimea. Russia did nothing in response.

The regime may look at this and conclude they can roll the dice with a tactical nuke into the Russian lines or maybe aimed at the Black Sea fleet. Maybe this would be another red line that was not a red line after all. Alternatively, the use of a nuke would cause the Russians to mobilize their nuclear arsenal and that would be the pretext for a first strike on Russia by the West. This is a well known tactic of the West. They cry out in pain as they strike and use that as a reason to strike again.

Again, it sounds insane, but giving the government the right to mutilate children in the name of transgenderism is just as insane. A regime that is willing to torture children is not going to draw the line at launching nukes. Just as they can spin tales about the ghost of Kiev, they can create a scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons only kills Russians and Europeans. After all, that would then be a tremendous opportunity to build back better and begin the post-post-Cold War era.

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